E Crime Symposium June 10

1. Situation normal, everything must change

2. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

3. Pain

4. Pain No. Slides

5. Pain 20 slides OK No. Slides

6. 246 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides

7. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/

8. Cloud?

9. Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time. Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches. Definition of Cloud Computing: Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models. Essential Characteristics: On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s provider. Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs). Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines. Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time. Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service. Service Models: Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings. Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations. Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls). Deployment Models: Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services. Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.

10. Point 1 Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm.

11. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

12. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

13. “The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is betting their companies on” Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer

14. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

15. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

16. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it everybody else is. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

17. “open up exciting new prospects for the employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure fantasy only ﬁve year ago”

18. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966

19. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/radioﬂyer007/ /upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg http:/

20. http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png

21. Computer Utility Cloud Computing

22. Change

23. Change Why now?

24. Change Why now? Beneﬁts & Risk

25. Change Why now? Beneﬁts & Risk General

26. Change Why now? Beneﬁts & Risk General Managing Change

27. Ubiquity

28. Ubiquity Certainty

29. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty

30. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty

31. Ubiquity Innovation Certainty

32. Ubiquity Commodity Certainty

33. Ubiquity Innovation of early lists, 1980. Certainty

34. Ubiquity Custom built, DB Marketing Mid 80s Certainty

35. Ubiquity Product Early 90s Certainty

36. Utility Services Ubiquity of Salesforce Certainty

37. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty

38. Ubiquity Innovation of Z3, 1941 Certainty

39. Ubiquity Custom Built LEO, 1946 Certainty

40. Ubiquity Products IBM 650, 1954 Certainty

41. Ubiquity Commodity Hardware Certainty

42. Utility services Ubiquity of Amazon EC2 Certainty

43. Ubiquity Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821 Certainty

44. Ubiquity Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty

45. Utility Services Ubiquity of the National Grid Certainty

46. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty

47. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty

48. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/privatenobby

49. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/billege

50. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/billege/

51. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Certainty

53. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mush2274

54. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mush2274/

55. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Improvement (supply competition) Certainty

56. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d m m Co Improvement (supply competition) Certainty

59. Ubiquity Widespread (Demand) Feature Complete (Improvement) Certainty

60. Ubiquity Utility Services Certainty

61. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O

62. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O

63. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O

64. Application Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O

65. Application Software Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O

66. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty

67. Change Why now?

68. Concept

69. Concept Suitability

70. Concept ? Technology Suitability

71. Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)

72. Attitude Concept ? Technology Suitability

73. Paul Strassmann http://www.strassmann.com/

74. Nick Carr

75. Ubiquity g in ue h l is va in c im gi D e ra t st Certainty

76. Payroll HR Systems CRM ERP Sales Automation Infrastructure Finance & Accounting

77. Ubiquity HR Payroll Certainty

78. Ubiquity HR Payroll Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Certainty

79. Customise your payroll system! http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

80. Ubiquity Way back when ... Certainty

81. Ubiquity Now Way back when ... Certainty

82. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Certainty

83. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty

84. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability

86. Change Why now? Beneﬁts & Risk

87. Ubiquity Early Utility Westinghouse, 1890s Product Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty

88. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty

89. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Certainty

90. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty

91. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty

92. Ubiquity efﬁciency Certainty

93. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Certainty

94. Previous Time (mins) New server 72,000 64 node 130,000 cluster

95. Previous Cloud Time Time (mins) (mins) New server 72,000 7 64 node 130,000 15 cluster

96. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Certainty

97. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

98. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

99. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

100. Ubiquity lu e Va in g d E ro Certainty

101. Ubiquity lu e Va in g d E ro Enables Innovation Certainty

102. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Certainty

103. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Enable Innovation Search Certainty

104. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Enable Innovation Certainty

105. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

106. Rate of evolution of a system is dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems. Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

107. Application

108. Application Database Framework Messaging

111. Application Orders of Magnitude CPU

112. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty

113. Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)

114. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Certainty

115. Importance Limit of IT Projects

116. Importance Limit of IT demand (backlog) Projects

117. Price !P !Q Quantity

118. Ubiquity Innovation Flemming Valve, 1904 Certainty

119. Ubiquity Products Intel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971 Certainty

120. Busicom

121. Busicom MCS-4

122. Busicom Co-Evolution MCS-4

123. > 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

124. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Certainty

125. Ubiquity consumption Certainty

126. It’ll reduce your IT spend. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

127. consumption efﬁciency

128. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efﬁciency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865

129. Choice?

130. Ubiquity Market You Certainty

131. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty

132. Ubiquity Market Pay per use Focus on core Economies of scale Speed to market Accelerated innovation You Certainty

133. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Certainty

134. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty

135. “Red Queen Hypothesis” The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to a surrounding ecosystem Prof. Van Valen

137. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/billege

138. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/giddygoose/

139. No Choice?

140. Ubiquity Marketplace Certainty

141. Ubiquity Private Marketplace Certainty

142. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty

143. Ubiquity Transition Confusion Governance Trust Security Transparency Certainty

144. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty

145. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty

147. Only public cloud is cloud computing! http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

148. Beneﬁts vs Risks

149. Recap

158. Change Why now? Beneﬁts & Risk General

159. Ubiquity IT Certainty

161. Ubiquity Infrastructure Certainty

162. Ubiquity Infrastructure Collective Enables Intelligence Certainty

163. Ubiquity provided as .. built on ... Certainty

166. Data Code

167. Data Code

168. Proprietary Open Source

169. TCO Proprietary Open Source

170. Exit Proprietary Open Source

171. Minimise future costs defacto public standard open source implementation

172. Change Why now? Beneﬁts & Risk General Managing Change

175. Lifecycle

176. # Lifecycle

177. # Lifecycle

178. Electricity # Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems Lifecycle

179. # Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Lifecycle

180. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Lifecycle

181. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle

182. # Lifecycle

183. # Dynamic Lifecycle

184. # Dynamic Deviation Lifecycle

185. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Lifecycle

186. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle

187. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Lifecycle

188. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

189. # Chaotic Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

190. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

191. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

192. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

193. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

194. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle

195. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. Lifecycle

196. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. CODB Lifecycle

197. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. CODB Lifecycle

198. # Chaotic Linear Innovation of Utility Services early lists, 1980. of Salesforce Lifecycle

199. Use Six Sigma! http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

200. # Six Sigma Lifecycle

201. # Six Sigma Repeatable Standardised Known Predictable Lifecycle

202. # Six Sigma Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle

203. Use Six Sigma! No! Use Agile! http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

204. # Agile Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle

205. # Agile Repeatable Standardised Known Predictable Lifecycle

206. # No Magic Bullet Lifecycle

207. # Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle

208. # Joseph A. Schumpeter Prof. Van Valen (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle

209. Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey

210. One Size ﬁts all! http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

211. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty

212. # Lifecycle

213. # Six Sigma Lifecycle

214. # Lifecycle

215. # Outsource Lifecycle

216. # Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Lifecycle

217. # Software Platform Infrastructure Lifecycle

218. # Software Platform Infrastructure Innovation Lifecycle

219. # “Built on” “Provided as” Lifecycle

220. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

222. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

223. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

225. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/

226. Recap

231. consumption efﬁciency

236. Minimise future costs defacto public standard open source implementation

237. # “Built on” “Provided as” Lifecycle

239. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle

240. 2010 Study Tour – Surf the Change or Be Swept Away – Consumerization, Mobility, and the Cloud The annual LEF EP Study Tour this year will focus on the rapid evolution of IT consumerization – In terms of driving business change Some Key Questions To Be Addressed • How do we treat IT-savvy employees and customers – in terms of their technology decision rights? • How do we promote business value add in terms of social networking tool usage? – without “heavy handed “ IT governance? • What information sharing rules need to be changed in an era of increased external collaboration? • How do we make it easier for staff to leverage cloud computing services? – while maintaining enterprise discipline around security and risk? 17 – 22 October 2010 San Francisco, USA For more information, visit: http:// lef.csc.com/events/studytour Leading Edge Forum 06/08/10 02:53 AM

E Crime Symposium June 10

Simon Wardley

E Crime Symposium June 10