5th Dimension Vol 3


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5th Dimension Vol 3

  1. 1. A PGPM 508 Initiative to share views from a different dimension Election Special - 03 The Verdict : 2009 by Arobinda 20 May 09 India has made its choice and results are out. It a bipolar kind of equation at the center; one alli- was not just an electoral exercise, but an event of ance in the ruling seat and another alliance in such a magnitude that will never be seen in the the opposition seat, serving their whole 5 year Inside this issue: world. All credits to P Chidambaram for keeping it term. This will help them focus upon real issues as smooth as possible. of governance rather than worrying about their Employment, 2 chairs. As a single party, Congress has gained 38% of the 543 seats, which is a big achievement and it The UPA has been bestowed upon more power to Economy , Telecom 2 is a 45% gain over the 145 seats it won last time. introduce and implement its policies without The 61 seats won by Congress over its last elec- much hurdle this time. Congress and other ruling tion‟s tally of 145 have been lost by BJP, LEFT, members of UPA must understand the verdict of Security , Agriculture 3 Indian population for the benefit of all. The same SP & RJD. „junta‟ will watch them closely and make con- Education, Power 3 Infrastructure, Healthcare 4 Judiciary System 4 RJD & Left Parties 5 Above score scious notes of all activities. Clear majority has card clearly attracted other so called non-co operative parties highlights of Congress to support government at center - POLLUMOUR the strength RJD, SP & BSP have said that they will support of different alliances and parties UPA. We have not forgotten Lalu‟s comment that on the political number game. he will never ever join Congress. So we can very This shows a lateral shift in the well understand the motive behind these three judgment of people of India parties‟ wanting to support UPA. while voting to select their new Central Govern- The BJP has been humbled, but has survived in ment. The election results have proved that for most of the states where it is strong, except in forming a government single party majority does Rajasthan. In other states, the Congress has won not matter anymore (mind you it is very much largely against regional parties and the Left. If important if we are talking about meeting the the BJP does genuine introspection, it will realize magic number 272), because the alliance as a it has steam to turn into a robust opposition. whole will take all the decisions. This shows a So verdict 2009 is very clear but it will change in people‟s perspective and may be if this be very interesting to see how UPA government is some indication that we are moving towards a tackles all its challenges and keep people moti- vated to support them again for 2014 elections. General Elections 09 : An End has a Start…. by Swapnil India‟s jumbo election came to an end and peo- is very low. Govt. should invest By On Ali Tinwala ple‟s verdict has set the beginning of a stable, in education and also do se- PGPM unifying government in the world‟s largest de- lective privatization so that the mocracy. Congress‟s tally highlights the biggest poor acquire the skills needed win by any party in last 18 years. UPA is back, in modern jobs. Unless there is fuelling hopes that the long-awaited surge in massive employment genera- Team Saksham reforms may finally take place, to help the econ- tion, the poverty cannot be tackled. We have Anindya omy to rebound. Indian corporate responded in analysis of each sector in the sections to follow. positive tone. “This is good for India and good for Indian electorate has shown once again that they Arobinda the world,” said Rahul Bajaj, chairman of Bajaj opt for moderation and balance, especially in Auto Ltd. TC, DMK and NCP are the main allies troubled times. Will the end of political uncertainty Arun this time but their numbers isn‟t great enough to be the beginning of India‟s century? History has Balaji create any pain. shown us that whenever the Congress enjoys The first challenge for the new government is to unbridled power; its factions tend to get arbitrary Priya revive falling growth and make it more inclusive. and unilateral. If we take their past achievements Government should understand that inclusive as an indication to future, then we could expect Sachin growth does not just mean farm loan waiver or another five years of lackluster management. The Swapnil the National Rural Employment Guarantee parties in the government must understand that Scheme. These schemes throw money at the ours is a largest functioning democracy and peo- poor and destitute without actually helping them ple vote for the betterment of the country. If they climb up the economic ladder. The poor must get don‟t perform to people‟s expectations, they will a chance to move into the modern, high- perish as this is not going to be the last general productivity sectors. India‟s expenditure in social elections. sector like education and healthcare pgpm.fifthd@gmail.com http://sites.google.com/a/spjimr.org/thefifthdimension/
  2. 2. The 5th Dimension Page 2 Sector Wise Analysis : Economy by Himanshu Sector Wise Analysis : Employment by Kalpesh Employment is one of the key socio-economic factors describing the growth of an economy. The current unemployment rate in India is 7.32%. India's labor force is growing at a rate of 2.5% annually, but employment is growing at only 2.3%. Thus, the country is facing a chal- lenge not only to absorb new entrants into the job market (estimated at 70 Lakhs people every The results of the 15th Lok Sabha elections year), but also to clear the backlog. Reforms and were even more unexpected and surprising than policies devised and implemented by govern- that of an IPL match. Thanks to the people of ment plays a very important role in creating new India for not making it a tie! Dr Singh has a jobs. daunting task at hand to revive the ailing Indian Skills create employment and self economy following a worldwide economic melt- employment opportunity. Government should down. Congress in its manifesto takes pride in promote vocational institutes at regional and achieving an average growth of 9% per year in district level and provide vocational training at the first four years of its coalition government- a subsidized costs. Efforts should be made to first in India. Dr Singh inherited shining India identify and implement systemic reforms in ad- when he took over as PM in 2004 but now in his ministration of Industrial Training Institutes (ITIs) second term as PM, he faces a crumbling econ- to facilitate closer interaction with the industry omy, soaring revenue and fiscal deficits, declin- to improve quality of training and help the un- ing tax and non-tax revenues, stalled reforms, employed earn decent wages. Government threat of rating downgrades, low corporate mo- should promote Entrepreneurship by extending rale and volatile stock markets. bank credit and conducting entrepreneurship In the build up to general elections training. 2009, there had been reckless spending over The UPA leaders have been speaking past 2 years on subsidies, farm loan waiver and about Inclusive growth as a part of their agenda. huge increases in the salaries and pensions of The idea of true inclusive development would government employees following the Sixth Pay mean that even the poorest Indians get a Commission recommendations. The government chance to move into the modern, high- was way off initial FRBM target of 2.5% fiscal productivity sectors. The UPA govt. should take deficit in 2008-09 as it touched 7.8% of GDP. steps to revive labor laws to encourage use of The only silver lining for the new government at less expensive capital and more permanent this point of time is the low inflation rate. But labor. Reforms should be implemented to ease with the monetization of fiscal deficit, this situa- the doing of a business and even shutting down tion can also exacerbate very soon. of a business. To equip poor people with neces- The only way to bring down the reve- sary skills, the UPA government should encour- nue and fiscal deficit would be to drastically cut age public investment in education and do se- down the expenditure in the form of subsidies. lective privatization. We need to watch what Other measures to be seriously pursued include reforms and policies the govt. would implement pushing the disinvestment program, putting to achieve the inclusive growth. The govt. should thrust on physical infrastructure programs, rais- definitely spread the benefits of economic ex- ing the limit for FDI in various sectors and re- pansion and revived growth into different sec- suming the stalled reform process. The govern- tors as investments, to generate more jobs. A ment has to play the next 5 years as a test comprehensive mechanism needs to be built match and plan accordingly instead of playing a through which government can ensure that poli- 20-20 match. cies reach the grass root level people. Sector Wise Analysis : Telecom by Sorabh There was stupendous rise in the telecom sector It will also be in interest of Government to speed from 2003 to 2008. The growth was mainly due up the policy details on 3G and Wi-Max alloca- to opening up of the sector to foreign invest- tion by bringing consensus between financial ments and relaxation in policies. and telecom ministries to assuage revenue New government now has to come up losses amounting to billion of dollars. with a plan for growth where tele-density of the country can be increased from 36% to match to After all we have lessons to be learnt that of developed nations. from 2G spectrum allocation in 2008 where Achieving such a growth depends on First-Come-First-Served (FCFS) was adopted and the quality of service provided; reach to rural spectrum was allocated at Rs 1651 crore per sectors, facilitating unbiased allocation of 3G company against market prices which were al- spectrums among new and existing players, most six times higher. increasing the cap on FDI under automatic route, and harmonizing actions between TRAI and TDSAT. pgpm.fifthd@gmail.com http://sites.google.com/a/spjimr.org/thefifthdimension/
  3. 3. The 5th Dimension Page 3 Sector Wise Analysis : Security by Santanu The whole of Indian sub-continent is passing needs rejuvenation. We have to think and act through a tantalizingly delicate phase in terms of against such internal and external threats by go- stability, internal and external securities. Our ing beyond a "political” debate. The government neighbors, be them Nepal, or Pakistan, or Bangla- should accept our weaknesses against such at- desh or Sri Lanka, are going through violent political tacks and take constructive steps to anticipate, and military unrest. Our bitter sweet eastern prevent and counter such future terrorist and neighbor China is a constant threat in the North cyber terrorism activities. India does not have East border. Surrounded by such extreme examples, technical resources and expertise as well as legal India has seen its security breached many a times in framework to tackle terrorism and cyber terror- recent past - the attack on the parliament and the ism. The UPA government should realise this and serial blasts in Bangalore, Hyderabad and Guwahati recruit and train security forces to handle situa- and of course the three day urban warfare of tions of extreme terrorism like that of 26/11. 26/11. With Pakistan's "jihadist Frankenstein mon- The lives of the people and the pride of the nation ster" forcing its army to remain focused on India, are at stake. With the new government at the experts feel that there is possibility of another centre, we citizens can probably hope for a holis- 26/11 style attack on the country. tic security policy, a facelift of the security forces Every terrorist attack on India has proved time and a foreign strategy that will keep the infiltra- and again that Indian Security infrastructure tors, terrorists and attackers at our bay. Sector Wise Analysis : Agriculture by Sorabh Sector Wise Analysis : Education by Abhishek Look at these numbers, agriculture contributes 16% As it stands today, public policy paradigm in India to the country‟s GDP, employs around 60% of the needs to provide utmost top priority to Education – workforce and sector is growing at an abysmal aver- primary, secondary and technical. NPE (national age rate of 2.5% for some years now. We all know policy on education, 1986) stressed on higher that illiteracy, insufficient finance, undeveloped spending on education, envisaging a spending of market channels, irrigation infrastructure and heavy 6% of the GDP. In practice, however, it has rarely dependence on monsoons are to be blamed. But exceeded 3 per cent. the Government cannot simply play blame game Problems of less qualified teachers, very low with the rain gods any longer if India dreams to be- teacher- student ratios, inadequate teaching mate- come the economic superpower of tomorrow. It con- rials and out-dated teaching methods result in a stituted some measures in terms of National Rural low quality of education that often imparts little or Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), facilitating no real learning. free distribution of electricity to farmers by state Sound policy-making decisions in higher education governments, waiver of farm loans etc. But its right can ensure that India keeps churning out not just time for it to seize opportunity to look at what talented employees for enterprises and busi- schemes worked and which haven‟t given the de- nesses of all sizes, but also tomorrow‟s entrepre- sired results. It needs to bring transparency in im- neurs and business leaders who can create world- plementation of NREGA by looking at employment of class companies from scratch. contractors, mass fudging of muster rolls and insti- The expectations from new government are very tutional kickbacks still prevailing. It needs to access high. The new government‟s policies should aim to the allocation of farm loan waivers to the marginal empower people and reduce disparity between farmers severely affected and at same time work on them rather fuelling any sort of divide based on revival of indigenous and sustainable farming prac- irrational reservation policies or benefits that cater tices. It needs to increase outlay for agricultural only to small segment of the society. Policy makers research and policy planning for agricultural sur- have to formulate and implement future strategies pluses and deficits. There is need to develop the in favor of vibrant India. right infrastructure which can support the farmer to As has been proved with many other sectors, edu- take rational decision based on commodity price cation also needs liberalization with an effective movements and sell it‟s produce at the right price. regulatory environment. The government needs to With UPA govt. getting its numbers right in parlia- put more thought to retain the quality of the brand ment, it now should help agriculture sector score IIT and IIM. About 93% of the total workforce the right numbers on India‟s balance sheet. Sector Wise Analysis : Power by Anindya The current capacity of the Indian Power Sector high entry barriers in the transmission and distri- 147965.41MW, with per capita power consumption bution segments. The other barriers are fuel link- at 612 kWH. The contributors are Thermal – 63.3%, ages, payment guarantees from state govern- Nuclear 2.8%, Renewable Hydro-24.9% and others ments that buy power and retail distribution li- 8.9%. The power shortage for 2008-09 was 11% cense. Currently, India needs to double its genera- and peak load deficit of 12%, which is expected to tion capacity in the next 7 to 10 years to meet the be 9.3% and peak shortage of 12.6% in 2009-10. potential demand. An immediate curb on T&D The Electricity Act 2003 brought some notable re- losses (in India it is 25% against < 15% for devel- forms like free permission of Captive Power Genera- oping economies) and proper realization of reve- tion, Unbundling of SEBs. Introduction of Availability nues will give a great boost to this sector and its Based Tariff systems with Unscheduled Interchange future. But there is a catch. Some time back a have greatly disciplined the Power Sector of India. report showed that if India can control its power The Power Sector requires immediate solutions to transmission losses, India will need no additional power for a decade. Anybody listening?? pgpm.fifthd@gmail.com http://sites.google.com/a/spjimr.org/thefifthdimension/
  4. 4. The 5th Dimension Page 4 Sector Wise Analysis : Infrastructure by Aparup “Rome was not built in a day”…But Rome was The new government should pace up the policy what it was because of its built. Infrastructure is implementation and should not make any ex- the ABC of the development chapter of any cuses in their execution to attract funding and country. investments from global and domestic investors All the developed countries develop the infra- into the infrastructure projects and housing structure first and then create the necessity for sector. the people to use. On the other hand in India, A report from Goldman Sachs says that afford- only when necessity pushes the government to able housing in India is seriously undersupplied. the brink, does it think about infrastructure. The It is estimated that due to the growing urbaniza- question is how can India sustain an 8% plus tion India needs 30million units. Making attrac- annual growth rate by reforming its agricultural tive policies in the housing sector and their im- sector, improve education and health care, open plementation would be a huge challenge for the its economy for reaping the benefits of globaliza- government in the coming 5years. tion and emerge as a true world power if it is People of India have done a splendid job by constrained increasingly by inadequate infra- choosing a stable government to take the pro- structure development. ceedings further. It is now the responsibility of Although the stock markets have spurred up due UPA to boost the confidence by making eco- to the FII‟s, it is too early to say that revival in nomic policies and execute them as quickly as corporate spending into infrastructure projects possible. will start soon. Sector Wise Analysis : Healthcare by Jaspal and Sankar In a nation like India, where there is no formal We can expect the government to give impetus social security system in place and tax rates are to medical tourism by changing its policy such high, healthcare and health insurance are very as increasing FDI limits, giving incentives and crucial. The current condition of healthcare facili- tax breaks for opening state of the art hospitals ties available for lower and lower-middle class in the country. It will increase the quality of people is dismal. The condition in the govern- health-care and free up some of the government ment hospitals keeps deteriorating day by day. medical infrastructure which could be used to There is a tough road ahead for the current gov- serve the poorer section of society. ernment to support high standards in healthcare and at the same time make it affordable for all. We all remember the age old phase “Health is The government can promote affordable Health Wealth”. This is also true in literal sense too. As Insurance program through cooperative society per the data available, a turnover of Rs 1 crore networks in the IT industry would mean employment for especially five to seven people while the same turnover in for those the healthcare industry would employ 250 peo- who cannot ple. One of the expectations from new UPA gov- meet their ernment will be to drive the economy on basis of medical growth in the healthcare industry by framing expenses. policies and guidelines scrupulously. The future of Healthcare sector looks bright and promising. Need of the hour is for the government and pri- vate sector enterprises to join hands and boost the Indian healthcare sector. Sector Wise Analysis : Judiciary by Jagadeesan, Chandra & Sandeep The Supreme Court of India is at the apex of the millions of poor and disadvantaged sections of hierarchy and has exclusive original jurisdiction the society. Under the Lok Adalat System more to all disputes between the Union and one or than half million Lok Adalats were organized more states or between two or more states. during five years in which about five million Twenty-One High Courts presided by a chief jus- cases were settled. tice each stand at the head of the state's judicial Any legal system, based on the rule of law, administration. must, first and foremost, enable any citizen to The UPA Government in its last tenure had taken set in motion the machinery of the law, civil and prompt steps to drastically cut delays in High criminal, without any impediment and quite Courts and lower levels of the judiciary. Notable regardless of the wishes of the men in power. among them were filling up of vacancies of High However most of our laws are archaic in nature Court Judges, continuous focus on Fast-Track and can be legitimately questioned. We need courts to dispose of long pending cases and “Desuetude”- a natural exit policy for the old introduction of computers with internet system laws or some kind of a change. Hope the fresh in almost all the courts. The National Legal Liter- UPA Government under its able prime minister acy Mission was launched by the National Legal will introduce reforms to make sense of this Service Authority (NALSA) for the benefit of archaic system of laws! pgpm.fifthd@gmail.com http://sites.google.com/a/spjimr.org/thefifthdimension/
  5. 5. The 5th Dimension Page 5 Is Mr Laloo Out? By Ajit Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav, who till few days back poor people to select right candidates to run this called himself kingmaker, has been left with country. In election 2009, in one of the most nowhere to go. backward states of our county, Bihar, the same He lost the reign in Bihar to Nitish Kumar in section of society has proved that they can also 2005 assembly elections. By then Laloo had judge their leaders on the "intellectual" parame- already started focusing on Centre and with his ters like infrastructure development, law and 26 member of parliament emerged as strong order and good governance. It is this section of pillar of UPA government in 2004. However with our society that participates in election in large just 3 MPs to show in the 15th Lok Sabha, Laloo numbers to keep democracy sustained and has been pushed to oblivion. these people can appraise their political leaders Critics of the democracy have always raised as rationally as any intellectual class of this soci- serious doubts over the capability of illiterates & Do not fall in love By Aparup & Mihir In the global recession there is one thing obvious because people have placed you there. One of that market driven economy of capitalist coun- the most important qualities which modern day tries can also fail by the greed of people. West leaders must acquire is to use their intuition. has come under a grave strain as financial capi- Does it really work? Never forget to ask this talism erupted in a full blown financial crisis. question while you are formulating some rules No. of Seats There are many people who are preferring com- and policies. The second question to always munism but ask CPI(M) party who could not get ponder upon is, are there enough alternatives any favor in the last parliamentary election. and if yes, then what they are. It failed miserably in the WB(9 seats), Kerala(4) though it got both the seats in Tripura. Change means breaking old habits. It means Learning: admitting that you were wrong, and this is never Lately I was trying to relate this action oriented easy. It means losing face. It means starting all event in our day to day classes and what we over again. And this is always painful. It means could learn from it. Every party is an organiza- saying I am sorry. It means recognizing that we tion. can be better. These things are terribly hard to Experience matters as well as do energy and do. But unless we start, we will be trapped for- excitement. Grooming of young leaders is must ever in old ways. As I have always said, never in any situation. fall in love, always rise. May be its time for the Get closer to your people: People do matter, it communists to rise from the ground where they doesn‟t matter they are rural, urban or rich; they had fallen in love with their own idealisms and are your capital asset. Where you are, you are forgotten people. Only time will show. Predict the Result We carried out the “Predict the result” con- test. We had asked the participants to predict the seats for INC, BJP, Left, Team Saksham with SP and BSP. And the win- Prof. Jiban Mukhopadhyay ner with least deviation is Rajesh Kumaran (PGPM508). Dear 5th Dimension readers & followers, today when, Dr. Manmohan Singh is all set to take oath as PM for 15th Loksabha, we conclude our „election special‟ series with this third volume. We started amidst huge uncertainties on who will stake claim to form new government - time to time we provided our views on party manifestos, political and social needs of Indian population, role of professional independent candidates, our prediction and expert analysis on exit poll surveys and also provided insight on key aspects of Indian electoral system. 16th May came up with great surprise with results going way beyond all predictions and UPA getting the near clear majority in the house. We are happy to conclude this series with hopes of positive revival of economy, better security measures and prosperity for our citizens under new stable UPA government. „Team Saksham‟ would like to thank you all for extending your support and for being source of our strength time to time. We will be back soon with entirely new series of 5th Dimension on a new ex- citing theme. Stay tuned! The views, analytics and interpretations expressed are strictly of the team. pgpm.fifthd@gmail.com http://sites.google.com/a/spjimr.org/thefifthdimension/