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Real Estate Market Property Outlook 2017 - 2018

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Real Estate Market Property Outlook 2017 - 2018

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Real Estate Market Property Outlook 2017 - 2018

  1. 1. Real Estate Market Property Outlook 2017 - 2018 Mani REALTOR PropNex Realty Pte Ltd 8300 4411 Help@AskRealtor.sg https://www.linkedin.com/today/posts/AskRealtorMani
  2. 2. Disclaimer: While every reasonable cause is taken to ensure the accuracy of information printed or presented here, no responsibility can be accepted for any loss of inconvenience caused by any error or omission. The ideas, suggestions, general principles, examples and other information presented here are for reference and educational purposes only. This presentation is not in anyway intended to give investment advise or recommendations to buy, sell or lease properties or any form of property investment. PropNex shall have no liability for any loss or expense whatsoever, relating to investment decisions made by the audience. All copyrights reserved.
  3. 3. What is the NEW Dynamics of the Market
  4. 4. (16 Residential Collective Sales Deals in First 10 Months) En Bloc Sales in 2017
  5. 5. So far, 18 collective sales worth S$6.72 billion this year comprising mainly residential developments have closed, with over 2,700 existing homes expected to be taken out of the market. Over 10,000 new homes are estimated to be built on these sites. The breakdown pricing is estimated to be in the range of S$2,100 – S$2,200 psf.
  6. 6. Collective Sales 2017 S/N Project Name Developer Price Purchase 1 One Tree Hill Gardens Lum Chang Holdings Limited $65 million 2 Rio Casa HUDC Oxley Holdings, KSH Holdings, Lian Beng Group and Super Group’s Teo Family $575 million 3 Goh&Goh Building BBR Holdings $101.5 million 4 Eunosville HUDC Jardine Matheson Group unit, MCL Land $765 million 5 The Albracca Sustained Land $69.12 million 6 Serangoon Ville HUDC Oxley Holdings $499 million 7 Tampines Court Sim Lian $970 million 8 Sun Rosier Sing Haiyi $271 million 9 Normanton Park Kingsford Huray $830.1 million 10 Amber Park Hong Leong Group $906.7 million 11 Jervois Gardens SC Global $72 million 12 Nanak Mansions UOL Associate $201.1 million 13 208 Yio Chu Kang Road Oxley Holdings $8.4 million 14 Dunearn Court Roxy-Pacific Holdings $36.3 million 15 Florence Regency Logan Property (Singapore) $629 million 16 Changi Garden Chip Eng Seng Corp $248.8 million
  7. 7. (Residential) Collective Sales 2006 to 2017 YEAR VALUE (S$M) No. Of Deals 2017 6,248 (6.248 Billion) 16 2016 1005.45 3 2015 380.00 1 2014 160.00 1 2013 1216.01 16 2012 1453.70 25 2011 3214.57 51 YEAR VALUE (S$M) No. Of Deals 2010 1820.85 38 2009 100.80 1 2008 346.53 8 2007 11,515.96 88 2006 7,821.15 78
  8. 8. How will this impact the market ? Land Bids First Half of 2017
  9. 9. Projected Launch Price
  10. 10. Comparison West Coast Vale Site Land Bid in 2015 vs 2017 Developer bid 7% more in 18 monthsfor the same location. What does this signal?
  11. 11. Ripple EffectTrend on Projects
  12. 12. Legend Estimated Sales Price $1,700 - $1,800 psf $1,500 - $1,600 psf $2,000 - $2,100 psf $1,650 - $1,750 psf $1,750 - $1,850 psf $1,250 - $1,350 psf $1,700 - $1,800 psf $2,500 - $2,600 psf$2,200 - $2,300 psf $1,700 - $1,800 psf $3,400 - $3,600 psf $1,900 - $2,000 psf $1,950 - $2,050 psf $1,700 - $1,800 psf
  13. 13. Price Trend in Various Regions ($ PSF) Region 2015 / 2016 2016 / 2017 Expected 2018 Core Central Region $2,000 $2,200 - $2,500 $2,500 - $3,000 Rest of Core Central $1,500 $1,550 - $1,700 $1,700 - $1,900 Outside of Core Central $1,000 $1,150 - $1,300 $1,400 - $1,500 Executive Condominium $750 $800 - $830 $830 - $880 DBSS $550 $550 $550 HDB Resale $400 $400 $400 BTO $250 $250 $250
  14. 14. Catch theTrain
  15. 15. New Project Launches inYear 2018 North / North-East Region (District 19) [CS] RIO CASA (APT) Price: $575mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,500 - $1,600 psf PARCVERA (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Completed year 2014 THE FLORIDA (EC) 99-year leasehold Completed year 2000 EVERGREEN PARK (APT) 99-year leasehold Completed year 1999 PALM GROVE (CONDO) 999-year leasehold Completed year 2002 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $642 psf (5 Oct ‘17) $638 psf (25 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $746 $697 psf (5 Oct ‘17) $661 psf (17 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $708 $996 psf (20 Sep ‘17) $993 psf (3 Mar ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,041 $1,003 psf (30 Aug ‘17) $788 psf (17 Apr ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,006 PN Project Forest Woods from $1,343 psf PN Project Kingsford Waterbay from $1,114 psf
  16. 16. New Project Launches inYear 2018 North / North-East Region (District 19) [CS] SERANGOONVILLE (APT) Price: $499mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,650 - $1,750 psf KOVAN MELODY (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Completed year 2006CASA CAMBIO (CONDO) Freehold Completed year 2014 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $1,263 psf (8 Sep ‘17) $1,056 psf (31 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,263 $1,128 psf (17 Oct ‘17) $935 psf (5 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,139 TERRASSE (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Completed year 2014 $1,459 psf (24 Jul ‘17) $1, 543 psf (7 Mar ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,543 North / North-East Region (District 19) [GLS] SERANGOON NORTH AVE 1 Price: $446.2mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,750 - $1,850 psf
  17. 17. New Project Launches inYear 2018 North / North-East Region (District 20) [CS] SHUNFUVILLE (EC) Price: $688mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf BISHAN 8 (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 09/10/1996 SEASONS VIEW (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 06/09/1996 TRESALVEO (CONDO) Freehold Completed year 2012 RAFFLESIA (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 18/07/1997 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $1,452 psf (2 Oct ‘17) $1,537 psf (2 Aug ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,537 $1,052 psf (25 Jul ‘17) $929 psf (3 Feb ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,052 $1,118 psf (6 Sep ‘17) $1,028 psf (16 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,161 $1,038 psf (24 Jul ‘17) $1,089 psf (25 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,091
  18. 18. New Project Launches inYear 2018 East Region (District 14) [CS] EUNOSVILLE (APT) Price: $765mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf WATERBANK AT DAKOTA(CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 07/12/2009 SIMSVILLE (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 01/12/1994 DAKOTA RESIDENCES (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 11/09/2007 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $860 psf (5 Oct ‘17) $817 psf (26 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $960 $1,478 psf (10 Oct ‘17) $1,360 psf (12 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,698 $1,310 psf (17 Oct ‘17) $1,259 psf (17 May ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,423
  19. 19. New Project Launches inYear 2018 East Region (District 15) [CS]THE ALBRACCA (CONDO) Price: $69.1mil Estimated Sales Price: $2,500 - $2,600 psf THE MAKENA (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 1998 THE WATERSIDE (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 1992 WATER PLACE (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 02/03/1998 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $1,493 psf (29 Sep ‘17) $1,358 psf (17 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,493 $1,663 psf (17 Oct ‘17) $1,259 psf (9 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,663 $1,159 psf (2 Oct ‘17) $1,163 psf (26 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,159 PN Project Fulcum from $1,845 psf PN Project Sims Urban Oasis from $1,303 psf
  20. 20. New Project Launches inYear 2018 East Region (District 18) [CS]TAMPINES COURT (CONDO) Price: $970mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,450 - $1,550 psf MELVILLE PARK (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 01/09/1992 SAVANNAH CONDOPARK (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 29/11/2000 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $733 psf (11Aug ‘17) $782 psf (26 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $733 $762 psf (26 Sep ‘17) $602 psf (20 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $762
  21. 21. New Project Launches inYear 2018 West Region (District 05) [CS] 231 PASIR PANJANG Price: $121mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf BLUE HORIZON (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 14/08/2000 THEVISION (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 25/06/2008 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $973 psf (10 Oct ‘17) $1,032 psf (2 Feb ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,068 $1,097 psf (14Aug ‘17) $1,165 psf (6 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,284
  22. 22. New Project Launches inYear 2018 West Region (District 21) [GLS]TOHTUCK ROAD Price: $265mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,750 - $1,850 psf SOUTHAVEN II (CONDO) 999 years from 21/06/1877 THE RAINTREE (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 01/03-2003 HIGHGATE (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 1995 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $948 psf (25 Sep ‘17) $981 psf (11 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,140 $958 psf (27 Sep ‘17) $1,009 psf (18 Apr ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,074$934 psf (20 Sep ‘17) $929 psf (12 May ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,019 PN Project The Creek @ Bukit from $1,421 psf
  23. 23. New Project Launches inYear 2018 West Region (District 23) [CS] JALAN REMAJA Price: $47.81mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf DIARY FARM ESTATE (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 1989 GLENDALE PARK (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 2000 GUILINVIEW (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 24/04/1996 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $1,119 psf (29 Sep ‘17) $1,041 psf (3 Feb ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,161 $891 psf (28 Aug ‘17) $954 psf (9 May ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,062 $765 psf (20 Sep ‘17) $840 psf (3 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $840
  24. 24. New Project Launches inYear 2018 Central Region (District 03) [GLS] MARGARET DRIVE Price: $238.4mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,850 - $1,950 psf THE METROPOLITAN(CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 17/02/2006 THE ANCHORAGE (CONDO) Freehold Completed year 1997 QUEENS (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 16/02/1998 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $1,234 psf (16 Oct ‘17) $1,151 psf (20 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,333 $1,316 psf (28 Sep ‘17) $1,214 psf (20 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,347 $1,184 psf (4 Oct ‘17) $1,180 psf (11 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,184 Central Region (District 03) [GLS] STIRLING ROAD Price: $100.2mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,900 - $2,000 psf
  25. 25. New Project Launches inYear 2018 Central Region (District 09) [CS] 8 HULLET ROAD Price: $38.2mil Estimated Sales Price: $2,750 - $2,850 psf 8 @ MOUNT SOPHIA (CONDO) 103-year leasehold Tenure from 28/11/2002 HILLTOPS (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 2011 HORIZONTOWERS (CONDO) 99-year leasehold Tenure from 17/08/1979 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $3,102 psf (16 Oct ‘17) $2,827 psf (12 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $3,691 $1,415 psf (9 Oct ‘17) $1,357 psf (3 Jan ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,478 $1,123 psf (9 Oct ‘17) $991 psf (23 Feb ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,123 Central Region (District 09) [CS] NEW FUTURA Price: $287.3mil Estimated Sales Price: $3,200 - $3,500 psf
  26. 26. New Project Launches inYear 2018 Central Region (District 12) [GLS] UPPER SERANGOON ROAD Price: $1,132mil Estimated Sales Price: $2,000 - $2,100 psf BEACON HEIGHTS (CONDO) 999-year leasehold Tenure from 02/06/1882 VISTA RESIDENCES (CONDO) Freehold Completion Date 2013 Source: Google Map, URA (Realis) $1,106 psf (21 Sep ‘17) $1,416 psf (30 Aug ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,416 $1,446 psf (11Aug ‘17) $1,402 psf (8 Mar ‘17) *Highest PSF: $1,467 Central Region (District 12) [GLS]WOODLEIGH LANE Price: $700.7mil Estimated Sales Price: $1,950 - $2,050 psf
  27. 27. Catch MarketTrends It is the RightTime
  28. 28. New ProjectVolume OCR RCR CCR
  29. 29. Resale Volume OCR RCR CCR
  30. 30. CCR ResaleVolume 991 683 498 985 +97% Q3 2017 vs Q4 2016 Data as at 24 Oct 2017
  31. 31. RCR ResaleVolume 522 617 978 1099 +110% Q3 2017 vs Q4 2016
  32. 32. OCR ResaleVolume 740 886 1342 1664 +124% Q3 2017 vs Q4 2016
  33. 33. CCR Price Psf +5.4% Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016
  34. 34. RCR Price Psf +6.6% Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016
  35. 35. OCR Price Psf +4.8% Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016
  36. 36. URA flash estimates show that the overall price increase was driven by condominium and apartment prices in the suburbs. Source from E BusinessTimes (011017)
  37. 37. Article by SPH media
  38. 38. Article by SPH media
  39. 39. Source fromThe BusinessTimes (280917)
  40. 40. Source fromThe StraitsTimes (290917)
  41. 41. Source fromThe BusinessTimes (290917)
  42. 42. Article by SPH media
  43. 43. Article by SPH media
  44. 44. Article by SPH media
  45. 45. Article by SPH media
  46. 46. Article by SPH media
  47. 47. Article by SPH media
  48. 48. Article by SPH media
  49. 49. Article by SPH media
  50. 50. Article by SPH media
  51. 51. Source fromThe Straits Times (031017)
  52. 52. Article by SPH media
  53. 53. Source:The StraitsTimes (Online) 241017 Latest En Bloc News! • The site can yield up to 80 units in a new development. • Current Cairnhill Mansions site can accommodate up to 228 new apartments. • The guide price for Cairnhill Mansions is S$362 million, which works out to S$2,101 psf ppr.
  54. 54. Source:The StraitsTimes (Online) 231017 Latest En Bloc News!
  55. 55. Positive Sentiments in the Market today
  56. 56. Price Trend in Various Regions ($ PSF) Region 2015 / 2016 2016 / 2017 Expected 2018 Core Central Region $2,000 $2,200 - $2,500 $2,500 - $3,000 Rest of Core Central $1,500 $1,550 - $1,700 $1,700 - $1,900 Outside of Core Central $1,000 $1,150 - $1,300 $1,400 - $1,500 Executive Condominium $750 $800 - $830 $830 - $880 DBSS $550 $550 $550 HDB Resale $400 $400 $400 BTO $250 $250 $250
  57. 57. Source: The Business Times (18072017)
  58. 58. Source: TODAY paper (25072017)
  59. 59. Source: The Straits Times (18072017)
  60. 60. Source: The Business Times (20022017)
  61. 61. Source: The Business Times (2702017)
  62. 62. Source: The Straits Times (2702017)
  63. 63. Source: The Business Times 24042017
  64. 64. Source: The Business Times (16032017)
  65. 65. Source: The Straits Times Online (1203017)
  66. 66. What does this signal for the property market today?
  67. 67. PRIVATE PROPERTY: Industry Updates
  68. 68. PIPELINE OF SUPPLY OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL UNITS Source: URA
  69. 69. IMPROVED HOME AFFORDABILITY
  70. 70. Growing Population Article by SPH media
  71. 71. Average population increase by 100,000 per/annum Article by SPH media
  72. 72. Source: URA
  73. 73. Source: URA
  74. 74. Source: The Business Times 04072017
  75. 75. Let’s look at the: Private Residential Statistics Trends & Figures. As of 2Q 2017 results released by URA on 28 July 2017
  76. 76. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL MARKET AT A GLANCE 3Q 2017: 137.7 (0.5%) Flash Estimate Source: URA (Published 011017)
  77. 77. YEAR PRICE INDEX OVERALL % 2007 122.1 + 28 2008 116.4 - 4.5 2009 118.4 + 4.2 2010 139.2 + 16.6 2011 147.4 + 5.8 2012 151.5 + 2.8 2013 153.2 - 1.1 2014 147.0 - 4.1 2015 141.6 - 3.7 2016 137.2 - 3.1 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICES Y-O-Y (2007 – 2016) Source: URA
  78. 78. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICES (Q-on-Q) YEAR PRICE INDEX OVERALL % Q1 2016 140.6 -0.7% Q2 2016 140.0 -0.4% Q32016 137.9 -1.5% Q42016 137.2 -0.5% 2016 overall -3.1% Q12017 136.7 -0.4% Q2 2017 136.6 -0.1% Q3 2017 137.7 +0.5% Source: URA +0.5%Flash Estimate
  79. 79. OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICE INDEX (2014 – 1Q2017 REGIONS) Quarter CCR RCR OCR 1Q14 136.2(-1) 149.7 (-3.3) 169.1 (-0.1) 2Q14 134.2 (-1.5) 149.2 (-0.3) 167.6 (-0.9) 3Q14 133.1 (-0.8) 148.6 (-0.4) 167 (-0.4) 4Q14 131.9 (- 0.9) - 4.2 146.6 (- 1.3) - 5.3 165.6(- 0.8) - 2.2 1Q15 131.4 (- 0.4) 144.1 (-1.7) 163.8 (-1.1) 2Q15 130.6 (-0.6) 143.2 (-0.6) 162.0 (-1.1) 3Q15 129.0 (-1.2) 140.9 (-1.6) 159.4 (-1.6) 4Q15 128.6 (- 0.3) - 2.5 140.3 (-0.4) - 4.3 159.4 (0) - 3.8 1Q16 129.0 (0.3) 140.3 (0) 157.3 (-1.3) 2Q16 129.4(0.3) 140.6 (0.2) 156.5 (-0.5) 3Q16 126.9 (-1.9) 139.2 (-1.0) 154.9 (-1.0) 4Q16 127 (0.1) -1.2% 136.4 (-2.0) -2.8% 154.0 (-0.6) -3.4% 1Q17 126.5 (-0.4) 136.8 (0.3) 154.2 (0.1) 2Q17 125.9 (-0.5) 137.6 (0.6) 153.7 (-0.3) 3Q17 126.15 (0.2) 137.6 (0.6) 154.78 (0.7) Source: URA, PropNex Research Flash Estimate
  80. 80. OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICE INDEX 2016 – 1Q 2017 BY REGIONS Quarter CCR RCR OCR 1Q 2016 0.3% 0% -1.3% 2Q 2016 0.3% 0.2% -0.5% 3Q 2016 -1.9% -1.0% -1.0% 4Q 2016 0.1% -2.0% -0.6% 2016 Overall -1.2% -2.8% -3.4% 1Q2017 -0.4% 0.3 0.1 2Q 2017 -0.5 0.6 -0.3 3Q 2017 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% Source: URA, PropNex Research Flash Estimate
  81. 81. PERIOD Uncompleted properties Completed properties Total CCR RCR OCR 2012 Total 1,761 4,030 16,064 342 21,855 2013 Total 1,952 4,468 8,337 191 14,757 2014 Total 755 2,386 3,969 206 7,110 2015 Total 232 1,812 5,102 294 7,146 2016 Total 524 2280 4585 583 7389 OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS BY REGION (NEW LAUNCHES) Year on Year Source: URA, PropNex Research
  82. 82. PERIOD Uncompleted properties Completed properties Total CCR RCR OCR 1Q 2016 221 309 829 60 1,359 2Q 2016 118 983 984 171 2,085 3Q 2016 105 423 1,281 172 1,809 4Q 2016 80 565 1491 180 2136 TOTAL OVERALL 2016 7389 1Q 2017 89 817 1713 343 2619 2Q 2017 125 999 1442 511 2566 TOTAL AS OF 2Q 2017 5185 OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS BY REGION (NEW LAUNCHES) By Quarters Source: URA, PropNex Research
  83. 83. 2013 2014 2015 2016 As of 2Q 2017 New Sale 14948 7316 7440 7972 6039 Subsale 1055 567 517 505 200 Resale 6624 4966 6160 7901 5868 TOTAL 22654 12849 14117 16378 12,107 OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS WHOLE SINGAPORE Source: URA, PropNex Research
  84. 84. In Summary: 2Q 2017 URA Statistics Prices of private homes in Singapore fell 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), the lowest dip since prices started to decline in Q4 2013 With aggressive land bids and the positive sentiment we expect prices to grow positively by next year, transactions to cross 21,000 mark

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