The world after Covid – How have behavioural changes affected energy demand and what does this mean for the future?

Energy Efficiency 2020 and WEO 2020
Behaviour changes and energy demand
Paris, 10 February 2021
Jeremy Sung

IEA 2021. All rights reserved. Page 2
To read more…
www.iea.org

Impacts of Covid-19 on energy demand
Oil has been the fuel most affected by the Covid-19 crisis; the pandemic erased almost a decade of growth in oil
demand in a single year
Change in primary energy demand in 2020
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Renewables Total energy demand

Efficiency progress, already weakened, faces setbacks from the pandemic
To meet global climate goals, energy intensity needs to improve by at least 3 to 4% per year.
Primary energy intensity improvement rate, 2015 - 2020
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annual
change

Behaviour is one of several factors affecting energy intensity
Changes to investment
in efficient technologies
Structural shifts in the
economy
Changes to energy
using behaviours
Some behaviours have been more energy intensive, while others have been less energy intensive

People are spending more time at home…
In some countries, where the pandemic is largely under control, visits to workplaces have remained lower
Changes to average time spent at home (left) and visits to workplaces (right), Feb-Oct 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
%
change
compared
with
baseline
Average time spent at home
- 45
- 40
- 35
- 30
- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
0
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Average visits to workplaces

People are using more energy in the home and at different times
People have been doing more energy using activities on weekdays
Changes in energy usage for one utility in the Netherlands, lockdown period compared with pre-lockdown period
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Weekdays Weekends
Source: Quby (2020), What self-quarantine does to household energy usage: while others guess, Quby measures.

People are using less energy in commercial buildings
Commercial buildings that have remained open tend to be more energy intensive
Reduction in energy demand under stay-at-home orders and average energy intensity by building type, in two United States
regions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Energy
intensity
(kWh/m2)
Reduction
in
energy
demand
Mean demand reduction Energy intensity (kWh/m2)

People are shifting from public to private transport modes
In many countries, public transport use has plummeted by 40% on normal levels,
while car use, walking and cycling are less affected, and sometimes higher than usual.
Average working week transport trip requests by mode (average of all weeks,13 Jan to 31 Oct 2020 inclusive),
compared with baseline
Note: Baseline is average over the working week beginning 13 January. A trip request is a request for routing directions made via the Apple Maps smartphone application.
- 50
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
0
10
20
United
States
Brazil Mexico Spain United
Kingdom
Italy Germany Japan
Index
(Week
of
13
Jan)
Driving
Public transport
Walking

IEA 2021. All rights reserved.
Future scenarios for behaviour change and energy
demand

Under current policies, behaviour is unlikely to have large net impacts
While some behaviours are expected to lower demand, others are expected to increase demand, resulting in
a small net impact, compared with other changes to the energy system
Impacts of behaviour changes in transport oil demand and drivers of changes in the STEPS, 2019-2030
SUVisation
Low fleet turnover
Less public transport
Fewer flights
Teleworking
Deferred car sales
Net change
-0.8
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
mb/d
5
10
15
20
Growth
Behaviour
Fuel efficiency
Activity
Fuel
switching
mb/d

But behaviour changes will be needed to meet Paris goals and beyond
An unparalleled transformation of the energy sector and major behaviour changes in the next ten years would be
needed to achieve global net-zero emissions by 2050
Energy and industrial process CO2 emissions and reduction levers in the scenarios
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2020e 2025 2030
GtCO2
Power
End-use
Behaviour
STEPS
NZE2050
SDS

Would changing air temperatures at home mitigate climate change?
Emission savings from moderating the use of space heating and space cooling are substantial, but fall over time as
the emissions intensity decreases
Impact on CO2 emissions from reducing space heating temperature settings by 3 °C in the NZE2050
2020 2025 2030
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
Mt CO2
Europe
North
America
Russia
China
Other
SDS
STEPS
Residential heating

Would changing air temperatures at home mitigate climate change?
Emission savings from moderating the use of space heating and space cooling are substantial, but fall over time as
the emissions intensity decreases
2020 2025 2030
Mt CO2
Europe
North
America
Russia
China
Other
SDS
STEPS
200
300
400
500
600
700
Residential cooling
Impact on CO2 emissions from increasing space cooling temperature settings by 3 °C in the NZE2050

Cycling or walking short car journeys
More than 7% of total CO2 emissions from cars are from trips which could be cycled in less than 10 minutes
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Cumulative share
Trips CO2 emissions
Trip length in km
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Cycle time in
minutes
<10 minutes cycling time 7.5%
Cycling “like the Dutch” 5%

Emissions reductions from behaviour changes
Some changes in behaviour could happen straight away; others would need to be guided by policy, supported by
infrastructure, and would ramp up over time.
Impact of behaviour changes on CO2 emissions in the NZE2050
-2 000
-1 500
-1 000
- 500
2021 2025 2030
Mt CO2
Reduce domestic heating by 3°C
Reduce domestic cooling by 3°C
Cycle/walk trips <10 min cycle time
Line-drying instead of tumble-drying
Reduce laundry temperature by 10°C
Replace all flights <1h
Reduce driving speed by 7 km/h
Adopt eco-driving practices
Ride-share all urban trips
Reduce mobile air conditioning by 3 °C
Work from home 3 days a week
Road transport
Aviation
Residential
Cut ¾ of business flights
Cut ¾ long-haul leisure flights

The world after Covid – How have behavioural changes affected energy demand and what does this mean for the future?

The world after Covid – How have behavioural changes affected energy demand and what does this mean for the future?

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The world after Covid – How have behavioural changes affected energy demand and what does this mean for the future?