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Webinar - Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin America: market, technologies and outlook

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This webinar presents the results of a study about the status and current trends of expanding the use of small hydro plants, wind, solar, geothermal in several Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela and Central America in a more aggregated manner. The study analysed the countries’ power sector expansion plans up to 2020-30, current regulation and the presence of relevant stakeholders committed to renewable electricity generation.

The work was conducted by the International Energy Initiative, IEI, a Southern-conceived, Southern-led and Southern-located South-North partnership, an NGO with offices in Brazil and India. The webinar will be presented by the leader of the study, Dr. Gilberto M. Jannuzzi, IEI’s Director. The webinar will present the main findings concerning electricity markets, trends in regional energy policies and regulations and the presence of stakeholders in the countries analysed. Which technologies are being preferred? What are the types of regulations being practiced?

About the speaker : Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi is a Ph.D. by Cambridge University, professor of the Energy Department of the Mechanical Engineering Faculty (FEM) of the Campinas State University (UNICAMP), executive director of the International Energy Initiative, and coordinator of many energy and environmental projects in Brazil and abroad.

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Webinar - Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin America: market, technologies and outlook

  1. 1. + Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation inGilberto M Jannuzzi Latin America: the market, technologies and outlook
  2. 2. + 2 Report “Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Latin America: the market, technologies and outlook - 2010” Team: Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi University of Campinas – UNICAMP and International Energy Initiative – IEI, Brazil Odón de Buen Rodríguez Energía, Tecnología y Educación, S.C. – ENTE, S.C., Mexico João Gorenstein Dedecca International Energy Initiative – IEI, Brazil Larissa Gonçalves Nogueira International Energy Initiative – IEI, Brazil Rodolfo Dourado Maia Gomes International Energy Initiative – IEI, Brazil Judith Navarro Energía, Tecnología y Educación, S.C. – ENTE, S.C., Mexico
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. + 4 Objective and Characteristics of the study Objective: provide a picture of the current status and near future development of renewable energy technologies in LA countries Markets up to 2020 (official projections), regulations, stakeholders Countries: Argentina, Brazil, Central America, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and Mexico Sources/technologies: SHP (<20 MW), wind, biomass, solar PV, geothermal Information: Survey the existing public available literature, official documents and reports Personal contacts
  5. 5. + 5 Structure of presentation Current picture Trends & Drivers Policies & Regulation Stakeholders Most promissing technologies/countries Conclusions
  6. 6. + Current situation: Renewable Electricity (RE) 6
  7. 7. + 7 RE: good potential in LA But today represents 2-5% of the existing capacity Table 3: Estimated potential of alternative sources for electricity generation  Solar PV Wind energy (MW) SHP (MW) Geothermal (MW) Biomass (MW) (kWh/m2.year)Argentina 1800 5000 425-480 150-2000 430Brazil 1095-2372.5 >250000 25913 360-3000 265401Chile 663.5-2555 6000-10,000 2600 3500-7000 1000Peru 1900-2500; 1800 2500 1000 1000-2990 1782Colombia 1800 21000 25000 552 47Venezuela 1606-2445.5 45195 15000 910 340Mexico 1640-2370 40000 32503 6500-8000 800Central America 1725-2175 400 – 600 W/m2(4) 180003 24400-31500 635
  8. 8. + 8 Renewable electricity: installed capacity (2009) Note: Large Hydro plants not included!
  9. 9. + 9 RE installed capacity: contribution by country 0% 2% 5% 9% Central America 7% 2% 4% Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru 71% Venezuela
  10. 10. + 10 Summary: RE in Latin America The energy sources considered represent 2,5% to 5% of total installed capacity in the examined countries. Biomass represents 50% of the total energy generated by RE. All researched countries have plans to expand production of electricity from alternative sources considered. Brazil and Peru have about 5% of its capacity attended by RE, Argentina and Colombia have about 4%, Mexico and Chile are 2.5%.
  11. 11. + Drivers for expansion: RE in Latin America 11
  12. 12. + 12 Driving forces for RE expansion in LA
  13. 13. + 13 Local Policies drivers The analysis shows that in most countries the issues below have been important factors to support the policies of RE :
  14. 14. + Policies, Stakeholders, Funding 14
  15. 15. + 15 Policies, trends, stakeholders, finance Main countries : Brazil, Mexico ,Chile and Argentina Other countries : Peru, Colombia (Andean Region) Main Technologies : Wind and Biomass Policies Trends Stakeholders Finance • Several legal • Biomass • Research • BID iniciatives • Wind Centers • BNDES • Lack of • Small Hydro • Government • GTZ financial Plants • Regulators • Government incentives • Manufactures • Specific • Project mechanisms Developers technological regulation
  16. 16. +Policies & regulatoin 16
  17. 17. + 17 Policies and regulation: current scenario • All countries have some sort of policy to promote RE • Brazil has a development of laws, regulations and incentives that favored, over time, specific technologies such as biomass, and more recently wind and solar PV. • Chile has shown interest in putting incentives and rules for the sources in a more general way and this has been the trend of the other analyzed countries.
  18. 18. + 18 Market/technology trends • Wind energy is the most promising technology by 2020, considering the plans of energy. • Wind and biomass are the most important technologies for the next 5-10 years. • It is expected significant expansion of wind energy in Argentina, Brazil and Chile, and biomass in Brazil, Argentina, Central America, Colombia and Peru.
  19. 19. + 19 Stakeholder analysis: current situation Project Developers, Manufacturers, Environmental Ministries / Agencies Trade Associations, Chambers of Commerce and Industry, International Banks, Multilateral Organizations and national agencies Note: project developers are essential in consolidating the market for these technologies, but in general there are sufficient critical mass.
  20. 20. + 20 Stakeholder analysis: matrix
  21. 21. + Multicriteria analysis Which are the best country+technology ? 21
  22. 22. + 22 Criteria selection and analysis There are three axes of evaluation or criteria used for this analysis: market, regulation and actors. Projected installed capacity (High and Low) a quantitative criterion. Regulation and stakeholders: qualitative and represent, respectively, the degree of development and the importance of the legal framework and existing players.
  23. 23. + Energy projection data Table 71: Additional installed capacity per source and country (MW)  Central Argentine Peru Colombia Venezuela Mexico Brazil (2020)1 Chile (2020)3 America (2020)2 (2020)4 (2020)5 (2013)6 (2020)7 (2015)8 Wind energy 6000 - 7800 200 – 8000 1000 – 6122 0 - 403 9 – 100 172 1724 115 SHP( <20 MW) 6966 1004 616 - 676 0 – 509 512 – 601 0 465 0 Biomass 8521 300 - 1000 380 – 1742 101 180 0 100 110 Geothermal energy 0 100 – 200 0 – 488 125 – 400 55 0 126 25.5 Solar photovoltaic 0 250 - 500 4 80 0 0 0 0 Ocean energy (waves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 and tides) CSP 195 300 0 - 970 0 0 0 0 0
  24. 24. + 24 Results Low market projections High market projections Brazil-wind Brazil-wind Brazil-biomass Argentina-wind Brazil-SHP Brazil-biomass Argentina-wind Brazil-SHP Mexico-wind Chile-wind Chile-SHP Mexico-wind and Argentina- PV These pairs represent the most promising markets for the future, considering the information gathered using the official projections of electricity (by 2020, and considering the lowest and highest projection of demand for copper), the existing regulations and local stakeholders
  25. 25. + Conclusions OPORTUNITIES 25
  26. 26. + 26 Conclusions Speed: the expansion of RE in the countries analyzed is moving fast. Technology: The greatest opportunities are in wind and biomass Countries: Large potential w/zero growth: Venezuela, Colombia, Central America Large potential, fast growth: Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico Policies: there are several legal and regulatory initiatives, but not enough financial incentives and other market mechanisms Regulation: while Brazil has opted to create specific regulation for different RE technologies, Chile has introduced broader RE regulation. It is still early to recommend best model for stimulating RE markets. Stakeholders: Project developers are key to consolidate the market for these technologies and there is not enough critical mass of them. Impacts: Still to see.
  27. 27. + The End gilberto@iei-la.org jannuzzi@fem.unicamp.br 27
  28. 28. + MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS - Regulatory - Local partners/Government mechanisms - Manufacturers - Economic incentives - Class Associations - Market creation - Installation & Maintenance - Environment Agencies - NGOs Research - Consulting & Engineering - Funders
  29. 29. + MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS Weights for different scenarios • Scenario 1: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 1 • Scenario 2: copper = 2; regulation = 1; actors = 1 • Scenario 3: copper = 1; regulation = 2; actors = 1 • Scenario 4: copper = 1; regulation = 1; actors = 2
  30. 30. + MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS Ranking of evaluated countries-technologies pairs scenario 1: lower limit amount of additional copper

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