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Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP market

This webinar will provide a general view of drivers and barriers for CSP development, with a particular focus on the structure of the CSP Value Chain. From a technical point of view, the main key performances will be reviewed for the different technologies.

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Drivers and Barriers in the current CSP market

  1. 1. Drivers and Barriers in the Current Concentrated Solar Power Market
  2. 2. Contents <ul><li>Altran Group Presentation </li></ul><ul><li>Solar Activity within Altran </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction to CSP Industry, </li></ul><ul><li>Technologies and Markets </li></ul><ul><li>The basics of CSP Technology </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Parabolic Trough System </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Central Receiver or Power Tower </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Linear Fresnel Reflector System </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dish System </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>CSP Performance per technology </li></ul><ul><li>CSP Costs </li></ul><ul><li>CSP Market </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Drivers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Barriers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Value Chain </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>CSP Worldwide Capacity (MW) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  3. 3. 1. The Altran Group <ul><li>26 years of innovation </li></ul><ul><li>3 continents: Europe, Asia, Americas </li></ul><ul><li>Partner with the largest multinational companies : 500 large accounts accompanied in 40 countries </li></ul><ul><li>Global Partner </li></ul><ul><li>Employees </li></ul><ul><ul><li>June 08: 18 000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>June 07: 17 200 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sales Turnover </li></ul><ul><li>2007 : 1,591 Md € </li></ul><ul><li>2006 : 1,495 Md € </li></ul>Long-term collaboration Strategy and Management Organization and Informations Systems Technology and R&D EUROPEAN LEADER IN INNOVATION CONSULTING <ul><li>A global innovation partner covering the whole innovation cycle </li></ul><ul><li>Presence in all market sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation Projects at the forefront technology around the world </li></ul>
  4. 4. Strategy and management consulting* Sales 2007: 20% Technology and innovation consulting Sales 2007: 47%  IT and organisation consulting Sales 2007: 33% Automotive, Road & Engineering Sales 2007: 19% Aerospace & Defence Sales 2007: 16% Energy , Life-Sciences & other industries Sales 2007: 22% Telecoms, Media, Electronics & Services Sales 2007: 24% Finances & Government Sales 2007: 19% The Altran group
  5. 5. CSP PV CPV 2. Solar Services <ul><li>Development Engineering </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Feasibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Product Design </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simulation and Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software Development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Product Optimization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Benchmarking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Design to Cost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality Improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Testing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Failure Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reengineering </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Systematic Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time to Market Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation Certification </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology Surveillance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technical Office </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Basic and Detailed Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Systems Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Execution Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Assistance to Execution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RAMS Analysis on Processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Owners Engineering & Control </li></ul><ul><li>on Execution </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Owner’s Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Execution Control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality Assurance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technical Audits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commissioning </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After Sales, Warranties, O&M </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Claims Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maintenance Protocols </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SW for Operation & Maintenance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process Engineering </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Feasibility studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Simulation and Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Production Improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MES Manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RAMS Analysis on Processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Supply Chain Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Supply Quality Assurance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality Management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Testing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process Optimization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lean Manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quality Improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>RAMS Improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation in Processes </li></ul></ul>Products Processes Projects R & D
  6. 6. 3. Introduction to CSP Industry, Technologies and Markets <ul><li>Which are the most important technologies related with the thermal application of CSP? </li></ul><ul><li>Which are their advantages and disadvantages? </li></ul><ul><li>Which technology is the most developed? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the real investment costs? </li></ul><ul><li>Which are the expectations for the near-future? </li></ul>This presentation is based on the “Global Concentrated Solar Power Industry Report 2010 - 2011 ” . This report provides the latest information on the thriving Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) industry, including essential cost and performance data on the four main CSP technologies: Parabolic Trough, Power Tower, Fresnel and Dish Stirling.
  7. 7. 4. The basics of CSP Technology <ul><li>The basics of CSP Technology </li></ul><ul><li>How CSP works: description of the technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Thermodynamics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Brief history of CSP and current state </li></ul><ul><li>Brief description of main configurations </li></ul><ul><li>Storage </li></ul><ul><li>Main Requirements: solar (DNI), land requirements (ft2 and m2 per MW), water usage, etc. </li></ul>
  8. 8. 4.1. Parabolic Trough System <ul><li>Parabolic trough technology is currently the most proven CSP technology, and therefore the more developed and standardized system. </li></ul>Characteristic Parabolic Trough Plant power 30 – 300 MW Annual Capacity Factor 23 – 56 % Peak Efficiency 20 % Annual net efficiency 11-16% Maximum Cycle Temperature 300 – 400 º C Cycle Rankine Cycle Optical Concentration Ratio (from Collector) 28:1 (LS3) 82:1 (ET150) Area collector 34-550 m2 Receiver absorptivity 0.94 - 0.99 Thermal storage 0-12 Hours
  9. 9. 4.2. Central Receiver or Power Tower <ul><li>Power Tower systems are reaching their commercial feasibility and seem to be the next step in the development of CSP technology. </li></ul><ul><li>Power Tower systems use a circular or semicircular array of heliostats (individually tracking large mirrors) to focus sunlight onto a central receiver mounted on top of a tower. </li></ul><ul><li>Solar radiation is concentrated on a relatively small surface so it’s possible to achieve a high concentration ratio and therefore efficiently operate at high temperatures </li></ul>Characteristic Power Tower Plant power 10 – 200 MW Annual Capacity Factor 20 – 78 % Peak Efficiency 19 – 23 % Annual net efficiency 7 – 20 % Maximum Cycle Temperature 585 º C Cycle Rankine Area heliostat 40 – 120 m2 Thermal storage 7 – 15 Hours
  10. 10. 4.3. Linear Fresnel Reflector system <ul><li>A linear Fresnel reflector power plant uses a series of long, narrow, shallow-curvature (or even flat) mirrors to focus light onto one or more linear receivers positioned above the mirrors. </li></ul><ul><li>On top of the receiver a small parabolic mirror (secondary reflector) can be attached for further light focusing. </li></ul>Item Fresnel Annual Net Efficiency 13% Peak Efficiency (electric-solar) 18% Plant availability 94% Capacity Factor 25-90% Temperature of Operation 390ºC Annual Electricity Yield 316 kWh/m²a Water consumption per MWe 760-920 gal/MWhe (plus other uses 8gal/MWhe) Land Requirements 1,800 m 2 /MW Land Use m 2 /MWh/year 4-6 Storage (hours) 0-12hours Storage (medium) Steam Technological maturity Medium Power Capacity Range 2-200MW
  11. 11. 4.4. Dish system <ul><li>Dish/Engine systems use an array of parabolic dish-shaped mirrors (stretched membrane, flat glass facets or curved glass facets) to focus solar energy onto a receiver located at the focal point of the dish, which means a three dimensional radiation concentration. </li></ul>Characteristic Dish Stirling Unit power 5 – 25 kW Annual Capacity Factor 24 – 25 % Peak Efficiency 29,4 % Annual net efficiency 12 – 32 % Maximum Cycle Temperature 800 º C Cycle Stirling/Brayton Reflectivity 92 - 94 Area collector 91 m 2 Receiver efficiency 90 Thermal storage Not possible
  12. 12. 5. CSP Performance per technology <ul><li>Performance Comparison between different CSP technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Possible performance improvements </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of a higher operating temperature </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of a simplification of the system brought about by Direct Steam Generation </li></ul></ul>General Considerations Performance Parameters Seasonal and hourly variations of electrical yield Storage and Hybridization
  13. 13. 6. Costs of CSP Technology <ul><li>General considerations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scale of the project </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Performance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Terms of financing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of Tax Credits and Regulations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current Costs per Technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Parabolic Trough </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tower </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fresnel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dish </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Perspectives for CSP Cost Reductions </li></ul>
  14. 14. Current Costs per Technology Item Parabolic Trough Power tower Fresnel Dish Initial Investment Cost (without storage) 4.0 – 6.5 $/We 4.0 – 6.5 $/We 3.0 – 7.0 $/We 1.14 – 10.0 $/We Initial Investment Cost (with storage) 5.0 - 8.0 $/We 5.0 -7.0 &/We 4.0 – 8.5 $/We - Initial Investment Cost Solar Field 58% of the Investment cost 43% of the Investment cost 43% of the Investment cost 60% of the Investment cost Initial Investment Cost Power Block 14% of the Investment cost 13% of the Investment cost (the tower supposed the 4% and the receiver 18%) 18% of the Investment cost 35% of the Investment cost Initial Investment Cost Steam Generation 3% of the Investment cost 9% of the Investment cost 7% of the Investment cost - Initial Investment Cost Control 2% of the Investment cost 2% of the Investment cost 5% of the Investment cost 5% of the Investment cost Initial Investment Cost O&M 0,01 – 0,04 $/kWhe 0.02 -0.09 &/kWhe 0.009 – 0.05 $/kWhe 0.01 – 0.05 $/kWhe Initial Investment Cost Balance of Plant 120 – 500 $/kW 100 – 400 $/kWe - 200 – 280 $/kW Initial Investment Cost Storage 20 – 30 % increases Investment cost 20 – 30% increases Investment cost 20 – 30% increases Investment cost - LEC 0.14 – 0.40 $/kWhe 0.04 – 0.07 $/kWhe 0.20 – 0.40 $/kWhe 0.28 – 0.35 $/kWhe
  15. 15. 7. CSP Market <ul><li>Introduction to the CSP market </li></ul><ul><li>General Overview of the Industry </li></ul><ul><li>7.1 Drivers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CSP can enhance Energy security in electricity generation. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The fluctuating Price of Fossil Fuels has an important impact in the economy of countries, the use of CSP plants reduce the energy dependence. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Job creation : 500 jobs are created during the construction period of a 50 MW CSP plant, and about 50 will be permanents for O&M. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change : 70,000-149,000 tons of CO2 emissions are avoided with a 50MW CSP plant. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government incentives and regulation : It is important that governments provide with mandates and energy policies or incentives. (Example of FiT, Tax Credits, Tax Incentives, etc…) </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. 7.2. Barriers <ul><li>The high Capital Cost of CSP Technologies leads to a high LCOE and makes project financing more difficult, compared to technologies that are fuel-cost intensive. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geographical risks (high DNI, near water source, flat land and a good connection to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the grid is needed for a CSP plant) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long Permitting processes, which directly affect the total cost of the project </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technological uncertainty with constant improvements and cost reductions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of transmission capacity will limit the amount of power that can be exported </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. 7.3 CSP Value Chain
  18. 18. 7.4. CSP Capacity and Projects worldwide (in MW) <ul><li>Plants in operation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plants under construction </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Planning plants </li></ul>
  19. 19. 8. Conclusions (I) <ul><li>A high level of direct normal irradiation (DNI) is needed for the operation of CSP plants (2,500 kWh/m2/yr is recommended). This requirement limits the geographical areas where CSP is feasible to the following areas: Southern Europe; Middle East and North Africa; Southern Africa; Some region in India; North-western and central Australia; Northern Mexico; South-Western and Mid West USA and Andean Plateau. </li></ul><ul><li>Technological improvements are needed to reach higher performance: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing operating temperature </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Storage </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing water consumption </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Parabolic Trough is the most mature technology, followed by Power Tower and Fresnel. The less mature is Dish technology. </li></ul>
  20. 20. 8. Conclusions (II) <ul><li>Installed CSP power capacity worldwide is about 700MWe. USA is the country with more plants in operation with about 443 MW. </li></ul><ul><li>Spain is second with about 230 MW in operation, and 1,367 under construction. When finished, Spain will be at the forefront in installed capacity with more than 1,500 MW. </li></ul><ul><li>The main drivers for the CSP Technology development are: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government Mandates for Renewables </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Energy security, linked to the fluctuating price of fossil fuels. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Job creation opportunity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government incentives and regulation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>CSP technologies have a great potential, but nowadays they face a number of market barriers such as political instability, insufficient legal and administrative structures, economic vulnerability or lack of infrastructures. </li></ul><ul><li>However, in developing countries it is expected to minimize them in the near future. </li></ul>
  21. 21. www.altran.comes More information about CSP in the Global Concentrated Solar Power Industry Report 2010 – 2011 For further information about Altran, please get in contact with David Pérez: [email_address]