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1
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Paul Dawson
photo
Sustainable Su...
2
Red Crater 1886 m
Tongariro 1961 m
Emerald Lakes
Blue Lake/
Rangihiroa's Mirror
3
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Ngauruhoe last erupted 1974-77
R...
4
A short history of the Crossing
Left: 1908 tourist group at Emerald Lakes - few people,
no management
Right: Now many pe...
5
Estimated numbers on the Crossing
10,000
Spot counts & hut
surveys from 1992
Early 1990s:
international visitors
exceed ...
6
Economic benefits
• Large number of people
• Almost 90% stay 1 or 2 nights in local districts
• $200/day spent on accomm...
7
• 46% 20-29 years, 22% 30-39;
strong social media use
• International 76% (range 70-
80%, trend appears to have
weakened...
8
Social and recreational benefits
“strong benefits”, “clear majority satisfied” [similar to
expectations], “huge sense of...
9 Jimmy Johnson photo
10
Visitor concerns
2012 survey question: What did you
least enjoy?
Bubs Smith
photo
11
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Main management concerns & issu...
12
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Track management/erosion contro...
13
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Safety & risk management and th...
14
• A mass fatality event in TNP will
most likely be due to an
“unheralded” eruption
• Unmitigated: 1 event / 10-19 years...
15
噴石(奥の院)
Ontake eruption 2014: 58 hikers killed (5 missing) most
of them by flying rocks. Similar eruption to Tongariro
...
16
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Toilets
 “Dissatisfaction rate...
17
2005: “Integrated use limits” aka “carrying
capacity” identified: exceeded when >550-
600 people-counts/day
2012: num...
18
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Over-use/over-crowding needs mu...
19
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Suggested revision of goals
“We have a responsibility to ensure p...
20
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000...
21
Visitor use peaks in summer- raw
counter data on TAC
22
TAC rescue operations: police-organized
(≈ 70% of total). Average 2x10-4 ops/person
23
Crowding: examined in 1993-96, 2005 & 2012
surveys
2005
2012
2015/16 Bubs Smith photos
• Red Crater area
most crowding
...
24
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Quote from Blaschke & Whitney 2...
25
What they say about the TAC
• DOC brochure 1990s: “Often
described as the best one day
walk in NZ”
• Lonely Planet: “on...
26
Eruption
on TAC
The TAC on the NZ risk landscape
27
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
TAC with existing & proposed to...
28
Summary in Bamford 2014:
Currently the Department of Conservation and Ngati
Hikairo Ki Tongariro are assessing their op...
29
History of the Crossing
Pre 1900s: trails to Ketetahi Springs (medicinal & cultural) & birding
Early 1900s: bridle trai...
30
31
Visitor surveys and other references
• Angus & Associates 2012
• Bamford 2014
• Blaschke & Whitney 2007
• Coomber & Leo...
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Harry Keys: Tongariro Alpine Crossing

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Day 3 - Presented to Sustainable Summits 2016
Harry Keys: Tongariro Alpine Crossing

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Harry Keys: Tongariro Alpine Crossing

  1. 1. 1 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Paul Dawson photo Sustainable Summits 2016, Aoraki Mt Cook National Park, 7-11 August Harry Keys (hkeys@doc.govt.nz) Department of Conservation DOC-2848662
  2. 2. 2 Red Crater 1886 m Tongariro 1961 m Emerald Lakes Blue Lake/ Rangihiroa's Mirror
  3. 3. 3 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Ngauruhoe last erupted 1974-77 Red Crater last erupted 1934 Te Maari last erupted 2012 Mangatepopo carpark & Roadend To Ketetahi Roadend Alpine area subject to severe weather year round 3 historically active volcanic vents Centre of North island, very accessible Visitor use peaks over summer
  4. 4. 4 A short history of the Crossing Left: 1908 tourist group at Emerald Lakes - few people, no management Right: Now many people, management important, moving towards co-management with iwi 2013 opening ceremony after eruptions
  5. 5. 5 Estimated numbers on the Crossing 10,000 Spot counts & hut surveys from 1992 Early 1990s: international visitors exceed NZers 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2005 2010 2015 Calendar Year Counter time series 1992: 11,000 people: 20% of 48,000 total on the19 km track 2015: 109,000: 80% of 140,000 total on the 20 km track Estimated numbers 1950-2011, Bamford 2014 GFC eruption ? Growth can’t continue like this: numbers and/or experience are likely to decline unless some kind of new management is introduced and effective
  6. 6. 6 Economic benefits • Large number of people • Almost 90% stay 1 or 2 nights in local districts • $200/day spent on accommodation & transport per TNP summer visitor ($20 million/year) • Strong growth (9%/year, average compound rate) • 80-90% use buses & rental vehicles • 21 transport concessions; 22 guiding concessions mostly local • >50 bus and rental car companies used • Increased number of school/youth visits & benefits from education
  7. 7. 7 • 46% 20-29 years, 22% 30-39; strong social media use • International 76% (range 70- 80%, trend appears to have weakened) • No reduction in numbers of NZers • Domestic (2012): AKL 43%, Wgtn 12%, South Is 3% • Gender: even ratio • Party size: 1 =13%, 2 =46%, 3-4 =24% • 60% 0-1 hike/year of this type Demographics etc Based on 6 visitor surveys 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 International&domesticproportions Survey year/season % international % domestic Apparent no. NZ
  8. 8. 8 Social and recreational benefits “strong benefits”, “clear majority satisfied” [similar to expectations], “huge sense of achievement” Angus & Assoc 2012, Blaschke & Whitney 2007 Helping meet DOCs 2025 goals: 50% international visitors visit a national park; 90% of New Zealanders enriched by our nature 2012 Q: What did you most enjoy?
  9. 9. 9 Jimmy Johnson photo
  10. 10. 10 Visitor concerns 2012 survey question: What did you least enjoy? Bubs Smith photo
  11. 11. 11 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Main management concerns & issues 1. cost per person (“just need funding”)  Track work ($3 pp)  Rescue, SAR & volcanic risk management – visitor safety ($2 pp)  Toilets/waste-management ($1.50 pp)  Road maintenance  Concession management 2. challenge to solve  Crowding on track at times & maintaining satisfaction  Protecting cultural values & identity  Transport & car parking  Effective planning/consultation Top: DOC; Bottom: Paul Carr
  12. 12. 12 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Track management/erosion control standard solutions, some debate  Vulnerable volcanic soils (trampling & erosion)  Restoration, upgrades & track deviations (up to $250/metre)  Maintenance $3.50/m (DOC model)  Limits to upgrade options in mountains  Alternative tracks, concerns & efficacy
  13. 13. 13 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Safety & risk management and the TAC visitor • Limited understanding of personal responsibility - “they’d close the track if it wasn’t safe” • Most visitors are reasonably prepared but notable exceptions • Information available but not always accessed/received • Iwi hold a duty of care - kaitiakitanga • No trauma fatalities for 5 years but several near-misses (hypothermia, slips, rockfall, Aug 2012 eruption) • Many rescues, well developed public (free) system Heading to Mt Doom (barefoot like Frodo!) & about to get lost in cloud. DOC photo Babies on the TAC - first baby rescue 2016. DOC photo
  14. 14. 14 • A mass fatality event in TNP will most likely be due to an “unheralded” eruption • Unmitigated: 1 event / 10-19 years • If mitigation effective: 1 event / 90- 100 yrs • Good volcanic warning system but maintaining readiness is a concern • Concessionaire contribution? • Accept that eruptions disrupt visitor use & commercial activity Top: Herb Spannagl; bottom: Cant. Uni Risk management in active volcanic areas
  15. 15. 15 噴石(奥の院) Ontake eruption 2014: 58 hikers killed (5 missing) most of them by flying rocks. Similar eruption to Tongariro 2012, so many lessons (e.g. need for effective communications & warnings)
  16. 16. 16 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Toilets  “Dissatisfaction rates relatively high” Angus Assoc 2012 (annual numbers c 85,000)  Plan to double number of toilet pans and locations in 2 years & reduce waste volume. CAPEX $500,000  Difficult siting decisions to minimise impact on scenic, cultural & aesthetic values  Personal poo kits practical? Top: DOC; bottom: Bubs Smith
  17. 17. 17 2005: “Integrated use limits” aka “carrying capacity” identified: exceeded when >550- 600 people-counts/day 2012: number confirmed ≥ 600 counts/day = negative perceptions, sense of crowding, detracts from experience 20% of survey days in 2005 had ≥600 counts 34% in 2012 had ≥600 55% in Jan-April 2016 had ≥600 3 days with ≥2000 counts in 2016 ≈ 40% of NZ Ranker reviewers now mention crowding etc Crowding perceptions Peak day queue up Red Crater ridge: at the chain section requested by concessionaires
  18. 18. 18 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Over-use/over-crowding needs multi- facetted solution:  Staggering of start times often suggested (since 1990s): it’s occurring but problem not solved  Booking or quota system or user- charge: taxpayer discount  Transport management (most visitors use concession transport)  Concession management – legal constraints (but less when environment & safety issues?)  Planning process-integrity of Management Plan process, more focused consultation, other govt funding 2005 2012
  19. 19. 19 Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Suggested revision of goals “We have a responsibility to ensure people can enjoy our wild places while protecting the integrity of the environment” Hon. Maggie Barry, Minister of Conservation, SS booklet 1. Limit numbers: ensure the world- class visitor experience is protected and provides ongoing economic benefits to tangata whenua and other local communities 2. Manage transport logistics: work with concessionaires to ensure their businesses assist with goal 1 3. Optimise risk management: pay more heed to the alpine volcanic environment & visitor responsibility 4. Protect values: cherish Tongariro National Park World Heritage Area 5. Emphasise TAC’s value: bring together & unify mountain communities Top: Bubs Smith; bottom: DOC
  20. 20. 20 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Internationalvisitorarrivalsandforecast VisitorNumbers(basedonrawKetetahicounterdata) Annual visitor numbers and projections Annual Ketetahi totals (counter 100073031 corrected for missing data) for non-eruption episode years Annual Ketetahi totals directly affected by eruption episode corrected for missing March 2012 data Synthetic Ketetahi totals during eruption episode Ketetahi Model with compound growth rate of 8.6% Projected Ketetahi totals with 6% compound average growth rate (MBIE forecast to 2020) International Visitor arrivals (MBIE) International visitor arrival forecast (MBIE 2016, with compound average growth rate of 6%) Calendar year Visitornumbers
  21. 21. 21 Visitor use peaks in summer- raw counter data on TAC
  22. 22. 22 TAC rescue operations: police-organized (≈ 70% of total). Average 2x10-4 ops/person
  23. 23. 23 Crowding: examined in 1993-96, 2005 & 2012 surveys 2005 2012 2015/16 Bubs Smith photos • Red Crater area most crowding reported • Ketetahi roadend largest increase
  24. 24. 24 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA Quote from Blaschke & Whitney 2007 • Currently, transport concessions do not impose any limits on the number of walkers able to be carried, so that on busy days transport operators have unlimited discretion to run additional busloads. Comments made during the focus group discussions identified a number of further issues with the concession process. Allegations and anecdotal information were provided concerning conditions of concessions not being adhered to, under-reporting of numbers of walkers carried, and the presence of non-authorised operators within the park providing transport services and in some cases guiding services to significant numbers of walkers. • DOC’s intention for the concession system is that it “helps the Department to ensure that the various concession activities are compatible with the primary aim of protecting the land and other resources. It also helps to make sure that services and facilities provided for visitors are appropriate, of a suitable standard and that other activities do not conflict with visitor enjoyment.” (http://www.doc.govt.nz/About-DOC/Concessions/index.asp). • It would be difficult to argue that the current system for transport concessions for the Crossing achieves this stated intention.
  25. 25. 25 What they say about the TAC • DOC brochure 1990s: “Often described as the best one day walk in NZ” • Lonely Planet: “one of the world’s greatest one-day hikes” • Wikipedia: “among the most popular day hikes in the country” • Trip Advisor: Rating 5*, 1056 reviews (85% excellent, 12% VG, 0.2% terrible) • NZ Rankers: 90%*, 788 reviews • *caution with these stats
  26. 26. 26 Eruption on TAC The TAC on the NZ risk landscape
  27. 27. 27 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald Cities on Volcanoes Conference Yogayakarta, INDONESIA TAC with existing & proposed toilet sites Angus Associates 2012 Additional slides for reference
  28. 28. 28 Summary in Bamford 2014: Currently the Department of Conservation and Ngati Hikairo Ki Tongariro are assessing their options for sustainably managing the TAC. Their 5 objectives are: 1. Develop and future-proof the TAC as a sustainable world-class visitor experience; 2. Increase knowledge, respect and understanding of the values of Tongariro National Park (TNP); 3. Use the TAC to promote and grow the region(s) and to ensure that it contributes to the economic sustainability of local communities; 4. Provide economic opportunities and resources for the development of Ngati Hikairo ki Tongariro; 5. Use the TAC to bring together and unify mountain communities.
  29. 29. 29 History of the Crossing Pre 1900s: trails to Ketetahi Springs (medicinal & cultural) & birding Early 1900s: bridle trail Papakai over to Waihohonu Hut/coach rd 1920s-40s: tramways built for logging in Ketetahi bush 1950s & 60s: Park develops track with tramping club assistance 1960s-early 90s: “Tongariro Crossing” track restoration & upgrades: Summer Programme crossing & Ketetahi Springs very popular 1986: 1st public transport From 1993: OSH/access/fee option negotiations with Ketetahi Trust Early 1990s: crowding concerns raised 2007: “Alpine” added to name because of safety concerns 2008 & 2011: deviations circumventing eroded area & Ketetahi land 2012-13: eruption episode prevents access to full TAC until May Towards co-management with iwi in last 20 years
  30. 30. 30
  31. 31. 31 Visitor surveys and other references • Angus & Associates 2012 • Bamford 2014 • Blaschke & Whitney 2007 • Coomber & Leonard 2005 • Dhellemmes 2016 • Gibson 1996 • Keys, Williams and Leonard 2014 • Olsen 2001 • Slee and Curtis 1993 • Visitor counters Acknowledgements to Bubs Smith and other photographers, DOC & police colleagues, GNS Science and Canterbury University

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