The strategic thinker finds strategic knowledge in the complex and chaotic data stream of everyday living
22 million Xbox 360s sold as at Sept 2009 – put on market in May 2005 Use as a phone 22 million members of Stardoll The Coming of Age in Second Life .
Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist from NASA The Bill of Rights for 21st Century America
Massive increase in brain power generated by education and inter-connections 80 percent of all scientists that have ever lived are alive today
Latest UN-World Bank report estimates pandemic would cost $US3 trillion, says many poorer countries have defective contingency plans
About 1.5 billion in 1900 Implications for food and water – long term global sociol conflict seems inevitable without serious food and water policies To summarise the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young.
50 Year from Today
Over 1 million industrial robots are working today
The total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008
State of the Future 2008: Change to Low mortality and low fertility – see pages 16 and 17- Over 25% of the world (excl Africa) will be over 60 years of age. In contrast, Africa will be more like 10% over 60 years of age 50 Years from today - One per person – page 5 So today, if you are 30 with a baby, in fifty years you may be 80 looking after the same baby. 92 in 2030 plus longer – World Futures Conference – Maddy Dychtwald and Fifty years from now – page 5 Fifty Years from Now – obesity – page 27
Sustainable Future methodology, Version 2, Page 17
For fifty years he has been the feared fighting chief, the most successful arrioe…he had been celebrated for his courage, cleverness, resourcefulness and skill in diplomacy – one of the greatest contemporary leaders in the traditional Maori style - mana
First – page 104, Second – page 113, went to England to float two of the required loans - http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A060356b.htm He was responsible for the establishment of the Government Life Insurance Office and the Public Trust, thus launching a tradition of state involvement for which New Zealand is noted. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1O48-VogelSirJulius.html Also- NZ minister to make an official visit to the United States – in this case to establish a regular steamer between NZ and San Franscio – page 116
Second Bounce of the Ball
The Second Bounce of the Ball . sustainablefuture.info
Futures Studies <ul><li>P robable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction </li></ul><ul><li>P ossible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative) </li></ul><ul><li>P referred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary) </li></ul><ul><li>P resent trends: indicators, broad macro-changes </li></ul><ul><li>P anoramic views: systems thinking, integral futures, and ‘big picture’ attempts </li></ul><ul><li>Q uestioning: the necessary questioning and critiquing of all of the above, all of the time. </li></ul>
Steps Towards Scenarios <ul><li>Define project parameters, trends, driving forces </li></ul><ul><li>Explore uncertainties and rank </li></ul><ul><li>Build scenario worlds, write stories, test </li></ul><ul><li>Use consider implications, review, communicate </li></ul>
An avatar is a computer user's representation of himself/herself or alter ego. Virtual reality (VR) is a technology which allows a user to interact with a computer-simulated environment, be it a real or imagined one.
Jerome C. Glenn – Director, The Millennium Project and co-author of the State of the Future, 2008 Joseph Coates, Professional Futurist, New York
The Maths – Why we count <ul><li>97 billion have lived </li></ul><ul><li>90 have died </li></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 7 billion alive </li></ul><ul><li>3 billion currently live on $2 or less </li></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 4 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Less than half are financially and physically independent </li></ul><ul><li>So we in the room are representative of about 2 billion that have time and $ to make a difference </li></ul><ul><li>So 2 billion into 97 – we are unique…but there is more </li></ul>
Wild Card 2 <ul><li>Terrorism & War </li></ul><ul><li>Crime </li></ul><ul><li>War </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear War </li></ul>Wild Card 3 <ul><li>Health & Safety </li></ul><ul><li>Antibiotic R. </li></ul><ul><li>Pandemic </li></ul><ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul>Wild Card 1 <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Info </li></ul><ul><li>Nano </li></ul><ul><li>Bio </li></ul>Given the - increase in population - climate change & - the existence of wildcards
2008 2058 2008 In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day. In 2058, the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young . 2008 2058
80% of all scientists are alive today Things are looking up…
Man & Machine? Man is expected to create a machine with the equivalent of a human brain by 2029…
<ul><li>Crime is now global </li></ul><ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>20,000 active nuclear weapons </li></ul>
Our generation can expect a life expectancy of 92 – 100 years of age. Our children, if we fail to manage their weight gain, will have 80 year old bodies in 50 year old skin.
Watch for Weak Signals <ul><li>Responses for Powerful counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Responses for Small counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build alliances (state of Australia, Pacific Alliance?) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to shape (lead by example) </li></ul></ul>
Report 14 State of New Zealand’s Future Report 15 Scenarios: Exploring New Zealand’s long-term future NEW ZEALAND’S NATIONAL ASSETS Report 7 The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape (2009) Report 8 The State of Publicly Funded Science (2009) Report 9 The State of Infrastructure (2009) Report 10 The State of Natural Resources (2009) Report 11 The Essence of New Zealand’s Identity (2009) Report 12 Towards a Tikanga-Kaupapa Perspective on Sustainability (2009) Report 16 A National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand Report 13 A SWOT Analysis: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (2009) Report 6 History of Past Future Thinkers (2009) Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New Zealand measures up against international commitments (August 2007) A NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY NEW ZEALAND’S GOVERNMENT Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies: Reviewing the landscape 1990-2007 (August 2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government: Existing initiatives for sustainable development (March 2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development: Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand (October 2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of a National Sustainable Development Strategy: Learning from international experience (October 2008) Part 2: Scenarios Part 1: Research Part 3: Strategy
Our Methodology Fail Fail Fail New Zealand does not manage its strengths and weaknesses and… New Zealand does manage its strengths and weaknesses and.. … the World does not manage its opportunities and threats … the World does manage its opportunities and threats Scenario Matrix
Te Rauparaha ( 1760s-1849 ) For fifty years he was the most feared fighting chief and at one stage controlled about ¼ of NZ. He was celebrated for his courage, cleverness, resourcefulness and skill in diplomacy – making him one of the greatest contemporary leaders in the traditional Maori style. He was also considered to be the creator of the famous haka: Ka mate! Ka mate!
Julius Vogel ( 1835-1899) Immigration and Works Scheme 1870 A development plan designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth, included roads in the North, railways in the South…in ten years the Government would bring about results that would otherwise have taken decades to achieve …“do more to put an end to hostilities and to confirm peaceful relations, than an army of ten thousand men’… “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists…[who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.”