Foresight - what will happen or what is needed in the future. http:// en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Foresight Strategy - a plan of action designed to achieve a goal in the future http:// en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Strategy
Notes to Audience: 94% of NZ is under water …..Not just the land, but the sea Calculation: Land area – 267,710 km 2 - CIA Marine Exclusive Economic Zone – 4,101,633 km 2 - Sea Around Us Project Total Area – 4,369,343 km 2 Percentage of total land – 267,710 / 4,369,343 * 100 = 6.13% Area of New Zealand underwater – 93.87% Sea Around Us Project - http://www.seaaroundus.org/eez/554.aspx CIA - https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/nz.html Note: In the presentation at the WFS Conference we used 96%. This was the figure from the ‘State of the Future Report’, prepared by the Institute of Policy Studies (2010, 17). World’s fourth largest exclusive economic zone See http://www.onepetro.org/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=OTC-6326-MS&soc=OTC Not just three islands – a lot to manage, many assets Source (map): Adapted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NZ_Realm_of_New_Zealand.png See also http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Realm_of_New_Zealand_Exclusive_Economic_Zones.png See also http://www.linz.govt.nz/hydro/projects-programmes/continental-shelf/undersea-image/index.aspx
Notes to Audience: NEW country Source (graph): ‘The state of New Zealand’s Environment 1997’, MfE, retrieved 06 April from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/ser/ser1997/html/figures/figure8.3.html
Notes to Audience: Source (images): Portrait: Alexander Turnbull Library Reference No. PA1-o-423-11-6, Whare: Alexander Turnbull Library, Reference: PA7-36-24 “ Tāwhiao was born at Orongokoekoea Pā (near Taumarunui) during the Musket Wars. His father, Pōtatau Te Wherowhero, was the leader of the Waikato people. In 1858 Pōtatau was installed as the first Māori King, his purpose being to promote unity among the Māori people in the face of Pākehā encroachment. Pōtatau died in 1860 and was succeeded by Tāwhiao who reigned for thirty-four years during one of the most difficult and discouraging periods of Māori history. During this period there were de jure two governments; English law and governance prevailed within the British settlements and Māori law or custom over the rest of the country. However the Pākehā population was increasing rapidly while the Māori population was either static or declining. This was also the period when the British felt they had a manifest destiny to rule the world. The presence of an independent native state was seen by many as intolerable particularly as it occupied most of the territory of the North Island and thus had the potential to undermine the colonial government's sovereignty. In 1863 on very slim pretexts and in defiance of the Treaty of Waitangi the Colonial Government, backed by some fourteen thousand Imperial troops, invaded the Waikato, King Tāwhiao's territory. The Waikato people put up a strong defence but inevitably were forced to retreat. The conquered land was confiscated, altogether about a million acres (4,000 km²).Tāwhiao and his people moved southwards, into the territory of the Ngāti Maniapoto, the area of New Zealand that is still known as the King Country.” Retrieved July 2009: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tāwhiao
Notes to Audience: Sir Julius Vogel, was the 8th Prime Minister of New Zealand. First – page 104, Went to England to float two of the required loans - http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A060356b.htm Second – page 113, He was responsible for the establishment of the Government Life Insurance Office and the Public Trust, thus launching a tradition of state involvement for which New Zealand is noted. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1O48-VogelSirJulius.html Third – Page 16 Also first NZ minister to make an official visit to the United States – in this case to establish a regular steamer between NZ and San Franscio – page 116 Source (text): Dalziel, Vogel.
Notes to Audience: SFI is not alone…..See Sustainable Future’s Think Piece 10, Lost in Space for more initiatives. 1982: Commission for the Future Over 20 publications 6 years 1990-91: Porter Project 2000 participants 2 years 2001: Knowledge Wave 450 participants 3 days 2008: One Measurable Goal 112 comments 3 months 2009: National Job Summit 210 participants 1 day 2007-2010: Project 2058 19 publications 4 years Source (timeline): Sustainable Future (2009).
Note to Audience: No mandate to speak on behalf of NZ
Notes to Audience: Started with 75, took down to 21 – see page 51 Distinguish between primary and secondary change agents. Source (figure): Sustainable Future (2008). Four Futures for New Zealand in 2058 . Sustainable Future: Wellington.
Notes to Audience: Franz Joseph glacier. The area surrounding the two glaciers are designated a World Heritage Site. “ The glacier is currently 12 km long and terminates 19 km from the Tasman Sea. Fed by a 20 sqm large snowfield at high altitude, it exhibits a cyclic pattern of advance and retreat, driven by differences between the volume of meltwater at the foot of the glacier and volume of snowfall feeding the névé. Due to strong snowfall it is one of the few glaciers in New Zealand which is still growing as of 2007, while others, mostly on the eastern side of the Southern Alps, have been shrinking heavily, a process attributed to global warming. “ See http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Glacier “ Initially there will be some beneficial effects for agriculture; such as enhanced growing conditions, longer growing seasons and less frost risk (provided adequate water is available)…But by 2050, agriculture and forest production is likely to be reduced. There is likely to be increased risks of droughts and fire over parts of eastern NZ and increased risks of floods over parts of western NZ. Water security and pest management will increasingly be an issue. Land use will need to change. Also reduced demand for energy, as winters will not be as cold – and flows in western rivers are likely to increase, benefiting hydroelectric generation and irrigation supply. Coastal development and infrastructure will be challenged. This may impact on transportation, drainage and sewage systems. Global demand for food is also likely to increase, and so is global population. Source (figure): National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://www.maf.govt.nz/mafnet/rural-nz/statistics-and-forecasts/sonzaf/2008/page-02.htm Source (image): Geoff Spearpoint Global demand for food is also likely to increase, and so is global population. Source (figure): National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://www.maf.govt.nz/mafnet/rural-nz/statistics-and-forecasts/sonzaf/2008/page-02.htm Source (image): Geoff Spearpoint
Notes to Audience: 1. No big changes 2. Overseas Experience (OE) 3. It is about composition – by 2058; see Sustainable Future Think Piece 5: Hard Work. Source (graph): Wikimedia Commons, using figures from Statistics New Zealand, retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_Zealand_population_over_time.png
Notes to Audience 11% ethnically a New Zealander in 2006 census – See Report 8, Effective Maori Representation in Parliament; working towards a National Sustainable Development Strategy (2010) Source (data): Statistics New Zealand (2009a). Demographic trends report 2007. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Retrieved June 30, 2009 from http:/www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/dem-trends-07/downloadable-excel-tables.htm Years are not spaced regularly. Note: the graph has been adjusted to take into consideration the population estimates in 1840 (Belich, 1996:178) Māori people are the tangata whenua (indigenous people) of New Zealand. A Māori is a person who identifies with or feels they belong to the Māori ethnic group (Population and Sustainable Development, 2009). Statistics NZ (2009a). Demographic trends: 2009. Tables: Part 1. Retrieved May 5, 2010 from http://www.stats.govt.nz/Publications/PopulationStatistics/demographic-t rends-2009.aspx Belich, J. (1996). Making peoples: A history of New Zealanders from Polynesian settlement to the end of the nineteenth century. Auckland: Penguin . https:// remote.sustainablefuture.info/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL = http://www.stats.govt.nz/Publications/PopulationStatistics/demographic-t
Notes to Audience: Preservation part of our genetic makeup Source (image): Geoff Spearpoint . C amp at tarn under Mt Zampa, Spenser Mountains, Lewis end 4/07. Total Area of National Parks in New Zealand: 30669 square kilometres / total square area 270467 (United Nations Pocket Book, World Statistics 2008)
Source: ( Adapted from MED, 2010: 11) This graph indicates that New Zealand’s primary energy supply has grown substantially over the past 35 years, almost doubling in total petajoules. For the most part this growth has occurred across the range of energy supply options. Gas and geothermal have seen the greatest growth whilst hydro has remained relatively static and coal has shrunk. Petajoules - The joule is the Système International (SI) derived unit of energy and heat. Its consistent use simplifies comparisons between different forms of energy and between energy supplied or consumed in New Zealand and overseas. A joule is the energy required to heat 1 cubic centimetre of water by about a quarter (0.239) of a degree Celsius, or the energy needed to lift a kilogram about 102 millimetres. A PJ is 1015 (1,000,000,000,000,000) joules (MED, 2010: 168). Primary energy supply - The amount of energy available for use in New Zealand for energy transformation and end use. It includes energy as it is first obtained from natural sources, which means that coal is accounted for as it is mined, indigenous oil and natural gas as they are extracted from wells, imported oil and oil products as they are imported, and hydro as it is used for electricity generation (assuming efficiency of 100%). Geothermal is accounted for on the basis of its use as an input to electricity generation including cogeneration, plus an estimate of losses, own use and geothermal used directly as a heat source. It accounts for imports and exports, and makes allowance for any stock change. By convention, fuels used for international transport are excluded from total primary energy supply. Thus, total primary energy supply is calculated as indigenous production, plus imports, less exports, less stock change, less international transport. (ibid) Ministry of Economic Development (MED) (2010). New Zealand Energy Data File 2010. Retrieved July 14, 2010 from http://www.med.govt.nz/upload/73585/EDF%202010.pdf Note: This slide is different from the pie charts used on the 9 th July 2010 at the World Future Society Conference. Unlike the pie charts (which showed the mix), this graph also shows the overall change in volume over time, and is therefore considered more useful.
Notes to Audience 1. One Big Farm – four issues emissions, water, hooves and nitrates Source (images): Phillip Capper, available as part of the Creative Commons from http://www.flickr.com/photos/flissphil/2494725635/ Source (graph): Sustainable Future (2008). Think Piece 6: While AgResearch Fiddled. Data a dapted from: FAO, CIA, Statistics New Zealand, Dept. for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (UK) & Australian Bureau of Statistics. See ‘Workings for Figure 1’, available for from http://www.sustainablefuture.info/Site/Publications/Think_Pieces.aspx
Notes to Audience Infusion over last 200 years Kau-pa-pa K ye-tee-ah-kee-t ah n-gah Source (image): Wendy Schotsmans, available on Flickr as part of the Creative Commons, http://www.flickr.com/photos/wendyschotsmans/135002051/sizes/o/ This is Tane Mahuta, Maori for &quot;lord of the Forest&quot; . It is the largest Kauri tree (pronounced cow-ree) in existence. Although there are taller kauris and stouter kauris around, this one wins overall. It is hard to accurately estimate the age of Tane Mahuta, but it may be that Tane Mahuta sprang from a seed around 2000 years ago during the lifetime of Jesus Christ. Trunk girth 13.77 m (45.18 ft), Trunk height 17.68 m (58 ft), Total height 51.2 m (167.98 ft), Trunk volume 244.5 m³, Total volume including the crown 516.7 m³ Source: http:// images.google.co.nz/imgres?imgurl =http://i1.treknature.com/photos/567/oct_27_05_156.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.treknature.com/gallery/photo32418.htm&usg=__UhH6O2M2zs7PeZsK83cT3NwlZic=&h=800&w=540&sz=167&hl= en&start =7&sig2=oTRB6oNPJXg57q0IFCcP1Q&um=1&tbnid=7E-DAtcxb-PWjM:&tbnh=143&tbnw=97&prev=/images%3Fq%3DNZ%2Bnotes%26hl%3Den%26rlz%3D1T4ADBR_enNZ240NZ240%26sa%3DN%26um%3D1&ei=93rWSYLkOZuwtAOWoJGwCg
Note to Audience I have been trying to think of the earth as a kind of organism, but it is no go. I cannot think of it this way. It is too big, too complex, with too many working parts lacking visible connections. The other night, driving through a hilly, wooded part of southern New England, I wondered about this. If not like an organism, what is it like, what is it most like? Then, satisfactorily for that moment, it came to me: it is most like a single cell. – Lewis Thomas http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Thomas
Note to Audience Foreshore and Seabed GE Free
Notes to Audience 1. Aluminium smelter 2. The Save Manapouri campaign later used it to stop the level of Lake Manapouri from being raised - 1973.
Notes to Audience: Exports critical and Imports related to exports Source (exports data): Retrieved 2009 from http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/global-new-zealand/2008/key-points-july08.htm Exp Dairy 22% $8.8 billion and Imp Fuels and oils $7.1 billion (16%) Source (imports data): Retrieved 2009 from http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/global-new-zealand/2008/key-points-july08.htm Source (image): Retrieved 2009 from http://www.odt.co.nz/files/story/2008/11/forecasts_are_for_a_much_reduced_export_lamb_crop__5346824854.JPG
Notes to Audience 1. Negative effects – increased diary farms
Notes to Audience 1. Globalisation is critical for NZ's future Source (data): Adapted from Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (1997). New Zealand Consolidated Treaty List As At December 1996 . (Part 1: Multilateral Treaties, and Part 2: Bilateral Treaties). Wellington: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. First Free Trade agreement with China Created refrigerated transport – 1880s
Notes to Audience 1. ANZUS treaty 1951 - 1984 Source (image): Available under Creative Commons at http://www.flickr.com/people/111emergency/
Notes to Audience 1. Early adapters, love gadgets Source (graph): http://www.digitalstrategy.govt.nz/Resources/Publications/digital-strategy-2-draft/Introduction/Progress-since-2005/
Sources: Columns 1, 2, 4 and 5 adapted from UNDP, Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a dived world. Retrieved 6 July 2010 from http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf Column 3 adapted from UNDP, Human Development Report 2009. Overcoming barriers: Human mobility and development. Retrieved July 6, 2010 from http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2009/
Source: Sustainable Future (2009). Project 2058 Methodology version 3 . Sustainable Future: Wellington. Adapted from C. Ilbury & C. Sunter (2001). The Mind of a Fox: Scenario planning in action . Cape Town: Human and Rousseau Tafelberg.
Notes to Audience: 1. Workshop Source (images): Sustainable Future. Scenario Workshop, Waikanae April 2008
Source: Report 6: Four Futures for New Zealand (2008)
Notes to Audience Source: Report 6: Four Futures for New Zealand (2008) Which future is likely to prevail? p46 What should we be looking for? p47 How can we shape our future? p47 Implications p48-49 United Nations? What is Acceptable? What is Possible? What are the Obstacles? What should we Focus on? Watch for: Fortress Mentality Disparities Leadership/Complacency Privacy/Transparency
Photo by Nelson Minar and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons http://www.flickr.com/photos/nelsonminar/
Photo by Danny Williams. Available on Flickr as part of the Creative Commons. Retrieved July 2009 from http:// www.flickr.com/photos/pressthebuttononthetop / / CC BY 2.0
Photo taken by Lana (Solyanka) and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons. http://www.flickr.com/photos/solyanka/
NEXT STEP – finish the Rese ar ch reports and then write the strategy Source (photo): Getfrank, retrieved 06 April 2009 from http://www.getfrank.co.nz/assets/images/Halfwidth/NewFolder/_resampled/ResizedImage429295-nz.jpg ======================================================================================================================
Notes to Audience Three questions still to explore
Source (photo): retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://farm1.static.flickr.com/52/108605088_71856b2fb7.jpg?v=0
Moving from Foresight to Strategy sustainablefuture.info
Land Use 20 40 100 60 0 80 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Alpine zone Tussock Scrub, wetlands and dunes Exotic grassland Settlements and crops Exotic forest Native forest Total land area (%) Main period of Maori expansion Main period of European expansion
Treaty of Waitangi 1840 On 6 February 1840, the Treaty was signed between representatives of Queen Victoria and approx 500 Māori, (13 were women).
Māori King Movement 1858 King Tāwhiao (1822 – 1894)
Julius Vogel (1835-1899 ) Vogel implemented an immigration and works scheme designed to revive the economy. “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists [who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated. ” Prime Minister 1873
1976-1982 Commission for the Future 2009 National Job Summit 2008 One Goal Project 1991 Porter analysis – Upgrading New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage 2001 Knowledge Wave Conference 2007- 2010 Sustainable Future Project 2058 - Aims to develop a National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) The New Zealand Experience 2010 2000 1990 1980
<ul><li>Sustainable Future Institute </li></ul><ul><li>Is an independent think tank specializing </li></ul><ul><li>in research and policy analysis. </li></ul><ul><li>Project 2058 </li></ul><ul><li>The strategic aim is to promote integrated long-term thinking, leadership and capacity-building so that New Zealand can effectively explore and manage risks and opportunities over the next 50 years. The method to achieve this aim is to produce a National Sustainable Development Strategy. </li></ul><ul><li>Presentation </li></ul><ul><li>Part I: Research </li></ul><ul><li>Part II: Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Part III: Strategy </li></ul>About Sustainable Future Institute
Project 2058 – The Method (c) Future Thinkers Online Video Interviews: World Futures (July 2008 and July 2009) Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future (December 2008) James Duncan Reference Library (October 2009) A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand The Future of Infrastructure in New Zealand* Report 9 Government-funded Science Under the Microscope* Report 10 The State of New Zealand’s Resources* The Future of Food and Agriculture* The State Sector: Looking Forward* (b) New Zealand’s National Assets Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of Māori (2010) Report 8 Effective Māori Representation in Parliament, (2010) A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand* Online Video Interviews: World Futures (2008 and 2009) Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future (2008) James Duncan Reference Library (2009) (c) Future Thinkers Part I: Research Part II: Scenarios Part III: Strategy (d) State of New Zealand’s Future* Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy (2007) (a) New Zealand’s Government Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies (2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government (2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development (2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of an NSDS (2008) National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand* Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (2008)
Part I: Research Wild Cards <ul><ul><li>15. Pandemic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>16. Tsunami </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>17. Drought </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>18. Volcanoes and earthquakes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>19. Astronomical events </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20. Extreme weather </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>21. Terrorism, Biological and chemical warfare </li></ul></ul>Global Drivers of Change <ul><ul><li>8. Political systems and institutions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9. Economic models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10. Management of ecosystems and resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>11. Infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12. Security and conflict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>13. Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>14. Information, learning and ideas </li></ul></ul>Secondary Change Agents <ul><ul><li>1. Climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. Population and demographics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. Ecosystems and biodiversity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. Resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6. Values and beliefs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7. Justice and freedom </li></ul></ul>Primary Change Agents
Ecosystems and Biodiversity 11% National Park Year Est. Area (km2) Abel Tasman 1942 225 Mount Cook 1953 707 Arthur's Pass 1929 1144 Egmont 1900 335 Fiordland 1952 12519 Kahurangi 1996 4520 Mount Aspiring 1964 3555 Nelson Lakes 1956 1018 Paparoa 1987 306 Raikiura 2002 1500 Te Urewera 1954 2127 Tongariro 1887 796 Westland Tai Poutini 1960 1175 Whanganui 1986 742 Total Area in Parks 30669
Benchmarking: Human Development Total Human Development Index Includes Education Index Disparity of income ( ratio of richest 10% to poorest 10%) Includes RST expenditure (% GDP) Includes GDP (per capita) (UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008) (UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008) (UNDP Human Development Report, 2009) (UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008) (UNDP Human Development Report, 2007/2008) 1. Iceland (0.968) 1= Australia (0.993) 1. Azerbaijan (2.9) 1. Israel (4.46) 1. Luxembourg (60 228) 3. Australia (0.962) 1= New Zealand (0.993) 2. Japan (4.5) 20. Australia (1.70) 16. Australia (31 794) 16. United Kingdom (0.946) 6. Norway (0.991) 34. India (8.6) 25. Russia (1.17) 27. UAE (25 514) 19. New Zealand (0.943) 12. Iceland (0.978) 72. New Zealand (12.5) 26. New Zealand (1.16) 28. New Zealand (24 996) 20. Italy (0.941) 18. UK (0.970) 94. United States (15.9) 27. Ukraine (1.16) 29. Greece (23 381) 177. Sierra Leone (0.336) 177. Burkina Faso (0.255) 142. Namibia (106.6) 91. Peru (0.10) 174. Malawi (667)
Part II: Scenarios 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2009 2 4
<ul><li>Responses of Powerful counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Responses of Small counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disrupt </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt / Innovate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Monitor closely what is happening </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Build alliances (e.g. State of Australia, Pacific Union) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leadership - lead by example </li></ul></ul>Indicators
<ul><li>Small countries like New Zealand might have a limited ability to influence world events… </li></ul><ul><li>… but we can still </li></ul><ul><li>shape the future. </li></ul>
New Zealand will never be the puppeteer… … but we can be part of the audience, and that means we can decide to give a standing ovation or boo the performance.
We can show global players how changes should be made – not because they have to listen to us… … but because small countries have put in place something that powerful countries want.
New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver Part III: Strategy
Three Questions <ul><ul><li>Question 1: What lifestyle do we want for ourselves, our children and our grandchildren? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Question 2: What we are going to sell to the world that fits with those values? - Food and Fibre (consumption) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Tourism (experience ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Technology (skills and IP) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Question 3: How are we going to make this work? </li></ul></ul>