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New Zealand in 2058

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This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the NZ Risk Management Soceity Conference. 6 November 2008

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New Zealand in 2058

  1. 1. New Zealand in 2058 sustainablefuture.info
  2. 2. Jerome C. Glenn – Director, The Millennium Project and co-author of the State of the Future, 2008 Joseph Coates, Professional Futurist, New York
  3. 3. An avatar is a computer user's representation of himself/herself or alter ego. Virtual reality (VR) is a technology which allows a user to interact with a computer-simulated environment, be it a real or imagined one.
  4. 4. Strategic Knowledge Data Information
  5. 5. Futures Studies <ul><li>Probable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction </li></ul><ul><li>Possible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative) </li></ul><ul><li>Preferred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary) </li></ul>
  6. 6. Steps Towards Scenarios <ul><li>Define project parameters, trends, driving forces, assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Explore uncertainties and rank </li></ul><ul><li>Build scenario worlds, write stories, test </li></ul><ul><li>Use consider implications, review, communicate </li></ul>
  7. 7. The Future of Mankind?
  8. 8. The Maths – Why we count <ul><li>97 billion have lived </li></ul><ul><li>90 have died </li></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 7 billion alive </li></ul><ul><li>3 billion currently live on $2 or less </li></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 4 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Less than half are financially and physically independent </li></ul><ul><li>So we in the room are representative of about 2 billion that have time and $ to make a difference </li></ul><ul><li>So 2 billion into 97 – we are the 2% </li></ul>
  9. 9. 2008 10 billion years 0 4.45b 5.55b Be like the habilis - the archetypal jack-of-all-trades, inquisitive scavengers prepared to try almost anything to survive. Be tough, active, gregarious and noisy, always on the move and always alert to the possibility of a …meal. Don't be like the boisei – whose behaviour was specialised for survival in only one niche, they didn't make it. They live within a strict social structure and are led by a dominant male whose strength and power holds the group together. The boisei 's specialisation has locked them into one way of living, and when their niche no longer exists, neither can they. But the habilis can adapt to a changing world - their generalist trait lives on in us. Two million years ago, evolution tells us…
  10. 10. Neanderthals Homo sapiens In the South - have developed a mind capable of imagination - a creature capable of understanding and anticipating possibilities, with the gift of abstract thought. In the North - have physical power but did not survive 2008 10 billion years 0 4.45b 5.55b About 100,000 years ago … evolution tells us
  11. 11. Wild Card 1
  12. 12. 2008 10 billion years 2058 2008 - 2058 50 Years Project 2058 Big Bang
  13. 13. Futures Studies <ul><li>Probable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction </li></ul><ul><li>Possible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative) </li></ul><ul><li>Preferred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary) </li></ul>
  14. 14. Report 14 State of New Zealand’s Future Report 15 Scenarios: Exploring New Zealand’s long-term future NEW ZEALAND’S NATIONAL ASSETS Report 7 The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape (2009) Report 8 The State of Publicly Funded Science (2009) Report 9 The State of Infrastructure (2009) Report 10 The State of Natural Resources (2009) Report 11 The Essence of New Zealand’s Identity (2009) Report 12 Towards a Tikanga-Kaupapa Perspective on Sustainability (2009) Report 16 A National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand Report 13 A SWOT Analysis: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (2009) Report 6 History of Past Future Thinkers (2009) Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New Zealand measures up against international commitments (August 2007) A NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY NEW ZEALAND’S GOVERNMENT Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies: Reviewing the landscape 1990-2007 (August 2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government: Existing initiatives for sustainable development (March 2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development: Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand (October 2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of a National Sustainable Development Strategy: Learning from international experience (October 2008) Part 2: Scenarios Part 1: Research Part 3: Strategy
  15. 15. Fifty Years Into The Future 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2008 2 4
  16. 16. <ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Demography </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Production </li></ul><ul><li>Food & Water </li></ul><ul><li>Values & Beliefs </li></ul><ul><li>Justice & Freedom </li></ul><ul><li>Management of Ecosystems & Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Security & Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Governance & Institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Information & Ideas </li></ul>Wild Cards Change Agents Response to Change Agents
  17. 17. Wild Card 2 <ul><li>Terrorism & War </li></ul><ul><li>Crime </li></ul><ul><li>War </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear War </li></ul>Wild Card 3 <ul><li>Health & Safety </li></ul><ul><li>Antibiotic R. </li></ul><ul><li>Pandemic </li></ul><ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul>Wild Card 1 <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Info </li></ul><ul><li>Nano </li></ul><ul><li>Bio </li></ul><ul><li>Given the </li></ul><ul><li>increase in population </li></ul><ul><li>increase in per capita consumption </li></ul><ul><li>- climate change & </li></ul><ul><li>- the existence of wildcards </li></ul>
  18. 18. 2008 2058 2008 In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day. In 2058, it may be 6 billion. The developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young . 2008 2058
  19. 19. 80% of all scientists are alive today Things are looking up…
  20. 20. Going Up
  21. 21. Going underneath
  22. 22. Going underwater
  23. 23. … Leaving
  24. 24. Man & Machine? Man is expected to create a machine with the equivalent of a human brain by 2029…
  25. 25. <ul><li>Crime is now global </li></ul><ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>20,000 active nuclear weapons </li></ul>
  26. 26. Our generation is likely to have a life expectancy of 92 – 100 years of age. Our children, if we fail to manage their weight gain, will have 80 year old bodies in 50 year old skin.
  27. 27. Watch for Weak Signals <ul><li>Responses for Powerful counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Responses for Small counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build alliances (state of Australia, Pacific Alliance?) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to shape (lead by example) </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. Te Rauparaha ( 1760s-1849 ) For fifty years he was the most feared fighting chief and at one stage controlled about ¼ of NZ. He was celebrated for his courage, cleverness, resourcefulness and skill in diplomacy – making him one of the greatest contemporary leaders in the traditional Maori style. He was also considered to be the creator of the famous haka: Ka mate! Ka mate! NZ
  29. 29. Julius Vogel ( 1835-1899) Immigration and Works Scheme 1870 A development plan designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth, included roads in the North, railways in the South …“do more to put an end to hostilities and to confirm peaceful relations, than an army of ten thousand men’… “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists…[who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.” NZ
  30. 30. 2058 New Zealand Rural Urban Population Mix NZ
  31. 31. Is this a good deal in 1908?1958? 2008? 2058? NZ
  32. 32. Livestock NZ
  33. 33. Agriculture Air Soil NZ Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options) Quantity (Value Add) Quality (Assurance) Water
  34. 34. Our Findings Fail Fail Fail     New Zealand does not manage its strengths and weaknesses and…     New Zealand does manage its strengths and weaknesses and.. … the World does not manage its opportunities and threats … the World does manage its opportunities and threats Scenario Matrix
  35. 36. Why do you think scientists and engineers were able to devise the atomic bomb in only four years and put a man on the moon in only eight years? What factors were necessary for these accomplishments?
  36. 37. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver
  37. 38. sustainablefuture.info

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