Notes for Rick: Step change required in NZ’s performance Strategy = reallocation -> goal
So in summary what do we find. Apart from education we compare poorly with other OECD countries on average and this is particularly evident among Māori and Pacific youth.
Education though appears to be an area where at age 15, our youth perform well compared to others in the OECD on the Programme for International Student Assessment or PISA. We have more students performing at the higher levels on average, and do not have a ‘long tail’ of underachievers. But if we look into the results in more detail.
What we find is that educational disadvantage is concentrated in Māori and Pacific ethnic groups, which perform at “fair” levels only. And these differences, compared to Asian and Pakeha New Zealanders, have persisted for many years.
This figure shows that 45% of New Zealand’s total unemployed are youth, the highest proportion among OECD countries in 2009. However when we break this down, we found that New Zealand’s 20-24 year olds have a share close to the OECD average, but for 15-19 year olds the position is very different.
Here we plotted the share of the labour force against the share of unemployed for OECD countries for 15-19 year olds, and this reveals that New Zealand is an outlier.We have a greater proportion of our youth in the labour force than many other countries at 7% but they represent 27% of those who are unemployed. In other words our youth are shouldering a more significant burden of unemployment than those in other countries.Other countries are shielding their young people by keeping them in education and training until they are much older.
The two proposals our paper identified appear to be the most important and accessible opportunities to materially improve outcomes for disadvantaged youth in New Zealand.I will take each of these in turn.
That improved learning delivers student engagement, and there are substantive issues with this for some of our youth.By age 16, an estimated 36% of students are reported to be usually or always bored and 29% rarely or only occasionally enjoy learning, and one quarter want to leave school as soon as they can, or already have (Wylie, 2009, p.2).It is much better to keep students engaged that to try to re-engage them. Improved engagement leads to better learning, to staying at school longer and for many obtaining better qualifications. This enables youth to compete more successfully for jobs reducing levels of unemployment.E-learning is a powerful tool for this and we have seen it work.
Pt. England School in Glen Innes is a decile 1 school with a 60% of its students Pacific and 32% Māori. It has used e-learning techniques for some years with good results...lifting the low average performance of 5 year old entrants, where 90% of 5 year olds throughout the country performed better, to the position where in Year 7 (age 12), the class average was above the NZ average for reading.Manaia View School in Whangarei is also a decile one school with 94% of its students Māori. In 2010 89% of its year 7 and 8 students performed at or above the level expected for their age in reading and 71% in writing. The corresponding figures for 2008 were 58% and 32% respectively.So what needs to be done...
Leadership NZ - Rick Boven
Navigation 101 Presentation to theLeadership New ZealandFuture Thinking Workshop Rick Boven 28 October 2011 www.nzinstitute.org www.nzahead.org
Economic Setting direction SocialLeadership Aligning Environmental Motivating 2
LOW PRODUCTIVITY EXPORT SECTORS Size of bubble reflects share of total workers 3% 2% Agriculture, forestry, fishing & mining 1% Compoundannual growth Manufacturingrate in output, Tourism 2000-2009 0% -1% NZ average OECD $60 Australia $71 $49 -2% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Estimated 2009 output per hour worked, 2010 NZ$Note: Data includes export and domestic. Sources: The Conference Board (2011) Total Economy Database. OECD datasets: Employment;Hours worked. Statistics New Zealand: Tourism Satellite Account; Quarterly Employment Survey; Gross Domestic Product. 3
NEW ZEALAND’S ECONOMIC TRANSITION International markets TARGET STATE FOCUS production Domestic CURRENT STATE Commodity Differentiated goods goods and services EFFORT
MANY OPPORTUNITIES TO GROW HIGH VALUEDIFFERENTIATED EXPORTSValue-added food businesses that are anchored hereNiche manufacturing, including selected clean-tech, where a small exporter canbe a world leader, avoiding scale disadvantageICT, where distance and scale are less important barriers to success• Lifting capability in these industries helps domestic productivity tooServices sectors where world class technology can be acquired and NZ labourcosts are relatively low• Successes in engineering, education, financial, medical etc.• Competitive advantage can be increased by legal innovation TOP 100 INTERNATIONALLY ORIENTED TECHNOLOGY BUSINESSES EXPORT AROUND $5b pa WITH VERY HIGH PRODUCTIVITY 5
PLUGGING THE GAP 6 Image courtesy of Lee ter Wal Design
PERCENT AT EACH PROFICIENCY LEVEL ACROSS READING, MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE, 2009 30 25 20 15 10 5 New Zealand OECD average 0 Below Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6 Level 1 (Highest)Source: OECD (2010). 9
MEAN PISA RESULTS ACROSS READING, MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE BY ETHNICITY 560 2000 03 06 09 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 Pacific peoples Māori Asian Pākehā/EuropeanSource: Education Counts (2000, 2003, 2006, 2009). 10
YOUTH AGED 15-24 AS PERCENT OF TOTAL UNEMPLOYED, 2009 50 45 40 35 30 OECD average 25 20 15 10 5 0Source: OECD (2010). 11
SHARE OF LABOUR FORCE COMPARED TO SHARE OF UNEMPLOYED, AGED 15-19, 2010 30 New Zealand Australia 20 UK Sweden Netherlands Share of Denmark unemployed, % Canada Finland Chile Austria 10 USA Turkey Israel Switzerland Italy Ireland Luxembourg Germany Japan Hungary 0 0 10 20 30 Share of labour force, %Source: OECD (2011). 12
VICIOUS CYCLE Poor Many Serious economic social issues disadvantaged outcomes 5 year olds Many Disengaged unemployed students Unsuccessful Leaving school school to work early with low transition qualifications 13
TWO PROPOSALS TO REDUCE YOUTH DISADVANTAGE Accelerate roll-out Improve the of e-learning school-to-work to low decile schools transition 14
E-LEARNING DELIVERS ENGAGEMENT,BETTER LEARNING AND LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT Staying at Engagement schoolE-learning Less youth unemployment Better Better learning qualifications 15
VALUE ADDED SNAPSHOT FOR READING AT PT. ENGLAND SCHOOL 9 8 7 6 2009 Stanine 2008 2010 NZ average 5 2007 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 School yearSource: Pt. England School (2010). 16
CO2 CONCENTRATION IN ATMOSPHERE, JULY 1990-2011, PPM 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2011) Atmospheric CO2. 17
AVERAGE OF COMMODITY PRICES, 2000 = 100 600 500 400 300 200 100 0Note: Commodities include aluminium, copper, crude petroleum, gold, iron ore, maize, rice, silver and wheat.Source: The World Bank (2011) Commodity Price Data. 18
THE COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION Output = TQ Lα KβTQ represents the effectiveness of the technology of productionL and K represent the amounts of input of labour and capitalrespectivelyThe parameters α and β indicate how much the output changes withchanges in the inputs 19
EVERYTHING WE FOCUS ON MEANS WE MISSSOMETHING ELSE 20
PARADIGM CONFLICTEconomic – 20th Century thinking Environmental – 21st Century thinkingEconomy is small relative to environment Economy is large relative to environmentWith limited exceptions, resources can Resource and waste sinkbe taken from the environment and constraints, and accumulatedwastes can be released to the environmental damage threaten outputenvironment without adverse growth and human well-beingconsequencesEnvironmental issues resolved by Environmental threats increasing andsubstitutes, technologies and market responses are insufficientinstrumentsThe future will be an extension of the The future will be different from the pastpastSocietal objective should be to maximise Societal objective should be to avoid riskGDP 21
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?Commodity prices will continue to increaseCountries will manage supply chain risks and become more self-sufficientGlobalisation may slow or even reverseSocietal management will become more complex and difficultPower may be more centralised initially and fragmentation may developlater 22
IMPLICATIONS FOR NEW ZEALANDIncreasing prices for commodity exportsIncreasing attractiveness to migrants and investors as a relatively safehavenStrategy to grow exports of high value goods and servicesInvestment in innovation and skillsNew performance metrics to emphasise the quality and effects ofeconomic growthRisk management will become a more important priority 23
WHEN GOVERNMENTS FAIL, WHY DO THEYFAIL?“In the first stage, mental standstill fixes the principles and boundaries governing a politicalproblem.In the second stage, when dissonances and failing function begin to appear, the initialprinciples rigidify.This is a period when, if wisdom were operative, re-examination and rethinking and a changeof course are possible, but they are as rare as rubies in a backyard.Rigidifying leads to increase of investment and the need to protect egos; policy formed on errormultiplies, never retreats. The greater the investment and the more involved in it the sponsor’sego, the more unacceptable is disengagement.In the third stage, pursuit of failure enlarges the damages until it causes the fall of Troy, thedefection from the Papacy, the loss of a trans-Atlantic empire, the classic humiliation inVietnam....Persistence in error is the problem.” - Barbara Tuchman The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam (1984) 24