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Foresight activities in New Zealand


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Foresight activities in New Zealand

  1. 1. Foresight Activities in New Zealand
  2. 2. Project 2058 – The Method (a) Government (b) National Assets Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of Report 1 A National Sustainable (c) Future Thinkers Māori (2010) Development Strategy (2007) (c) Ideas Online Video Interviews: World Online Video Interviews: Report 8 Effective Māori Representation Futures World Futures in Parliament (2010) Report 2New Zealand Central (July 2008 and July 2009) (2008,2009 and 2010) Government Strategies Research and Analysis (2007) Report 9 Government-funded Science Online Video Conversations: Ideas Under the Microscope (2011) Onlinethe Future about Video Conversations: Ideas (December Report 3 Supporting Local about 2008) the Future A: Report 10 The State of New Government (2008) (2008) Zealand’s Resources* James Duncan Reference Library Report 4 Institutions for (October 2009) James Duncan Reference Library The Future of Infrastructure in NewPart 1: Sustainable Development (2008) (2009) A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand* Zealand The Future of Food and Agriculture* Report 5The Common Elements A History of Future Thinkers in New The State Sector: Looking Forward* of an NSDS (2008) Zealand (2011) (d) State of New Zealand’s FutureStrategy Scenarios Part II: B: Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (2008)Part III: C: National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand*
  3. 3. A: Park ScenariosNational Park Year Est. Area (km2)Abel Tasman 1942 225Mount Cook 1953 707Arthurs Pass 1929 1144Egmont 1900 335Fiordland 1952 12519Kahurangi 1996 4520Mount Aspiring 1964 3555Nelson Lakes 1956 1018Paparoa 1987 306Raikiura 2002 1500Te Urewera 1954 2127Tongariro 1887 796Westland Tai Poutini 1960 1175 11%Whanganui 1986 742Total Area in Parks 30669
  4. 4. Ministry for RecreationMarilyn Fitty Park
This is a public park. Itis open 24/7 and you can make as much noise hereas you like. It is all about fitness, hobbies, horses,bike tracks & fishing etc. 
Area: 450 km2 As at 1 January 2040
  5. 5. Ministry for Economic Development
Coal Range ParkThis is a private park. Rights to remove itscontents, whether it be trees or minerals, areauctioned every two years by the Ministry.
Area:1500 km2 As at 1 January 2040
  6. 6. Ministry for Conservation
Happy Hiking ParkThis is a public park. It is open 24/7 but you can onlywalk, you cannot bring anything with wheels onto thisland. It is for current and future generations.
Area:800000 km2 As at 1 January 2040
  7. 7. Ministry for the WildernessWild River Park
This is a private park. It isopened to the general public only one weekend ayear. Flora, fauna and non-human landscapes arestrictly protected by the Ministry.Area: 1200000 km2 As at 1 January 2040
  8. 8. B: New Zealand Scenarios Strategic Knowledge Information Data
  9. 9. Example 1: Long-term Fiscal Position 2009 Source: Treasury (2009) Challenges and Choices New Zealands Long-term Fiscal Statement. Page 32
  10. 10. Example 2: Population
  11. 11. Ethnicity Ethnic Share Of New Zealand Population (percent) Adapted from Statistics New Zealand, projections from series 6 % 90 80 8% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2016 2026 European & Other Māori Asian Pacific
  12. 12. Example 3: Management of Resources 100 Alpine zone 80 Tussock Scrub, wetlands and dunes Exotic 60Total land area grassland Native forest 40(%) Exotic forest 20 Settlements 0 and crops 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Main period Main period of Maori expansion of European expansion
  13. 13. Implications: Agriculture Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options) Soil Air Water Quality Quantity (Assurance) (Value Add)
  14. 14. Example 4: Energy Generation Share of Total Energy Generation in 1980 Share of Total Primary Energy Generation in 2008 other gas other oilrenewables 16% renewables 19% 0% 1% oil coal gas 6% 20% 26% biomassbiomass 6% 6% geothermal 17% geothermal hydropower coal 22% 26% 19% hydropower 12%
  15. 15. Example 5: Earthquakes Ten years of shallow 35° S earthquakes in New Zealand (Depths < 40 km) Magnitude 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 40° 7-8 45°
  16. 16. 21 Drivers of Change Primary Policy Drivers Levers 8. Political systems and 1. Climate change institutions 2. Population and 9. Economic models demographics 10. Management of 3. Ecosystems and ecosystems and biodiversity resources 4. Energy 11. Infrastructure 5. Resources 12. Security and conflict 6. Values and beliefs 7. Justice and freedom Drivers of 13. Technology 14. Information, Change learning and ideas Wild Cards 15. Pandemic 16. Tsunami 17. Drought 18. Volcanoes and earthquakes 19. Astronomical events 20. Extreme weather 21. Terrorism, Biological and chemical warfare
  17. 17. Four Scenarios Well NZ Well World Poor Poor
  18. 18. Resulting ThemesResponses from Powerful counties – Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or – Serious engagement with all the problems of the planetChoices for Small counties – Option 1: Ignore – Option 2: Become an intelligent country • Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) • Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) • Build alliances and networks • Try to shape (lead by example)
  19. 19. C: StrategyNZ: Mapping our FutureWorkshop March 2011 Pre-Workshop Nation Dates (220 events) Workbook (Report 12) Future Studies Course (Dr Peter Bishop) Workshop Part 1 – Setting the global context Part 2 – Where New Zealand is today Part 3 – Preparing strategy maps Part 4 – Presenting and judging strategy maps Part 5 – Three workstreams Part 6 – Presentations to Members of Parliament Post-Workshop Strategy Map (Report 13) Feedback (Working paper) Reflections by Participants (e-book) Nation Dates (440 events)
  20. 20. 1. Communicating our
  21. 21. Strategy Pyramid * * *
  22. 22. Strategy Map 1 Strategy name: occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant. Participants included: Equam r erumqui blaborrum et aut dio magnis invendit pliamus, nem suntis The objective (vision) the strategy is designed to achieve is Net quid que et que dio. Itas mos r e lam consedGroup quas a quatem sitaspe liciis et per o ommolores aliquia de erum r e cumquatur maximilit eius, to omnia plab idebis aut veleserr o blabo. Ut volor es ne lab incti dior ept aturepedis eos es mosseritia occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant. nimaximusam, voluptatur auditio sanducit aut.Exercise The niche (scope) in which the country intends to operate is ... poritior min r epel idest quid expera sum quis r epro ommodio. Et il et optaten daecupt iumqui utem lat dignis anisciis ear cia seque nonseque pr em fuga. Et dest, sit lant aut est, alitati r em et ad quo endi ut etur restest molendipis aligni optatur sequam, sandae parcipitibus ni r em re vero cus ex eos sequi bea quae voluptatis dolum et eicide et fugiantur? Nosaped quo temolendem lantio dunt qui Output 2: Explore what New Zealand does dif ferently, nihillorem volore vene pe porr ovidem et apitatem better or uniquely compar ed to others. Illustrate our qui dolessit inciunt utatum ar ciaecum laboriberum Figure 1: Listener cover 2058 advantage through the design of a Coat of Arms for 2058. sequistrum fuga. Nam hictotate cum ius ut Output 1: Develop a vision and illustrate this thr ough a With respect to this, think of the emblems or symbols Ihit, optatia speria voluptatque simolup tiorcover for the New Zealand Listener in 2058 that delivers us este you believe represent New Zealand and where you would i the ends that the strategy is designed to achieve. position them in relation to each other. am aut et aut asperit eici tem. Nestem nobit occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant. doluptatus et evenihit dolor e nonsequi il miligen turiatur, adiscillo omnimoluptat molecti or epro que. Strategy Mapping for New Zealand The means (advantage) by which the country will achieve this objective is ... (see strategy map occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant. Citizens Results for the Country The Vision Luptam fuga. Imposse optate nihicimus pra quas ipsandaest, cus autempora quamus et magnimint dolorruptas ex er ovit et labor es tianimaxim alique nus vollit volenducius nonet es dolo Nus, utae. Figure 2: New Zealand Coat of Arms Outcomes Based on Clear Market Positioi n n g The Strategy LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL CHAMBER PRESENT ATIONS AND ADDITIONAL P APERS | 11 Drivers Driven by Processes and Activtie s (Themes) Enablers Built on Our Development Bases Output 3: Design a strategy map for New Zealand that shows the scope, as in what New Zealand should focus on or not, and what technologies and practices the country will employ .
  23. 23. Vision, Advantage, Scope model
  24. 24. Worksheet 1
  25. 25. Worksheet 1 cont…
  26. 26. Worksheet 2
  27. 27. The Designers
  28. 28. The Legislative Council Chamber• New Zealands Upper House met from 1865 to 1951• Second debating chamber - New Zealand equivalent of the British House of Lords• Now used for formal occasions, in particular for the state opening of Parliament
  29. 29. Output 3: Strategy Map – Group 2
  30. 30. Resulting Themes• A place where talent wants to live• Bi-cultural and Multi-cultural New Zealand• Youth need a voice• 3 year election cycle is too short• Constitutional Review (See• Need for a strategy• Degree of urgency• Need for greater participation
  31. 31. Legislative Council Chamber Thank You