As Good As It Gets

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This talk was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute to visiting International Honours Progam Students, Massey University. 11 February 2009

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  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image.
  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image.
  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image.
  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image.
  • Permission of the Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image. First – page 104, Second – page 113, went to England to float two of the required loans - http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A060356b.htm He was responsible for the establishment of the Government Life Insurance Office and the Public Trust, thus launching a tradition of state involvement for which New Zealand is noted. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1O48-VogelSirJulius.html Also- NZ minister to make an official visit to the United States – in this case to establish a regular steamer between NZ and San Franscio – page 116
  • The strategic thinker finds strategic knowledge in the complex and chaotic data stream of everyday living
  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image.
  • Sustainable Future methodology, Version 2, Page 17
  • Manapouri – Aluminium smelter. Pictures property of W. McGuinness, with two exceptions. Black and White images in foreground: The Minister of Justice, Mr Riddiford, with Mr R C Nelson and Mr D McCurdy 26 May 1970 Reference number: EP/1970/2278/9-F Christine Foxall of the Royal Forest and Bird Society, Wellington [ca 3 February 1970] Reference number: EP/1970/0489/26A-F Permission of the Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of these images.
  • Also featured in Think Piece 6: While AgResearch Fiddled. Complete sources available here: http://www.sustainablefuture.info/Site/Publications/Think_Pieces.aspx
  • Also featured in Sustainable Future Think Piece 5: Hard Work.
  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image. About 1.5 billion in 1900 Implications for food and water – long term global social conflict seems inevitable without serious food and water policies To summaries the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young.
  • Permission of Sustainable Future, Wellington, New Zealand, must be obtained before any re-use of this image. The total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008
  • As Good As It Gets

    1. 1. Is This As Good As It Gets ? sustainablefuture.info
    2. 2. <ul><li>97 billion have lived on Earth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But 90 have died </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 7 billion alive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But 3 billion currently live on $2 or less </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 4 billion wealthy alive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But about half of the 4 billion are financially or physically dependent on someone else </li></ul></ul><ul><li>So … we represent the 2 billion </li></ul><ul><li>We are the 2% that can make a difference ! </li></ul>The Big Picture: Why you count?
    3. 9. King T ā whiao 's whare at Te Kuiti, Māori King 1860-1894
    4. 10. Julius Vogel ( 1835-1899) Immigration and Works Scheme 1870 A development plan designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth, included roads in the North, railways in the South …“do more to put an end to hostilities and to confirm peaceful relations, than an army of ten thousand men’… “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists…[who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.”
    5. 11. Strategic Knowledge Data Information Sustainable Future
    6. 13. 2008 10 billion years 2008 - 2058 50 Years Project 2058: Into the Future Big Bang
    7. 14. Project 2058: Into the Future 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2008 2 4
    8. 15. <ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Demography </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Production </li></ul><ul><li>Food & Water </li></ul><ul><li>Values & Beliefs </li></ul><ul><li>Justice & Freedom </li></ul><ul><li>Management of Ecosystems & Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Security & Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Governance & Institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Information & Ideas </li></ul>Wild Cards Change Agents Response to Change Agents Project 2058: Change Agents
    9. 16. Project 2058: Four Futures Fail Fail Fail Scenario Matrix … the World does manage its opportunities and threats … the World does not manage its opportunities and threats New Zealand does manage its strengths and weaknesses and..     New Zealand does not manage its strengths and weaknesses and…    
    10. 17. <ul><li>Responses for Powerful counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Responses for Small counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build alliances (state of Australia, Pacific Alliance?) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to shape (lead by example) </li></ul></ul>Project 2058: Watch for Weak Signals
    11. 18. Local Hot Spot: Damn the Dam
    12. 19. Local Hot Spot: Livestock
    13. 20. Local Hot Spot: Agriculture Air Soil Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options) Quantity (Value Add) Quality (Assurance) Water
    14. 21. Local Hot Spot: Constitution Māori Māori Pakeha STAGE ONE STAGE TWO STAGE THREE New Zealanders Pakeha Māori
    15. 22. Local Hot Spot: Race Relations
    16. 23. Local Hot Spot: Foreshore and Seabed
    17. 24. Local Hot Spot: Genetic Modification
    18. 25. 2008 2058 2008 In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day. In 2058, it may be 6 billion. The developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young . 2008 2058 Global Hot Spot: People
    19. 26. <ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>20,000 active nuclear weapons </li></ul>Global Hot Spot: Crime
    20. 27. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver
    21. 28. sustainablefuture.info

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