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As Good As It Gets


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This talk was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute to visiting International Honours Progam Students, Massey University. 11 February 2009

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As Good As It Gets

  1. 1. Is This As Good As It Gets ?
  2. 2. <ul><li>97 billion have lived on Earth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But 90 have died </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 7 billion alive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But 3 billion currently live on $2 or less </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We are part of the 4 billion wealthy alive </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But about half of the 4 billion are financially or physically dependent on someone else </li></ul></ul><ul><li>So … we represent the 2 billion </li></ul><ul><li>We are the 2% that can make a difference ! </li></ul>The Big Picture: Why you count?
  3. 9. King T ā whiao 's whare at Te Kuiti, Māori King 1860-1894
  4. 10. Julius Vogel ( 1835-1899) Immigration and Works Scheme 1870 A development plan designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth, included roads in the North, railways in the South …“do more to put an end to hostilities and to confirm peaceful relations, than an army of ten thousand men’… “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists…[who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.”
  5. 11. Strategic Knowledge Data Information Sustainable Future
  6. 13. 2008 10 billion years 2008 - 2058 50 Years Project 2058: Into the Future Big Bang
  7. 14. Project 2058: Into the Future 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2008 2 4
  8. 15. <ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Demography </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Production </li></ul><ul><li>Food & Water </li></ul><ul><li>Values & Beliefs </li></ul><ul><li>Justice & Freedom </li></ul><ul><li>Management of Ecosystems & Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Security & Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Governance & Institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Information & Ideas </li></ul>Wild Cards Change Agents Response to Change Agents Project 2058: Change Agents
  9. 16. Project 2058: Four Futures Fail Fail Fail Scenario Matrix … the World does manage its opportunities and threats … the World does not manage its opportunities and threats New Zealand does manage its strengths and weaknesses and..     New Zealand does not manage its strengths and weaknesses and…    
  10. 17. <ul><li>Responses for Powerful counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Responses for Small counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build alliances (state of Australia, Pacific Alliance?) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to shape (lead by example) </li></ul></ul>Project 2058: Watch for Weak Signals
  11. 18. Local Hot Spot: Damn the Dam
  12. 19. Local Hot Spot: Livestock
  13. 20. Local Hot Spot: Agriculture Air Soil Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options) Quantity (Value Add) Quality (Assurance) Water
  14. 21. Local Hot Spot: Constitution Māori Māori Pakeha STAGE ONE STAGE TWO STAGE THREE New Zealanders Pakeha Māori
  15. 22. Local Hot Spot: Race Relations
  16. 23. Local Hot Spot: Foreshore and Seabed
  17. 24. Local Hot Spot: Genetic Modification
  18. 25. 2008 2058 2008 In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day. In 2058, it may be 6 billion. The developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young . 2008 2058 Global Hot Spot: People
  19. 26. <ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>20,000 active nuclear weapons </li></ul>Global Hot Spot: Crime
  20. 27. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver
  21. 28.