Ecological safety of Russia and aviation emissions

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Ecological safety of Russia and aviation emissions

  1. 1. Center for Environmental Innovations December 1—2, 2011 EU – Russia Air Transport: Today and Tomorrow Brussels Ecological safety of Russia and aviation emissions www.ngo-cei.ru www.forest-climate.ru President of the NGO CEI, PhD , docent of the Department of Economics of the MSU Stetsenko Andrey V.
  2. 2. Climate , international arrangements <ul><li>Annex 1 countries should reduce emissions by 25-40% below 1990 by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>The G8 (2008) agreed to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>At COP 15 in Copenhagen President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would ratify the next climate agreement under two conditions: </li></ul><ul><li>All countries of the World will participate </li></ul><ul><li>Forests will be adequately included </li></ul>
  3. 3. Russia has a great potential of the forest CO 2 absorption * The Russian Federation National Inventory Report of Anthropogenic Emissions and Absorption by Sink of Greenhouse Gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol,1990 - 2009 ** Olson I.S., Watts I.A., Allison I.Y. Carbon in the live vegetation of major World ecosystems. Oak Ridge Nat.Lab. E.S.D., 1983. Publ. 1997. 164 pp *** The carbon cycle in Russia / ed. G .А. Zavarzin . М.: 1999 Area of ​​forests - 553.3 mln ha Timber resources - 61.1 bln m 3 Carbon reserves in the Russian forests* - 97.1 mln tons Increase in the World, C/year ** - 60.2 mln tons Increase in the Russian ecosystems, C/year *** ≈ 4,5-5 bln tons Increase in the Russian forests, C/year- 0.332 bln tons
  4. 4. The annual volume of the global carbon market (billion tons of CO2 ) Source : Point Carbon Russian JI 2011 33 projects totaling 60 mln tons of C02-eqv Without Forest Projects ! Others JI projects CDM Eur. Trade System The annual volume of the global carbon market (billion tons of CO2 )
  5. 5. At whose account can be planted forests? <ul><li>Aviation emissions will grow by 2-9% till 2050! Ways forward: </li></ul><ul><li>Purchase reduction, </li></ul><ul><li>Investment in carbon projects </li></ul>Source: IPCC report. Global CO2 emissions from aviation: Rapid growth in most of scenarios! Example - Aviation : <ul><li>It’s necessary to make possible the investment attracting to the forest in the Post - Kyoto </li></ul>
  6. 6. Economic Mechanism of JI, Article 3.3 of Kyoto Protocol СО 2 Financial credit documents, confirming the compensation of СО 2 emissions
  7. 7. Commercial Opportunities on Kyoto Protocol to Russia First budget period 1990 2,0 2000 2008 2012 2017 3,0 2,5 1995 2020 bln tons С О 2 СО2 Emission СО2 Emission under JI projects Opportunity to register carbon sink in the forest ~ 605 mln t СО2 Surplus quotas is a basis for the « Green Investment Scheme » 3-4 bln t СО2 A part of quotas is for JI projects ~ 300 mln t СО2 Basic level (100% of 1990) Emission management is a basis for the internal quotas trade 10-12 bln t СО2 605 mln tons CO2 * 10 Euro = 6 bln Euro
  8. 8. Increase in the Russian forests, C/year Region 2008 М t С year -1 2009 М t С year -1 2010 М t С year -1 Total М t С year -1 Or М t СО 2 Altai 2.2 2 . 9 3 8 . 2 30 Irkutsk 13 . 7 14 . 2 15 42 . 9 157 . 5 Sakhalin 1 . 2 2 . 1 2 5 . 5 20 Kamchatka -0.5 -0 . 3 1 . 3 0 . 6 2 . 3
  9. 9. Increase in the Russian forests
  10. 10. GIS Territorial levels of GIS <ul><li>Global level </li></ul><ul><li>All-Russian level </li></ul><ul><li>Regional level </li></ul><ul><li>Local level </li></ul>Adaptation of the slide from Cosmos <ul><li>Accuracy improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced labor costs </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in labor productivity </li></ul>
  11. 11. International Climate Negotiations It is necessary to strengthen the Russian forest case at the next UN COP 17 Pilot Forest Projects Allies : USA, EU : Austria , Denmark , Sweden , Finland Allies : Developing countries - RRED
  12. 12. Center for Environmental Innovations Thank you for attention! www.ngo-cei.ru www.forest-climate.ru +7-926-911-0514 Stetsenko Andrey V . December 1—2, 2011 EU – Russia Air Transport: Today and Tomorrow Brussels

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