Climate Change and Health of Sundarbans

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  • Ahmadul Hassan, CEGIS
  • Climate Change and Health of Sundarbans

    1. 1. Climate Change and Health of Sundarbans By Ahmadul Hassan Director, R& D and Training Division Email: [email_address] Date: April 14, 2011 Kolkata, India Launch of Sundarbans Pavilion World Wildlife Fund
    2. 2. Ganges Basin Brahmaputra Basin Meghna Basin Background <ul><li>Bangladesh occupies only 7% of the combined catchment area of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin, </li></ul><ul><li>But the country has to drain out 92% of the flow into the Bay of Bengal. </li></ul><ul><li>Too much water in the monsoon and too little water in the dry season </li></ul>
    3. 3. Forest Ecosystem in Bangladesh <ul><li>Tropical evergreen and semi-evergreen forest are mainly hill forest </li></ul><ul><li>The tropical moist deciduous forests commonly known as the plain land ‘Sal’ forest </li></ul><ul><li>The Sundarbans is the largest single tract of natural mangrove forest in the world covers 40% of total forest area of Bangladesh </li></ul>Types of Forest Area (Sq. km) Tropical evergreen and semi-evergreen Forest 6,700 Natural Mangrove Forest and Plantation 6,000 Tropical moist deciduous Forest 12,00
    4. 4. Sundarbans <ul><li>Biodiversity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>350 species of vascular plants, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>250 fishes and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>300 birds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>42 species of mammals are available in this mangrove forest </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It is the homeland of world famous Royal Bengal Tiger </li></ul><ul><li>In 1997, UNESCO declared it as a world heritage sight </li></ul><ul><li>Sundarbans covers an area of 10,000 km 2 of which about 6,000 km 2 are in Bangladesh </li></ul>
    5. 5. Climate Change in Bangladesh <ul><li>Annual average temperature will increase by 0.78°C in 2030 and 1.6°C in 2050 for scenario B1 </li></ul><ul><li>Mean annual precipitation will increase by 6.3% in 2030 and 8.4% in 2050 for scenario B1 </li></ul><ul><li>Sea level will rise about 27 cm by 2050. </li></ul><ul><li>Total saline water area will increase to 17.5% (1 ppt) and 24% (5 ppt) by 2050. </li></ul><ul><li>47 % area in 2025 and 45% area in 2050 will be in no stress condition </li></ul>
    6. 6. Aim of this Research <ul><li>The aim of this research is to find out what are the physical factors which support good health for the Sundarbans </li></ul>
    7. 7. Forest Health Evaluation
    8. 8. Topographical Distribution of Sundarbans   DEM <ul><li>70% of the land goes under water in regular tidal flooding and </li></ul><ul><li>Almost 85% of the land goes under water during high tide in the monsoon season. </li></ul>
    9. 9. Changing Pattern in Distribution of Sundri and Gewa from 1992 to 2001
    10. 10. Changing Pattern in Distribution of Goran and Gewa from 1992 to 2001
    11. 11. Forest Cover Using RS 1992 1995 2001-04-05 DoF 1995
    12. 12. <ul><li>Forces </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Salinity </li></ul><ul><li>Sedimentation </li></ul><ul><li>Change in Inundation </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Anthropogenic Factors (e.g. increased population in buffer zone, illegal extraction, encroachment) </li></ul><ul><li>Forest vegetations </li></ul><ul><li>Sundri- Gewa </li></ul><ul><li>Gewa-Sundri </li></ul><ul><li>Sundri </li></ul><ul><li>Goran-Gewa </li></ul><ul><li>-------- </li></ul><ul><li>Habitat </li></ul><ul><li>Mammals </li></ul><ul><li>Reptiles </li></ul><ul><li>Birds </li></ul><ul><li>Amphibians </li></ul><ul><li>------------- </li></ul>Why have the Changes Occurred
    13. 13. Impact of Salinity on Forest Density Low < 15 ppt Moderate 15-25 ppt High >25 ppt
    14. 14. Survival Performance Under Different Flooding Condition
    15. 15. Forest: Growth Index Modelling M u d f l a t s ( s l o p e ) High-tide water level Low-tide water level R i d g e s o r l e v e e s Back-swamps or basins M a i n r i v e r c h a n n e l hoda nol khagra golpata keora/baen goran Gewa sundari hargoza Present Future Sundri
    16. 16. Suitability of Sundri (Heritiera fomes ) Drainage Density :Low Inundation Salinity Low Medium High Low Good Good Poor Medium Good Poor Poor High Poor Poor Poor Drainage Density :High Inundation Salinity Low Medium High Low Very Good Very Good Good Medium Good Good Poor High Poor Poor Poor
    17. 17. Suitability of Gewa (Excoecaria agallocha ) Drainage Density :Low Inundation Salinity Low Medium High Low Good Very Good Good Medium Good Good Good High Good Good Poor Drainage Density :High Inundation Salinity Low Medium High Low Good Very Good Good Medium Very Good Good Good High Good Good Poor
    18. 18. Suitability of Goran (Ceriops decanda ) Drainage Density :Low Inundation Salinity Low Medium High Low Poor Poor Poor Medium Good Good Poor High Very Good Good Poor Drainage Density :High Inundation Salinity Low Medium High Low Poor Poor Poor Medium Good Good Poor High Very Good Good Poor
    19. 19. Plant Type – Sundari – Health Index Under Different SLR Scenarios
    20. 20. Plant Type – Gewa – health Index Under Different SLR Scenarios
    21. 21. Plant Type – Goran – health Index Under Different SLR Scenarios
    22. 22. Dominant Plant Distribution Under Different SLR condition
    23. 23. Plant Diversification in Sundarbans
    24. 24. Conclusions <ul><li>Due to SLR effects the area of sundarban will change the species composition. </li></ul><ul><li>The “Sundri” will eventually be reduced to almost half from the present extent, whereas “Goran” area will increase and become the dominant forest species. </li></ul>
    25. 25. Suggestion to Improve the Degraded Ecosystem <ul><li>To protect the river dependent ecosystem, we have to keep the river system alive </li></ul><ul><li>Natural resource should not be used at a greater rate than it’s regeneration capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystem has not political boundaries. So, a holistic approach is needed to protect the ecosystem. </li></ul>
    26. 26. User User + Custodian
    27. 27. Thank you

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