Case Study: Leveraging Data in the Superstorm Sandy Aftermath

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Case Study: Leveraging Data in the Superstorm Sandy Aftermath

  1. 1. 16/26/2013 Date June 20, 2013 William H. Bartley P.E. Engineering Consultant, Hartford Steam Boiler Joy Rohde Director of Market Strategy Atmospheric and Environmental Research AER is a Verisk Analytics Company Case Study: Leveraging Data on Wind, Storm Surge and  Electrical Blackout in the Superstorm Sandy Aftermath
  2. 2. 26/26/2013 “Our electrical infrastructure system is a marvel of engineering…for the last century” - Dr. Massoud Amin, University of Minnesota
  3. 3. 36/26/2013 Impact of Hurricane SandyImpact of Hurricane Sandy • Second costliest Atlantic hurricane • Damage near $18 billion • Affected 24 states – Along coast from Florida to Maine – Inland as far as Michigan Analysis by AER Respond™
  4. 4. 46/26/2013 Electrical Blackout during SandyElectrical Blackout during Sandy Business interruption losses are costly: ~One major insurer reported 30% of all Sandy insured losses were BI Peak outage of 8M customers was down to 650K within 8 days (DOE 20th Situation Report) AER – compiled from DOE situation reports
  5. 5. 56/26/2013 Statistics for Blackouts in the U.S.Statistics for Blackouts in the U.S.
  6. 6. 66/26/2013 Number of Significant US Weather-Related Grid Disturbances is Rising Number of Significant US Weather-Related Grid Disturbances is Rising Source: Electric Grid  Disruptions and Extreme  Weather, 2012, Campbell
  7. 7. 76/26/2013 Estimated Annual Costs Associated with Power Outage Estimated Annual Costs Associated with Power Outage >$100 Billion>$100 Billion
  8. 8. 86/26/2013 Factors that Caused Blackouts During Sandy Factors that Caused Blackouts During Sandy • High Speed Winds ‐Near hurricane gusts of up to 90 mph at  coast, but 50‐60 inland ‐12 hour duration for gusts greater factor in loss • Storm Surge ‐responsible for more damage than wind ‐Peak water levels of 14 ft 100 year flood level at 11 ft. • Aging Infrastructure
  9. 9. 96/26/2013 Peak Wind Gusts - SandyPeak Wind Gusts - Sandy
  10. 10. 106/26/2013 AER Respond™ for Hurricane: Preparing for and Responding to Impacts AER Respond™ for Hurricane: Preparing for and Responding to Impacts • Forecast out to 5 days • 6 hourly updates of maximum sustained winds and gusts, timings and durations of wind • Analyses of rainfall to track flooding potential • Neighborhood-level detail Analysis by AER Respond™ Analysis by AER Respond™
  11. 11. 116/26/2013 Fire and Storm Surge Damage: Satellite Imagery of Breezy Point, Queens Fire and Storm Surge Damage: Satellite Imagery of Breezy Point, Queens Pre‐Storm Post‐Storm Archived imagery from Google Commercial satellite imagery sourced,  enhanced, and analyzed by AER Fire area (126 structures) Storm surge evidenced by  residual sand and water
  12. 12. 126/26/2013 Flooding and Substation OutageFlooding and Substation Outage
  13. 13. 136/26/2013 • Cause-of-loss data at the property-specific level used to diagnose claim occurrence, severity and coverage – Reliable estimates of when hazards started, stopped and peaked New Forensic Weather and Satellite Technologies are Becoming Standard Resources in Claims New Forensic Weather and Satellite Technologies are Becoming Standard Resources in Claims 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 ‐1 4 9 14 19 24 Wind Gust (3‐sec mph)  Rain Rate (cm/hr) Flood Depth (ft) Time Sequence of Hazards at the Property LevelPost‐Event Satellite Image of Damages
  14. 14. 146/26/2013 Transmission and Distribution FundamentalsTransmission and Distribution Fundamentals
  15. 15. 156/26/2013 The continental U.S. is divided into three independent grids: Eastern, Western & Texas, with only a few interconnects. The continental U.S. is divided into three independent grids: Eastern, Western & Texas, with only a few interconnects.
  16. 16. 166/26/2013 Power System OperatorsPower System Operators Midwest (MISO)Midwest (MISO) California (CAISO)California (CAISO) New England (ISO-NE)New England (ISO-NE) New York (NYISO)New York (NYISO)NorthwestNorthwest PJMPJM SoutheastSoutheast SouthwestSouthwest SPPSPP Texas (ERCOT)Texas (ERCOT)
  17. 17. 176/26/2013 Utilities and System OperatorsUtilities and System Operators
  18. 18. 186/26/2013 Definitions (North America)Definitions (North America) • Transmission system: Transmission 250,000 to 800,000volts (or 800kV) Moves large amounts of power across states Sub-Transmission 69,000v to 250,000v Moves large amounts of power within a state • Distribution system Delivers power from transmission to customer
  19. 19. 196/26/2013 SubstationsSubstations
  20. 20. 206/26/2013
  21. 21. 216/26/2013 Typical Distribution System Typical Distribution System 15kV bus feeder #1 #2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 = 15kV Primary feeders = 480 or 208 volt Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Network Transformer = pole top transformer Main St Substation 2 Transformers 100 MVA 138kV /15kV 9 feeders 15 kV ea. (n + 2)
  22. 22. 226/26/2013 A closer look at distribution network A closer look at distribution network 208/120v secondary 15kV branches transformers network network protector limiter secondary customer connections "mains"
  23. 23. 236/26/2013 Northern Queens NY DistributionNorthern Queens NY Distribution #3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 = 27kV Primary feeders = Network Transformer (1200 of them) =208/120v Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Customer connection feeder #1 #2 North Queens Area Substation 5 Transformers 93MVA ea 138kV / 27kV 22 feeders (n- 5)
  24. 24. 246/26/2013 New York blackout Northern Queens 2006New York blackout Northern Queens 2006
  25. 25. 256/26/2013 New York blackout Northern Queens 2006New York blackout Northern Queens 2006
  26. 26. 266/26/2013 #3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 = 27kV Primary feeders = Network Transformer (1200 of them) =208/120v Secondary Network cables = Network limiter (fuse) = Customer connection feeder #1 #2 138kV / 27kV 22 feeders (n- 5) Details on Con Ed’s LIC networkDetails on Con Ed’s LIC network • 285 Miles of 27kV feeder cable • 1700 Miles of low voltage cable • 1200 network transformers • Loss of one or more 27kV feeders (black lines) does not affect individual customers • Loss of one or more network transformers does not affect individual customers • Loss of a section of low voltage cable can affect a small segment of customers. • The LIC Network is just one of 57 Con Ed area networks.
  27. 27. 276/26/2013 Power Outage Analysis from satellite nighttime light imagery Power Outage Analysis from satellite nighttime light imagery Alternating Pre/Post‐Storm Views AER Analysis: Areas of most significant outage NYC & Long Island NJ Shore
  28. 28. 286/26/2013 Analysis covers affected counties in NJ, NY, and CT 1. Percent Outage Per Zip Code 1. Percent Outage Per Zip Code
  29. 29. 296/26/2013 2. Percent Outage per Location (zip 07733)2. Percent Outage per Location (zip 07733)
  30. 30. 306/26/2013 Planning for the Next SandyPlanning for the Next Sandy • Are your response resources sufficient? • 5 days before landfall, track expected winds • Begin to plan deployment of Catastrophe Response teams • Understand the likelihood of damage to heavily populated regions • Merge wind forecasts with PIF to estimate potential losses
  31. 31. 316/26/2013 Strategic Partnership between HSB and AERStrategic Partnership between HSB and AER  Provide cutting edge technology and services  solution to comprehensively understand and  assess blackout risk in the U.S., enabling clients to:  Assess financial risk to their business assets  and liabilities from electrical outages  Plan for rapid response to minimize the effect  on businesses and people  Optimize underwriting and portfolio risk  management  Technology will be utilized by insurers and  reinsurers, commercial and industrial firms, and  other businesses Alliance purpose Combine, enhance and commercialize the  blackout risk data, technologies and  expertise that HSB and AER built, calibrated  and applied within our businesses over the  past decade

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