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ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 2
Dear Investors,
MARKET PULSE, the new monthly from ACMIIL, aims to provide insight-
ful...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 3
Contents
Equity
Technical
Derivative
Debt
Commodity
Currency
Mutual Fund
4
7
9
10
12
13...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 4
Exide –Recharge your portfolio
Company Background
Exide Industries Ltd (EIL) incorporat...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 5
Financials
(` in crore)
Particulars Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % Chg
(YoY)
Q4FY13 % Chg
(QoQ)
FY13 F...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 6
PFIZER INDIA LIMITED - SWEET PILL IN A BITTER MARKET
Introduction
Pfizer Inc is the wor...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 7
TECHNICAL VIEW
CNX Nifty:
Closing: 5677.90
(close as on 2nd Aug)	
1-CNX Nifty Index - 0...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 8
Broader Markets:
The CNX small cap index seems to be the worst hit in this year. Its
ne...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 9
DERIVATIVE REPORT
The August series started against a sombre backdrop. Sudden selling i...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 10
MONTHLY
DEBT MARKET REPORT
There has been excitement and confusion this month in the m...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 11
G-Sec Corp Bond
3 yr 8.80% 10.01%
5yr 8.80% 9.80%
10 yr 8.14% 9.47%
15 yr 8.50% 9.50%
...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 12
Gold can lose more shine.
After steady rallying for 12 straight years, gold has come d...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 13
CURRENCY REPORT
Dollar Index:
The US dollar pushed higher against other major currenci...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 14
Technical View:
USD-INR gave a sharp rally from the 57.50 level, marking on all-time h...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 15
Types Of Fund
Equity Funds
Most Equity funds are created with the objective of generat...
ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 16
Disclaimer:
This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do n...
Market pulse august 2013
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Market pulse august 2013

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Market pulse august 2013

  1. 1. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 2 Dear Investors, MARKET PULSE, the new monthly from ACMIIL, aims to provide insight- ful perspectives on all aspects of the market, the equity, debt, derivatives, forex, commodities, and money markets. Discerning and intuitive comments from the analyst teams of each of these segments aim to enlighten our clients on the developments in these segments and their impact on the respective markets. For instance, stock picks from the equity team would help investors zero down on stocks that have attractive valuations and good earnings potential. The team’s sharp observations and opinions based on in-depth research on the debt markets provide would our clients a thorough understanding of the money markets. Further, technical perspectives on the futures, forex, and commodities markets would assist our clients to identify the opportune moments to enter and exit the markets and help them derive benefits from a falling as well as rising market with the right research information at the right time. MARKET PULSE aims to capture the market in all its hues and colors and provides a range of information that helps in making wise investment decisions. Regards, Research Team ACMIIL
  2. 2. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 3 Contents Equity Technical Derivative Debt Commodity Currency Mutual Fund 4 7 9 10 12 13 15
  3. 3. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 4 Exide –Recharge your portfolio Company Background Exide Industries Ltd (EIL) incorporated in 1947, is the largest battery producer in India and one of the leading power storage producers in South Asia. EIL supplies batteries to automotive, industrial, infrastructure development, informa- tion technology, and defense sectors. EIL manufactures storage batteries ranging from 2.5 to 20400 Ampere hour (Ah) capacities, covering a broad range of application. The company has six factories located all over India, two each in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and one each in West Bengal and Haryana. EIL sells its products under Exide, SF, Sonic, and standard Furukawa brands in the domestic market whereas in the international market, it sells its products under DYNEX, Index, and Sonic brands. EIL has a distribution network comprising more than 4,000 dealer outlets. Further- more, the company’s subsidiary has two lead smelting facilities, which supply a significant amount of lead required by the company. EIL has recently increased its stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance to 100%, having bought-out the remain- ing stake (49%) from its partners for `550 crore. Rationale Auto replacement segment to register strong growth: The auto replacement segment is expected to register strong growth due to strong OEM vehicle sales that grew at ~25% CAGR during FY10 and FY11. An automobile battery life is of ~3 years (~2 years for 2Ws) and translates into linear replacement demand from the existing vehicle population. Given the average battery replacement cycle, growth in replacement demand typically tracks the growth in OEM de- mand of the past years. During Q1FY14, the four-wheeler replacement segment grew 7% YoY while the two-wheeler replacement segment grew in excess of 20% YoY. EIL expects the demand to remain strong with double-digit growth expected in FY14. Improved revenue mix to drive margin expansion: EIL has regained the lost market share in the replacement auto- motive market from a low of 25% in May 2012 to ~33% in Q1FY14. The replacement OEM mix is expected to be higher in FY14, given the expectation of weak OEM demand and strong growth in the sales of the replacement segment. Re- placement being a high-margin business would lead to margins staying at elevated levels. The company has also cut down special incentives to dealers since Feb 2013 and increased prices in the replacement market to mitigate cost pres- sure. In the four-wheeler OEM segment, the company market share slipped to 66% from 75% earlier because it stopped supplying batteries to OEM’s, which was not profitable following reluctance to accept price increases. The company has increased its price by 5-6% in the OEM segment, which was over and above the impact of increase in input costs, as the company has complete pass-through agreements with OEMs. Industrial segment’s revenue to grow flat: EIL industrial segment is divided into three sub-segments, inverters (~60% of industrial segment revenue), telecommunications (~18-22% of revenue), and others (Indian Railways, exports and others). During Q1FY14, the industrial/inverter segment saw lower demand, led by the decline in power shortage pos- sibly due to the early and strong monsoon this year. We now expect flat volumes for FY14 in the industrial segment. Stable lead prices in the international market: The LME lead prices are hovering around $2000-2100. We expect international lead price to hover in the $2000-2300 range for FY14. However, sharp rupee depreciation will add pres- sure to the margins in the coming quarter. Since February, lead prices have corrected ~17%. However, in the past three months, the rupee has depreciated almost ~10%. The recent increase in rate in July protects the margin until a USD- INR rate of 60. Any INR appreciation from here will not only result in better margins, but also be a strong stock catalyst. Investment in insurance business: EIL had 51% stake in ING Vysya Life Insurance and it acquired the remaining 49% at `550 crore. EIL is comfortable with its holding presently. The company is not envisaging any major investments in the same, as it has turned profitable and thus, the company would be able to meet a large part of its own commitments internally. However, the management has indicated that by Mar 2014 they would have a suitable partner for the insur- ance business. EQUITY REPORT MONTHLY
  4. 4. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 5 Financials (` in crore) Particulars Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % Chg (YoY) Q4FY13 % Chg (QoQ) FY13 FY12 % Chg Net Sales 1,627.47 1,553.58 4.76% 1,541.20 5.60% 6,372.26 5,325.90 19.65% Expenditure 1,365.03 1,320.81 3.35% 1,336.77 2.11% 5,513.75 4,574.22 20.54% Ebidta 262.44 232.77 12.75% 204.43 28.38% 858.51 751.68 14.21% Other Income 6.21 14.74 -57.87% 30.43 -79.59% 49.68 34.23 45.14% PBIDT 268.65 247.51 8.54% 234.86 14.39% 908.19 785.91 15.56% Depreciation 30.04 27.62 8.76% 28.78 4.38% 122.00 108.37 12.58% Interest 0.36 1.36 -73.53% 0.78 -53.85% 9.06 14.91 -39.24% PBT 238.25 218.53 9.02% 205.30 16.05% 777.13 662.63 17.28% Tax 79.45 66.5 19.47% 58.84 35.03% 237.13 197.94 19.80% PAT 158.80 152.03 4.45% 146.46 8.43% 540.00 464.69 16.21% No. of shares 85 85 85 85 85 EBIDTA % 16.13% 14.98% 7.63% 13.26% 21.57% 13.47% 14.11% -4.54% NPM % 9.76% 9.79% -0.29% 9.50% 2.68% 8.47% 8.73% -2.88% Adjusted EPS 1.87 1.79 1.72 6.35 5.47 Source: Company Recommendation The stock has been taking support at around 115 on several occasions in the past few months, but it faces resistance above 135. It has been consolidating around these levels for the past few months. Ideally, the lower band of 115-120 would be the ideal levels to accumulate the stock. Any panic could bring the stock down to 100 levels. Gradual buying could be considered at declines for a price target of 140-150 in a year time.
  5. 5. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 6 PFIZER INDIA LIMITED - SWEET PILL IN A BITTER MARKET Introduction Pfizer Inc is the world’s largest drug maker, with a 70.75% stake in its Indian subsidiary. The company has been strengthening its base in India for its operations. To achieve this objective, it had bought back 29.52% stake in the Indian arm through an open offer.in April 2010 at ` 830, increasing its stake to 70.75%. Subsequently, the company share has steadily gained and is currently trading at 1040 after touching a high of 1630 in July 2011. Inorganic growth could contribute to growth: The company has more than `12bn cash in its balance sheet lying idle, with interest income of just 6-7%. The management has been talking about the possibility of an inorganic move to utilize the cash and accelerate the growth momentum in domestic market for quite some time now. Thus, this move would be a key growth trigger for the company, which would also help it improve the return ratios. Financial Performance The company has shown steady growth over the years. For Q1FY14, the company has reported revenue of ` 237 cr, up 8% as against Q1FY13 and net profit of `47.63 cr, down 85%, compared with Q1FY13. However, a point to note is that in Q1FY13 the company had spun off its animal health business on April 2, 2012 to Pfizer Animal Pharma Pvt Ltd (PAPPL) and booked a gain of ` 382.52 cr. Besides this exceptional gain, the company posted profit before tax of ` 73 cr as against ` 54 cr in the corresponding previous quarter, reflecting an improved performance. EBITDA margin improved 690bps YoY to 20.2% for the quarter. Going by the sales growth and steady margins, the company could post EPS of approximately `70 to 75 for FY14.The current market price of 1050 discounts the same by approximately 14 times, which looks attractive going by its MNC status. Buying at declines could be considered for a possible price target of 1250 in a year time. Financials (` in crore) Particulars Q1FY14 Q1FY13 % Chg (YoY) Q4FY13 % Chg (QoQ) FY13 FY12 % Chg Net Sales 266.16 242.63 9.70% 281.74 -5.53% 1,050.07 1,095.44 -4.14% Expenditure 221.45 210.33 5.29% 226.89 -2.40% 862.98 897.00 -3.79% Ebidta 44.71 32.30 38.42% 54.85 -18.49% 187.09 198.44 -5.72% Other Income 30.49 25.19 21.04% 31.12 -2.02% 105.24 90.56 16.21% PBIDT 75.20 57.49 30.81% 85.97 -12.53% 292.33 289.00 1.15% Depreciation 2.01 2.09 -3.83% 1.92 4.69% 8.02 9.56 -16.11% Interest 0.08 0.62 -87.10% 0.08 0.00% 0.24 1.91 -87.43% PBT & exceptional item 73.11 54.78 33.46% 83.97 -12.93% 284.07 277.53 2.36% Exceptional Item 0.00 381.10 -100.00% 0.00 0.00% 409.70 0.00 100% Tax 25.48 107 -76.19% 25.97 -1.89% 190.57 92.92 105.09% PAT 47.63 328.88 -85.52% 58.00 -17.88% 503.20 184.61 172.57% No. of shares 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.98 EBIDTA % 16.80% 13.31% 26.18% 19.47% -13.72% 17.82% 18.12% -1.65% NPM % 17.90% 135.55% -86.80% 20.59% -13.07% 47.92% 16.85% 184.35% Adjusted EPS 15.96 110.21 19.44 168.62 61.86 Source: Company EQUITY REPORT MONTHLY
  6. 6. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 7 TECHNICAL VIEW CNX Nifty: Closing: 5677.90 (close as on 2nd Aug) 1-CNX Nifty Index - 02/08/13 Outlook: The weekly chart for CNX Nifty clearly shows that prices are on an uptrend. Prices formed a lower top and a higher bottom, which clearly indicates that there is consolidation happening. July started on a good note. We saw bulls taking control right from the start of the month and buying continued for three consecutive weeks. The entire month was quite volatile with a lot of gaps. A new high of 6093 was formed on the Nifty. However, the index could not sustain that level and within the next six sessions, it corrected almost 7% and went as low as 5675. This action clearly defines the support levels. As of now, the 5620-5610 zone is acting as support for the Nifty. As stated earlier, xx is in a consolidation mode, it has a cluster of supports below this zone too. On the upside, the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is at 5850, would act as a resistance on the way up. Generally, the sentiment is quite bearish. The trend line support has been tested, but the presence of long lower shadows in the 5750-5780 zone suggests that it is positive support. If a closing comes below these levels, the slipping of the Nifty to 5450 cannot be ruled out. Many stocks have corrected and are trading near the support level. Sectoral Outlook: Sectoral Comparison A look at the sectoral reveals the real picture. Given below are the YTD returns starting Jan 01, 2013. It is quite clear that the IT, FMCG, and pharma sectors have kept Nifty buoyant. The realty and metals sectors have been the worst hit and it seems the pain is just about to start for banking. A weakening rupee seems to be putting a lot of pressure. The IT sector was strong due to Infy, TCS, and Tech Mahindra. Hind Unilever and ITC were the forces behind the FMCG index. The met- als sector was heavily beaten down due to Tata Steel, Hindalco, and Jindal Steel. As per a contrarian view, a small exposure can be taken in stocks of this sector. In the banking space, most of the PSU banks are trading below their 2009 lows. Not much strength is seen in this sector. HDFC Bank is holding up quite well and is our best choice. MONTHLY Sector YTD Returns Nifty -2.5% IT 21.8% FMCG 17.8% Pharma 16.9% Energy -3.6% Auto -8.1% Media -8.7% Banking -18.3% Realty -38.6% Metals -41.3% (all values are calculated as per indices closing on 31st July’ 2013)
  7. 7. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 8 Broader Markets: The CNX small cap index seems to be the worst hit in this year. Its nearly 28% low from its Jan 01, 2013 values. Many stocks in the CNX Midcap are trading lower as well. Hind Zinc, NHPC, Sun TV, Bhushan Steel are amongst the heavy weights in CNX Midcap, which have lost heavily. As discussed above, its just the IT, FMCG, and Pharma large caps that have managed to keep our benchmark index CNX Nifty buoyant. Chart Focus: Shanghai Composite Index (China) Closing: 2029.42 (close as on 2nd Aug) The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The index was in a downtrend, which is visible from the weekly chart. As of now, it seems that the supports of 1950-1955 are being held and a breakout can been seen. A minor resistance at 2050, if taken, can help the index rally straight to 2160. We are bullish on the Shanghai Composite Index. Index YTD Returns CNX Nifty -2.5% Nifty Junior -9.5% CNX Midcap -23.7% CNX Smallcap -28.0% (all values are calculated as per indices clos- ing on 31st July’ 2013)
  8. 8. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 9 DERIVATIVE REPORT The August series started against a sombre backdrop. Sudden selling in the last two days of the July series had resulted in the market cracking below 5950, which dampened sentiment. The hangover of the sell-off continues to haunt the market and the downslide persists. The market has slipped even below 5750 now and is nearing the 5650 level .From the derivatives perspective, beginning with the rollover, our observations are as follows: Nifty Overview: The Nifty saw rollover of 72% compared with 44% in the previous month. Rollover was also high compared with the three-month average (54%) and the six-month average (54%).This has been at a premium of 37 basis points compared with 5 points in the previous month. Market-wide rolls were at 80% vs. the previous month’s 76% and the three-month average of 78.4%. Although the Nifty slipped below 5700, some recovery can be expected around the 5650 level. On the upside, the immediate cap would be 5750-5800. Bank Nifty: The index saw rolls of 56% compared with 61% in the previous month. Rollover has been at a premium of 110 points compared with 52 points in the July series. The upside may be capped at 10800. On the downside, the Bank Nifty has already closed below 10000, although it looks oversold. Levels of close to 9800-9900 would see emergence of some short covering. Derivative Indicators: Implied volatility closed at 15.89% against 18.61% in the previous month and historical volatility closed at 21.88% vs. 18.61% in the previous month. Any rise in implied volatility would lead to wide movement in the Index. The Nifty PCR, another leading derivative indicator, opened on a negative note this month at 1 against last month 1.08. From the activity in Nifty options, it is evident that maximum addition of open interest on the call options exists at strike price of 5900 and 6000 (with nearly 48.74 lacs and 69.51 lacs shares outstanding). This indicates that these levels will act as a resistance zone on the upside whereas on the put options front, maximum addition of open interest is at strike price of 5700 and 5600 (with nearly 66.79 lacs and 44.02 shares respectively), indicating a stronger support zone on the downside. Nifty Open interest Observation Last week, we saw a decline in open inter- est in Nifty futures, which indicated long unwinding in the Index after sharp rise on the long side before expiry. Total open in- terest of Nifty futures stands at 16.64 mn shares. This month, we expect open inter- est to rise and volatility in price to remain on either side. Derivative Strategies for Aug month 1. Long strangle in Nifty: BUY NIFTY 5500 PE at `56 and BUY NIFTY 5900 CE at `40 Total Premium: `96 Max loss: `4800. Stop-loss of `50. Target of `160. Max Profit: UNLIMITED 2. Plain vanilla Bank Nifty call – Buy Aug 10200 strike call at `272 for target of `400-430 and stop-loss of `180. 3. Covered Call in Axis Bank: Long Axis Bank futures at `1100 and Sell 1100 CE at `50. Target: `1180 Stop loss: `1060 MONTHLY
  9. 9. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 10 MONTHLY DEBT MARKET REPORT There has been excitement and confusion this month in the money market, with plenty of RBI action in different areas with the objective of protecting exchange value of the rupee. The RBI mopped up liquidity by putting various restrictions on borrowings by banks with the sole purpose of reducing speculation of currency. Furthermore, mutual funds have struggled with redemption pressure. High interest rates have already affected their NAVs. Significant measures taken by the RBI that impacted the interest rate: • RBI lowered banks limit on borrowing under Liquidity Adjustment Facility (7.25%) to `75,000 crore or 0.5% of NDTL. • RBI tightened gold import, making it mandatory to export 20% of the imports. • RBI raised MSF and bank rate to 10.25%. • CRR to be maintained 99% of NDTL on a daily basis, providing little manoeuvrability to banks to participate in the money market. Short-term interest rates shot up immediately. The 90 days treasury bills yield crossed 11% and one-year treasury bills yield crossed 10.75 %. Short-term issuances of CDs of banks virtually dried up. Consequently, the ten-year benchmark yield rose to 8.17% (a fall in price by Rs.5) and it has been trading between 8% and 8.25%. Banks withdrew from short-term mutual funds, resulting in redemption pressure on money market funds to meet their liquidity requirement. One wonders why banks should invest in the money market mutual funds in the first place! Corpo- rate investors were selectively interested in short-term CDs. Investors: Theyieldcurveisinvertedwiththeshort-terminterestrateshigherthanthelong-termrates.Investorswillbenefitbyinvesting inshort-termpaperuntiltheRBIstartsreversal.Moreover,banksarelikelytoincreasetheshort-termdepositratefordeposits uptosixmonths.Therefore,itistherighttimeforretailinvestorstocapturetheincreaseinshort-termrates.Itisagoodmove for institutional investors as well who have surplus cash. Investors would prefer direct investment in short-term instruments, asmostoftheopen-endedliquidfundswouldhavehistoricalinvestmentsdepreciatingbecauseofincrease ininterestrates. Borrowers: Corporate borrowers are having the wait-and-watch attitude before embarking on borrowing program through issuance of CPs. The external commercial borrowing may be attractive, provided the exchange rate stabilises at a level. There has been no significant change in the risk premium over the government borrowing rate during this period. T-Bill CD 1M 10.71% 10.95% 3M 10.80% 10.92% 6M 10.35% 10.51% 1 Yr 9.61% 9.90%
  10. 10. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 11 G-Sec Corp Bond 3 yr 8.80% 10.01% 5yr 8.80% 9.80% 10 yr 8.14% 9.47% 15 yr 8.50% 9.50% Outlook: We believe that these rates will continue during the month of August but may not be able to sustain for a longer term. RBI has been serious about the move to stabilise foreign exchange rate and has categorically stated that it will take steps to sustain growth rate of the economy. Let us keep our fingers crossed and watch out for the RBI’s action for restoration of normalcy.
  11. 11. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 12 Gold can lose more shine. After steady rallying for 12 straight years, gold has come down nearly 38% from its all-time high of $1923 per ounce in August 2011. Gold prices officially entered the clutches of a bear market in February. With the US budget deficit expected at around $660 billion this fiscal year, the Fed has to reduce the size of its monthly purchases of T-bonds. The “Global Money Trends” newsletter estimates that Fed chief, Ben Bernanke would move to taper quantitative easing (QE) to $65 billion per month in September and to $45bn at the next meeting in December. At the request of the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), the Fed may downsize QE3 to $45 billion, even if it means that the US economy is edging into a mild recession. As for gold prices, the key question is what would be the bottom price in a scenario of complete tapering of QE3 to zero by mid-2014? If this is true, the bears appear to have gained a foothold and the gold seems to have found its bear market bottom at $1000-1100 per ounce, where it could start to build a sustainable base of support and begin a recovery rally in the months ahead. When gold started correcting, no one had more to lose than the miners in South Africa, where break-even costs are the highest in the world. The price of yellow metal below $1400 per ounce is a red signal for the South African gold miners. Sibanye, South Africa’s second-largest gold miner by output, has total costs including production and other relating cost at $1334 per ounce. AngloGold, the country’s largest gold miner, was the only South African bullion producer whose costs are $1204 per ounce. Coming to MCX gold price, it had not been correctly compared with comex gold prices. MCX gold has taken support at ` 2500 per gram and bounced back to `2800 per gram. MCX gold price increased and did not correct, for which there are multiple reasons like INR depreciation and import duty increases. Technical View:- MCX gold chart shows a major resistance at `29000. After touching a low of `24830, MCX gold rallied sharply to a re- sistance at `29000. At Feb 2013, after a long period, MCX gold breached its 200 days simple moving average (SMA) and was at `30640. On 31 July 2013, gold faced resistance at `29000 and SMA (200) at `28634 and failed to sustain at that level. On the daily charts, MCX gold has formed bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern, which is shown in the image in the chart above. Trading view: - Sell Gold on rise `28500-600 Target `27200-25800 SL `29400(Closing Basis ) COMMODITY REPORT MONTHLY
  12. 12. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 13 CURRENCY REPORT Dollar Index: The US dollar pushed higher against other major currencies, boosted by release of strong US economic reports. The dollar rose against major currencies on 1 August 2013 after factory and jobs data in the US surpassed expectations. The numbers strengthened the greenback by keeping expectations alive that the Federal Reserve remains on track for winding down stimulus measures such as its USD85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, which weakens the green- back to speed up recovery. Better-than-expected data from the labor market also fueled ongoing sentiments that special monetary stimulus programs will begin to wind down possibly this year and end in 2014. Technical View: Dollar Index rose from its low of 80.7, making high of 84.72. The rise in Dollar index was snapped by a fall to the level of 81.30. Technically, the Dollar Index formed Harmonic X-AB, giving 0.786% retracement indicating trend reversal, supported by formation of morning star candlestick pattern. RSI and Stochastic signal a reversal from current level, with a target of 84-86. Coming to USD-INR: The rupee has been among the worst hit this year among emerging market currencies due to concerns on current ac- count deficit that hit a record high of 4.8% of gross domestic product in the previous fiscal year. Even after several steps taken to control volatility in the rupee, it seems to be helpless against the strength in US Dollar and continuous dollar buying pressure by oil importers. This week, the rupee was the worst performing regional unit with a 2.8% fall against the dollar. If it maintains the fall, that would be the largest weekly loss since the week ended June 21. MONTHLY
  13. 13. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 14 Technical View: USD-INR gave a sharp rally from the 57.50 level, marking on all-time high of 61.21 after which the rupee consolidated between 59 and 60.80. However, with positive bias in US Dollar, the rupee breached the resistance level, forming morn- ing star candlestick pattern. This signals a bullish trend with target of 62-63. ADX also shows positive strength.
  14. 14. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 15 Types Of Fund Equity Funds Most Equity funds are created with the objective of generating long-term growth and capital appreciation. The investing horizon for equity products is also longer, given that equity as an asset class may be volatile in the short term. Equity funds differ predominately in the manner in which they select the market segments and stocks that would form the port- folio. Diversified equity funds tend to invest across a broad range of equity shares, with the objective of beating a broad equity market index. Diversified equity funds are not biased in terms of the sectors they choose, the size of the stock they select, or the invest- ment style they may pursue. Although the benchmark index for several diversified equity funds is a narrow index such as the BSE Sensex or the Nifty, they tend to hold non-index as well as midcap and small cap stocks. Investors, who like to hold a fund that invests in equity shares without any specific bias, tend to choose diversified equity funds. Midcap, Small Cap, and Micro Cap Equity Funds feature a bias determined by the size of the companies in which they invest. Large companies tend to be well established in their businesses with stable growth and earnings. The smaller com- panies tend to exhibit higher growth on earnings depending on the business opportunity, ability to grow, management style, and profit margins. However, smaller companies tend to also feature a higher risk of inability to withstand down- turns, inabilty to scale up risk of business failures, and lower liquidity in the stock market. Fund managers have to spend more time and energy in selecting and monitoring smaller companies. These funds offer a higher-risk and higher-return variation to large cap funds. Thematic Equity funds tend to choose their stocks based on a particular theme, which the fund managers believe will do well during a given period of time, based on their understandings of macro trends and developments. Infrastructure funds, commodity-stocks based funds focusing on companies in the public sector, funds investing in multi- national companies, funds focusing on rural sector, funds focusing on business driven by consumption patterns, and service sector funds are all examples of thematic equity funds. These funds run a higher concentration risk compared with a diversified equity fund, but may also offer a higher return if the themes they focus on tend to do better than the overall market. Style-based equity funds tend to adopt a particular approach to select their stocks, with the view that such selection strategies may outperform the benchmarks. Value funds identify underspriced stocks and tend to focus on stocks and sectors that are not in focus but have the po- tential to do well in the long run. Aggressive growth funds tend to focus on stocks, which show the potential for a higher earnings growth compared with their peers. Special situation and turnaround funds look for companies that have had a bad run, but may bounce back in time. Flexicap or varicap funds tend to switch between large and midcap funds based on the fund mangers’ view of which style might outperform the benchmarks. Index funds are passively managed funds where the fund manager does not take a call on stocks or the weights of the stocks in the portfolio, but simply replicates a chosen index. Replicating an index means holding all the same stocks in exactly the same weightage as in the index. Index funds could track the broader indices such as Nifty and Sensex as in the index. Index funds could track the sector-specific indices such as BSE IT (Technology) or Banks (Banking). Investors who do not like to take a risk on the fund manager, but accept a return that is associated with an index, choose index funds. Index funds are also popular since they cost less. The expense ratio of an index fund is about 0.75% while a normal equity fund could be as expensive as 2.5%. Sector Funds are equity funds that focus on a particular sector. They feature concentrated risks and are suitabable for investors willing to take a view on the performance of the given factor. Sector funds are available for sectors such as industry sectors, information technology, banking, pharma, and FMCG. If the sector is expected to do well, given a confluence of favourable policy and macro environment, funds tend to launch such sectors funds. Sector funds have a high level of concentration risks. MONTHLY MUTUAL FUND REPORT
  15. 15. ACMIIL MARKET PULSE- August 2013 16 Disclaimer: This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report Disclosure of Interest MARKET PULSE - August 2013 1. Analyst ownership of the stock NO 2. Broking Relationship with the company covered NO 3. Investment Banking relationship with the company covered NO 4. Discretionary Portfolio Management Services NO This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be con- sidered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein. SEBI Regn No: BSE INB 010607233 (Cash); INF 010607233 (F&O), NSE INB 230607239 (Cash); INF 230607239 (F&O) Retail Research Desk: 91 22 2858 3739 retailresearch@acm.co.in Analyst Panel Follow us on: Equity & Derivative K Subramanyam 022 2858 3739 Sumeet Jain, CMT 022 2858 3740 Akhil Rathi 022 2858 3733 Shrenik Gujrathi 022 2858 3209 Carol Shah 022 2858 3207 Umesh Ghadi 022 2858 3208 Commodities Kiran Jani 22 2858 4600 Currency Kamaljeet Kaur Saini 022 2858 3766 Mutual Fund Y. V. Suryakiran 022 2858 3085 Debt Market Vrushti Shah 022 2858 5959 Sachin Kathar 022 2858 5959

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