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Ascent look out telecom media & technology 2014


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A 2014 report by ATOS on #Telecom #Media and #Technology

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Ascent look out telecom media & technology 2014

  1. 1. look out Trends 2014+ Telecoms, media & technology
  2. 2. At Atos we strive to create the firm of the future. We believe that bringing together people, technology and business is the way forward. Every day we power sustainable progress for our clients and partners, the wider community and ourselves. It is our unique approach as Business Technologists that makes this possible.
  3. 3. Contents Editorial `` Welcome to Ascent Look Out..........................................................................................................................................................5 `` Foreword....................................................................................................................................................................................................................7 Introduction `` View from the Atos Telecoms, Media & Technology Global Market Leader...........................11 `` Helping you to stay one step ahead......................................................................................................................................12 `` Why do innovation enthusiasts endorse Ascent Look Out?.....................................................................13 Focus On `` Business Mobility.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Innovation Radars `` 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Socio-Cultural...............................................................................................................28 `` 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Economic......................................................................................................................... 30 `` 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Political.................................................................................................................................34 `` 2014+ CxO Agenda Radar.................................................................................................................................................................36 `` 2014+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar................................................................................................40 Telecoms, Media & Technology Market View `` Telecoms Business Imperatives.................................................................................................................................................48 `` Telecoms Business Trends.................................................................................................................................................................51 `` Telecoms Business Impact of Emerging Technologies and Solutions........................................56 `` Media Business Imperatives............................................................................................................................................................ 61 `` Media Business Trends.........................................................................................................................................................................63 `` Media Business Impact of Emerging Technologies and Solutions................................................. 66 Innovation Radars in Detail `` 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Socio-Cultural...................................................................................... 72 `` 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Economic................................................................................................80 `` 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Political.......................................................................................................90 `` 2014+ CxO Agenda in Detail....................................................................................................................................................... 100 `` 2014+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar in Detail..................................................................... 1114 Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................................................138 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 3
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  5. 5. Welcome to Ascent Look Out ©Marc BERTRAND/CHALLENGES-REA Welcome to Ascent Look Out. I am very proud to share this fifth edition with you and hope you find our broad analysis of emerging trends and technologies an interesting and stimulating read. We created Ascent Look Out with one clear goal in mind: to arouse the novel ideas that will drive innovation for you, our clients and our partners, in 2014 and beyond. After all, there has never been a better time to see how emerging global business and technological trends can power progress. As Business Technologists we want to ignite your imagination, sparked by the vision we deliver through our commitment to innovation. Innovation is part of our DNA — you will find it everywhere. We are very clear about what it truly means and how we can help our clients ensure it becomes part of their own company DNA too. Our Ascent initiatives, which include Ascent Look Out, are designed to share innovation and thought leadership with our partners and clients. Ascent Look Out provides a bird’s eye view of the trends that will shape our world in 2014 and beyond, delivered by our market and technology experts across the globe. Its breadth of vision spans over 800 trends across 20 market sectors. We can guarantee that within Ascent Look Out you will discover something new that will open the door to new opportunities. We hope you enjoy reading Ascent Look Out; we have enjoyed putting it together. As a thought provoking read, we are sure it will bring you a great deal of value. Thierry Breton Atos, Chairman and CEO Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 5
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  7. 7. Foreword Welcome to the fifth edition of Ascent Look Out, our key yearly publication covering significant trends in business and technology innovation. The economic crisis that started in 2007 continued to develop its effects in many countries during 2013, reduction of public deficits and debts is still at the top of political agendas, while forgotten tensions among geopolitical blocks are reemerging. But it’s not all doom and gloom: new technology is enabling better informed decision-making while increasing efficiency, supported by the digital natives who have come of age and are using technology to exploit the vast, and growing, volumes of data. In our earlier editions of Ascent Look Out we examined Green IT, Open Innovation, Cloud Computing and the birth of Social Organization in depth. In this 2014 edition of Ascent Look Out, our ‘Focus On’ section is devoted to Business Mobility where we are already seeing early adopters gain competitive advantage from the many potential opportunities it offers. From a business and technology stand-point, the human being is about to become truly ubiquitous, a truly god-like power that corporate organizations must now learn how to channel and leverage. This decisive change has the potential—as you are about to read—to significantly redefine our experiences as customers, as citizens and as employees. Other highlights include: our overview of the latest Sociocultural, Economic and Political trends and opportunities, along with those already on the CxO agenda; in-depth expert analysis for each; and a detailed reference guide tours market sectors detailing what we can expect to see from them in the months—and years—ahead. I sincerely hope you enjoy this issue and we look forward to hearing your views. Enjoy your read. Gilles Grapinet Atos, Senior Executive Vice President, Global Functions Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 7
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  9. 9. Introduction Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 9
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  11. 11. Introduction View from the Atos Telecoms, Media & Technology Global Market Leader There’s never been a better time to see how technology’s possibilities can power progress for your business, your clients, and the wider society. At Atos, as Business Technologists, we offer you this vision through this publication. In previous issues of Ascent Look Out we have reviewed at how organizations, with vastly reduced budgets, needed to transform to ensure a sustainable future business whilst at the same time, improving current levels of services. But as always, we continue to look ahead and see what kind of changes we will see in today’s still volatile, ever more complex, world. Consumers today are well-informed and better connected than ever before. They will have become used to tablets and smartphones. After an initial phase of experimenting, consumers are expanding their usages in multimedia, payment, search, Smart Mobility applications. The voice market is shrinking, with the broadband data market exploding. Telecoms companies will suffer as their cash cow disappears. To combat this, they need to strengthen their intermediary role in the digital value chain and ensure they are active participants in new business models. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology Media companies must also strengthen their role in the digital value chain. They are no longer the only gateway to digital content with consumers looking for branded content through search engines and their social networks. The challenges of monetizing communication and content services vary across emerging, evolving, and saturated markets. Emerging markets are characterized by high demand and promising growth potential, but small customer wallets. On the opposite side, saturated markets in developed geographies feature extreme competition, high customer expectations, and consumer-friendly regulation. Finally, with the growth of Cloud services, mobile computing, and social media, traditional security models will not suffice: a focus on information security is imperative. Ascent Look Out combines the knowledge and insight from subject matter experts across all corners of Atos. Our Business Technologists across the world are ready to share our vision to help you to take advantage of the evolution of technologies and new opportunities we are seeing in the telecoms and media markets. Bruno Fabre Executive Vice President Telco, Media & Utilities Atos Telecoms and media companies need to explore innovative revenue streams whilst continuing to develop existing schemes. But it’s a fast moving environment, and new competitors will shake up the market and force traditional companies to react. Being able to quickly understand customer desires, adapt current business models and swiftly roll-out new services will be critical to ensure survival. Business Intelligence, driven by the vast amounts of information that Big Data can provide, is of great value here. 11
  12. 12. Introduction Helping you to stay one step ahead Ascent: thought leadership program from Atos Our Ascent initiatives ensure we deliver the best and most advanced solutions to our clients, helping them stay ahead of the game. Designed for sharing thought leadership with our partners and clients, these initiatives highlight the importance we place on research, development and innovation: `` Ascent Look Out provides a bird’s eye view of the trends that will shape our world in 2013 and beyond. Market focused, but delivered by both our market and technology experts across the globe, its breadth of vision—over 800 trends across 20 market sectors—allows you to identify trends that are likely to impact your business in the coming years. Each time you turn to Ascent Look Out you will discover something new that will open the door to great opportunities for you. `` Ascent Journey 2016 provides an in-depth analysis of the key technological trends that will have a major impact on almost every organization across the globe. It shares the predictions and vision of our Scientific Community, detailing how these technologies will shape our and your business through to 2016. `` Ascent White Papers provide expert insights, practical tips and a thorough understanding of how organizations can use technology to drive business growth and achieve successful transformation. Delivered by our Scientific Community, 12 they also identify the technologies which we believe will be key tomorrow, answering questions on how to leverage them for current and future business needs. `` Ascent Magazines provide inspirational, forward-looking views on selected business technology themes. The latest edition, entitled “A vision of sports and technology”, explores one specific area in which Atos is proud to have a unique track record: sport. It is now more than two decades since we began working with the Olympic and Paralympic Games. In the years since our first Games, information technology has moved from being a support function to an integral part of the successful delivery of any event. Ascent in Action A series of Ascent events have been organized across several countries to allow our top clients to meet thought leaders and Atos experts. Through discovering more about today’s key technology and business trends—finding out what they are, what the fuss is all about, what the benefits are, what is really going to happen and what they need to look out for—they will be able to approach the future with confidence. `` Scan the technology and business landscape, stimulating and provoking thinking on how you could best leverage emerging technologies and trends. Adding this new dimension to your insight will help you develop innovation opportunities from unexpected angles. `` Gain insight into the future of your industry and the potential impact on your organization. See, share and discover the trends in not only your own market, but also adjoining markets, and learn about the possible scenarios for your future. Only through understanding the possibilities can you prepare for every eventuality. Our experts are always ready to work with you to help drive new opportunities, overcome upcoming challenges or simply to help raise awareness. Whether you are looking to reduce costs and improve efficiency, make full use of social media or understand the opportunities and pitfalls of Business Mobility, do not hesitate to get in touch. Built on Ascent Journey 2016 and Ascent Look Out, the more operational and intimate Atos Innovation Workshops help key players within your organization drive innovation in your business. Attending an Atos Innovation Workshop will allow you to: Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  13. 13. Why do innovation enthusiasts endorse Ascent Look Out? “Organizations face a bewildering number of trends and technologies. It is almost impossible to keep an overview and to set priorities among them. If there is one publication that helps you do just that, it is Atos’ Ascent Look Out. Atos’ approach and expert knowledge helps you to navigate the dynamics of the business environment in an insightful way, without denying the complexity of today’s economy. I have worked with Ascent Look Out before and I always found the results illuminating.” Ard-Pieter de Man Professor of Knowledge Networks and Innovation, VU University Amsterdam; Dean at Sioo, Centre for Organization Studies and Change Management The Netherlands “If innovation and sustainability are among your top business priorities, Ascent Look Out is the right tool for you. Every chapter provides you with a complete description of the trends that will shape the future, covering all relevant dimensions. Deusto Business School is proud to use the Atos Ascent Look Out information during our executive masters, especially within our Master in Business Innovation (MBI) where our executive students are learning and experimenting with how to use insights and long-term foresight to assess potential futures. This is crucial for preparing us and our organizations for the challenges and opportunities ahead.” Dr Manuel Escudero Managing Director of Deusto Business School Spain “We live in an ever-changing world: the economy, politics, society, young people, customers, brands—and more—are all shifting. At the same time new technologies and trends are popping up, seemingly from nowhere, and all at a speed never encountered before. Ascent Look Out from Atos is an astute thought leadership tool. Not only will it help you understand this process of change, it will draw your attention to the significant social, political and economic trends out on all our horizons. By acting as a compass, it will help you navigate the many possible scenarios, showing you how to use the new technologies already used across some industries today.” Eduardo Sicilia Director Executive MBA EOI Business School Spain Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 13
  14. 14. “Today, a growth of new technologies together with an increase in internet services is exposing companies and banks to more challenging issues than ever before: `` How do you match customer expectations in terms of timeto-market, access, simplicity, availability, speed, accuracy and of course security? `` How do you take part and maintain a good position in the new global ecosystem as it transforms? `` What sustainable and profitable approach should you take? Ascent Look Out is one of simplest and most efficient digests. Taking all pieces of the puzzle into account, it has helped us find our way by giving a clear understanding of the emerging trends.” Olivier Vandenbilcke Head of Benchmark and Innovation BNP Paribas France “The ever increasing pace of change in the current global context requires us to embrace increasing levels of complexity, increasing levels of uncertainty, and increasing difficulties of predicting the future by extrapolating from the past. In such times insight based on foresight is ever more important. We need individuals and organizations that help us make sense of the things to come, and provide us with pointers that will help us navigate our future. Atos’ series ‘Ascent Look Out’ is full of such important pointers.” “There is quite a bit of material published nowadays about trends and where particular industries are supposedly heading. Ascent Look Out briefing pack is among the best. There is a rigor behind thinking, which I think is missing in many other publications, and the way that the material is laid out is also engaging.” Dr Bettina von Stamm Director & Catalyst Innovation Leadership Forum “The Ascent Look Out trends report summarizes technology and market developments well and is helpful for illustrating the drivers of innovation and emerging technologies in the global markets to students. In particular, the innovation and technology radars effectively visualize possible future trends and offer some food for thoughts for students and researchers.” Richard Watson CEO and Founder of the What’s Next Trends Report United Kingdom Marko Seppänen, Associate Professor Director of Center for Innovation and Technology Research Tampere University of Technology Finland 14 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  15. 15. “In the new era of innovation, which I call “Open Innovation 2.0”, we see ad-hoc interactions and frictionless processes, creating innovation that cannot be planned—only the probability of breakthroughs increased. This era we are driving rapidly towards is characterized by, for example, stronger user-driver innovation in quadruple helix innovation where public sector, industry, research and the users together shape the direction and outcome. As we move towards Open Data, platforms and processes as the oil for new innovation and the experimentation and rapid prototyping in real world settings are essential to achieving fast results (be they success or failure), and thus creating scalable and multipliable results sooner. Simultaneous technology and societal innovation will stretch the boundaries and create the new winners. “Having been deeply involved in innovation management for several years now, both in operative business as well as in education, I can tell that Ascent Look Out is a great example of how to deal with the very important front-loading of your innovation pipeline. It covers all important angles: from social, economic and political macro trends to a detailed description and assessment of technological trends. The adaptation to vertical industries is very helpful; it considers the relevance of the trends to specific sectors. This input is a very valuable starting point for your innovation roadmap: take it, digest it and draw the right conclusions for your own business.” “A valuable solution to successfully address the challenges of an everchanging scene. Ascent Look Out is the result of a new way of working, combining the knowledge and insight from Atos’ communities to yield a truly collaborative global initiative. The result is an engaging deliverable with brilliant contents and clear pictorial views. It presents trends that will drive innovation and emerging technologies that will transform life, business and the global markets.” Roberto Mariscal Head of Innovation Projects Promotion at Iberdrola Spain Harald Müller Director Strategic Projects Siemens AG, Smart Grid Division Germany Exploring insights, combining them and daring to create new,  I  am delighted to see this very perspective within the Ascent Look Out series of publications.” Bror Salmelin Advisor, Innovation Systems, DG Communications Networks, Media and Technology European Commission Belgium Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 15
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  17. 17. Focus On Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 17
  18. 18. Focus On Business Mobility Business Mobility is a game changer, but requires evolution in organization and IT systems What is it? Mobility is not simply another chapter in the smaller, faster, cheaper device story—and it is definitely not about tiny websites or screenscraped PC applications. Instead, mobility is the catalyst for a much broader shift in systems of engagement. Business Mobility is about empowerment—it is about empowering consumers, employees, partners, patients, students and citizens in the context of where they are and what they are doing. To achieve this we must analyze the context of these hundreds of thousands of individuals in real time and marry this information with cross-channel digital intelligence. Only then can we proactively deliver the right service, at the right time, at the right place, to the right person on the right channel. Why the fuss? Employees and consumers now have a direct connection to your services in their pocket. At the end of 2012, the world was counting 6.2 billion active mobile subscriptions and 1.1 billion smartphones had been sold, rising to 10 billion by 2016 (source IDC)—that’s approximately 1.4 devices per capita. 18 With such widespread adoption of mobile devices, organizations cannot afford to ignore mobile as a platform and the opportunities that Business Mobility brings. So, what opportunities does Business Mobility bring? Organizations have four main goals when it comes to Business Mobility: `` Enabling employees to be productive and make key decisions anywhere and on any device `` Interacting with customers in their moments of decision `` Connecting all their assets and dynamically reporting on status and usage `` Enhancing collaboration with partners in the context of their daily workflow They typically split their mobility approach in two streams—one for corporate users (Enterprise Mobility) and another for consumers (Mobility for Consumers or Engagement Mobility)—as the ambitions, challenges and platform are different in each. With Enterprise Mobility, the primary goal is to increase the productivity of employees through providing them with the right mobile services at the time they need them. Examples include expenses management, contextual CRM and field force management. Of course, collaboration with partners is important too, as is asset management— though the importance of connecting assets varies across industries, with sectors such as manufacturing and transportation better able to manage and maintain their assets. With Mobility for Consumers, organizations see Business Mobility as a game changer that has the potential to transform business models and product strategies. Delivering the right services, to the right person in the right way when this person wants really to engage will transform interactions with consumers, citizens, students and patients, providing an opportunity for reinventing core processes and generating new revenue. Examples include: `` Automotive/oil and gas—Moving from a product to a consumer-centric approach, building loyalty with the consumer and reselling customized services directly to the driver in the car through the head unit or his smartphone/tablet `` Utilities—Enabling more dynamic pricing by feeding into tariffs and responding to economic demand through accessing contextual consumption data every fifteen minutes via the automated smart metering infrastructure `` Healthcare—Interacting with patients outside of the hospital to provide integrated preventive care at home, based on the patient’s immediate context `` Banking and insurance—Services based on location could include provision of information (such as local currency rates for customers abroad) or enticing a customer to come in and review their insurance options when they are in the vicinity `` Cities—Boosting mobile as the new primary channel for communication between Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  19. 19. Customers Interaction Business MOBILITY Partners Collaboration END-TO-END SOLUTIONING Employees Productivity KEY VISION Physical context plus digital intelligence, not just online access Proactive service, not just self-service Business processes designed for engagement, not just for services originally designed for PCs JOIN MARKETING AND GO TO MARKET KEY ORGANISATIONAL & PROCESS ELEMENTS NEUTRAL BUSINESS PARNTER 6 BILLION MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS Productivity & Loyalty New Business Models PAYOFF: PROFITABLE GROWTH Lowering everybody’s costs NEXT GEN IT BLOCKS Smart Products Wired Products Figure 1. The Business Mobility Ecosystem. citizen and local government, driving citizen benefits around some of these services: live traffic management, mobile parking services, public transport information and more `` Retail—Using mobility as a bridge between the retailer’s store and the e-commerce web site to provide a seamless and new innovative shopping experience to the consumer Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology `` Telecoms—We will see a variety of new context-enriched business mobility services emerge in the market that can be delivered by over-the-top (OTT) providers or by telecoms operators themselves `` Workforce—Boosting efficiency by connecting infrastructure and workforce for a true mobile experience; collaborating, sharing and disseminating data and information to any device, enabling predictive maintenance `` Office/home—Creating (mobile) automation services to enable ambient intelligence and energy-efficiency in homes and offices 19
  20. 20. What are the barriers to adoption? These goals are commonly shared by organization. However, very few succeed in transforming these into reality. The reasons? Mobility invariably requires evolution across other areas of the business—strategy, organizational structures, business processes, partner eco-systems and IT systems. From a technical perspective, successful mobile services also draw on social, cloud and Big Data innovation, delivering apps and smart products directly within a customer’s own context. But today, most client IT systems are not ready to handle the multitude of IT challenges that Business Mobility presents: the multichannel paradigm; the network, technical and infrastructure agility required; and also all the middleware, applications and security models that need to be constructed for contextual mobile services. Furthermore, ideological conflicts amongst design and development teams must be avoided. Drawing on other technology innovations Big Data Big Data has become the commonly used term for the explosion in volume and variety of electronic information that organizations are exposed to, as their business processes evolve to address the needs of our increasingly connected world. There are a number of new technological evolutions that are driving the emergence of Big Data, including new types of database, new ways of processing data, new visualization technologies, new analytical techniques—and not to mention the vast amounts of data that Business Mobility itself will generate. 20 Organizations that are able to harness and make sense of these vast quantities of real time contextual data from disparate sources (sensors, social networks and corporate data, for example) and about millions of individuals will gain valuable insights. This will provide them with opportunities for pushing the right targeted mobile services, at the right moment, to the right person, in response to changing environments. Furthermore, Big Data will enable organizations to work with partners— traditional and new—to monetize this contextual information by extracting the consumer’s path, optimizing existing services and reselling this information. Data is key to mobility, and Big Data will enable organizations to handle it appropriately. Cloud Computing Time-to-market is a key factor in the race for mobile solutions. But with mobile devices evolving at an almost alarming rate, organizations risk delays by having to focus on complex and ever-changing cross-platform considerations. Organizations want to be able to simply focus on the underlying business logic. As such, a hosted platform delivered in the Cloud provides the idea solution. By combining a hybrid or a private cloud with a Mobile expertise center, organizations can quickly take advantage of the pre-configured, ready-to-go environment. With expert knowledge and best practice already applied, they can focus on bespoke business logic from day one. Organizations will be able to take advantage of a full stack of enterprise mobility solutions from controlling the applications and mobile device deployment to easing the creation of mobile applications. Coupled with flexible and transparent pricing, cloud’s pay-per-use model—with no upfront development costs—lowers the entry barrier into mobility solutions, and provides a move from CAPEX to OPEX and a faster return on investment. Security and privacy As mobility and Cloud Computing break down the concept of defined physical location, a new approach to dealing with IT security is required. The increased portability of data brings the increased risk of unintended exposure, misuse and loss or alienation. Because of the potentially transient nature of the devices, applications and users that access any given data, security mechanisms have to be aligned to the data itself. Advances in identity management (particularly biometrics) and cryptography will enable the security of data in each component of the system. Security in such dynamic environments must be built on the assumption that anyone or any device may get access to the data, but that only authorized users should be able to use it. The explosion of user related data (both personally created and contextually generated) and how it is used is increasing security and privacy challenges—especially the tension between data exploitation, usage rights and privacy. There is a fine balance to maintain. Individuals, especially on the consumer side, will need to understand that a certain amount of personal data will need to be provided in exchange for these new valuable personalized services. On the other side of the coin, service providers need to ensure that the personal data delivered into their care is treated with great care. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  21. 21. A closer look at Enterprise Mobility Mobility is at the core of many discussions within the enterprise and there are some really clear expectations: `` CEOs want to smoothly extend the company strategy to customers outside of the point of sale and increase the productivity of employees by providing direct access to the information system from anywhere. To stay competitive and efficient, they want to ensure they have all the tools needed to swiftly launch new mobile services. CONTROL `` Business departments want to be able to create new innovative and connected mobile services quickly by focusing only on business ideas and not technical considerations. `` IT department wants to provide a The secured and controlled platform, enabling business departments to swiftly implement and deploy new mobile services that are interconnected with the information systems. `` Finally, the purchasing department wants to be able to purchase a top-class solution from a single provider, paying only for what is being used within a flexible model. CONNECT Manage and control the deployment of mobile devices within your organization. Provide your mobile devices park with a direct connection to your entire existing information system (software apps, databases, web services, J2EE connectors, …) There is a platform emerging that will remove today’s barriers and reach today’s expectations: the Mobile Enterprise Application Platform. These platforms support all enterprise mobility requirements, providing a comprehensive, long-term approach to deploying mobility by controlling the deployment of mobile devices, enabling simple, yet secure, integration of information systems, and easing the creation and diffusion of mobile applications. CREATE CONSUME Create and test mobile services by only focusing on the underlying business logic without taking care about any cross-platform considerations. Control, automate and monitor the deployment of mobile applications within the enterprise. Provision Decommission Production Connectors SDK Private AppStore Figure 2. The Mobile Enterprise Application Platform. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 21
  22. 22. Mobility for consumers: the retail industry as an example Threatened by booming e-commerce, physical stores have to change dramatically. They have one main objective: to enhance the shopping experience of the consumer based on four main axes: `` Improving the consumer/seller interaction `` Leveraging the e-commerce offering inside the store `` Empowering consumers `` Optimizing the checkout Business Mobility is a true opportunity for retailers. Harmonizing the mobile, the physical store and the website brings a simple solution across these four axes. By bringing e-commerce services in-store and strengthening store advantages, retailers can enrich consumer experience before, during and after store visits. Oops... just a few minutes for my train departure and I need a new pair of earphones! I can make it! Ok, let me check-in to connect with the shop Wifi. I’m sure it will take only a few minutes if I’m able to use my app. Looking for earphones... just at the opposite side from where I’m... as usual... let’s go! So easy! Just tapping the label I can get extended information! Perfect, it’s the one I want. Sending it to my basket and ready to checkout. Tap in my loyalty password to pay... as easy as iTunes! Payment done! A ticket is also generated for me. And I just need to show it at the POS. Everything went smoothly and fast. Maybe less than a minute. I think I’ve still got some time for a coffee now. Figure 3. Enhancing the Consumer’s Shopping Experience. 22 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  23. 23. Furthermore, Business Mobility enables a new hybrid digital distribution, designed for connected (always-on) consumers. This brand new end-to-end shopping experience—the Digital Store—natively includes the physical Consumers store without interrupting the digital experience of the consumer. Redesigned, the traditional store is now a vital asset for the retailer, bringing the elements that e-commerce services struggle to provide: B2C Free new innovative services will make consumers more attracted by the physical store and spend more and better a touch experience, immediacy of product availability, advice and services. The Digital Store is an amplifier of the consumer digital experience. Suppliers Traditional & New Ones Service Provider B2B Monetize Delegate Qualified Audience – 360 vision Lead Generation / Loyalty € Enhance the shopping experience VALUE Strengthen Sellers Better consumer control Figure 4. The Digital Store Ecosystem. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 23
  24. 24. A day in the life of Imagine the following scenario based on how Business Mobility can enhance the consumer experience: Zoe is travelling with Marie on a well-deserved vacation. Her friend has an amazing tiny travel speaker that provides a very high music quality when plugged directly into her Samsung smartphone! It was a gift so her friend doesn’t really know where to buy it or its price. Zoe immediately launches her favorite retailer application, which presents a product description thanks to automatic image recognition. It is consistent with Zoe’s budget and available in pink—her favorite color. Zoe immediately saves it in her wish list and ‘likes’” it to her Facebook profile. Two friends on her network have also liked this product and are very satisfied with it! The week after, back from vacation, Zoe is in the airport, travelling with Marc to a business meeting abroad. She has to meet him at the boarding gate in 20 minutes. The retailer application notifies her that the pink tiny travel speaker is available in a store in the airport. A ‘For you Zoe only’ one-hour promotional coupon shows up, giving her a 20 percent discount. 24 However, Zoe is in a rush; boarding is in 20 minutes. The application told her that the product checkout time is currently estimated to be 10 minutes at most. She rushes over the shop (thanks to the map provided by the application), finds the tiny travel speaker, adds it to her shopping basket, checks it out and redeems the promotional voucher. At the last moment, Zoe doubts whether the speaker is compatible with her ‘old’ iPhone 3GS. She scans the product and scans the description; it says that the iPhone is compatible, but not specifically the 3GS. The mobile app indicates that two sellers are available. She pushes the HELP button and the apps told her that Sophie is on her way to help. Zoe swipes her mobile to pay (without going to the cash mark) and heads off. Walking to the boarding gate, Zoe gets a notification that she has now reached the next level of loyalty points and can get 20 percent discount off the next David Guetta show, which is in her wish list but a bit too expensive. Immediately, with just a four-digit code, she buys the tickets on her phone and opts to get the tickets sent directly sent to her phone. 7.5 minutes later, Zoe arrives at the plane in time for her flight. Sophie appears quickly and is super-happy, empathic and helpful, so Zoé ‘likes’ Sophie in the application. Sophie has already synced Zoe’s basket on her seller mobile device and Zoe had already joined the loyalty program and registered her loyalty card in mobile app. This allowed Sophie to access Zoe’s customer profile and purchase history when she synced Zoe’s shopping basket, allowing her to personalize her speech. Using NFC tap between the two mobile devices, Sophie shares additional product information with Zoe. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
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  27. 27. Innovation Radars Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 27
  28. 28. Innovation Radars 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Socio-Cultural The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future — keep watching), through maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore — already driving new business needs). Changing Attitudes Towards Work(place) Digitally Connected Society Urbanization Changing Family Unit Intensive Lifestyles Eco-Awareness Community Building Aging Population Individualization Inherent Reliance on Technology Information Owned by Many Multi-Ethnic Society Emerging issues Maturing issues Burning issues © Atos 2013. All rights reserved. The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail 28 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  29. 29. Aging population Digitally-connected society Inherent reliance on technology The aging population constitutes a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards a higher average age. Population aging arises from two (possibly related) demographic effects: increasing longevity and declining fertility. A digitally connected society is an electronic grouping of individuals, enabled by the Web, characterized by common interests. It may have a distinctive culture and institutions. Reliance on technology means that our personal world, and our society, cannot function without the use of technological devices. This includes cell phones, debit and credit cards, computers, the Internet and cars. Changing attitude towards work(place) A phrase that brings the idea of work-life balance into focus is ‘Work to live, don’t live to work’. It is also related to the physical location where work would need to be performed (home, office, someplace else) and the way people are (or want to be) managed. Changing family unit Over the past couple of decades, particularly in the West, the traditional family unit has radically changed and new models have arisen. There has been a decrease in the number of children living in families that are headed by a couple and an increase in those living in families with a lone parent. Community building Community building is directed towards the creation or enhancement of community between individuals within a regional area (such as a neighborhood) or with a common interest (that may or may not be limited to geographical boundaries). Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology Eco-awareness The green movement (or eco-movement) is a political and societal movement that advocates goals, including environmentalism, sustainability, non-violence and social justice concerns. Individualization Individualization is a term used to describe a process towards a moral, political or social outlook that stresses human independence and the importance of individual self-reliance and liberty. Information owned by many With the first generation of the Internet, information was provided and owned by the few for the consumption of the many. The second generation Internet sees the many now willing and able to contribute to the wealth of knowledge and information appearing within many diverse sources. It is not easy to either seek out all the information or influence the impression that it is making. Intensive lifestyles The idea of intensive lifestyles relates to work and the work-life balance of a person and his or her control over the conditions in the workplace. It mutually benefits the individual, business and society when a person’s personal life is balanced with his or her own job. Multi-ethnic society Multi-ethnic societies, in contrast to monoethnic societies, integrate different ethnic groups--irrespective of differences in culture, race and history, under a common social identity larger than one ‘nation’ in the conventional sense. Urbanization Urbanization is the physical growth of urban areas as a result of global change. Urbanization is also defined by the United Nations as movement of people from rural to urban areas with population growth equating to urban migration. 29
  30. 30. Innovation Radars 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Economic The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future—keep watching), through maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore — already driving new business needs). Multi-Sided Markets Rise of the Entreployee Venture Philanthropy Shifting Centers of Economic Activity Shift to Knowledge-Intensive Industries Competition for Natural Resources and Alternative Energy Sources Ubiquitous Access to Information Back-Shoring Greening Business Stakeholder Power Peer-to-Peer Trading Industry Consolidaton Knowledge Process Outsourcing Cyber Threats Global Consumer Markets Economic Volatility Global Labor & Talent Market Multi-Currency Monetary System De-Commoditization Burning issues Maturing issues Emerging issues © Atos 2013. All rights reserved. The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail 30 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  31. 31. Back-shoring Economic volatility Industry consolidation Back-shoring is a countertrend for Western companies that have off-shored manufacturing facilities to cheap labor cost countries. High transportation costs have made it more economical to back-shore production activities and automate them, thus eliminating labor and transportation costs. An economic downturn relates to a period of reduced economic activity, also known as a business cycle contraction. In economics, the term ‘recession’ describes the reduction of a country’s GDP for at least two successive quarters of a year. Industry consolidation refers to the mergers or acquisitions of many smaller companies into much larger ones within specific sectors. An acquisition, also known as a takeover, is the buying of one company (the ‘target’) by another. A merger is similar, but with two companies coming together with equal status. Competition for natural resources and alternative energy sources As long-term economic growth accelerates, we are using natural resources and energy sources at increasing rates. This leads to increasing competition over needed resources such as oil, water, energy, grain and raw materials. Cyber threats Computer hacking represents an increasing threat, especially for large organizations. Attacks can come from amateur hackers, terrorist organizations, government agencies and competitors (industrial espionage). De-commoditization Commoditization is a process that transforms the market for a unique, branded product into a market based on undifferentiated price competition. In economic terms, the market changes from one of monopolistic competition to one of perfect competition. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology Global consumer markets It is expected that a billion new consumers will enter the global consumer marketplace as soon as the last economic downturn subsides and revived economic growth in emerging markets pushes consumers beyond the threshold level of USD 3,700 in annual household income. Global labor and talent market Ongoing shifts in labor and talent will be far more profound than migration of jobs to low-wage countries. The shift to knowledgeintensive industries continues to highlight the importance and scarcity of well-trained talent with degrees in science, technology and other technical fields. Knowledge Process Outsourcing Unlike traditional business process outsourcing initiatives, Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO) involves knowledgeintensive business processes that require significant domain expertise, analytic skills, and judgment and decision-making capabilities. Multi-sided markets In the economic theory of two-sided markets, the value flow is made possible by a platform between two different markets. If one side of the market grows, it influences the other side of the market positive, the so called network effect. Greening business Multi-currency monetary system The concept of, and discussion on, the carbon footprint originates from the green movement and has been on the political agenda for some time. It has recently been picked up by economists as well, and not just because of rising energy costs. As investors and multinationals increase their exposure to fast-growing emerging economies, international demand for developing economy currencies will grow, making way for a global monetary system with more than one dominant currency. 31
  32. 32. Peer-to-peer trading Stakeholder power People are increasingly buying and selling directly to and from one another using online trading systems (platforms). These platforms allow individual members to complete financial transactions by using an auction-style process that lets members offer used or new products and services for a specific amount or on a ‘best offer’ basis. Firms are increasingly influenced by the views and concerns of stakeholders, anyone that their business impacts. This includes anyone in the wider ecosystem that is impacted by the company: customers, anyone in the value chain and societies local to their business sites. Rise of the entreployee ‘Entreployee’ is the term used to describe a new type of employee who markets his or her working abilities on his or her own initiative and who, although formally a dependent employee, bears the risks that have traditionally been those of entrepreneurs. Shifting centers of economic activity The world has embarked on a massive realignment of economic activity as a consequence of economic liberalization, technological advances, capital market developments and demographic shifts. Ubiquitous access to information The increasing adoption of 3G smartphones (such as Apple’s iPhone and Android phones) is making access to anytime/anywhere information a reality. Access to information has therefore become almost universal. Venture philanthropy Venture philanthropy (also termed philanthrocapitalism) is a system that bases its approach to fulfilling philanthropic goals on tried and tested concepts and techniques from venture capital and traditional financial investment. Shift to knowledge-intensive industries Products and processes are too easily replicated; automation of simple tasks and transactions is widespread. Organizations will need to differentiate themselves through knowledge relationships with partners and customers. 32 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  33. 33. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 33
  34. 34. Innovation Radars 2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Political The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future—keep watching), through maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore—already driving new business needs). Burning issues Maturing issues Emerging issues Transparency & Accountability Government Activism Hacktivism E-Democracy Lean Government Affordability of Social Security & Services EU Integration Green Politics Service-Oriented Protectionism Government Privacy of Information Emerging Powers E-Politics © Atos 2013. All rights reserved. The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail 34 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  35. 35. Affordability of social security and services As the size of the workforce declines, funding for healthcare and pension assistance will shrink. E-democracy E-democracy covers (online) communication media that gives citizens a limited ability for making leaders/politicians responsible for their actions in the public sphere. It is about the adoption of electronic technology in the existing or an improved democratic process. E-politics E-politics is a form of direct democracy that uses information and communication technologies and strategies for political and governance processes, along with causerelated fundraising, community building, lobbying and organizing. EU integration EU integration is the process of political, economic and, in some cases, social and cultural integration of European states. Integration is needed to truly operate as a single market. Government activism Protectionism Government activism or intervention is any action taken by a government beyond the basic regulation of its economy or society. Intervention or activism can be aimed at a variety of political, societal or economic objectives. Protectionism is a policy of protecting domestic industries and workers against foreign competition by means of tariffs, subsidies, import quotas and other such restrictions or handicaps placed on the imports of foreign competitors Green politics Service-oriented government Green politics or green ideology is the political principle that places a great importance on ecological and environmental goals, and on achieving these goals through broad-based, participatory democracy and consensual decision-making. Public organizations are struggling with fundamental challenges. These are worsened by budget constraints and rising citizen demands, leaving public services in a position where they are expected to do more with less. Hacktivism – alternative protestation It is a form of online protest. A hacktivist uses the same tools and techniques as a hacker, but does so in order to disrupt services and bring attention to a political or social cause. Transparency and accountability Accountability is an important factor in securing good governance and, thus, the legitimacy of public power. Accountability only enables negative feedback after a decision or action, whereas transparency also enables negative feedback before or during a decision or action. Lean government Ideally, government would have fewer rules, less bureaucracy and fewer public servants. A leaner government body must be more effective, this cannot just be about cutbacks. Emerging powers Privacy of information Globalization is driving new dimensions of power; its definition has extended far beyond its military connotations to include economics, resources and technology. In terms of size, speed and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power is without precedent in modern history. There is a general expanding volume of (potentially) sensitive personal information held, not only in government and business databases, but also posted by people themselves (on Facebook for instance). This is driving public concern about privacy protection. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 35
  36. 36. Innovation Radars 2014+ CxO Agenda Radar Mainstream Business Agility through IT Transformation and Liquid IT Early adoption Adolescent Emerging Green IT Analytics Video Open Innovation Sustainablity SoLoMo Smart Mobility Social Big Data Business Corporate Governance and Risk Business / IT Alignment IT/OT Convergence Emerging Markets Growth Cloud Services Asset Management Servitization Consumerization of IT Customer Demands and Intimacy Lean Everywhere Finding and Retaining Talent Traceability and Visibility Collaborative Ideas Management Aging Workforce Now Offshoring Changes Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 © Atos 2013. All rights reserved. The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail 36 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  37. 37. Each trend has been analyzed from three perspectives: potential size of impact on your business; likely time to impact your business and maturity. The radar diagram provides a pictorial view of our findings, allowing you to quickly understand how disruptive each trend is likely to be and the actions you might consider taking. Polar co-ordinates have been used to depict the likely time to impact your business along with the potential size of the impact. Colors are used to represent the maturity of each trend. `` Now-1 year: look today at how solutions address need. `` years: consider potential solutions 2-3 with maybe some pilots. `` years: understand now and 4+ consider the potential implications and how these could be addressed. `` Transformational: likely to require transformational changes within organizations. `` Emerging (Red): mainly expressed by academia and a very small number of specialized markets. `` High: it will have high impact at work on companies (process, products and services) and the everyday lives of users/consumers. `` Adolescent (Amber): expressed more widely by analysts and thoughtleaders. `` Medium: it will impact on people and organizations, enhancing company’s process services or the everyday lives of users and consumers. `` Low: more likely to require minor improvements rather than radical changes. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology `` Early adopter (Green): seen more widely in the markets. Organizations starting to look for solutions. `` Mainstream (White): there is a clear need and many organizations are implementing solutions. 37
  38. 38. Aging workforce Business IT alignment Corporate governance and risk Baby-boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are starting to retire, but for many continuation of work after the official retirement age will be a financial necessity. The majority of IT-enabled business change still fails to deliver what’s needed at the expected time and cost. The use of ‘next practice’ techniques which embrace diversity rather than artificially simplifying it are much more likely to achieve success. Strong governance manages risks but can also inhibit innovation, and the best balance for both national finances and corporate policy is continuously sought. The recent financial crisis represented a failure of corporate governance and risk management. Cloud services Customer demands and intimacy Cloud Computing as a delivered service can be seen as the next generation of utility computing, which has been providing processing and storage on an ‘on demand’ basis for many years. It is now seen as the dominant form of IT service delivery for the future. The Internet gives customers more access to information, more choice and a louder voice. Retaining customers becomes an increasingly complex task requiring intimacy and transparency to ensure their demands are met. Analytics The aim of analytics is to extract knowledge from data by finding the internal relations between those data, applying advanced algorithms. Analytics enables the understanding of patterns, cause and effect and prediction in large data sets containing both structured and unstructured information. Asset management Asset management is increasingly a critical business activity for any asset-owning organization or enterprise; infrastructure, transport, manufacturing and chemicals are classic examples. Big Data Big Data describes how you get competitive advantage from managing the new volumes of data that will become a concern for every knowledge company. We are witnessing an explosive growth of the information that all facets of humanity are creating and processing. Business agility through IT transformation and Liquid IT Being large and agile requires increased integration between the business and IT. The need for increased business agility and streamlined business processes in which IT is no longer the bottleneck to change, has led to the concept of ‘Liquid IT’. 38 Collaborative ideas management Emerging markets growth Collaborative ideas management allows the right people to get in touch to generate the ideas, and the right ideas to reach the right people. It can be key to ensuring that an innovation program is successful. A profound shift in global economic power from West to East is under way with Western economies playing a diminishing role in the global economy over time whilst China, India and other emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia play an ever-increasing one. Consumerization of IT Finding and retaining talent Consumerization of IT, starting with ‘bringyour-own-device’ (BYOD) and progressing to ‘bring-your-own-application’ in the enterprise is one of the most hotly debated subjects today. People increasingly expect tools at work that are as good and intuitive as those they have at home, or to bring those tools to work. Changes in population demographics, generational differences, education concerns and differences in quality and depth of skills are leading to shortfalls of critical skills in all economies, resulting in increased competition to recruit and retain the best talent. Green IT ‘Green IT’ has two major themes: ‘Green for IT’: IT contributes to sustainable development by for example a lower carbon footprint; ‘IT for green’: IT to serve green growth by enabling smarter, lower consumption, greener, solutions. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  39. 39. IT-OT convergence Servitization Social business IT-OT convergence in manufacturing involves integrated architecture of Product Lifecycle Management (PLM), manufacturing execution (MES) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. Services are increasingly being employed as profitable and stable revenue streams to enhance commoditizing product businesses. Some leading firms are adopting a ‘solutions’ business model, offering customized solutions to clients, where manufacturing no longer is a differentiating process. Social business includes all the social computing trends of the last decade and delivers an integrated vision on how to use social technology to leverage the enterprise ecosystem by making use of web technologies on any device for two way communication and collaboration. Smart Mobility Sustainability Smart Mobility turns context sensitive information on a mobile device--such as where people are, when they are there, what they are doing there and who they are (and who they connect with)--into direct and sustainable business advantage. Sustainability is now taking center stage in political, social and economic arenas. It demands new thinking about how organizations can ensure that their business operations thrive rather than just survive in a world of limited growth and increasingly limited resources. Lean everywhere Reducing enterprise costs and improving business processes remained high on the CEO agenda through 2013, with many CEOs investing in IT for these reasons. Lean provides a way to make continuous improvement through removal of waste and synchronization of processes to provide balanced throughput, matched to customer demand. Offshoring changes Many Western production institutions have de-localized parts of their business to the East, in particular China. There is a concern around the profitability of these investments as profit from the sale of these goods is far lower than if they were made in the West. Open Innovation Open Innovation encourages organizations to seek inspiration from a wider ecosystem that includes partners, suppliers, customers, competitors, universities, consumers, and the many sources of knowledge in today’s widely connected world. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology SoLoMo Social: leverage social behaviors to expand the reach and popularity of your service or application and to collect content (crowdsourcing). Local: leverage location information (using GPS, Wi-Fi or Cell-ID) to increase proximity and relevance of the content to the user. Mobile: use mobile as the primary vector of your service (mobile internet, native app referenced in app stores), enabling instant contribution and use. Traceability and visibility As workers become more mobile, and customers want to ensure the safety and origin of products, traceability will be key for products—from constituents to consumer— and for personnel movements and behaviors. Video Video will become the de facto means of communication, collaboration and knowledge dissemination. This is causing a major change in ways of working and will have a similarly big impact on the need for companies to have a strategy its use, storage and management. 39
  40. 40. Innovation Radars 2014+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar Mainstream Early adoption Universal Translators Adolescent Nanocomputers AI Enhanced Robots Emerging Miniaturized Power Wireless Power Context Broker Semantic Data Integration Machine-to-Machine Machine Learning Serious Gaming Computer Vision Privacy Enhancing Internet Technologies Virtual Retinal of Things Semantic Web Displays Semantic Search Engines Fabric Based Software Defined Distributed Social Computing Networks Mesh Networks Networks Big Data Physical Unclonable Next Generation Augmented Reality Processing Functions Wireless Complex NFC Communication Data Visualization Natural Language NoSQL Biometrics 3D LocationAvatars Plastics Holographic Analytics Natural Business Process Transistors 3D Printing Data Storage Language Management Cloud Orchestration Processing Systems Multi-Touch Web-Based Open Source Peer-to-Peer Hardware IPv6 3D Displays Mobile Payments Now Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 © Atos 2013. All rights reserved. The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail 40 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  41. 41. Each trend has been analyzed from three perspectives: potential size of impact on your business; likely time to impact your business and maturity. The radar diagram provides a pictorial view of our findings, allowing you to quickly understand how disruptive each trend is likely to be and the actions you might consider taking. Polar co-ordinates have been used to depict the likely time to impact your business along with the potential size of the impact. Colors are used to represent the maturity of each trend. `` Now-1 year: look today at how solutions address need. `` years: consider potential solutions 2-3 with maybe some pilots. `` years: understand now and 4+ consider the potential implications and how these could be addressed. `` Transformational: likely to require transformation changes within organizations. `` Emerging (Red): mainly expressed by academia and a very small number of specialized markets. `` High: it will have high impact at work on companies (process, products and services) and people walk of live as user / consumer. `` Adolescent (Amber): expressed more widely by analysts and thoughtleaders. `` Medium: it will impact people and organizations, enhancing their processes and services, or affecting users’ and consumers’ lives. `` Low: more likely to require minor improvements rather than radical changes. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology `` Early adopter (Green): seen more widely by clients markets. Clients starting to look for solutions. `` Mainstream (White): there is a clear need and many clients are implementing solutions. 41
  42. 42. 3D display Biometrics Distributed social networks Any display device that creates the perception of depth to the viewer can be described as a 3D display. 3D perception can be brought about by rendering a real volume in the air with light dots (volumetric display). It can also be artificially created. Automated use of unique and easy to measure characteristics of a person to determine and verify identity. Can be physiological (such as fingerprints, iris or veins) or behavioral (such as typing rhythm or voice). Social network initiatives are developing social networking platforms that could be operated in a federated and distributed mode. Many projects are federated under the ‘federated social web’ banner. 3D location-analytics Business Process Management Systems Geographical information systems (GIS) are systems capable of capturing, storing, analyzing and displaying information referenced according to its geographical location, the next generation also taking the third dimension into account. 3D printing 3D printing is a manufacturing technology that is used to build 3D objects. It superposes layers of material, originally a melted polymer, with each layer being built using techniques similar to inkjet printing. AI enhanced robots Coupled with robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI) enables the creation of realistic autonomic simulations of physical systems. The underlying technology is built around advanced machine learning algorithms. Augmented reality A user’s perception of the world is supplemented with relevant information via a device (headset or display). The superimposed information usually includes graphics, but could also be audio or other sensory information such as smell. Big Data processing The Internet has given rise to global companies such as Amazon, Facebook, Google and Twitter. They manage data on a massive scale and find ways to use it beyond its original means. 42 Enterprise decision management and rules Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) enable management of all the stages of business process lifecycle: design, modeling, execution, monitoring and optimization. EDM and rules spans enterprise governance of business decisions and business rules, up to implementation of business decisions and business rules supporting flexible business processes. Cloud orchestration Fabric-based computing Cloud orchestration relates to the connectivity of IT and business process levels between cloud environments. Fabric-based computing aims to provide scalable and cheap IT resources to many different users and applications. The fabric is defined as a physical fully meshed network of IT resources (CPU, memory, storage and network). Complex data visualization Business Intelligence (BI) tools feature traditional data visualization capabilities, such as the ability to generate curves, histograms or scatterplot from vectorial data; next generation data visualization covers much more complex Big Data problems. Computer vision Computer systems that are able to gather information from images and become artificial vision systems implemented in software and/or hardware. Context broker Context brokers collect and store data, deduce context and trigger actions based on that context. They are critical to the delivery of context-enriched services. Holographic data storage Holography records data through the full 3D volume of thick photosensitive storage medium. In addition, holography allows a million bits of data to be written and read in parallel with a single flash of light. Internet of Things (IoT) The next revolution following the World Wide Web; it will provide new bridges between real life and the virtual world. The Internet will no longer be merely a network of ‘human brain’, but will integrate real-life objects, sensors and physical activities. IPv6 IPv6 was designed in the 1990’s to address several deficiencies of IPv4 including address space, improved security and privacy, and multicasting. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  43. 43. Machine learning Nanocomputers Open source hardware Machine learning is a subfield of artificial intelligence concerned with the conception and design of algorithms that allow computer systems to ‘learn’ without being explicitly programmed. Literally, denotes computing hardware with fundamental components that measure in the realm of nanometers. Open source hardware (OSH) tries to extend the ideas and methodologies popularized in open source software development to hardware development. Machine-to-Machine Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technologies link machines to an information system, generally to automate existing humanly-performed operations or to enable new services based on remote connected devices Mesh networks Mesh networks are decentralized, local area networks, formed by meshes of peer nodes. Full-mesh has each node connected to every other node, while partial-mesh has each node connected only to some nodes. Miniaturized power Nanogenerators are energy-harvesting devices based on highly miniaturized structures capable of converting ambient energy, such as kinetic energy, into electric energy. Mobile payments Payments for products or services between two parties, with a mobile device, such as a mobile phone, to facilitate the act of paying. Multi-touch user interface Multi-touch user interfaces (MTUI) can recognize many gestures from multiple places on a device simultaneously, allowing several users to interact with an application at the same time or one user to interact at different points with multiple inputs. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology Natural language avatars Avatars and virtual assistants are the electronic equivalents of real-world reception desk staff, designed to help users on administrative tasks and to locate and browse information in a friendly, yet effective, way. Natural-language processing Natural-language processing (NLP) is the automatic ability to understand text or audio speech data and extract valuable information from it. Near Field Communication Near Field Communication (NFC) allows devices such as mobile phones to communicate wirelessly over a very short distance and perform tag or card reading, card emulation and device-to-device data exchange. Next generation wireless communication LTE and fifth-generation communications system (5G) are the next step in wireless communications. LTE is able to provide a comprehensive IP solution where voice, data and streamed multimedia give users an ‘anytime, anywhere’ basis with higher data rates than previous generations. Physical unclonable functions (PUF) Physically unclonable functions (PUF) can be seen as ‘hardware biometrics’ or a way to produce a ‘fingerprint’ of a physical object. Authentication of a PUF-equipped device is performed using a challenge-response protocol. Plastic transistors Manufacturing technologies now allow us to create polymer-based transistors. Latest advances allow semiconductors to be printed on various substrates. Privacy-enhancing technologies The career and personal life of internet users could be severely impacted if they are not cautious enough with the personal data they (or relatives) make available—through posts, multimedia content sharing, for instance. Semantic data integration Semantic data integration is an umbrella term for combining heterogeneous data using open standards and semantic technologies. Existing and legacy SQL-based solutions are already being turned into a semantic data cloud. NoSQL Semantic search engines NoSQL, which stands for Not Only SQL, refers to a trend in the field of database management systems that aims to give up the classical relational model. Semantic search is based on the notion of improving search engines by making the system aware of the meaning (semantics) of both the searcher query and the content of the searchable data. 43
  44. 44. Semantic Web Virtual retinal display The Semantic Web is an extension of the Web that aims to be directly processed by machines. It is based on the idea that semantic information is explicitly provided and not inferred in any way. Virtual retinal display (VRD) entails broadcasting images directly onto the retina of the human eye. Lasers and LEDs are used to project the image. To the user, images and information will appear as if floating in front of the eye. Serious gaming Any games that do not have entertainment, enjoyment or fun as their primary purpose. Serious gaming builds on simulation (to train by practice) and gamification. Software defined networks Network Intelligence aims to address the need for information visibility and for understanding real-time traffic. Software defined networks allow low-level network separation and fast reconfiguration based on software rules. Universal translators Speech recognition, machine translation and voice synthesis have significantly progressed and can be combined to deliver universal translators capable of transforming text or speech in a language to text or speech in another one. 44 Web-based peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer (P2P) network technology involves creating overlays on top of established networks. Overlays follow alternative metrics and addressing schemes to adapt the search for shared resources among the connected peers. Wireless power Wireless power aims at transferring electric energy to devices without the use of electric cords. Some devices, such as electric toothbrushes, smartphones and computer mice, can already be powered wirelessly. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  45. 45. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 45
  46. 46. 46 Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  47. 47. Telecoms, Media & Technology Market View Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology 47
  48. 48. Telecoms, Media & Technology Market View Telecoms Business Imperatives Ecosystems: drive, do not be driven Cash cow: how much money can you get out? Last decade’s attempts by Telecoms companies to safeguard their exclusive ownership of the customer relationship by spanning the full services spectrum—from traditional communication, broadband access, device sales, media content production and gaming to payment, banking and web communities—only rarely led to sustainable return. The defensive reflex of existing market players in these domains, and Telecoms companies missing competencies outside of their traditional footprint, led to a first rebound. Today, in all geographies, the revenue from the voice market is shrinking in both fixed and mobile, however the broadband data market is growing in both fixed and mobile. Telecoms companies are suffering significantly as their cash cow disappears into the distance, and they have a limited time to take advantage of the profit margins voice brings. Margins of the past are not accessible for current investments. Nonetheless, Telecoms companies need to strengthen their intermediary role in the digital value chain in order to actively participate in the evolution of new business models. They need to re-think partnership models, which might give them less control over the ultimate customer relationship but will enable them to accelerate demand for their core services. We expect strategic alliances with established brands in retail, media and entertainment, information technologies, finance and automotive to be key success factors in ensuring a prosperous future for today’s telecoms service providers. Finally, telecoms service providers should increasingly focus on innovation work in order to explore new business models and test the ground for value add solutions in the marketplace. Externalized ‘speedboat’ entities, such as spin-offs and joint ventures, will be best suited to compete in the highly dynamic environment of Open Innovation. 48 Business value: focus on network excellence In the uncertain waters of new global competition and emerging business models there is one fixed point on the compass of every network operator: its basic ‘bit pipe’ carrier services. It is the one most sizable item on the balance sheet and the core, indisputable value a telecoms company delivers to the rest of world. Thus, the importance of network capacity and service quality will grow in line with the increasing dependency that economies, governments and our social lives have on communication. profitability and creating competitive advantage. Networks need to be optimized to efficiently handle the ever growing volumes of video and peer-to-peer streaming through intelligent content distribution, encoding technologies, network optimization or data offloading strategies. Equally, subscriber policy and quality of service management needs to enable better, real-time control over clientspecific service delivery parameters. Virtual reality applications, 3D and HD video, IP-TV, online games with demanding real-time requirements and professional applications delivered to zero-client desktops from the Cloud will also create the business case for monetizing differentiated service levels in that market segment. Since the network and network connectivity layer are vital building blocks for successful Cloud implementations, the relevance of network excellence is growing. Network carriers need to explore next generation technologies, not only to increase capacity and customer experience, but also to implement strategies to turn technical features and capabilities into flexibly ‘productizable’ service differentiators. On the path to increasing commoditization of the bit pipe, intelligent management of the latter will be of paramount importance for sustaining Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  49. 49. Monetization: develop new models for core telecoms services The challenge of the monetization of telecoms services is a totally different when you look at emerging, evolving and saturated markets. While emerging markets are characterized by high demand and promising growth potential, it is the wallet size of the average customer that requires attention when launching products, calculating subsidies and offering payment schemes. On the opposite side, saturated markets in developed geographies feature extreme competition, high customer expectations and consumer friendly regulation. For the latter, we see monetization opportunities in number of directions: `` Tiered volume based data tariff schemes: As data usage soars, due to rich content, video, peer-to-peer communication and Web-TV, and, as Telecoms companies rarely receive payments from such third party applications, it is a natural for them to ask for a fair price-for-service scheme. This is nothing new to the industry, but should be re-evaluated in order to establish a new attitude to service value and differentiation after a few years of ‘all you can eat’ consumer mentality. At the same time Telecoms companies are also looking for third party sponsored content where the content provider pays for additional bandwidth needed for good quality viewing, or customers are offered to pay additional fee for the duration of a video clip to get higher bandwidth than defined by their subscription. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology `` Service levels match client usage profile: Service availability, latency and jitter, average capacity or peak performance guarantees and security levels are service features that matter to customers and should be seen as niche sources of revenues. Price elasticity and level of adoption will differ for customer segments and implementation costs will need to be relative. To manage the latter, telecoms providers need to enforce their interest regarding SLA management and drive its standardization in industry organizations, such as TMF or GSMA. `` ‘Anything connected’ telecoms services: Enhanced connectivity, almost ubiquitous mobility, intelligent and autonomous power supply and the inevitable move to IPv6 are all building the momentum for the transition into an anything connected world. The requirements for the underlying Machineto-Machine communications are going to differ greatly: smart electricity metering and health surveillance will have opposing needs in terms of availability, mobility and bandwidth. Telecoms companies that manage to productize adequate service types will reap the fruits of early market entry. `` Ubiquitous ‘all-in’ digital content delivery: A number of digital goods delivered by content providers over third party mobile networks place the consumer at risk of additional charges. Flat rates are not the only answer: instead, ‘sending party pays’—or subscription based pricing schemes that include any additional charges—could be implemented by cooperation between the digital content provider and the network operator. Ultimately, such models will help secure a telecoms company’s revenue share with over-the-top (OTT) services. `` Value-based tariff schemes: Increasingly, operators are offering pricing metrics based on value—metrics that more closely follow the usage patterns of the end-user. Through profiling analysis based on empirical data, and even end-user interviews, operators are increasingly offering tariffs based on value. With LTE, telecoms companies will be able to manage their networks to give priority to bandwidth in certain locations, for example. This could be integrated into new service bundles. M2M provides new value-added services There will be a ‘one-to-many’ relationship between an individual and his/her connected devices. These connected devices will not all be controlled by the Telecoms service provider (nor any other industry or player). Such connected devices could be user interface devices (such as PCs, tablets, smartphones or connected TVs), but also increasingly M2M--mainly metering--devices. All these devices might have a temporary situational relevance to the end customer. The greatest value would be provided to the end user by correlating and analyzing the data coming from/generated by these devices in real time, and acting on it in real-time with new value-added services. 49
  50. 50. Agility: avoid inflexible BSS/OSS that slows your pace Every telecoms provider’s CIO is familiar with the easy argument that enterprise IT is constantly behind schedule. It is the Business and Operations Support Systems (BSS/OSS) that are the usual suspects. Your company should be able to respond quickly to the latest surprise move of the competition, and the newest genius of corporate marketing should not need months to bring new products to full commercial use. The competition is further increasing along two dimensions: entry into the market of new low-cost competition and the innovations coming from new over-the-top entrants. Telecoms companies need to be agile to act, as well as react, in response. The CIO’s question when it comes to IT innovation is not about the ‘if’, but rather about the ‘which first’: 50 `` Technological refresh projects need to be undertaken to catch-up with state of the art IT. `` introduction of new Radio Access The Network technologies (that cater for more bandwidth and providing self-organizing and optimizing networks) will need full integration and support of the OSS/BSS in order to gain the maximum benefits of the new technologies. At current stage, IT is in catch-up mode and needs executive attention and smart budget allocation, combined with reliable, powerful partners to execute it. To get the most out of LTE (the technology that partly has to satisfy the huge data demand), OSS (and, to a certain extent, also BSS) needs radical changes: it needs to support more network technologies and provide more automation. `` Innovation pressures for new services, partnership schemes and wholesale arrangements need to be accounted for in the BSS/OSS stack. `` promise of cost optimizations made The by IT virtualization, new enterprise desktop solutions and Cloud based services cannot be ignored. `` Completely new domains of business, such as e-Health, Smart Grid, app stores, Cloud offerings, connected home and related partner ecosystems need to be enabled. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  51. 51. Telecoms, Media & Technology Market View Telecoms Business Trends Privacy: strengthen your brand’s trustworthiness Our social media engagement, online commerce, mobile payments, apps usage and growing number of sensors (monitoring our location, direction, speed, time, sporting activities, environmental temperature and more) leave long trails in the digital cyberspace. Our usage patterns, buying preferences and habits are of high interest to commerce and advertisement companies, which turn such knowledge into better placed, more relevant infotainment and buying suggestions. Moreover, in an ‘anything connected’ world, personal digital assistants will provide help in search and discovery, co-ordination and scheduling, planning and control in a variety of private and work situations. The value of a personalized digital environment is increasingly being appreciated by users. As a consequence, we will see people’s perception about data privacy very much evolving along the lines of the value its mere exposure creates. In the future, we expect users to share privacy information far beyond today’s boundaries if they obtain corresponding value in return. At the same time, they are going to become much more discriminative about the brands and institutions they trust. Their loyalty will be significantly determined by the way their private data is being used and protected; thus, the sensitive management of this relationship should be at the top of companies’ priority list for the next few years. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology Telecoms companies want to be key players in the ecosystem that is forming around the personal data economy. They are using the trust they have built to position themselves positively next to the over-the-top data companies. Irrespective of the value that enterprises offer in return for private data, stringent protection against fraudulent use by third parties remains a basic condition for a trustful brand. High standards of data privacy and IT security management have to be established and kept at all times by telecoms companies so as not to put this vital asset at risk. An uneven recovery Since its deep financial crisis in 2008/2009, the world has witnessed a fragile and uneven recovery with major developed economies only slowly increasing their pace of growth. The indications for 2013 were for a further slow-down across Europe; however the rest of the world was expected to hold on to a healthy level of growth, offering sound business potential for the telecommunication industry. In a macroeconomic context: `` US market is still growing, mainly with The smartphones. `` expect to see frontier economies We (China, India and Brazil should not be called emerging anymore) clearly drive global telecoms market growth. Although the BRIC countries are reaching higher mobile penetration, the usage of smartphones—the driver behind high data usage—is a different issue. India is quite different from China or Brazil: in India there is a rapid uptake of mobile communications, partly driven by low-end mobile devices. `` Africa is evolving in a similar way to India. Saturated markets will continue to struggle with the dragging ARPU levels of a slowly increasing customer base. In Europe smartphones are replacing traditional mobiles in significant numbers. 51
  52. 52. Web giants will drive the digital evolution Undoubtedly, the buzz around Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and the like will continue to flood the industry headlines over the next years. Disruptive innovators will spark further new developments in the digital world, expanding its footprint in our private and professional lives. New habits of interpersonal communication, a new definition of ‘social’ competence, a growing gamization and the need for always being in touch, from anywhere: all this and more creates excellent revenue opportunities for the advertisement and digital merchandise industry. Clearly, companies engaged in this space are the new age winners. Despite telecoms service providers still struggling to place their stakes in this field of play, such developments are good news to them because the digital business and lifestyle can only be kept alive on the back of reliable telecoms network operators. Data transport and connectivity businesses are on their way to becoming a utility service: commoditized, but highly critical to the public and the global economy. To keep their positions, telecoms companies are going to need to make heavy investments into new infrastructure technologies and to seek expansion into frontier markets. The addition of national regulatory incentives is expected to be a catalyst for this process. 52 No winner to be expected (yet) in the race for dominance over the connected home While mobility is being talked about on a worldwide scale, people’s homes remain a strategic battlefield for a share of the consumer’s attention. The gaming industry will continue to place new generation consoles into the center of the gamer’s entertainment experience and foster the adoption of ever new human-to-machine interfaces, like Kinetic or Wii U. Strong online gamer communities will readily adopt new services such as video and audio calls (is Microsoft going to include Skype into its next Xbox?), instant messaging, blogging and voting and also video-ondemand, catch-up TV, HD and 3D TV on their games consoles. Equally, Pay-TV companies are going to offer new set-top-boxes with the connectivity and intelligence to select and display high quality media content from a variety of sources in accordance with our personal preference profile. Broadband providers will be exploring ways to bridge the gap between the simple internet router and a multifunctional media and entertainment hub: a gap that makes the difference between a commodity bit pipe provider and a digital lifestyle company. Beyond that, the digital home hub has the potential to play a key role in the future connected home, supporting energy and security management solutions, medical surveillance and assisted living services. We expect telecoms companies to engage more intensely in these domains, with dedicated business units and innovative market approaches. However, the mobile phone is for many people the default communication device at home and, as such, data off-load via Wi-Fi offers new opportunities for mobile operators. In the first place if off-loads heavy data streams, but by detecting a mobile phone in its home zone it will allow operators to offer services that fits the needs at home. The mobile revolution continues People’s increasing mobility has been one of the main trends over the past decades and, consequently, is nothing new; however, the way that intelligent devices will further ease and drive our mobility is still in its infancy. Ever ‘smarter’ phones and ‘easier’ computers are going to further converge to a new device category: the smart mobile. Telephony is just one of many functions that it provides, with number crunching not one of its main features either. Today, smart mobiles already encompass a voice and video phone, text messenger, camera, music and multimedia player, games console, navigation system, video beamer, remote control, personal information manager, social communities and enterprise application clients, plus a few more features—all under one umbrella. Although specialized devices provide higher performance, one simple argument makes the case for the smart mobile: the best camera is the one that you are carrying with you whenever it is needed! Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology
  53. 53. Next, we expect to see increasing integration and automation of all these features into a more intelligent personal assistant concept. Further, new sensors are going to enrich the context-awareness of the smart mobile. An enhanced ability to set personal preferences and define simple work instructions (content filters, alarms for friends in the neighborhood, blacklisting of certain brand’s advertisements, automatic searches for product offers, to name a few) and a tighter coupling with our work environment are going to increase the spectrum of tasks our digital assistant will be able to execute on our behalf. The convenience factor is going to further drive demand for lighter, more flexible and durable mobiles; mobile device sales have outpaced stationary PCs. Substantial efforts have been spent on the development of high-capacity batteries, the standardization of induction-based, wireless charging solutions and the active energy management of the mobile device. Apps revenues will continue to soar irrespective of the technology they are implemented in. Tablets, extended by an optional keyboard, placed into a virtualized, zero-client IT environment and guarded by maturing security appliances, will enable the proliferation of the Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) concept into the business context. Ultimately, smart mobiles are going to transform into a personalized user interface for future smart Clouds. Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology ‘Social competence’ is being newly defined Always in touch, informed of the latest community news in real-time, following brands and friends on Twitter, writing blogs and producing own videos on YouTube: this is what millions associate today with the term ‘social competence’. The new ‘social’ is not confined by geographical boundaries, is always on, non-discriminative and easy to use. It offers offer quick paths to self-exploration and provides a great stage for self-expression. Without any doubt, social communities will continue to thrive. As a new quality, communication in the digital space has two important characteristics: firstly, it provides easy access to huge audiences all over the world and, secondly, it is being constantly documented in lasting, digital formats. By means of semantic search and data mining, valuable knowledge is being derived about sentiments, trends and priorities in the Web. Telecoms companies will accelerate the adoption of social media marketing and monitoring, as well as community based sales and service, substantially. The social phenomenon will help increase visibility of the end-customer. Improved trend prediction models have the potential to help reduce churn, better campaign targeting will improve cross-selling and telecoms companies will have the opportunity to target friends of customers as potential new customers. Telecoms companies will become more serious about their Cloud ambitions We expect to see telecoms service providers adopt the cloud business as a market expansion priority, and for that they need to build IT capability. Big market players like NTT Communications, Deutsche Telekom, BT and FT-Orange, along with smaller enterprise solutions providers, have built up capability over the last decade through a critical mass of IT related business. Others are building strong IT partnerships, ensuring they maintain some ownership. The convergence of mobile, fixed and internet provider’s operations and the ever growing ‘IT-zation’ of telecoms technologies as a whole, strengthen the case for telecoms companies’ strategic expansion into IT related business. At present, telecoms companies offer a portfolio of enterprise and corporate services ranging from desktop services to managed storage and data centers operations. For the next step they will need to respond to the fast march of Google, Amazon, Dropbox and the likes, who are conquering the consumer customer base with sticky cloudbased services that are easy to use, globally accessible, highly available and, beyond all, inexpensive. This is why we expect to witness some acquisitions of mid-sized IT players or partnerships with IT players by telecoms companies in the near future. 53