Article review - "Sometimes the dragon wins: A perspective on information-age warfare"


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Article review - "Sometimes the dragon wins: A perspective on information-age warfare"

  1. 1. Sometimes the Dragon Wins: A Perspective on Information-Age Warfare Author: Colonel Charles J. Dunlap Jr. United States Air Force Presenter’s Name: Sohel Imroz Date: March 2, 2004
  2. 2. About the Author <ul><li>Joined USAF in 1972 </li></ul><ul><li>Colonel since 1993 </li></ul><ul><li>Brigadier General since 2002 </li></ul><ul><li>http:// =5293 </li></ul>
  3. 3. Background of the Article <ul><li>The author’s experience in Somalia </li></ul><ul><li>How We Lost the High-Tech War of 2007: A warning from the future (1/29/1996) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not a technical report, but an imagined tale </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Defeat of US in 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10 propositions </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Proposition #1 <ul><li>Our most likely future adversaries will be unlike ourselves. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New Warrior Class </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Do not behave rationally </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Capable of doing indescribable atrocities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Willing to self sacrifice </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Brought up to fight, think fighting honorable, killing in warfare glorious (J. Keegan, British Military Historian) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Follow a charismatic leader, or an ideology </li></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Proposition #2 <ul><li>Advance Information Technology will facilitate the consolidation of potential opponents. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Effective methods of communications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decline in the cost and higher affordability of all kinds of communication devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use of “telepresence” and holographic imagery </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Proposition #3 <ul><li>Some analysts underestimate how future technologies will empower warrior people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combat simulators and computerized teaching technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User-friendly software, easy-to-use systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Battlefield will become technologically “level” – COTS technology </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Proposition #3 (contd.) <ul><li>Advantages of non-democratic opponents: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Less complicated rules and regulations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shorter procurement process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are our current acquisition laws dynamic enough to accommodate rapid change in Information Technology? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>NO </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Proposition #4 <ul><li>The age of mass warfare may not be over. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Our adversaries have same technology as we have. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology neutralizes expertise and superior training. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: The side with more combatants win. </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Proposition #5 <ul><li>Impact of Information Technology on media will be the most immediate and powerful </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Past: Media had limited access to battlefield. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future: Media has full access. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Own surveillance satellites, self contained communication system </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aerobureau has flying newsroom </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Press becomes “poor man’s intelligence service”. </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Proposition #6 <ul><li>Media and personal communication devices will make it difficult to carry a war on for much more than thirty days. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Virtual presence” of combatants will allow terrifying sights of death and mutilation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>CAUTION! Some pictures may be very disturbing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Result: Domestic and international pressure to end war as quickly as possible. </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Proposition #7 <ul><li>Don’t focus on “information dominance”, but on developing strategies on operating in a “information transparent” environment . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Each side knows everything about the other. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reason: Personal communication devices, technology-empowered media, etc . </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Proposition #8 <ul><li>Information warfare will not become bloodless, rather, it will be more savage. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Question: Can we win a war without firing a shot? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Answer of U.S. Army Officer: Yes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reason: Virus, jam broadcasting, zero bank balance, etc. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Answer of Colonel Dunlap: No </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reason: Redundancy, opponents may not fight or quit for same reasons. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Proposition #8 (Contd.) <ul><ul><li>How the opponents will fight against us? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t destroy information structure, but try to smash spirit </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. soldier dragged over Somalia streets </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Open display of atrocities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Torture of the POWs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Recruit young teenagers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Women? The movie “Rules of Engagement”, “The Terrorist” </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Guerilla attack </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Build military facilities beneath public facilities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hostage taking </li></ul></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Proposition #9 <ul><li>Future adversaries may adopt “indirect approach”. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t attack the U.S., but attack a weaker country </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Influence U.S. actions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Create turmoil in U.S. by collapsing the Mexican economy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sink oil tankers near U.S. maritime area </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Proposition #10 <ul><li>Use of new techno-weapons, and unexpected use of traditional weapons. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not every culture values self preservation above all else. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Suicidal attacks </li></ul></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Conclusion <ul><li>Not to underestimate the enemy. </li></ul><ul><li>“ We cannot expect the enemy planning his war to suit our weapons; we must plan our weapons to fight war where, when, and how the enemy chooses.” </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(Admiral Charles Turner Joy) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>