Reality Check
Why fossil fuels are here for the long run
– and how to still fix the climate
Bjørn Lomborg
www.lomborg.com
Making a better world
• Rational, not fashionable
– Doing good vs. feeling good
• Remove our myths
– Panic is unlikely to ...
We Care About Global Warming
But scaring people silly doesn’t
actually help
Higher mortality with heat?
• Absolutely more heat deaths
• Number of deaths
– Dying from increased heat in the UK by 2050...
Better policies against heat
Policy innovation
• Almost no heat deaths in the US
– Because of air conditioning
• Cities mu...
Sea level rise
• Sea levels will rise
• But not a catastophe
– 30cm (18-59cm) over the next 100 years
• Not Al Gore’s 20 f...
More malaria from heat?
• Malaria is weakly correlated to heat
• But strongly correlated to wealth
– So what should we foc...
Which knob to tackle malaria?
• Deaths avoided
per year
– Kyoto $180bn
– Malaria $3bn
Yet, Why Not Just
Get Off Fossil Fuels?
Not so easy
Why Fossil Fuels?
• We don’t burn fossil fuels to annoy Al
Gore
– Fossil fuels provide everything we like about
civilizati...
Global Energy, 1890-2100
Global Energy, 1890-2100
Global Energy, 1890-2100
Global Energy, 1890-2100
Global Energy, 1890-2100
Global Energy, 1890-2100
We’re still getting most energy from
fossil fuels (2008)
IEA 2010
And still most energy from fossil
fuels even in IEA optimistic 2035
IEA 2010
Simon et al. 1994 & EIA 1997, 1999, 2000, 2012
But, Aren’t We Running
Out of Oil?
Bottom line: more renewables till
2035 won’t change much
IEA 2010
Cutting CO2 Hasn’t Worked
So Far
Rio, Kyoto, EU 20-20 etc.
For a very simple reason:
Cutting CO2 is expensive
OECD 2009
Climate policies little impact:
Kyoto
• Actual Kyoto
– Almost no effect
• Effect
– $180 billion per
year
– 0.004o
C
reduct...
But EU lived up to Kyoto?
• Yes
– But mostly
by ’cheating’
– Outsourcing
to China
Peters et al. 2011Peters et al. 2011
EU 20-20 policy
Böhringer et al 2009, Tol 2012Böhringer et al 2009, Tol 2012
• Reduce emissions 20% by 2020
• Renewables t...
Climate effect of EU 2020
Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006
0.05o
C
Climate effect of EU 2020, 30%
Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006
0.05o
C
0.01o
C
Cost
2.9% or
$540bn/yr
Additional
$290bn/yr
Cost...
• BAU
– Continues up like
past 50 years
• 50% below 1990
– Best conceivable
outcome
– A bit like Somalia
– Expensive (12.9...
• Even very large cut
– No effect by mid-
century
Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006
CO2-reductions:
Unrealistic and inefficient
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear
plants (30GW)plants (30GW)
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear
plantsplants
2. 17,000 wind2. 17,000...
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear
plantsplants
2. 17,000 wind mills2. ...
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear
plantsplants
2. 17,000 wind mills2. ...
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear
plantsplants
2. 17,000 wind mills2. ...
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear
plantsplants
2. 17,000 wind mills2. ...
How do we reduce emissions
50% below 1990 in 2050?
• REPEATREPEAT EACHEACH
AND EVERYAND EVERY
YEARYEAR TIL 2050TIL 2050
1....
We Need Smarter Ways
Forward
Environment meets economics
Polar Bears
• Are the polar bears in trouble?
– Yes, less ice means fewer polar bears, but
• Global population increasing
...
Tackling climate
• Four ways
– Cut emissions
– Green R&D
– Geo-engineering
– Adaptation
Cut emissions
• Fundamental facts
– Not going to happen in any major way anytime
soon
– As long as green energy is more ex...
Thanks to Germany:
How not-to
• German solar policies
– The largest per cap PV capacity in the world
– Fulfills 0.3% of to...
Adaptation
• Not as sexy, but much cheaper and quicker
to tackle impacts
– Flooding
– Heat waves
– Etc.
• Benefits about $...
Geo-engineering
• Only way to buy insurance
• Shouldn’t do now, but we
should investigate
• Benefits to research about
$10...
Green R&D
• Unless we make green energy cheaper we
will never cut back on fossil fuels
– World spends about $10bn/yr on R&...
ISES 2013  - Day 3 - Bjorn Lomborg - Crossroads to a Sustainable Future
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ISES 2013 - Day 3 - Bjorn Lomborg - Crossroads to a Sustainable Future

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Will We Ever Overcome Our Carbon Addiction?


The world economy is very carbon intensive, however there are vast opportunities to transform this into a greener economy meeting a sustainable future. Are we able to go through with this transition or are we carbon addicts?

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  • 10min
  • 0.1% From German overview, p12
  • From 2010 the UN climate panel rather optimistic scenario
  • 1 to 2 billion cars in 2030,coal and oil saved the whales, and 27% of US farmland for horses, horse manure
  • Fracking gas
  • Fukushima,
  • Biomass bigger in 1890, dirty Going towards modern biomass One terrible – burning food NOTICE: renewables have been declining during the last century and till today!
  • Solar, wind all, geothermals and lots hope
  • 20min IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • 25
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total 1.8/-6 is Gabon -4,-6 is Liberia 7,31; 13 is Bhutan
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total
  • 35
  • 40
  • 0.1% From German overview, p12
  • 0.1% From German overview, p12
  • IEA Outlook 2010, p280
  • IEA Outlook 2010, p275 $4 trillion, p296, 63% for electricity, 37% for biofuels
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009 estimate TPES in 2007 at 12.026 Gtoe (p25), and total renew at 1.492Gtoe, wind at 14.9Mtoe and solar/tide at 9.6Mtoe (p31), Thus: 12,4% renewables, and wind/solar at 0.2% Renewable down from 12.7% in 1990 to 12.4 (p28), even more pronounced for electricity (19.5% to 17.9%, p29)
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total
  • With major reduction in emissions from less coal etc in New Policies, then 0.2oC reduction and 6cm less sea level rise Sea level reduction 0.76mm or 0.03in
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total 1.8/-6 is Gabon -4,-6 is Liberia 7,31; 13 is Bhutan
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total
  • IEA Renewables 2009, p31, non-oecd biomass vs total
  • 0.1% From German overview, p12
  • 0.1% From German overview, p12
  • ISES 2013 - Day 3 - Bjorn Lomborg - Crossroads to a Sustainable Future

    1. 1. Reality Check Why fossil fuels are here for the long run – and how to still fix the climate Bjørn Lomborg www.lomborg.com
    2. 2. Making a better world • Rational, not fashionable – Doing good vs. feeling good • Remove our myths – Panic is unlikely to be a good guide to making smart choices • Spend our money best – Overworrying about some things mean underworrying about other things
    3. 3. We Care About Global Warming But scaring people silly doesn’t actually help
    4. 4. Higher mortality with heat? • Absolutely more heat deaths • Number of deaths – Dying from increased heat in the UK by 2050 • 2,000 more – But cold deaths in the UK by 2050 • 20,000 fewer – This also holds true globally • Net more than 1.4 million fewer deaths by 2050 Bosello, Roson, & Tol, 2006; Keatinge & Donaldson, 2004; Keatinge et al., 2000Bosello, Roson, & Tol, 2006; Keatinge & Donaldson, 2004; Keatinge et al., 2000
    5. 5. Better policies against heat Policy innovation • Almost no heat deaths in the US – Because of air conditioning • Cities much warmer than countryside – Lack of water, more black surfaces – Take London: • Add more water and greenery – 8o C reduction in heat waves • Make more light surfaces – paint the tarmac – 10o C reduction in heat waves
    6. 6. Sea level rise • Sea levels will rise • But not a catastophe – 30cm (18-59cm) over the next 100 years • Not Al Gore’s 20 feet (6 meters) – 30cm the last 150 years • Did anyone notice?
    7. 7. More malaria from heat? • Malaria is weakly correlated to heat • But strongly correlated to wealth – So what should we focus on? • Temperature? • Treatment?
    8. 8. Which knob to tackle malaria? • Deaths avoided per year – Kyoto $180bn – Malaria $3bn
    9. 9. Yet, Why Not Just Get Off Fossil Fuels? Not so easy
    10. 10. Why Fossil Fuels? • We don’t burn fossil fuels to annoy Al Gore – Fossil fuels provide everything we like about civilization • Heat, cold, transport, food, electricity – Gives us power that we never had before • Why was it fun to be Louis XIV? – Average European have the power of 150 people 24x7 – Americans 300 people, Indians 15
    11. 11. Global Energy, 1890-2100
    12. 12. Global Energy, 1890-2100
    13. 13. Global Energy, 1890-2100
    14. 14. Global Energy, 1890-2100
    15. 15. Global Energy, 1890-2100
    16. 16. Global Energy, 1890-2100
    17. 17. We’re still getting most energy from fossil fuels (2008) IEA 2010
    18. 18. And still most energy from fossil fuels even in IEA optimistic 2035 IEA 2010
    19. 19. Simon et al. 1994 & EIA 1997, 1999, 2000, 2012 But, Aren’t We Running Out of Oil?
    20. 20. Bottom line: more renewables till 2035 won’t change much IEA 2010
    21. 21. Cutting CO2 Hasn’t Worked So Far Rio, Kyoto, EU 20-20 etc.
    22. 22. For a very simple reason: Cutting CO2 is expensive OECD 2009
    23. 23. Climate policies little impact: Kyoto • Actual Kyoto – Almost no effect • Effect – $180 billion per year – 0.004o C reduction by 2100 (now: 0.0002o C) Böringer et al., 2003Böringer et al., 2003 , EIA 2011, CBS 2011, EIA 2011, CBS 2011
    24. 24. But EU lived up to Kyoto? • Yes – But mostly by ’cheating’ – Outsourcing to China Peters et al. 2011Peters et al. 2011
    25. 25. EU 20-20 policy Böhringer et al 2009, Tol 2012Böhringer et al 2009, Tol 2012 • Reduce emissions 20% by 2020 • Renewables to 20% share • Cost estimates from 5 models – $250 billion annually 2020-2100 – Cost across the century is $20-30 trillion • For every $1 spent, the EU will avoid ¢3 of global climate damage
    26. 26. Climate effect of EU 2020 Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006 0.05o C
    27. 27. Climate effect of EU 2020, 30% Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006 0.05o C 0.01o C Cost 2.9% or $540bn/yr Additional $290bn/yr Cost 1.3% or $250 bn/yr
    28. 28. • BAU – Continues up like past 50 years • 50% below 1990 – Best conceivable outcome – A bit like Somalia – Expensive (12.9% GDP, $40 trillion/yr) Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006 CO2-reductions: Unrealistic and inefficient
    29. 29. • Even very large cut – No effect by mid- century Nordhaus 2006Nordhaus 2006 CO2-reductions: Unrealistic and inefficient
    30. 30. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plants (30GW)plants (30GW)
    31. 31. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plantsplants 2. 17,000 wind2. 17,000 wind mills (50GW)mills (50GW)
    32. 32. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plantsplants 2. 17,000 wind mills2. 17,000 wind mills 3. 400 biomass3. 400 biomass power plantspower plants (16GW)(16GW)
    33. 33. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plantsplants 2. 17,000 wind mills2. 17,000 wind mills 3. 400 biomass3. 400 biomass power plantspower plants 4. Two Three4. Two Three Gorges damsGorges dams (50GW)(50GW)
    34. 34. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plantsplants 2. 17,000 wind mills2. 17,000 wind mills 3. 400 biomass3. 400 biomass power plantspower plants 4. Two Three Gorges4. Two Three Gorges damsdams 5. 42 coal and5. 42 coal and gas with CCgas with CC
    35. 35. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plantsplants 2. 17,000 wind mills2. 17,000 wind mills 3. 400 biomass3. 400 biomass power plantspower plants 4. Two Three Gorges4. Two Three Gorges damsdams 5. 42 coal and gas5. 42 coal and gas with CCwith CC
    36. 36. How do we reduce emissions 50% below 1990 in 2050? • REPEATREPEAT EACHEACH AND EVERYAND EVERY YEARYEAR TIL 2050TIL 2050 1. 30 new nuclear1. 30 new nuclear plantsplants 2. 17,000 wind mills2. 17,000 wind mills 3. 400 biomass3. 400 biomass power plantspower plants 4. Two Three Gorges4. Two Three Gorges damsdams 5. 42 coal and gas5. 42 coal and gas with CCwith CC
    37. 37. We Need Smarter Ways Forward Environment meets economics
    38. 38. Polar Bears • Are the polar bears in trouble? – Yes, less ice means fewer polar bears, but • Global population increasing • 1960: about 5,000 • Now: about 22,000 • But what can we do? – If we implement the Kyoto Protocol • Save 1 polar bear each year – But each year we shoot polar bears • 300-500 each year
    39. 39. Tackling climate • Four ways – Cut emissions – Green R&D – Geo-engineering – Adaptation
    40. 40. Cut emissions • Fundamental facts – Not going to happen in any major way anytime soon – As long as green energy is more expensive than fossil fuels it won’t be used • If it was cheaper, everyone would use it
    41. 41. Thanks to Germany: How not-to • German solar policies – The largest per cap PV capacity in the world – Fulfills 0.3% of total primary energy – Cost is about $130bn in first decade • Effect is to postpone global warming 37 hrs
    42. 42. Adaptation • Not as sexy, but much cheaper and quicker to tackle impacts – Flooding – Heat waves – Etc. • Benefits about $2-3 back on the dollar
    43. 43. Geo-engineering • Only way to buy insurance • Shouldn’t do now, but we should investigate • Benefits to research about $1000 back on the dollar – If it works, we could potentially fix all of climate change for $6 billion
    44. 44. Green R&D • Unless we make green energy cheaper we will never cut back on fossil fuels – World spends about $10bn/yr on R&D now – Nobels suggest spending $100bn/yr (0.2% of GDP – $30bn from EU) • This would likely make green energy dramatically cheaper than fossil fuels over the next 2-4 decades • Fix global warming in medium term • Benefits about €11 back on the euro

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