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10 Current Trends in iPhone Gaming<br />Stuart Dredge<br />Mobile Entertainment / iPhone Games Bulletin<br />
Who Am I?<br />UK journalist covering mobile, games and digital entertainment<br />Mobile Entertainment / Music Ally<br />...
iPhone Games Bulletin<br />Launched in June 2009<br />Daily free email newsletter offering iPhone games industry news and ...
1. The iphone games goldrush<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
The Big Numbers<br />Addressable base of 50m+ devices<br />30m iPhones and 20m iPod touches<br />More than 3 billion App S...
Developers Striking It Rich<br />10m		Paid iPhone games sold by Gameloft since		the launch of the App Store<br />$1,687	Re...
Analysts’ Big Numbers<br />$2.8 billion	iPhone games revenues in 2014 – 			24% of handheld market (DFC)<br />18.7 billion ...
2. Heavy usage but ferocious competition<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Heavy Usage<br />72% of iPhone users have downloaded 10 or more apps (Compete)<br />Average user has downloaded 65 apps fo...
Ferocious Competition<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Ferocious Competition<br />4,491 apps released on 18-Dec-09 (AppShopper)<br />80% of apps are not actively installed (Apps...
3. Piracy and ip infringement<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Piracy on the App Store<br />$450 million of lost revenues (24/7 Wall St)<br />Based on 75% piracy rate and 1.5bn illegal ...
Solutions to Piracy?<br />There is no catch-all solution. Sorry.<br />Turn pirates into paying customers - in-app payments...
IP infringement<br />Several  high-profile examples of IP battles<br />Edge / Edgy / Killer Edge Racing<br />Stoneloops of...
4. Pricing evolution<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Prices. How low can they go?<br />2008-09: Developer complaints about dive to 99c<br />Late 2009: Concerted efforts to buc...
Top Paid Games chart<br />Avg Price: $2.34<br />11 games at 99c<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Top Grossing Games chart<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br /><ul><li>Avg Price: $4.74
2 games at 99c
One free game</li></li></ul><li>In-App Payments<br />Eliminate Pro, Skies of Glory, Tap Tap Revenge 3<br />Mixed success<b...
What About Advertising?<br />In-app advertising fuelling big acquisitions<br />Apple/Quattro and Google/AdMob<br />Could d...
5. Promotion & discovery<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Promotion<br />2009: Pubs and devs got savvy about marketing<br />More use of social media in particular<br />Developer-le...
Discovery<br />Developers have focused on App Store charts<br />Marketing strategies based on ‘get into the top 100’<br />...
6. Social and connectivity<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Social Games Platforms<br />Fierce competition: OpenFeint, Scoreloop, Plus+, Crystal, AGON Online, GameSpy...<br />Differe...
iPhone + Facebook<br />So far, Facebook/iPhone links have been limited<br />Facebook Connect used mainly for viral buzz<br...
7. Publishing shake-up<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
New Publishers Coming In<br />Console firms now interested in mobile<br />GTA: Chinatown Wars out this week<br />Activisio...
iPhone Firms Going Out<br />Games can build buzz on iPhone then extend<br />Fieldrunners went to PSP Minis, then mobile<br...
iPhone v PSP Minis Pricing<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Developers Skilling Up<br />Developers have been self-publishing since the early days of the App Store<br />BUT now they’r...
Who’s Making Money?<br />Source: Top 20 App Store charts, 13-Jan-09<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
8. Apple as platform owner<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
App Store Improvements<br />Top Grossing chart to highlight biggest earners<br />Genius for Apps to help discovery<br />Re...
But what next?<br />Will Apple publish more first-party games?<br />Recruiting Video Game Artist for ‘interactive multimed...
9. Ipod touch’s importance<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
iPod Touch For Games<br />“What customers told us was, they started to see it as a games machine...” – Steve Jobs<br />iPo...
iTouch Christmas<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
10. Rise of the not-quite-game<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
Not Quite Games, But...<br />Foursquare / Gowalla / MyTown / Rummble<br />Turning real-world social lives into virtual gam...
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10 Trends in iPhone Gaming

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Trends in the iPhone games market - a presentation from the Mobile Games Forum 2010 conference in London, Jan-10.

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10 Trends in iPhone Gaming

  1. 1. 10 Current Trends in iPhone Gaming<br />Stuart Dredge<br />Mobile Entertainment / iPhone Games Bulletin<br />
  2. 2. Who Am I?<br />UK journalist covering mobile, games and digital entertainment<br />Mobile Entertainment / Music Ally<br />Also Sunday Times, Recombu, What Mobile<br />And my own things...<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  3. 3. iPhone Games Bulletin<br />Launched in June 2009<br />Daily free email newsletter offering iPhone games industry news and analysis<br />Sign up at www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />Also www.islatepicks.com (tablet tech and apps)<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  4. 4. 1. The iphone games goldrush<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  5. 5. The Big Numbers<br />Addressable base of 50m+ devices<br />30m iPhones and 20m iPod touches<br />More than 3 billion App Store downloads<br />7.4m iPhones sold in Q3 2009<br />17.8% share of smartphone market (Canalys)<br />2.5% share of ALL global handsets (Strategy Analytics)<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  6. 6. Developers Striking It Rich<br />10m Paid iPhone games sold by Gameloft since the launch of the App Store<br />$1,687 Revenues per hour of dvpt time forNimbleBit’s Scoops ($269,929 total)<br />2m Tap Tap Revenge 3 downloads in a week last Christmas after going free<br />10 days How long it took Playmesh to rack up 1m free downloads of iFarm<br />13.5m Downloads of Backflip Studios games in seven months ($1.75m of revenue)<br />79,422 Doodle Jump’s sales on Christmas Day alone<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  7. 7. Analysts’ Big Numbers<br />$2.8 billion iPhone games revenues in 2014 – 24% of handheld market (DFC)<br />18.7 billion App downloads in 2014 – of which 20% will be from Apple devices (Ovum)<br />610 million Paid apps in first 2bn iPhone downloads – generating $900m of developer revenues (Pinch Media)<br />36 million Number of iPhones that Apple will sell in 2010 (Piper Jaffray)<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  8. 8. 2. Heavy usage but ferocious competition<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  9. 9. Heavy Usage<br />72% of iPhone users have downloaded 10 or more apps (Compete)<br />Average user has downloaded 65 apps for their device, spending $80 in total (AppsFire – Sep 09)<br />85% of UK iPhone owners pay for games (UK National Gamers Survey – Dec 09)<br />51% for Samsung, 38% for Sony Ericsson and Nokia<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  10. 10. Ferocious Competition<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  11. 11. Ferocious Competition<br />4,491 apps released on 18-Dec-09 (AppShopper)<br />80% of apps are not actively installed (AppsFire)<br />80,000 out of 100,000 at the time of the survey (Nov-09)<br />Even those that are can be short-lived<br />Flurry data: 72% of games still played after 30 days<br />But only 23% after 60 days, and 16% after 90 days<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  12. 12. 3. Piracy and ip infringement<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  13. 13. Piracy on the App Store<br />$450 million of lost revenues (24/7 Wall St)<br />Based on 75% piracy rate and 1.5bn illegal downloads<br />But also assuming that only 10% of those were ‘lost’ sales<br />Rally Master Pro: 95% first-day piracy rate<br />Tap-Fu: 80% first-week piracy rate<br />Orbital: 80% first-week dropping to 24% later<br />Pirate behaviour and first-day / week spike<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  14. 14. Solutions to Piracy?<br />There is no catch-all solution. Sorry.<br />Turn pirates into paying customers - in-app payments<br />Send takedown requests (i.e. Whack-a-Mole)<br />Ask Apple to do something. But what?<br />Music – part of the solution is providing better-value and more appealing consumer services. With rich games selling for $0.99 on a slick store, though...<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  15. 15. IP infringement<br />Several high-profile examples of IP battles<br />Edge / Edgy / Killer Edge Racing<br />Stoneloops of Jurassica v Luxor<br />MarioTD / Duck Hunt / BreakClassic / Super Pong 2<br />Apple currently playing judge and jury<br />The more high-profile iPhone gaming is, the more lawsuits we can expect to see<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  16. 16. 4. Pricing evolution<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  17. 17. Prices. How low can they go?<br />2008-09: Developer complaints about dive to 99c<br />Late 2009: Concerted efforts to buck the trend<br />EA holding onto its premium prices<br />Canabalt establishing $2.99 success for casual game<br />Social games bundling points up to $99.99<br />Yet price cuts now standard marketing practice<br />‘Peggling’ down to 99c for limited period<br />Will 2010 break the $9.99 price barrier?<br />Leaked Assassin’s Creed 2 at $11.99...<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  18. 18. Top Paid Games chart<br />Avg Price: $2.34<br />11 games at 99c<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  19. 19. Top Grossing Games chart<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br /><ul><li>Avg Price: $4.74
  20. 20. 2 games at 99c
  21. 21. One free game</li></li></ul><li>In-App Payments<br />Eliminate Pro, Skies of Glory, Tap Tap Revenge 3<br />Mixed success<br />TTR3 in Top Grossing chart – has sold 1m songs<br />Eliminate – 500k downloads in a week (but not in TG chart)<br />Skies of Glory?<br />Other (paid game) examples show mixed results too<br />Pocket God – in-app payments 27% of its revenues<br />Freeverse – tens of thousands of Flick Fishing payments<br />Enigmo: 1m install base but only 25 in-app sales a day<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  22. 22. What About Advertising?<br />In-app advertising fuelling big acquisitions<br />Apple/Quattro and Google/AdMob<br />Could developers be caught in the middle of a battle?<br />Exclusive deals – AdMob/Tapulous (Sep-09)<br />Need more success stories from developers<br />Backflip Studios - $125k a month from ads (Nov-09)<br />Separate trend: advergames<br />Reebok iSprint<br />Real Racing GTI<br />Sirocco 24H Challenge<br />Waterslide Extreme<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  23. 23. 5. Promotion & discovery<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  24. 24. Promotion<br />2009: Pubs and devs got savvy about marketing<br />More use of social media in particular<br />Developer-led efforts to collaborate on marketing<br />Appvent Calendar: 100k downloads of Navy Patrol<br />FreeAppaDay just launched with same idea<br />APPvertisemARTs from ustwo<br />Cross-promotion also becoming more important<br />Can tie in with in-app payments (ngmoco / Eliminate)<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  25. 25. Discovery<br />Developers have focused on App Store charts<br />Marketing strategies based on ‘get into the top 100’<br />Apple’s Genius has been low-profile since launch<br />Third-party services filling the gap<br />Chorus / Chomp / Appolicious / Apptizr<br />Mplayit / AppClassics / AppStoreHQ<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  26. 26. 6. Social and connectivity<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  27. 27. Social Games Platforms<br />Fierce competition: OpenFeint, Scoreloop, Plus+, Crystal, AGON Online, GameSpy...<br />Difference emerging: white-label v brand<br />Own-brand iPhone apps for OpenFeint and rivals<br />This space is seeing investment<br />Aug: $2.8m funding for Scoreloop<br />Oct: DeNa invested in Aurora Feint<br />Emerging value as promotional platforms<br />OpenFeint Gold scheme / AGON consumer site<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  28. 28. iPhone + Facebook<br />So far, Facebook/iPhone links have been limited<br />Facebook Connect used mainly for viral buzz<br />Playfish/ Zynga / Playdom not taking App Store by storm<br />Cross-Platform games: Anytime Pool, Who Has The Biggest Brain, Bumper Stars<br />BUT: big iPhone/mobile firms investing in Facebook<br />Glu built a social gaming team in 2009<br />Ngmoco recruited ex MySpace SVP<br />Digital Chocolate’s NanoStars concept<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  29. 29. 7. Publishing shake-up<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  30. 30. New Publishers Coming In<br />Console firms now interested in mobile<br />GTA: Chinatown Wars out this week<br />Activision released Call of Duty: World At War: Zombies<br />Ubisoft self-publishing, rather than licensing to Gameloft<br />Codemasters back in after exiting J2ME market<br />But iPhone isn’t just about the console publishers<br />Developers seeing opportunity to self-publish<br />Social games firms may ramp up in 2010<br />Casual publishers like PopCap already punching their weight<br />Web Flash studios, iTV gaming firms...<br />iPhone is a battleground more than DS and PSP<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  31. 31. iPhone Firms Going Out<br />Games can build buzz on iPhone then extend<br />Fieldrunners went to PSP Minis, then mobile<br />WiiWare, Xbox Live Arcade, Facebook, PC...<br />Other smartphone platforms courting iPhone developers<br />Multiple platforms will be increasingly important<br />Make more money if prices are higher<br />Make more money if competition is less intense<br />Make more money if iPhone game tanks<br />In 2010, we’ll be talking more about cross-platform developers/publishers for whom iPhone is a base<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  32. 32. iPhone v PSP Minis Pricing<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  33. 33. Developers Skilling Up<br />Developers have been self-publishing since the early days of the App Store<br />BUT now they’re becoming publishers too<br />TAG Games and B-Boy Brawl<br />Bulkypix publishing several games<br />2009 – became clear there IS a role for publishers<br />Less about the mechanics of publishing, and more about the marketing<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  34. 34. Who’s Making Money?<br />Source: Top 20 App Store charts, 13-Jan-09<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  35. 35. 8. Apple as platform owner<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  36. 36. App Store Improvements<br />Top Grossing chart to highlight biggest earners<br />Genius for Apps to help discovery<br />Redesigned App Store pages in iTunes<br />More priority to screenshots<br />Only first paragraph of description is shown<br />Harder to find genres?<br />Halved the price of iPod touch software update<br />More transparency in approvals (but enough?)<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  37. 37. But what next?<br />Will Apple publish more first-party games?<br />Recruiting Video Game Artist for ‘interactive multimedia’<br />Previously hired Xbox senior director of strategy<br />Will Apple launch its own social games service?<br />M&A expert on board – could it buy a social platform?<br />Will Apple take more control of in-app ads?<br />$275m Quattro Wireless deal announced in January<br />What now for developers using AdMob units?<br />What will the iSlate mean for gaming?<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  38. 38. 9. Ipod touch’s importance<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  39. 39. iPod Touch For Games<br />“What customers told us was, they started to see it as a games machine...” – Steve Jobs<br />iPod Touch is the real rival to DS and PSP, not iPhone<br />Downloads outstripped iPhone by 172% at Christmas<br />Up by 900% on Christmas Day itself (Flurry)<br />iPod Touch users download 18 apps a month<br /><ul><li>Compared to 10 a month for iPhone (AdMob)</li></ul>Implications: connectivity not a given<br />Nor is latest OS – 32% below 3.0 in December<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  40. 40. iTouch Christmas<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  41. 41. 10. Rise of the not-quite-game<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  42. 42. Not Quite Games, But...<br />Foursquare / Gowalla / MyTown / Rummble<br />Turning real-world social lives into virtual games<br />Attracting significant investment from VCs<br />Foursquare one check-in a second / 450k MyTown users<br />Augmented Reality<br />Layar, Junaio, Sekai Camera, Wikitude<br />What games are possible – and how niche are they?<br />Juniper: $732m by 2014 with games leading the way<br />Multiplayer competitive fitness<br />iSpeedRunner – train but also compare times<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />
  43. 43. CHEERS!<br />This presentation will be available on www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />Contact me: sdredge@gmail.com<br />www.iphonegamesbulletin.com<br />

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