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Stanford CS22A March 8, 2018 AI for a Magnificent Future

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Lecture given in Jerry Kaplan's Stanford CS22A class on the Social and Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence

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Stanford CS22A March 8, 2018 AI for a Magnificent Future

  1. 1. AI for a Magnificent Future Steve Omohundro, Ph.D. PossibilityResearch.com SteveOmohundro.com SelfAwareSystems.com http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html
  2. 2. https://www.venturescanner.com/artificial-intelligence Venture Scanner: 2152 AI Startups $31.2 Billion
  3. 3. https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/27/superintelligent-ai-explains-softbanks-push-to-raise-a-100bn-vision-fund/
  4. 4. http://www.businessinsider.com/softbank-investing-880-billion-vision-fund-2017-10
  5. 5. https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/4/16251226/russia-ai-putin-rule-the-world
  6. 6. https://thenextweb.com/artificial-intelligence/2017/07/20/china-says-itll-world-ai-leader-2025/#
  7. 7. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Human_brain_01.jpg 86 Billion Neurons http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2776484/ http://bio3520.nicerweb.com/Locked/chap/ch03/3_11-neuron.jpg
  8. 8. 1957: Rosenblatt’s “Perceptron” http://www.rutherfordjournal.org/article040101.html “The embryo of an electronic computer that [the Navy] expects will be able to walk, talk, see, write, reproduce itself and be conscious of its existence.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perceptron
  9. 9. 2007: Deep Learning Neural Nets http://www.nicta.com.au/content/uploads/2015/02/deep.jpg
  10. 10. 2012: Deep Learning Successes • 2009 Speech Recognition TIMIT: Cortana, Skype, Google Now, Siri, Baidu, Nuance, etc. • 2012 Image Recognition ImageNet • 2012 Drug Discovery Merck Challenge • 2013 Natural Language Sentiment • 2014 Image Captioning • 2014 Natural Language Translation • 2015 Atari Video Games DeepMind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_learning
  11. 11. 2,700 Google Projects Use Deep Learning! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/why-2015-was-a-breakthrough-year-in-artificial-intelligence
  12. 12. http://cdn-media-1.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2014/07/Cash.jpg McKinsey: AI and Robotics next 10 years $50 Trillion US GDP is $18 Trillion http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
  13. 13. http://thismasquerade.me/wp-content/uploads/blogger/-84ftTg_azwY/Um8up3j4zTI/AAAAAAAABJ8/9_-dxg23UaY/s1600/9979402_ml.jpg AI Knowledge Work: $25 Trillion/10 years Marketing, ERP, Big Data, Smart Assistants
  14. 14. Internet of Things: $15 Trillion/10 years 100 Billion devices by 2025 Cars, Appliances, Cameras, Meters, Wearables, etc. https://www.summitbusiness.net/images/Internet.jpg http://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2014/08/22/internet-of-things-by-the-numbers-market-estimates-and-forecasts/
  15. 15. Robot Manufacturing: $10 Trillion to 2025 Work 24 hours/day No breaks, food, medical Don’t quit, get bored, get depressed Work anywhere Hazards OK Don’t leak secrets Work well with others Easy to replicate http://thisisrealmedia.com/2014/06/19/robotics-and-ethics-the-smart-car-by-ron-parlato/
  16. 16. Foxconn Technology Group • World’s largest contract manufacturer • Assembles 40% of all consumer electronics • iPhone, iPad, Kindle, Xbox, Playstation 4, etc. • 1.3 million employees, $8K salary • Employee suicides • “Foxbot” robots, cost $25K, 2nd generation now • Building 30K robots/year http://www.tomshardware.com/news/foxcponn-apple-iphone-ipad-robot,19088.html
  17. 17. Dec. 2015: Fanuc Deep Learning Robots http://australianroboticsreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fanuc.jpg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/zero-to-expert-in-eight-hours-these-robots-can-learn-for-themselves Deep Learning to Bin Pick in 8 hours
  18. 18. 420 Chinese Robot Companies http://thestack.com/china-robot-market-overstimulated-291014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/china-robots-idUSL3N0RB2WX20141028
  19. 19. Self-Driving Vehicles: $10 Trillion by 2025 Disrupt Dealers, Insurance, Parking, Finance, Trucking, Taxis 10 million jobs http://zackkanter.com/2015/01/23/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-by-2025/ http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/28/5756852/googles-self-driving-car-isnt-a-car-its-the-future
  20. 20. https://osuwmcdigital.osu.edu/sitetool/sites/urologypublic/images/Robotics/robotic_surgery_table.jpg Health Care: $10 Trillion to 2025 Robot surgery, medical records, AI diagnosis
  21. 21. http://airwolf3d.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/3d-printer-v.5.5-airwolf3d1.jpg 3D Printing: $2 Trillion by 2025
  22. 22. US Building construction: $960 billion/yr 5.8 million employees http://www.aisrenovations.com/gallery/Gallery-Photo-1.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Construction
  23. 23. April 2014: Chinese WinSun 3D printed 10 houses, 2100 sq ft, $4800 http://m.newsru.co.il/realty/20jan2015/3d_house_i101.html
  24. 24. WinSun 3D printed 12,000 sq ft villa http://3dprint.com/38144/3d-printed-apartment-building/ US Building construction: $1 Trillion/yr 5.8 million employees
  25. 25. Drones: $98 Billion by 2025 Nov. 2015: Kespry and Nvidia Deep Learning for Drones http://mint-tek.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/commercialdronesforhire.jpg http://www.businessinsider.com/the-market-for-commercial-drones-2014-2 http://www.flybestdrones.com/best-5-drones-with-camera-under-50-dollars/
  26. 26. AI Economy AI Military AI Society Technological Unemployment Increasing Inequality Propaganda and Manipulation Lethal Autonomous Weapons Robot Terrorism Decreased Barriers to War Expanded Governance Expanded Laws Expanded Enforcement http://orig04.deviantart.net/d4fc/f/2016/071/d/e/circuit_board_by_xxaries1970xx-d9ut9nd.jpg
  27. 27. Maslow Hierarchy of Human Needs Self- Actualization Esteem Social Safety Physiological Self-Transcendance https://alchetron.com/Abraham-Maslow-1355192-W 1943
  28. 28. Technological Unemployment? Kai Fu Lee 50% in 10 years Eric Schmidt 0% http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/kai-fu-lee-robots-will-replace-half-of-all-jobs.html http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alphabets-eric-schmidt-takes-a-contrarian-stance-on-the-robot-revolution-2017-05-04
  29. 29. http://cdn0.mommypage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/mall-robot-1.jpg http://cdn0.mommypage.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/mall-robot.jpg http://www.sciencealert.com/a-mall-security-robot-recently-knocked-down-and-ran-over-a-toddler-in-silicon-valley
  30. 30. http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/isis-using-armed-drones
  31. 31. 7 Tesla Autopilot Accidents Summer 2016 https://www.quora.com/Have-there-been-any-Tesla-Motors-autopilot-road-accidents http://s1.cdn.autoevolution.com/images/news/first-tesla-model-s-crash-in-china-is-downright-painful-to-watch-photo-gallery-83839_1.jpg
  32. 32. Pedestrian Chicken https://medium.com/@mitchturck/self-driving-cars-and-sound-cannons-an-indecent-proposal-43ebf99fafc#.m648686fv http://www.siliconvalley.com/business/ci_29114891/driverless-google-car-stopped-traffic-violation-and-story "We jokingly play chicken with them when we're trying to cross the street," he said. "You see one about to make a right turn at a light, and they're obviously trying to decide if we're going to step into the street or not. It's so tempting to sort of step toward the curb, which makes the car stop instantly and wait for you to go, except you don't go. "We're just messing with it," he said, "to see what it'll do.” – Zandr Milewski
  33. 33. https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FZkIk7yjZjE/maxresdefault.jpg https://hunterwalk.com/2016/04/06/amazon-echo- is-magical-its-also-turning-my-kid-into-an-asshole/ https://qz.com/701521/parents-are-worried-the- amazon-echo-is-conditioning-their-kids-to-be-rude/ http://bgr.com/2016/12/30/amazon-alexa-video-funny-kid/ Kids Love Alexa!
  34. 34. https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01/07/tv_anchor_says_alexa_buy_me_a_dollhouse_and_she_does/ Alexa Orders Viral Dollhouses!
  35. 35. Humans “Synthie” Subculture https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6V0xwxWgAA-Q9W.jpg:largehttp://www.tvguide.com/news/humans-amc-preview-william-hurt-gemma-chan/ Kids with Bot Personality?
  36. 36. 2010: Trillion Dollar Flash Crash http://www.nanex.net/20100506/PercDrop1.png Dow Industrials lost 9% in 36 minutes Today: 50% of trades are automated HFT
  37. 37. Offloading Our Knowledge? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/14/upshot/if-americans-can-find-north-korea-on-a-map-theyre-more-likely-to-prefer-diplomacy.html
  38. 38. Deep Learning Neurofeedback VR Porn https://webby-gallery-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/asset/image/entry-asset-10354/3020000000161110.jpg Ultimate Ecstatic Experience? End of the Human Race? Better Than Sex?
  39. 39. http://wisetoast.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/night-watch-rembrandt-wallpaper.jpg Rembrandt
  40. 40. http://datanewsroom.com/the-most-expensive-paintings-in-the-world-in-one-map/ Jackson Pollock
  41. 41. http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html June 2015: Google Deep Dream
  42. 42. https://research.googleblog.com/2016/02/exploring-intersection-of-art-and.html 2016: Deep Learning Style Transfer https://no2147483647.wordpress.com/2015/12/21/deep-learning-for-hackers-with-mxnet-2/
  43. 43. Deep Neural Net CycleGAN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9reHvktowLY&ab_channel=Jun-YanZhu
  44. 44. Faces from Deep GAN Networks https://blog.heuritech.com/2017/04/11/began-state-of-the-art-generation-of-faces-with-generative-adversarial-networks/
  45. 45. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5169263/Algorithm-puts-Gal-Gadots-face-porn-stars-body.html
  46. 46. Adobe Cloak http://digg.com/2017/adobe-project-cloak
  47. 47. https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/25/lyrebird-is-a-voice-mimic-for-the-fake-news-era/
  48. 48. Face2Face https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohmajJTcpNk&ab_channel=MatthiasNiessner
  49. 49. Interest in “Fake News”
  50. 50. https://news.artnet.com/art-world/artificial-intelligence-art-authentication-1156037
  51. 51. Deceivers vs. Fraud Detectors Who wins? Cryptographically secure pseudorandom number generators: Much cheaper to generate random looking bits Than to detect that they aren’t random http://slideplayer.com/slide/8866865/26/images/30/Cryptographic+Hash+Functions+SHA-512+Logic.jpg
  52. 52. http://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~sturm/research/RNNIrishTrad/index.html AI Music Composition?
  53. 53. http://curatedai.com/ Fish fish away you like those long black houses where her branches roll where flowers hang bare water there for gold trees upon heaven about some air before thee an emerald world among water but her shadow there like their bright eye seems near Deep Gimble II is a Recurrent Neural Net, trained on public domain poetry. AI Poetry?
  54. 54. http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-crunchers-who-say-they-helped-donald-trump-to-win/ Social Manipulation?
  55. 55. Maslow Hierarchy Self- Actualization Esteem Social Safety Physiological Self-Transcendance Technological Abundance Elimination of Drudgery Peace Through Smart Contracts Tools for Thriving Human Connection Tools for Creativity Tools for Beauty Networks of Inspiration https://i.imgur.com/nxBWT4A.jpg Tools for Contribution Dystopia Utopia Inequality, Scarcity Technological Unemployment Robot Warfare Cyber-Terrorism Social Disconnection VR Porn Human Obsolescence Addiction Greed Manipulated Meaning
  56. 56. https://futureoflife.org/bai-2017/
  57. 57. https://twitter.com/kcimc/status/664217437840257024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Open Source Toolkits
  58. 58. https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2015/11/tensorflow-smarter-machine-learning-for.html https://www.linkedin.com/company/toobler Google and Microsoft Open Source Toolkits
  59. 59. http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/03/17/digits-devbox/ http://timdettmers.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/gpu-pic.jpg Deep Learning Hardware NVIDIA GPUs AMD GPUs FPGAs Intel ConvNet core Movidius: embedded Mobileye: automotive Orcam: low power vision Qualcomm: mobile Samsung: mobile Teradeep: startup Nervana: startup
  60. 60. Cloud: Oracle, Google, Microsoft, Amazon http://googlecloudplatform.blogspot.com/2015/12/Google-Cloud-Vision-API-changes-the-way-applications-understand-images.html http://www.slideshare.net/Azure4Research/azure-ml-webinarjuly2014 http://www.pyimagesearch.com/2014/10/13/deep-learning-amazon-ec2-gpu-python-nolearn/ https://blogs.oracle.com/cloud-infrastructure/oracle-nvidia-collaborate-cloud-compute-offerings
  61. 61. Serial Bugs Memory Leaks,Dangling Pointers, Conversion Errors http://orig04.deviantart.net/d4fc/f/2016/071/d/e/circuit_board_by_xxaries1970xx-d9ut9nd.jpg Parallel Bugs Security Bugs Hardware Bugs Machine Learning Bugs AI Goal Bugs AI Governance Bugs Collective AI Bugs Deadlocks, Race Conditions Bad Encryption, Buffer Overflow Rowhammer, Drammer, Instruction Cache Leaks Adversarial Examples, Inscrutable Behavior Unintended Consequences, Basic AI Drives Loopholes, Manipulations Crashes, Long Tails, Black Swans
  62. 62. The Three Constraints on AIs • Mathematics • Physics • Cryptography http://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photography-wooden-puzzle-image7733587
  63. 63. The Power of Physics • Seth Lloyd, “Ultimate Physical Limits to Computation” • Margolus-Levitin theorem • Entire visible universe: 10^92 bits of storage 10^122 operations • The whole universe as a quantum computer can’t search 500 bits http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Hubble_view_of_barred_spiral_galaxy_Messier_83.jpg kdlIW5Ljlspn/zV4DIlsw3Kasdjh0kdfuKR4+Q3KofOr83LfLJ8Eidie83ldhgLEe0GlsiwcdO90SknlLsDd http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
  64. 64. The Power of Cryptography Post-Quantum Cryptography Zero-knowledge Proofs Indistinguishability Obfuscation Secure Multi-party computation Bitcoin Blockchain Energy Encryption
  65. 65. Governing Autonomous Systems Internal: Prosocial values External: Laws, Police, Economic Incentives https://www.flickr.com/photos/waltstoneburner/2863583929/
  66. 66. Trusted Infrastructure • Constrained AIs • Trusted computation • Trusted communication • Trusted identity • Privacy and safety monitoring guarantees • Trusted money • Trusted reputation • Trusted voting • Trusted energy flows • Trusted manufacturinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/sanchtv/4192677571/in/photostream/
  67. 67. 2008: Cryptocurrencies • Bitcoin and 511 Altcoins • Decentralized consensus • “Blockchain” ledger prevents double spending • “Bitcoin miners” get paid for adding blocks • “Proof of work” prevents “Sybil” attacks • Current market cap: $166B http://blog.newegg.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/bitcoin-logo-3d.jpg
  68. 68. 2015: Smart Contracts • Ethereum • “Blockchain with a built-in programming language” • “Consensus-based globally executed virtual machine” • Contracts in Turing complete programming language EVM • Summer 2014 presold more than $18 million Ether • “Decentralized Autonomous Organizations” (DAOs) • “TheDAO” disaster – $54M theft http://francebitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Ethereum.png
  69. 69. Smart Contracts and AI AIs enable smart contract: • Perception • Action • Dispute resolution • Design • Constraints Smart contracts constrain Robots and AIs: • AI legal framework • Self-enforcing structures http://www.trbimg.com/img-50fe0287/turbine/ct-biz-0122-baxter1.jpg-20130121/600
  70. 70. The Future Looks Bright! • $50 Trillion of value! • Need governance! • Need new ideas! • Need new methods! • Need AI startups! https://spiritualmusclehead.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/justice.jpg

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