Mining revenue forecasting presentation for mining working group

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Presentation whilst at Ministry of Finance to stakeholders on Mining Working Group

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Mining revenue forecasting presentation for mining working group

  1. 1. STEVE MACEYMoFED
  2. 2. Mining Revenue ForecastingTaskforce: MoFED (EPRU and RTP) NRA (Research) MMMR State House (SPU) Bank of Sierra Leone (Research)
  3. 3. FARI Mining Revenue ModelModel Structure3Project sub-modelsCommoditypricesAggregatedrevenueforecasts andsensitivitiesAfricanMineralsLondon MiningKoiduKimberliteVimetco SMHLSierra RutileProject Data SheetsProvided annually by companies• By mine• By category of revenueSpecific fiscal terms applied to each projectAssumptionsSierra RutileVimetco SMHLLondon MiningAfricanMineralsKoiduKimberliteOtherOtherOutputs& AnalysisEconomicassumptions
  4. 4. Inputs Project economics Mineral price forecasts Fiscal Regime/s
  5. 5. Sensitivities Production, Prices and Costs: 20% fall in production causes 38% drop in revenue. 20% fall in mineral prices causes 29% drop in revenue. 20% increase in costs causes 16% drop in revenue.
  6. 6. Project Data Production profile by year Cost profile by year, broken down into cost breakdown relevant forfiscal calculations Exploration Capital by same categories as depreciation Operating costs Closure and rehabilitation costs Sources Company development plans, feasibility studies, annual reports,websites, media Government must insist on companies providing data6
  7. 7. Mineral Prices Iron Ore Forecasts: World Economic Outlook Company Information Subscription to ‘Platts’
  8. 8. Fiscal Regime Updating the model with relevant fiscal terms Vary between projects Need copies of agreements
  9. 9. Next Steps Company Data Price Assumptions Regular Meetings

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