Bba 2204 fin mgt week 11 capital budget cashflow & risk

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Capital budgeting, Cashflow, Risks

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Bba 2204 fin mgt week 11 capital budget cashflow & risk

  1. 1. BBA 2204 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Capital Budgeting :: Capital Budgeting Cashflows & Risk Cashflows & Risk by Stephen Ong Visiting Fellow, Birmingham City University Business School, UK Visiting Professor, Shenzhen
  2. 2. Today’s Overview
  3. 3. Learning Goals 1.Discuss the three major cash flow components. 2.Discuss relevant cash flows, expansion versus replacement decisions, sunk costs and opportunity costs, and international capital budgeting. 3.Calculate the initial investment associated with a proposed capital expenditure. 4.Discuss the tax implications associated the sale of an old asset. 5.Find the relevant operating cash inflows associated with a proposed capital expenditure. 6.Determine the terminal cash flow associated with a proposed capital expenditure. 11-3
  4. 4. Relevant Cash Flows ∗ To evaluate investment opportunities, financial managers must determine the relevant cash flows—the incremental cash outflow (investment) and resulting subsequent inflows associated with a proposed capital expenditure. ∗ Incremental cash flows are the additional cash flows—outflows or inflows—expected to result from a proposed capital expenditure. 11-4
  5. 5. Focus on Ethics A Question of Accuracy 11-5 ∗ Because estimates of the cash flows from an investment project involve making assumptions about the future, they may be subject to considerable error. ∗ Taken as a whole, mergers and acquisitions in recent years have produced a disheartening negative 12 percent return on investment. ∗ Improvements in valuation techniques can be negated when the process deteriorates into a game of tweaking the numbers to justify a deal the CEO wants to do, regardless of price. ∗ What would your options be when faced with the demands of an imperial CEO who expects you to “make it work”? Brainstorm several options.
  6. 6. Relevant Cash Flows: Major Cash Flow Components The cash flows of any project may include three basic components: 1. Initial investment: the relevant cash outflow for a proposed project at time zero. 2. Operating cash inflows: the incremental after-tax cash inflows resulting from implementation of a project during its life. 3. Terminal cash flow: the after-tax non11-6 operating cash flow occurring in the final year of a project. It is usually attributable to liquidation of the project.
  7. 7. Figure 11.1 Cash Flow Components 11-7
  8. 8. Relevant Cash Flows: Expansion versus Replacement Decisions 11-8 ∗ Developing relevant cash flow estimates is most straightforward in the case of expansion decisions. ∗ In this case, the initial investment, operating cash inflows, and terminal cash flow are merely the after-tax cash outflow and inflows associated with the proposed capital expenditure. ∗ Identifying relevant cash flows for replacement decisions is more complicated, because the firm must identify the incremental cash outflow and inflows that would result from the proposed replacement.
  9. 9. Figure 11.2 Relevant Cash Flows for Replacement Decisions 11-9
  10. 10. Relevant Cash Flows: Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs Sunk costs are cash outlays that have already been made (past outlays) and therefore have no effect on the cash flows relevant to a current decision. ∗ Sunk costs should not be included in a project’s incremental cash flows. Opportunity costs are cash flows that could be realized from the best alternative use of an owned asset. 11-10 ∗ Opportunity costs should be included as cash outflows when one is determining a project’s incremental cash flows.
  11. 11. Relevant Cash Flows: Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs (cont.) Jankow Equipment is considering renewing its drill press X12, which it purchased 3 years earlier for $237,000, by retrofitting it with the computerized control system from an obsolete piece of equipment it owns. The obsolete equipment could be sold today for a high bid of $42,000, but without its computerized control system, it would be worth nothing. 11-11 ∗ The $237,000 cost of drill press X12 is a sunk cost because it represents an earlier cash outlay. ∗ Although Jankow owns the obsolete piece of equipment, the proposed use of its computerized control system represents an opportunity cost of $42,000—the highest price at which it could be sold today.
  12. 12. Relevant Cash Flows: International Capital Budgeting and Long-Term Investments International capital budgeting differs from the domestic version because: 1. Cash outflows and inflows occur in a foreign currency ∗ ∗ Long-term currency risk can be minimized by financing the foreign investment at least partly in the local capital markets. Likewise, the dollar value of short-term, local-currency cash flows can be protected by using special securities and strategies such as futures, forwards, and options market instruments. 1. Foreign investments entail potentially significant political risk ∗ Political risks can be minimized by using both operating and financial strategies. Foreign direct investment—the transfer of capital, managerial, and technical assets to a foreign country—has surged in recent years. 11-12
  13. 13. Matter of Fact FDI in the United States 11-13 ∗ In 2008 the United States was the world’s largest recipient of FDI, receiving more than $325.3 billion in FDI, a 37% increase from the previous year. ∗ The $2.1 trillion worth of FDI in the United States at the end of 2008 is the equivalent of approximately 16 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
  14. 14. Global Focus ∗ Changes May Influence Future Investments in China ∗ Foreign direct investment in China, not including banks, insurance, and securities, amounted to $90 billion in 2009. ∗ China allows three types of foreign investments: 1. a wholly foreign-owned enterprise (WFOE) in which the firm is entirely funded with foreign capital 2. a joint venture in which the foreign partner must provide at least 25 percent of initial capital 3. a representative office (RO), the most common and easily established entity, which cannot perform business activities that directly result in profits ∗ Although China has been actively campaigning for foreign investment, how do you think having a communist government affects its foreign investment? 11-14
  15. 15. Table 11.1 The Basic Format for Determining Initial Investment 11-15
  16. 16. Finding the Initial Investment: Installed Cost of New Asset ∗ The cost of new asset is the net outflow necessary to acquire a new asset. ∗ Installation costs are any added costs that are necessary to place an asset into operation. ∗ The installed cost of new asset is the cost of new asset plus its installation costs; equals the asset’s depreciable value. 11-16
  17. 17. Finding the Initial Investment: AfterTax Proceeds from Sale of Old Asset ∗ The after-tax proceeds from sale of old asset are the difference between the old asset’s sale proceeds and any applicable taxes or tax refunds related to its sale. ∗ The proceeds from sale of old asset are the cash inflows, net of any removal or cleanup costs, resulting from the sale of an existing asset. ∗ The tax on sale of old asset is the tax that depends on the relationship between the old asset’s sale price and book value, and on existing government tax rules. ∗ Book value is the strict accounting value of an asset, calculated by subtracting its accumulated depreciation from its installed cost. 11-17
  18. 18. Finding the Initial Investment: After-Tax Proceeds from Sale of Old Asset (cont.) ∗ Hudson Industries, a small electronics company, 2 years ago acquired a machine tool with an installed cost of $100,000. ∗ Under MACRS for a 5-year recovery period, 20% and 32% of the installed cost would be depreciated in years 1 and 2, respectively. ∗ In other words, 52% (20% + 32%) of the $100,000 cost, or $52,000 (0.52 × $100,000), would represent the accumulated depreciation at the end of year 2. ∗ The book value of Hudson’s asset at the end of year 2 is therefore $100,000 – $52,000 = $48,000. 11-18
  19. 19. Table 11.2 Tax Treatment on Sale of Assets 11-19
  20. 20. Figure 11.3 Taxable Income from Sale of Asset 11-20
  21. 21. Finding the Initial Investment: After-Tax Proceeds from Sale of Old Asset (cont.) ∗ If Hudson sells the old asset for $110,000, it realizes a gain of $62,000 ($110,000 – $48,000). ∗ This gain is made up of two parts—a capital gain and recaptured depreciation, which is the portion of an asset’s sale price that is above book value and below its initial purchase price. 11-21 ∗ The capital gain is $10,000 ($110,000 sale price – $100,000 initial purchase price); recaptured depreciation is $52,000 (the $100,000 initial purchase price – $48,000 book value). ∗ The total gain above book value of $62,000 is taxed as ordinary income at the 40% rate, resulting in taxes of $24,800 (0.40 × $62,000).
  22. 22. Finding the Initial Investment: After-Tax Proceeds from Sale of Old Asset (cont.) ∗If the asset is sold for $48,000, its book value, the firm breaks even. ∗Because no tax results from selling an asset for its book value, there is no tax effect on the initial investment in the new asset. 11-22
  23. 23. Finding the Initial Investment: AfterTax Proceeds from Sale of Old Asset ∗ If Hudson sells the asset for $30,000, it experiences a loss of $18,000 ($48,000 – $30,000). ∗ If this is a depreciable asset used in the business, the firm may use the loss to offset ordinary operating income. ∗ If the asset is not depreciable or is not used in the business, the firm can use the loss only to offset capital gains. ∗ In either case, the loss will save the firm $7,200 (0.40 × $18,000) in taxes. ∗ If current operating earnings or capital gains are not sufficient to offset the loss, the firm may be able to apply these losses to prior or future years’ taxes. 11-23
  24. 24. Finding the Initial Investment: Change in Net Working Capital ∗ Net working capital is the amount by which a firm’s current assets exceed its current liabilities. ∗ The change in net working capital is the difference between a change in current assets and a change in current liabilities. 11-24 ∗ Generally, current assets increase by more than current liabilities, resulting in an increased investment in net working capital. This increased investment is treated as an initial outflow. ∗ If the change in net working capital were negative, it would be shown as an initial inflow.
  25. 25. Table 11.3 Calculation of Net Working Capital for Danson Company 11-25
  26. 26. Finding the Initial Investment: Calculating the Initial Investment Powell Corporation is trying to determine the initial investment required to replace an old machine with a new, more sophisticated model. The proposed machine’s purchase price is $380,000, and an additional $20,000 will be necessary to install it. It will be depreciated under MACRS using a 5-year recovery period. The present (old) machine was purchased 3 years ago at a cost of $240,000 and was being depreciated under MACRS using a 5-year recovery period. The firm has found a buyer willing to pay $280,000 for the present machine and to remove it at the buyer’s expense. The firm expects that a $35,000 increase in current assets and an $18,000 increase in current 11-26
  27. 27. Finding the Initial Investment: Calculating the Initial Investment (cont.) 11-27
  28. 28. Finding the Operating Cash Inflows ∗ Benefits expected to result from proposed capital expenditures must be measured on an after-tax basis, because the firm will not have the use of any benefits until it has satisfied the government’s tax claims. ∗ All benefits expected from a proposed project must be measured on a cash flow basis. 11-28 ∗ Cash inflows represent dollars that can be spent, not merely “accounting profits.” ∗ The basic calculation for converting after-tax net profits into operating cash inflows requires adding depreciation and any other noncash charges (amortization and depletion) deducted as expenses on the firm’s income statement back to net profits after taxes.
  29. 29. Finding the Operating Cash Inflows (cont.) ∗ The final step in estimating the operating cash inflows for a proposed replacement project is to calculate the incremental (relevant) cash inflows. ∗ Incremental operating cash inflows are needed because our concern is only with the change in operating cash inflows that result from the proposed project. 11-29
  30. 30. Table 11.4 Powell Corporation’s Revenue and Expenses for Proposed and Present Machines 11-30
  31. 31. Table 11.5a Depreciation Expense for Proposed and Present Machines for Powell Corporation 11-31
  32. 32. Table 11.5b Depreciation Expense for Proposed and Present Machines for Powell Corporation 11-32
  33. 33. Table 11.6 Calculation of Operating Cash Inflows Using the Income Statement Format 11-33
  34. 34. Table 11.7a Calculation of Operating Cash Inflows for Powell Corporation’s Proposed and Present Machines
  35. 35. Table 11.7b Calculation of Operating Cash Inflows for Powell Corporation’s Proposed and Present Machines 11-35
  36. 36. Table 11.8 Incremental (Relevant) Operating Cash Inflows for Powell Corporation 11-36
  37. 37. Finding the Terminal Cash Flow ∗ Terminal cash flow is the cash flow resulting from termination and liquidation of a project at the end of its economic life. ∗ It represents the after-tax cash flow, exclusive of operating cash inflows, that occurs in the final year of the project. ∗ The proceeds from sale of the new and the old asset, often called “salvage value,” represent the amount net of any removal or cleanup costs expected upon termination of the project. ∗ If the net proceeds from the sale are expected to exceed book value, a tax payment shown as an outflow (deduction from sale proceeds) will occur. ∗ When the net proceeds from the sale are less than book value, a tax 11-37 rebate shown as a cash inflow (addition to sale proceeds) will result.
  38. 38. Finding the Terminal Cash Flow (cont.) ∗ When we calculate the terminal cash flow, the change in net working capital represents the reversion of any initial net working capital investment. ∗ Most often, this will show up as a cash inflow due to the reduction in net working capital; with termination of the project, the need for the increased net working capital investment is assumed to end. 11-38
  39. 39. Finding the Terminal Cash Flow (cont.) Powell Corporation expects to be able to liquidate the new machine at the end of its 5year usable life to net $50,000 after paying removal and cleanup costs. The old machine can be liquidated at the end of the 5 years to net $10,000. The firm expects to recover its $17,000 net working capital investment upon termination of the project. The firm pays taxes at a rate of 40%. 11-39
  40. 40. Finding the Terminal Cash Flow (cont.) 11-40
  41. 41. Table 11.9 The Basic Format for Determining Terminal Cash Flow 11-41
  42. 42. Summarizing the Relevant Cash Flows ∗ The initial investment, operating cash inflows, and terminal cash flow together represent a project’s relevant cash flows. ∗ These cash flows can be viewed as the incremental after-tax cash flows attributable to the proposed project. ∗ They represent, in a cash flow sense, how much better or worse off the firm will be if it chooses to implement the proposal. 11-42
  43. 43. Summarizing the Relevant Cash Flows (cont.) Time line for Powell Corporation’s relevant cash flows with the proposed machine 11-43
  44. 44. Personal Finance Example Tina Talor is contemplating the purchase of a new car. Tina’s cash flow estimates for the car purchase are as follows. ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ Negotiated price of new car Taxes and fees on new car purchase Proceeds from trade-in of old car Estimated value of new car in 3 years Estimated value of old car in 3 years Estimated annual repair costs on new car warranty) ∗ Estimated annual repair costs on old car $400 11-44 $23,500 $1,650 $9,750 $10,500 $5,700 0 (in
  45. 45. Personal Finance Example (cont.) 11-45
  46. 46. Personal Finance Example (cont.) 11-46
  47. 47. Review of Learning Goals ∗ 11-47 Discuss the three major cash flow components. ∗ The three major cash flow components of any project can include: (1) an initial investment, (2) operating cash inflows, and (3) terminal cash flow. The initial investment occurs at time zero, the operating cash inflows occur during the project life, and the terminal cash flow occurs at the end of the project.
  48. 48. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ 11-48 Discuss relevant cash flows, expansion versus replacement decisions, sunk costs and opportunity costs, and international capital budgeting. ∗ The relevant cash flows for capital budgeting decisions are the initial investment, the operating cash inflows, and the terminal cash flow. For replacement decisions, these flows are the difference between the cash flows of the new asset and the old asset. Expansion decisions are viewed as replacement decisions in which all cash flows from the old asset are zero. When estimating relevant cash flows, ignore sunk costs and include opportunity costs as cash outflows. In international capital budgeting, currency risks and political risks can be minimized through careful planning.
  49. 49. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ Calculate the initial investment associated with a proposed capital expenditure. ∗ The initial investment is the initial outflow required, taking into account the installed cost of the new asset, the after-tax proceeds from the sale of the old asset, and any change in net working capital. The initial investment is reduced by finding the after-tax proceeds from sale of the old asset. The book value of an asset is used to determine the taxes owed as a result of its sale. The change in net working capital is the difference between the change in current assets and the change in current liabilities expected to accompany a given capital expenditure. 11-49
  50. 50. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ Discuss the tax implications associated the sale of an old asset. ∗ There is typically a tax implication from the sale of an old asset. The tax implication depends on the relationship between its sale price and book value, and on existing government tax rules. Generally, if the old asset is sold for an amount greater than its book value then the difference is subject to a capital gains tax and if the old asset is sold for an amount less than its book value then the company is entitled to tax deduction equal to the difference. 11-50
  51. 51. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ Find the relevant operating cash inflows associated with a proposed capital expenditure. ∗ The operating cash inflows are the incremental after-tax cash inflows expected to result from a project. The income statement format involves adding depreciation back to net operating profit after taxes and gives the operating cash inflows, which are the same as operating cash flows (OCF), associated with the proposed and present projects. The relevant (incremental) cash inflows for a replacement project are the difference between the operating cash inflows of the proposed project and those of the present project. 11-51
  52. 52. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ 11-52 Determine the terminal cash flow associated with a proposed capital expenditure. ∗ The terminal cash flow represents the aftertax cash flow (exclusive of operating cash inflows) that is expected from liquidation of a project. It is calculated for replacement projects by finding the difference between the after-tax proceeds from sale of the new and the old asset at termination and then adjusting this difference for any change in net working capital.
  53. 53. Risk and Refinements in Capital Budgeting 1.Understand the importance of recognizing risk in the analysis of capital budgeting projects. 2.Discuss risk and cash inflows, scenario analysis, and simulation as behavioral approaches for dealing with risk. 3.Review the unique risks that multinational companies face. 4.Describe the determination and use of risk-adjusted discount rates (RADRs), portfolio effects, and the practical aspects of RADRs. 5.Select the best of a group of unequal-lived, mutually exclusive projects using annualized net present values (ANPVs). 6.Explain the role of real options and the objective and procedures for selecting projects under capital rationing. 12-53
  54. 54. Introduction to Risk in Capital Budgeting ∗ Thus far, we have assumed that all investment projects have the same level of risk as the firm. ∗ In other words, we assumed that all projects are equally risky, and the acceptance of any project would not change the firm’s overall risk. ∗ In actuality, these situations are rare—projects are not equally risky, and the acceptance of a project can affect the firm’s overall risk. 12-54
  55. 55. Table 12.1 Cash Flows and NPVs for Bennett Company’s Projects 12-55
  56. 56. Behavioural Approaches for Dealing with Risk: Risk and Cash Inflows ∗ Behavioural approaches can be used to get a “feel” for the level of project risk, whereas other approaches try to quantify and measure project risk. ∗ Risk (in capital budgeting) refers to the uncertainty surrounding the cash flows that a project will generate or, more formally, the degree of variability of cash flows. ∗ In many projects, risk stems almost entirely from the cash flows that a project will generate several years in the future, because the initial investment is generally known with relative certainty. 12-56
  57. 57. Behavioural Approaches for Dealing with Risk: Risk and Cash Inflows (cont.) Treadwell Tire Company, a tire retailer with a 10% cost of capital, is considering investing in either of two mutually exclusive projects, A and B. Each requires a $10,000 initial investment, and both are expected to provide constant annual cash inflows over their 15-year lives. For either project to be acceptable its NPV must be greater than zero. 12-57
  58. 58. Behavioural Approaches for Dealing with Risk: Risk and Cash Inflows (cont.) 12-58
  59. 59. Behavioural Approaches for Dealing with Risk: Scenario Analysis ∗ Scenario analysis is a behavioural approach that uses several possible alternative outcomes (scenarios), to obtain a sense of the variability of returns, measured here by NPV. ∗ In capital budgeting, one of the most common scenario approaches is to estimate the NPVs associated with pessimistic (worst), most likely (expected), and optimistic (best) estimates of cash inflow. ∗ The range can be determined by subtracting the pessimistic-outcome NPV from the optimisticoutcome NPV. 12-59
  60. 60. Table 12.2 Scenario Analysis of Treadwell’s Projects A and B 12-60
  61. 61. Behavioural Approaches for Dealing with Risk: Simulation Simulation is a statistics-based behavioral approach that applies predetermined probability distributions and random numbers to estimate risky outcomes. 12-61
  62. 62. Figure 12.1 NPV Simulation 12-62
  63. 63. Focus on Practice The Monte Carlo Method: The Forecast Is for Less Uncertainty 12-63 ∗ To combat uncertainty in the decision-making process, some companies use a Monte Carlo simulation program to model possible outcomes. ∗ A Monte Carlo simulation program randomly generates values for uncertain variables over and over to simulate a model. ∗ The simulation then requires project practitioners to develop low, high, and most likely cost estimates along with correlation coefficients. ∗ One of the problems with using a Monte Carlo program is the difficulty of establishing the correct input ranges for the variables and determining the correlation coefficients for those variables. ∗ A Monte Carlo simulation program requires the user to first build an Excel spreadsheet model that captures the input variables for the proposed project. What issues and what benefits can the user derive from this process?
  64. 64. International Risk Considerations ∗ Exchange rate risk is the danger that an unexpected change in the exchange rate between the dollar and the currency in which a project’s cash flows are denominated will reduce the market value of that project’s cash flow. ∗ In the short term, much of this risk can be hedged by using financial instruments such as foreign currency futures and options. ∗ Long-term exchange rate risk can best be minimized by financing the project in whole or in part in the local currency. 12-64
  65. 65. Matter of Fact A 2001 survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) found that more than 40% of the CFOs felt that it was important to adjust an investment project’s cash flows or discount rates to account for foreign exchange risk. 12-65
  66. 66. International Risk Considerations (cont.) ∗ Political risk is much harder to protect against. Firms that make investments abroad may find that the hostcountry government can limit the firm’s ability to return profits back home. Governments can seize the firm’s assets, or otherwise interfere with a project’s operation. ∗ The difficulties of managing political risk after the fact make it even more important that managers account for political risks before making an investment. ∗ They can do so either by adjusting a project’s expected cash inflows to account for the probability of political interference or by using risk-adjusted discount rates in capital budgeting formulas. 12-66
  67. 67. International Risk Considerations (cont.) Other special issues relevant for international capital budgeting include: 12-67 ∗ Taxes ∗ Transfer pricing ∗ Strategic, rather than financial, considerations
  68. 68. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates Risk-adjusted discount rates (RADR) are rates of return that must be earned on a given project to compensate the firm’s owners adequately—that is, to maintain or improve the firm’s share price. 12-68
  69. 69. Personal Finance Example Talor Namtig is considering investing $1,000 in either of two stocks—A or B. She plans to hold the stock for exactly 5 years and expects both stocks to pay $80 in annual end-of-year cash dividends. At the end of the year 5 she estimates that stock A can be sold to net $1,200 and stock B can be sold to net $1,500. Her research indicates that she should earn an annual return on an average risk stock of 11%. Because stock B is considerably riskier, she will require a 14% return from it. Talor makes the following calculations to find the risk-adjusted net present values (NPVs) for the two stocks: 12-69
  70. 70. Personal Finance Example (cont.) Although Talor’s calculations indicate that both stock investments are acceptable (NPVs > $0), on a risk-adjusted basis, she should invest in Stock B because it has a higher 12-70
  71. 71. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Review of CAPM Using beta, bj, to measure the relevant risk of any asset j, the CAPM is rj = RF + [bj × (rm – RF)] where 12-71 rj = required return on asset j RF = risk-free rate of return bj = beta coefficient for asset j rm = return on the market portfolio of assets
  72. 72. Figure 12.2 CAPM and SML 12-72
  73. 73. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Using CAPM to Find RADRs (cont.) Figure 12.2 shows two projects, L and R. ∗ Project L has a beta, bL, and generates an internal rate of return, IRRL. The required return for a project with risk bL is rL. ∗ Because project L generates a return greater than that required (IRRL > rL), project L is acceptable. ∗ Project L will have a positive NPV when its cash inflows are discounted at its required return, rL. ∗ Project R, on the other hand, generates an IRR below that required for its risk, bR (IRRR < rR). 12-73 ∗ This project will have a negative NPV when its cash inflows are discounted at its required return, rR. ∗
  74. 74. Focus on Ethics Ethics and the Cost of Capital 12-74 ∗ On April 20, 2010 the Deepwater Horizon, an offshore drilling rig operated by Transocean Ltd. on behalf of BP, exploded and eventually sank in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 people. ∗ To make matters worse, oil began spewing into the Gulf. ∗ By June 2010, BP’s stock price was 50% below pre-crisis levels and the company’s bonds traded at levels comparable to junk rated companies. ∗ Is the ultimate goal of the firm, to maximize the wealth of the owners for whom the firm is being operated, ethical? ∗ Why might ethical companies benefit from a lower cost of capital than less ethical companies?
  75. 75. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Applying RADRs Bennett Company wishes to apply the RiskAdjusted Discount Rate (RADR) approach to determine whether to implement Project A or B. In addition to the data presented earlier, Bennett’s management assigned a “risk index” of 1.6 to project A and 1.0 to project B as indicated in the following table. The required rates of return associated with these indexes are then applied as the discount rates to the two projects to determine NPV. 12-75
  76. 76. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Applying RADRs (cont.) 12-76
  77. 77. Figure 12.3a Calculation of NPVs for Bennett Company’s Capital Expenditure Alternatives Using RADRs 12-77
  78. 78. Figure 12.3b Calculation of NPVs for Bennett Company’s Capital Expenditure Alternatives Using RADRs 12-78
  79. 79. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Applying RADRs (cont.) Project A 12-79 Project B
  80. 80. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Applying RADRs (cont.) 12-80
  81. 81. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Portfolio Effects ∗ As noted earlier, individual investors must hold diversified portfolios because they are not rewarded for assuming diversifiable risk. ∗ Because business firms can be viewed as portfolios of assets, it would seem that it is also important that they too hold diversified portfolios. ∗ Surprisingly, however, empirical evidence suggests that firm value is not affected by diversification. ∗ In other words, diversification is not normally rewarded and therefore is generally not necessary. 12-81
  82. 82. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: Portfolio Effects (cont.) 12-82 ∗ It turns out that firms are not rewarded for diversification because investors can do so themselves. ∗ An investor can diversify more readily, easily, and costlessly simply by holding portfolios of stocks.
  83. 83. Table 12.3 Bennett Company’s Risk Classes and RADRs 12-83
  84. 84. Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates: RADRs in Practice (cont.) Assume that the management of Bennett Company decided to use risk classes to analyze projects and so placed each project in one of four risk classes according to its perceived risk. The classes ranged from I for the lowest-risk projects to IV for the highest-risk projects. The financial manager of Bennett has assigned project A to class III and project B to class II. The cash flows for project A would be evaluated using a 14% RADR, and project B’s would be evaluated using a 10% RADR. The NPV of project A at 14% was calculated in Figure 12.3 to be $6,063, and the NPV for project B at a 10% RADR was shown in Table 12.1 to be $10,924. 12-84
  85. 85. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives ∗ The financial manager must often select the best of a group of unequal-lived projects. ∗ If the projects are independent, the length of the project lives is not critical. ∗ But when unequal-lived projects are mutually exclusive, the impact of differing lives must be considered because the projects do not provide service over comparable time periods. 12-85
  86. 86. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) The AT Company, a regional cable-TV firm, is evaluating two projects, X and Y. The projects’ cash flows and resulting NPVs at a cost of capital of 10% is given below. 12-86
  87. 87. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) Project X 12-87 Project Y
  88. 88. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) 12-88
  89. 89. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) Ignoring the difference in their useful lives, both projects are acceptable (have positive NPVs). Furthermore, if the projects were mutually exclusive, project Y would be preferred over project X. However, it is important to recognize that at the end of its 3 year life, project Y must be replaced, or renewed. 12-89
  90. 90. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) The annualized net present value (ANPV) approach is an approach to evaluating unequal-lived projects that converts the net present value of unequal-lived, mutually exclusive projects into an equivalent annual amount (in NPV terms). Step 1 Calculate the net present value of each project j, NPVj, over its life, nj, using the appropriate cost of capital, r. Step 2 Convert the NPVj into an annuity having life nj. That is, find an annuity that has the same life and the same NPV as the project. Step 3 Select the project that has the highest ANPV. 12-90
  91. 91. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) By using the AT Company data presented earlier for projects X and Y, we can apply the three-step ANPV approach as follows: Step 1 The net present values of projects X and Y discounted at 10%—as calculated in the preceding example for a single purchase of each asset—are NPVX = $11,277.24 (table value = $11,248) NPVY = $19,013.27 (table value = $18,985) 12-91
  92. 92. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) 12-92 Step 2 In this step, we want to convert the NPVs from Step 1 into annuities. For project X, we are trying to find the answer to the question, what 3-year annuity (equal to the life of project X) has a present value of $11,248 (the NPV of project X)? Likewise, for project Y we want to know what 6-year annuity has a present value of $18,985. Once we have these values, we can determine which project, X or Y, delivers a higher annual cash flow on a present value basis.
  93. 93. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) Project X 12-93 Project Y
  94. 94. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) 12-94
  95. 95. Capital Budgeting Refinements: Comparing Projects With Unequal Lives (cont.) Step 3 Reviewing the ANPVs calculated in Step 2, we can see that project X would be preferred over project Y. Given that projects X and Y are mutually exclusive, project X would be the recommended project because it provides the higher annualized net present value. 12-95
  96. 96. Recognizing Real Options Real options are opportunities that are embedded in capital projects that enable managers to alter their cash flows and risk in a way that affects project acceptability (NPV). ∗ Also called strategic options. By explicitly recognizing these options when making capital budgeting decisions, managers can make improved, more strategic decisions that consider in advance the economic impact of certain contingent actions on project cash flow and risk. NPVstrategic = NPVtraditional + Value of real options 12-96
  97. 97. Table 12.4 Major Types of Real Options 12-97
  98. 98. Recognizing Real Options (cont.) Assume that a strategic analysis of Bennett Company’s projects A and B finds no real options embedded in Project A but two real options embedded in B: 12-98 1. During it’s first two years, B would have downtime that results in unused production capacity that could be used to perform contract manufacturing; 2. Project B’s computerized control system could control two other machines, thereby reducing labor costs.
  99. 99. Recognizing Real Options (cont.) Bennett’s management estimated the NPV of the contract manufacturing over the two years following implementation of project B to be $1,500 and the NPV of the computer control sharing to be $2,000. Management felt there was a 60% chance that the contract manufacturing option would be exercised and only a 30% chance that the computer control sharing option would be exercised. The combined value of these two real options would be the sum of their expected values. Value of real options for project B = (0.60 × $1,500) + (0.30 × $2,000) = $900 + $600 = $1,500 12-99
  100. 100. Recognizing Real Options (cont.) Adding the $1,500 real options value to the traditional NPV of $10,924 for project B, we get the strategic NPV for project B. NPVstrategic = $10,924 + $1,500 = $12,424 Bennett Company’s project B therefore has a strategic NPV of $12,424, which is above its traditional NPV and now exceeds project A’s NPV of $11,071. Clearly, recognition of project B’s real options improved its NPV (from $10,924 to $12,424) and causes it to be preferred over project A (NPV of $12,424 for B > NPV of $11,071 for A), which has no real options embedded in it. 12-100
  101. 101. Capital Rationing ∗ Firm’s often operate under conditions of capital rationing—they have more acceptable independent projects than they can fund. ∗ In theory, capital rationing should not exist— firms should accept all projects that have positive NPVs. ∗ However, in practice, most firms operate under capital rationing. ∗ Generally, firms attempt to isolate and select the best acceptable projects subject to a capital expenditure budget set by management. 12-101
  102. 102. Capital Rationing (cont.) ∗ The internal rate of return approach is an approach to capital rationing that involves graphing project IRRs in descending order against the total dollar investment to determine the group of acceptable projects. ∗ The graph that plots project IRRs in descending order against the total dollar investment is called the investment opportunities schedule (IOS). ∗ The problem with this technique is that it does not guarantee the maximum dollar return to the firm. 12-102
  103. 103. Capital Rationing (cont.) Tate Company, a fast growing plastics company with a cost of capital of 10%, is confronted with six projects competing for its fixed budget of $250,000. 12-103
  104. 104. Figure 12.4 Investment Opportunities Schedule 12-104
  105. 105. Capital Rationing (cont.) ∗ The net present value approach is an approach to capital rationing that is based on the use of present values to determine the group of projects that will maximize owners’ wealth. ∗ It is implemented by ranking projects on the basis of IRRs and then evaluating the present value of the benefits from each potential project to determine the combination of projects with the highest overall present value. 12-105
  106. 106. Table 12.5 Rankings for Tate Company Projects 12-106
  107. 107. Review of Learning Goals ∗ Understand the importance recognizing risk in the analysis capital budgeting projects. of of ∗ The cash flows associated with capital budgeting projects typically have different levels of risk, and the acceptance of a project generally affects the firm’s overall risk. Thus it is important to incorporate risk considerations in capital budgeting. 12-107
  108. 108. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ Discuss risk and cash inflows, scenario analysis, and simulation as behavioral approaches for dealing with risk. ∗ Risk in capital budgeting is the degree of variability of cash flows, which for conventional capital budgeting projects stems almost entirely from net cash flows. Finding the breakeven cash inflow and estimating the probability that it will be realized make up one behavioral approach for assessing capital budgeting risk. Scenario analysis is another behavioral approach for capturing the variability of cash inflows and NPVs. Simulation is a statistically based approach that results in a probability distribution of project returns. 12-108
  109. 109. ∗ 12-109 Review of Learning Goals (cont.) Review the unique risks that multinational companies face. ∗ Although the basic capital budgeting techniques are the same for multinational and purely domestic companies, firms that operate in several countries must also deal with exchange rate and political risks, tax law differences, transfer pricing, and strategic issues.
  110. 110. ∗ 12-110 Review of Learning Goals (cont.) Describe the determination and use of riskadjusted discount rates (RADRs), portfolio effects, and the practical aspects of RADRs. ∗ The risk of a project whose initial investment is known with certainty is embodied in the present value of its cash inflows, using NPV. Two opportunities to adjust the present value of cash inflows for risk exist—adjust the cash inflows or adjust the discount rate. Because adjusting the cash inflows is highly subjective, adjusting discount rates is more popular. RADRs use a market-based adjustment of the discount rate to calculate NPV.
  111. 111. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ Select the best of a group of unequallived, mutually exclusive projects using annualized net present values (ANPVs). ∗ The ANPV approach is the most efficient method of comparing ongoing, mutually exclusive projects that have unequal usable lives. It converts the NPV of each unequal-lived project into an equivalent annual amount—its ANPV. 12-111
  112. 112. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) ∗ Explain the role of real options and the objective and procedures for selecting projects under capital rationing. ∗ Real options are opportunities that are embedded in capital projects and that allow managers to alter their cash flow and risk in a way that affects project acceptability (NPV). By explicitly recognizing real options, the financial manager can find a project’s strategic NPV. ∗ Capital rationing exists when firms have more acceptable independent projects than they can fund. The two basic approaches for choosing projects under capital rationing are the internal rate of return approach and the net present value approach. The NPV approach better achieves the objective of using the budget to generate the highest present value of inflows. 12-112
  113. 113. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company Lasting Impressions (LI) Company’s general manager has proposed the purchase of one of two large, six-colour presses designed for long, high-quality runs. The purchase of a new press would enable LI to reduce its cost of labour and therefore the price to the client, putting the firm in a more competitive position. The key financial characteristics of the old press and of the two proposed presses are summarized in what follows. 12-113
  114. 114. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company (cont.) Press A This highly automated press can be purchased for $830,000 and will require $40,000 in installation costs. It will be depreciated under MACRS using a 5-year recovery period. At the end of the 5 years, the machine could be sold to net $400,000 before taxes. If this machine is acquired, it is anticipated that the following current account changes would result: 12-114 ∗ Cash: +$25,400 ∗ Accounts receivable: +$120,000 ∗ Inventories: – $20,000 ∗ Accounts payable: +$35,000
  115. 115. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company (cont.) Press B This press is not as sophisticated as press A. It costs $640,000 and requires $20,000 in installation costs. It will be depreciated under MACRS using a 5-year recovery period. At the end of 5 years, it can be sold to net $330,000 before taxes. Acquisition of this press will have no effect on the firm’s net working capital investment. 12-115
  116. 116. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company (cont.) The firm estimates that its earnings before depreciation, interest, and taxes with the old press and with press A or press B for each of the 5 years would be as shown in Table 1. The firm is subject to a 40% tax rate. The firm ’s cost of capital, r, applicable to the proposed replacement is 14%. 12-116
  117. 117. Table 1. Earnings Before Depreciation, Interest, and Taxes for Lasting Impressions Company’s Presses 12-117
  118. 118. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company (cont.) a. For each of the two proposed replacement presses, determine: 1. Initial investment. 2. Operating cash inflows. (Note: Be sure to consider the depreciation in year 6.) 3. Terminal cash flow. (Note: This is at the end of year 5.) b. Using the data developed in part a, find and depict on a time line the relevant cash flow stream associated with each of the two proposed replacement presses, assuming that each is terminated at the end of 5 years. 12-118
  119. 119. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company (cont.) c. Using the data developed in part b, apply each of the following decision techniques: 1. Payback period. (Note: For year 5, use only the operating cash inflows—that is, exclude terminal cash flow—when making this calculation.) 2. Net present value (NPV). 3. Internal rate of return (IRR). c. Draw net present value profiles for the two replacement presses on the same set of axes, and discuss conflicting rankings of the two presses, if any, resulting from use of NPV and IRR decision techniques. 12-119
  120. 120. Integrative Case: Lasting Impressions Company (cont.) e. Recommend which, if either, of the presses the firm should acquire if the firm has (1) unlimited funds or (2) capital rationing. f. What is the impact on your recommendation of the fact that the operating cash inflows associated with press A are characterized as very risky in contrast to the low-risk operating cash inflows of press B? 12-120
  121. 121. Further Reading ∗ Gitman, Lawrence J. and Zutter ,Chad J.(2013) Principles of Managerial Finance, Pearson,13th Edition ∗ Brooks,Raymond (2013) Financial Management: Core Concepts , Pearson, 2th edition 1 - 121
  122. 122. Questions?

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