Next Generation Networks: What does the future hold?

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Discusses next generation telecom networks and the regulatory environment that they will operate under

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Next Generation Networks: What does the future hold?

  1. 1. IIC: Next Generation Networks – what does the future hold? Brian Williamson 24-25 June 2008, Madrid, Spain
  2. 2. Sources of value from NGA Williamson and Marks. June 2008. “A framework for evaluating the value of next generation broadband.” A report for the Broadband Stakeholder Group. http://www.plumconsulting.co.uk/ “ Creative destruction is the essential fact about capitalism” Joseph Schumpeter
  3. 3. Value from “creative destruction” 3 access networks plus NGN cores 1.5 access networks plus NGN cores “ Long tail” mobile Networks “ Short tail” mobile networks <ul><li>Broadcast network </li></ul><ul><li>terrestrial, cable, </li></ul><ul><li>satellite </li></ul>Copper network Deeper fibre access network Policy enablers for transformation Telecoms & broadcasting USO technology neutral Copper “switch off” - enabling policy environment Disintermediation New relationships UHF spectrum pricing and/or trading Anchor product regulation & equivalence Price flexibility, ownership & contracting freedom New services Resources Rationalisation Platform centric services and content Services on all platforms, over internet “ The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping the old ones” John Maynard Keynes
  4. 4. Price control will not lead to efficient investment <ul><li>Wide range of investment options – technology and timing </li></ul><ul><li>Value needs to be reflected in the decision </li></ul>Source: http://www.london.edu/assets/documents/PDF/LBS_functional_separation_investment_decisions_September_2007.pdf Need price flexibility, or very good central planning
  5. 5. Copper switch off would lower costs Williamson and Marks. June 2008. “A framework for evaluating the value of next generation broadband.” A report for the Broadband Stakeholder Group. http://www.plumconsulting.co.uk/ Network element unbundling may make platform innovation harder
  6. 6. “ Anchor product” regulation Price Bandwidth offers over fibre Regulated “anchor product” Emulation of service over copper Non “anchor product” No price regulation “ Equivalence” only Non “anchor product” No price regulation “ Equivalence” only Brian Williamson. July 2007. “New regulatory approaches to next generation access” http://www.broadbanduk.org/component/option,com_docman/task,doc_download/gid,944/Itemid,9/ “ Anchor product” regulation balances flexibility and protection
  7. 7. Challenges to realising benefits <ul><li>Exercise efficient investment options </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Price flexibility </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Value chain restructuring </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Long term relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ownership </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Contracts </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>New competitive model </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Active bitstream product </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Network element unbundling infeasible or unattractive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Copper switch off </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power from premise for service continuity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Entrenched interests </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broadcasting switchover </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Platform neutral policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UHF spectrum trading </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Short tail wireless network </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dense “base station” network </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fibre everywhere </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transformation of IT, video etc </li></ul>Some transformations may require process analogous to broadcast “digital switchover” involving industry, government and regulator

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