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North and South Dakota and Minnesota workshops on the Library in 2020.

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  1. 1. Leah Krevit Rice University The Rest of Us Stephen Abram, MLS, Gale Cengage Learning Minnesota/ North Dakota / South Dakota Libraries Oct. 19-20, 2010 Catching the Vision: The Library in 2020
  2. 2. Thank you for inviting me! I want to share : Major upcoming trends and challenges in Technology, Communities and Librarians Special Surveys of Library Use New National Data on Database Use And I want to meet you.
  3. 3. GOOG
  4. 4. 6 Things have Changed . . . A LOT! <ul><li>Cardholders, Users, Members, Patrons, Clients, Customers, Learners, Students, Teachers, Professors </li></ul><ul><li>Books </li></ul><ul><li>Media </li></ul><ul><li>Mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Collections </li></ul><ul><li>Libraries </li></ul>The History of Unintended Consequences & Unpredictability
  5. 5. “ The Internet has now progressed to its infancy”
  6. 9. How can I lead my library and my community or institution to be ready for the next 10 years?
  7. 10. People
  8. 12. A 1965 iPhone
  9. 13. Can libraries keep up with change? Can you recall buying a 45? Can you recall dials on TVs? Can you recall dialling?
  10. 14. What We Never Really Knew Before (US/Canada) <ul><li>27% of our users are under 18. </li></ul><ul><li>59% are female. </li></ul><ul><li>29% are college students. </li></ul><ul><li>5% are professors and 6% are teachers. </li></ul><ul><li>On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the very first time ! </li></ul><ul><li>Only 29% found the databases via the library website. </li></ul><ul><li>59% found what they were looking for on their first search. </li></ul><ul><li>72% trusted our content more than what they found on Google. </li></ul><ul><li>But, 81% still use Google. </li></ul>We often believe a lot that isn’t true.
  11. 15. People are Changing <ul><li>Demographic– south, Millennial, Boomer,+ </li></ul><ul><li>IQ Increases </li></ul><ul><li>Increased educational attainment & engagement </li></ul><ul><li>eBooks outsell hard cover books, and will outsell paperbacks soon (2011) </li></ul><ul><li>Some libraries are crediting most cardholder growth to e-book accessibility </li></ul><ul><li>eBooks usage is largely middle-aged. </li></ul><ul><li>Some sectors are slyly very tech-dominated (farming, cattle, trucking, natural resources…) </li></ul>
  12. 16. People Have Changed <ul><li>Twitter & Facebook are dominated by the middle aged </li></ul><ul><li>Gaming too. . . Mothers in their 30’s </li></ul><ul><li>Social networks fastest growing populations are seniors and will be more international and less urban and English. </li></ul><ul><li>Personal device proliferation </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile data usage is growing beyond youth very quickly, workplace use is huge </li></ul>
  13. 17. Have Students Changed?
  14. 19. Me
  15. 20. My son: Zachary
  16. 21. My daughter: Sydney
  17. 29. NextGen Differences Increase in IQ - 15-20 Points Brain & Developmental Changes Eye Movement Changes Massive Behavioural Changes Major Decline in Crime Rates – 65%+ But still a 70% behavior overlap with Boomers (see my book chapter)
  18. 30. Discovery & Ideas
  19. 31. Has the future changed? Has our future changed?
  20. 33. COWS, etc.
  21. 39. Diabetes Online Yes, Stephen did just say Lizard Spit
  22. 40. The Future Discovered <ul><li>Stem Cells </li></ul><ul><li>fMRI and The Brain </li></ul><ul><li>Cloning </li></ul><ul><li>Trucking and GPS </li></ul><ul><li>Wind and other energy </li></ul><ul><li>Nanotechnology </li></ul><ul><li>Robotics </li></ul><ul><li>Massive Book Digitization </li></ul><ul><li>Music </li></ul><ul><li>Translation </li></ul><ul><li>Streaming Media </li></ul><ul><li>Seed Bank </li></ul>Inter-disciplinary Cross-disciplinary Integrated 2020
  23. 41. Books
  24. 42. Pay Real Attention To Google Editions & Google Settlement Amazon Gutenberg Etc.
  25. 43. Is Our Focus On Books And Public Image Limiting Our Future Success?
  26. 44. A window of opportunity
  27. 49. Do we really care about containers? Stone – Wax – Scrolls – Books – Next... Paper -- Schmpaper Digital – Schmidgital Holograph . . . Pffft! Transmogrifying Containers
  28. 50. Will Libraries be Device Agnostic? iPads, Kobos, Kindles, Nooks, eDGe, and Mobile Phones?
  29. 51. Borders Kobo, B&N Nook, Amazon Kindle, Apple iPad, Sony, etc. . . .
  30. 54. Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance <ul><li>eBooks and Books </li></ul><ul><li>Concept of place </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy </li></ul><ul><li>Colour & Animation </li></ul><ul><li>Chapters and Paragraph (anthologies, poems, short stories) </li></ul><ul><li>Video </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Pedagogy </li></ul><ul><li>Boundarylessness </li></ul><ul><li>Connect to the author or team </li></ul><ul><li>Added features and commentary </li></ul><ul><li>Connect to book clubs, discussions, etc. </li></ul>2020
  31. 55. Media
  32. 57. The Move to Streaming <ul><li>Like wax, vinyl and tape before it CD and DVD will decline to very small niche markets </li></ul><ul><li>Blockbuster’s bankruptcy and the decline of local independent rental stores is a canary in the mine </li></ul><ul><li>Many PL’s confuse the current uptick with a LT trend. </li></ul><ul><li>Music and Video entertainment vs. programs related to hobbies, children, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Educational video is an emerging sector integrated very tightly into content </li></ul>
  33. 58. Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance <ul><li>Streaming Media on demand </li></ul><ul><li>Definition of ‘use’. </li></ul><ul><li>Concept of place </li></ul><ul><li>Concept of News and Entertainment </li></ul><ul><li>End of physical format (DVD, tape, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Self published animation & video </li></ul><ul><li>Commentary, Reviews and Collectors </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Pedagogy </li></ul><ul><li>Boundarylessness </li></ul><ul><li>End of collections as we know them </li></ul><ul><li>Beginning of media bibliography </li></ul>
  34. 59. Mobility
  35. 60. Broadband <ul><li>You must clearly understand the latest FCC Whitespace Broadband Decision – THIS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL </li></ul><ul><li>Local wired </li></ul><ul><li>To the Home and workplace </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless as a business strategy (Starbucks) </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile dominates </li></ul><ul><li>Largest generation </li></ul>
  36. 65. & AMAZON
  37. 66. Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance <ul><li>Mobility </li></ul><ul><li>Concept of place – Adopt a hybrid mindset </li></ul><ul><li>Social animation and Sharing </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence on steroids </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Pedagogy and Learning </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme demand </li></ul>
  38. 67. Collections
  39. 68. An New Merging Model <ul><li>Just in case, Just in time, just for me models are now ripe for replacement with </li></ul><ul><li>Fit for Purpose </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Community </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Entertainment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social / Clubs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Research </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Beginning of the end for the dominance of out-of-context Megadatabases – </li></ul><ul><li>Think meals vs. grocery stores </li></ul>
  40. 72. Growing Online and Virtual Use <ul><li>Experience Models </li></ul><ul><li>Widgets </li></ul><ul><li>API’s </li></ul><ul><li>SEO </li></ul><ul><li>Google Analytics </li></ul><ul><li>Geo-IP </li></ul><ul><li>ForeSee </li></ul><ul><li>Satisfaction data AND Statistics – Measure too </li></ul>
  41. 73. Driving User to the Library <ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>HighBeam & Questia </li></ul><ul><li>WorldCat </li></ul><ul><li>AccessMyLibrary iPhone App for public, school and higher ed – iPhone and Droid! </li></ul><ul><li>Geo-IP features and measures </li></ul><ul><li>Watch for more . . .? </li></ul>
  42. 74. Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance <ul><li>Collections </li></ul><ul><li>Concept of place </li></ul><ul><li>Ownership mutates </li></ul><ul><li>Personal curation and celebrity curators </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Targeting collections </li></ul><ul><li>Portalization: Knowledge Portals, Learning portals </li></ul>2020
  43. 75. Libraries Approaching the End Game The Matrix Build it or buy it?
  44. 78. I  my customers
  45. 79. NOT ENOUGH
  46. 85. What is the top strategic positioning for libraries Hint – not collections
  47. 86. Trans-Literacy Move beyond reading & PC skills <ul><li>Reading literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Numeracy </li></ul><ul><li>Critical literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Social literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Computer literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Web literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Content literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Written literacy </li></ul><ul><li>News literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Technology literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Information literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Media literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptive literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Research literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Academic literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Reputation, Etc. </li></ul>
  48. 88. Reinvention, Creativity, Renaissance <ul><li>Libraries </li></ul><ul><li>Concept of place </li></ul><ul><li>Improving the quality of questions </li></ul><ul><li>Partnering in design of experiences </li></ul><ul><li>Programs predominate </li></ul><ul><li>Community involvement </li></ul><ul><li>Re-balancing needs </li></ul><ul><li>Addressing the divides </li></ul><ul><li>Promoting the talent – professional service and programs </li></ul>2020
  49. 89. Strategic Thinking for Libraries <ul><li>Choosing a Future </li></ul><ul><li>Setting Phased Priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Making Choices </li></ul><ul><li>Taking Action </li></ul><ul><li>Doing the Next Step </li></ul><ul><li>Adjusting Tactics with Experience </li></ul><ul><li>Seeking Feedback and Adjusting </li></ul><ul><li>Measuring Progress </li></ul>
  50. 90. Framework for Choosing Top Priorities <ul><li>Suppose that in three years : </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural! </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print </li></ul><ul><li>All learning will be blended and continuous </li></ul><ul><li>DVD is circulation is dead and most other [physical formats in decline. </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of questions will be virtual </li></ul><ul><li>Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile) </li></ul><ul><li>Every user will be socially networked, connected and engaged </li></ul>2020
  51. 91. What do we need to know? <ul><li>How do library databases and virtual services compare with other web experiences? </li></ul><ul><li>Who are our core virtual users? Are there gaps? </li></ul><ul><li>Does learning happen? </li></ul><ul><li>What are user expectations for true satisfaction? </li></ul><ul><li>How does library search compare to consumer search like Google and retail or government? </li></ul><ul><li>How do people find and connect with library virtual services? </li></ul><ul><li>Are end users being successful in their POV? </li></ul><ul><li>Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend? </li></ul>
  52. 92. Strategic Thinking for Libraries <ul><li>Choosing a Future </li></ul><ul><li>Setting Phased Priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Making Choices </li></ul><ul><li>Taking Action </li></ul><ul><li>Doing the Next Step </li></ul><ul><li>Adjusting Tactics with Experience </li></ul><ul><li>Seeking Feedback and Adjusting </li></ul><ul><li>Measuring Progress </li></ul>
  53. 93. The Boomers launched most of these digital initiatives. Now what are we/you going to do next?
  54. 94. Advance Survey Data for the Library of Virginia Prepared by Stephen Abram and the Gale, Cengage Learning Statistical Analysis Research Team
  55. 95. Reference Facet of the Library of Virginia Story September 2010 Survey Data 62 of 91 LVA library systems (68%) I am happy to do this same survey for you at no charge
  56. 96. Yep – We Get Questions <ul><li>Health and Wellness / Community Health / Nutrition / Diet / Recovery DIY Do It Yourself Activities and Car Repair Genealogy Test prep (SAT, ACT, occupational tests, etc. etc.) Legal Questions (including family law, divorce, adoption, etc) Hobbies, Games and Gardening Local History Consumer reviews (Choosing a car, appliance, etc.) Homework Help (grade school) Technology Skills (software, hardware, web) Government Programs, Services and Taxation Self-help/personal development Careers (jobs, counselling, etc.) Reading Choices and recommendations, books & authors Travel and Vacation, Tourism Support Supporting College credits, Distance Education, and Adult Continuing Education Personal Finance and Investments / Financial Literacy Religion and spirituality Retirement and Seniors Services General Reference / Quick Answer Questions (e.g. telephone numbers, addresses, definitions, locations, library hours and services, etc.) Coming to America or our Community (Immigration, Moving) Book Clubs / Community Reading / Summer Reading Business. Leadership and Management Parenting and Child Development Adult Literacy / ESL Entrepreneurship and Consulting Small and Medium-sized Business Support World Cultures/Understanding Our World History Studies (Civil War, WW2, etc.) Choosing a School, Program/Degree, College or University / College Planning Finding People / Biographies </li></ul>Silly me! --- I forgot language learning . . .
  57. 97. Top 13
  58. 98. The Baker’s Dozen: LVA Top 13 <ul><li>Health and Wellness / Community Health / Nutrition / Diet / Recovery </li></ul><ul><li>DIY Do It Yourself Activities and Car Repair </li></ul><ul><li>Genealogy </li></ul><ul><li>Test prep (SAT, ACT, occupational tests, etc. etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Legal Questions (including family law, divorce, adoption, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Hobbies, Games and Gardening </li></ul><ul><li>Local History </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer reviews (Choosing a car, appliance, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Homework Help (grade school) </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Skills (software, hardware, web) </li></ul><ul><li>Government Programs, Services and Taxation </li></ul><ul><li>Self-help/personal development </li></ul><ul><li>Careers (jobs, counselling, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Readers Advisory was 14th </li></ul>
  59. 102. Gale Cengage Learning North American Library Customer Satisfaction Data: All users: PL, AL, CL, SL, etc. Year One: Aug. 2009 – Sept. 2010 What do we need to know? What are we going to do next?
  60. 103. What do we need to know? <ul><li>How do library databases compare with other web experiences and expectations? </li></ul><ul><li>Who are our core virtual users? </li></ul><ul><li>What are user expectations for satisfaction? </li></ul><ul><li>How does library search compare to consumer search like Google? </li></ul><ul><li>How do people find and connect with library virtual services? </li></ul><ul><li>What should we ‘fix’ as a first priority? </li></ul><ul><li>Are end users being successful in their POV? </li></ul><ul><li>Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend? </li></ul>
  61. 104. Gale Library Databases Compare Very Well to Other Web Experiences
  62. 105. Digging Into Satisfaction Users will Return and Recommend Once Hooked   3 4 5 9 6 8 7 2 1         High School Student Univers/ College Student Librar’n Other, please specify Teacher Other Profess-ional Profess-or Middle School Student Elementary School Student Overall     Responses: 3,043 2,920 1,570 709 576 576 488 477 148 10,507       29% 28% 15% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 1%     Content 70 77 79 69 77 74 67 68 40 73 Look and Feel 64 74 74 64 72 70 61 63 37 68 Navigation 65 71 69 60 69 66 60 63 45 66 Search 61 73 73 60 71 67 59 59 35 66 Site Performance 73 79 77 72 77 76 68 72 52 75 Satisfaction 63 74 72 60 72 66 59 62 35 67 Likelihood to Return 72 82 85 71 82 78 66 69 36 76 Primary Resource 63 73 68 56 70 60 51 60 33 65 Recommend 63 78 83 66 80 72 63 61 36 71    
  63. 106. Library Search Needs to Improve
  64. 107. Who uses e-Resources? The Core User For Library E-Resources is Clear
  65. 108. Database Users Are Being Successful
  66. 110. There are Training and Communication Opportunities
  67. 111. More Males Use Library Databases Than Usual
  68. 112. There is Not A Demographic Swing in Online Usage
  69. 113. Library Users Trust Library Databases More.
  70. 114. School is the Sweet Spot – But Other Users Abound Too.
  71. 115. Library’s Natural Allies Are Big Users & Potential Partners.
  72. 116. Wow! Only 29% of Users Find E-Resources Through Our Websites.
  73. 117. OMG - 39% of Your Users Are in Your Databases for For the Very First Time!
  74. 118. Your Users Will Recommend Your Databases Your Users Will Recommend Your Databases
  75. 119. Your Users Respect Your Databases As Primary Sources
  76. 120. Your Users Are Likely to Return
  77. 121. Your Users Evaluate Your Services as Meeting Expectations.
  78. 127. There’s Great News! We have Room for Improvement BUT Library Databases Compete Very Well with User Expectations and Needs Fulfillment.
  79. 131. The School Cycle Drives Many Usage Scenarios
  80. 132. Upcoming Gale Surveys CATS DOGS CATS & DOGS
  81. 136. Strategic Implications <ul><li>Program(s) Planning Models </li></ul><ul><li>Tying Collections and Programs more Tightly Together to Enhance and Protect Both </li></ul><ul><li>Priority Setting for 5 Years </li></ul><ul><li>Developing Collaborative Communication and Promotion Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Developing Collaborative and Shared Staff and User Training Models </li></ul><ul><li>Holding Your Heads High </li></ul>
  82. 139. Community Stories
  83. 140. Relationships Stories
  84. 141. Personalization Differentiate
  85. 142. Comfort
  86. 143. Serve Everyone!
  87. 144. The power of libraries
  88. 145. Speak Out!
  89. 146. Surprise Them!
  90. 147. Trust Experiments!
  91. 148. It Takes A Team: Work Together & Pick Each Other Up
  92. 150. Stephen Abram , MLS, FSLA VP strategic partnerships and markets Cengage Learning (Gale) Cel: 416-669-4855 [email_address] Stephen’s Lighthouse Blog Facebook: Stephen Abram LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen Abram Twitter: sabram SlideShare: StephenAbram1