Prof Rob WIlson (University of Warwick) - Using Labour Force Survey to measure and anticipate changing skills demand

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  • Prof Rob WIlson (University of Warwick) - Using Labour Force Survey to measure and anticipate changing skills demand

    1. 1. 40 years of using the LFS to assess and anticipate changing skill needs Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick The Labour Force Survey: past, present and future BIS Conference Centre, 1 Victoria Street, London, Thursday 28th November 2013
    2. 2. Overview: • Skills forecasting in the UK • Measuring skills - classifications and sources • Use of the LFS in assessing changing skills structures • Key research questions and some answers • Using the LFS in practice – Working Futures • Emerging uses - LMI for All • Caveats and possible future developments
    3. 3. 40 years of UK skills assessment  Manpower planning and all that- Britain’s Medium Term Employment Prospects - the EITB, the TSA & MSC  The Thatcher years -Economic change and employment policy; the Review of the Economy and Employment  Evidence based policy – the National Skills Task Force - new Projections of Occupations and Qualifications  The Sector Skills Development Agency and the Learning and Skills Council- Working Futures BLANK  UK Commission for Employment and Skills continuation of Working Futures and - LMI for All  Cedefop – pan European Skills Assessments Text blank
    4. 4. Measuring skills Occupations - development of the Standard Occupational Classification (from WOCs to SOCs) Qualifications - highest formal qualification held Sources of data on skills  Census of Population  Other sources (NES, ASHE, etc)  LFS
    5. 5. Use of the LFS: Pros & cons. • Pros:  cornerstone of ONS’s LMI strategy  increasing availability  increasing sample size • Cons:  still limited sample size  weakness of proxy responses  limitations of a household survey
    6. 6. Key research questions • What drives the supply of skills? • What are the factors influencing the changing demand for skills? • What is the changing balance between the two?
    7. 7. How we use the LFS in practice • Supply of skills • monitoring numbers of people available (economically active) and in particular the breakdown by those formally qualified to different levels • modelling this using various techniques including pseudo cohorts created from the LFS (building stock-flow and related models) • Demand for skills • changing patterns of employment by occupation and by highest qualification held, focussing on shares within industries (linked to a multisectoral macroeconomic model)
    8. 8. Use of the LFS: Monitoring key trends • Sectors (national accounts data) • Occupations within sectors (LFS) • Qualifications (LFS) • Replacement needs also based on LFS
    9. 9. Perceptions of changing skill structure • 1978 - Britain’s Medium Term Employment Prospects • 1981 - Economic Change & Employment Policy • 1982- 1997 - Review of the Economy & Employment • 1999 -2001 - Projections of Occupations & Qualifications • 2004 - date - Working Futures (1- 5) • From 2006 - pan- European work - use of the EU LFS
    10. 10. Key trends: increasingly well qualified
    11. 11. Increasingly well qualified (% in employment) Tidy
    12. 12. Key trends: the rise of the professionals Text blank
    13. 13. Polarising job structure (% shares)
    14. 14. Recent developments: Open data •New uses and new demands - LMI for All  aims and objectives - open access to official data to provide useful information for careers guidance and advice;  demand for detail - but conflicts with confidentiality, privacy, statistical reliability •Filling the data gaps – use of regression analysis and other estimation techniques
    15. 15. Recent developments: The European context •Cedefop pan-European forecasts:  extension of Working Futures to cover 30+ countries based primarily around the Eurostat LFS
    16. 16. Some outstanding problems: where have all the scientists gone? • Census /LFS inconsistencies? Where have all the professionals (especially scientists gone? • Proxy responses
    17. 17. Conclusions and possible future developments • What would we do without the LFS? • How can we improve on it? • Need for an independent employers survey (e.g: US Occupational Employment Statistics survey)
    18. 18. Further information and links: Working Futures: http://www.ukces.org.uk/search?keywords=Working+Futures+2010-2020&type=all LMI for all: http://www.ukces.org.uk/ourwork/resaerch/lmi/lmi-for-all Cedefop pan-European Projections: http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/about-cedefop/projects/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supply/forecasting-skill-demand-and-supply.aspx and : http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/20612.aspx Rob Wilson, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, COVENTRY, CV4 7AL r.a.wilson@warwick.ac.uk; Tel:+(44) 2476-523530

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