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ONS Economic Forum, Darlington - 21 November 2022

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ONS Economic Forum, Darlington - 21 November 2022

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ONS Regional Economic Forum presented the current state of the UK economy and presented data and analysis for your area at a local level.

We welcomed guest speakers from Teesside University, Darlington Economic Campus and Tees Valley Combined Authority.

ONS Regional Economic Forum presented the current state of the UK economy and presented data and analysis for your area at a local level.

We welcomed guest speakers from Teesside University, Darlington Economic Campus and Tees Valley Combined Authority.

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ONS Economic Forum, Darlington - 21 November 2022

  1. 1. Darlington Economic Forum 21 November 2022 @ONSfocus slido #37892 #economicforum
  2. 2. Welcome @ONSfocus #economicforum Grant Fitzner Chief Economist and Director of Macroeconomic Statistics and Analysis @GrantFitzner slido #37892
  3. 3. Today’s agenda 09.35am – 09.50am ONS plans for subnational statistics – Samantha Toon and James McCrae, Office for National Statistics 09.50am – 10.05am Exploring Socio-economic trends, the work of Teesside University – Professor Natasha Vall, Dean of the School of Social Science, Humanities and Law, Teesside University 10.05am – 10.15am Q&A 10.15am – 10.30am Opportunity and Analysis – Darren Morgan, Director, Economic Statistics Production & Analysis, Office for National Statistics and James Burchell and Ash Kandola, Placement Students, Office for National Statistics 10.30am – 10.45am What are Green Jobs and Why are they important? A Tees Valley Approach – Thomas Peggs, Tees Valley Combined Authority 10.45am – 10.55am Q&A 10.55am – 11.00am Closing remarks – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, ONS @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  4. 4. Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #37892. You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
  5. 5. Office for National Statistics ONS plans for subnational statistics Samantha Toon and James McCrae @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  6. 6. Contents • Strategy and workplan • Timely, granular subnational statistics and insight • Improved dissemination • Economic trends in the North East slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  7. 7. Strategy and workplan slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  8. 8. GSS Subnational Data Strategy (December 21) A framework to guide the GSS in producing and disseminating more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics, that meet user needs Referenced in the Levelling Up White Paper as a key enabler in the Government’s ambition to improve subnational data and improve transparency and accountability to the public slido #37892
  9. 9. GSS Subnational Data Strategy ambitions Produce more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics Build capability and capacity for subnational statistics and analysis Improve the dissemination of subnational statistics Explore Subnational Statistics service slido #37892
  10. 10. ONS Subnational Workplan ONS committed to follow up the Strategy with a workplan Published 16 May 2022 A cross-cutting overview of the wide range of new or improved subnational outputs and initiatives, planned for the next 18 months, across the Office A strong commitment for UK-wide coverage, where possible, enabled by solid collaboration with the Devolved Administrations slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  11. 11. Timely, granular subnational statistics and insight slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  12. 12. Model-based early estimates of regional GVA • Started publishing model-based quarterly estimates of regional GVA from October 2021 onwards • Early indication of quarterly GDP, published 5 months in advance Source slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  13. 13. Productivity in towns and travel to work areas • Experimental labour productivity data for TTWAs and towns made available for the first time in December 2021 • Complements existing annual subregional productivity release Source slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  14. 14. Disaggregating annual subnational GVA to lower levels of geography • As part of the ONS strategy to provide more granular data to our users • Experimental statistics using granular geographies as building blocks to derive GVA for flexible geographies • Improve our understanding of the local economy • Provisional publication for second version 1st December 2022 Source slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  15. 15. Improved Dissemination 21 November 2022 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  16. 16. Explore Subnational Statistics • Announced in GSS subnational data strategy • One-stop-shop for subnational data and statistics • Standardised geographies and user-defined areas • Prototyped as Subnational indicators explorer – second iteration published in May 2022, third iteration released next week ! slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  17. 17. LUDA/X-Govt platform • Cross Govt levelling up data collaboration platform – develop suite of dashboards to support decision making across Govt.​ • Space for shared analysis and output production​. • Stores all levelling up data, including ESS data.​​ • Will allow Govt colleagues to respond rapidly to queries using available data. slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  18. 18. ONS Local 21 November 2022 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  19. 19. ONS Local An analytical advisory service for local leaders, with dedicated analysts based across the UK, ensuring those locally have access to data, statistics and analysis to support decision making Support users to navigate subn ational data and analysis (both readily available and in development) Work with regional partners to influence ONS plans and priorities Make links between national and ONS data with local data, adding analysis for greater insight Join up areas with similar challenges Aims In development – for discussion
  20. 20. Phased implementation • Support to understand and interpret datasets • Individual work plans agreed with regions • Developing collaborative analytical projects of benefit to multiple areas and regions • Support to access data platforms and existing data sources • Hosting forums to discuss cross-cutting themes • Feedback to inform wider ONS prioritisation • Dedicated ONS Local space on website • Webinars • Events • Newsletter • Evaluating stakeholder needs Stage one Stage two Stage three Red: Vacancies Amber: Not in post yet/partially filled Green: Fully recruited ons.local@ons.gov.uk slido #37892
  21. 21. Economic trends in North East 21 November 2022 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  22. 22. The North East has seen weaker growth than the rest of the UK since 2008 Gross value added, chain volume measure, per cent growth, 2008 to 2019 Source: Regional gross value added (balanced) by industry: all ITL regions 0% 10% 20% 30% North East Scotland Yorkshire and The Humber Northern Ireland East Midlands South West United Kingdom East of England North West Wales West Midlands South East London slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  23. 23. Darlington bucks the trend however with above average growth Gross value added, chain volume measure, per cent growth, 2008 to 2019 Source: Regional gross value added (balanced) by industry: all ITL regions -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Durham CC Northumberland South Teesside Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees Sunderland Tyneside United Kingdom Darlington slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  24. 24. The unemployment gap with England is closing Unemployment rate, monthly, aged 16-64, 2008-2022 Source: HI00 Regional labour market: Headline Labour Force Survey indicators for all regions England North East 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  25. 25. Employment is growing, but continues to track below average Employment rate, monthly, aged 16-64, 2008-2022 Source: HI00 Regional labour market: Headline Labour Force Survey indicators for all regions 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 England North East slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  26. 26. The inactivity gap has widened since covid began Inactivity rate, monthly, aged 16-64, 2008-2022 Source: HI00 Regional labour market: Headline Labour Force Survey indicators for all regions England North East 15% 20% 25% 30% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  27. 27. Long-term illness is more of an issue in the North East than elsewhere in England Self-reported reason for being economically inactive, proportion of total inactive, 2021 Source: Annual Population Survey - regional - economic inactivity by reasons 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Discouraged Temporary sick Other Retired Looking after family/home Student Long-term sick North East England slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  28. 28. Productivity within the region is below average for the most part Gross value added per hour worked, ITL3, current price, 2019, difference from UK average Source: Subregional productivity: labour productivity indices by UK ITL2 and ITL3 subregions -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Sunderland Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees Darlington Tyneside Durham CC South Teesside Northumberland slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  29. 29. Meaning disposable income is also low Gross disposable household income per head, £, 2019 Source: Regional gross disposable household income, UK: 1997 to 2019 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Middlesbrough South Tyneside Hartlepool Sunderland Newcastle upon Tyne Gateshead County Durham Redcar and Cleveland Darlington Stockton-on-Tees North Tyneside Northumberland United Kingdom slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  30. 30. Though the North East has some of the most affordable housing relative to average earnings Ratio of house prices to average earnings, 2021 Source: Housing affordability in England and Wales: 2021 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  31. 31. Low productivity is likely the result of having more jobs in less productive industries Proportion of jobs by industry, per cent, North East and UK, June 2022 Source: JOBS05: Workforce jobs by region and industry (excludes mentions <1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% NE UK slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  32. 32. Darlington & Sunderland are showing greater productivity growth than other areas Gross value added per hour worked, ITL2, chain volume measure, 2019, index: 2008 = 100 Source: Subregional productivity: labour productivity indices by UK ITL2 and ITL3 subregions 80 100 120 140 160 180 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 UK Darlington Sunderland Durham CC slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  33. 33. Which could be a result of the type of industries they over perform in Source: Understanding towns: industry analysis slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  34. 34. A specialism in manufacturing means potential for strong goods exports Source: Subnational trade in goods slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  35. 35. Thank you! 21 November 2022 slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  36. 36. Exploring Socio-economic trends, the work of Teesside University Socio-economic research in the School of Social Sciences, Humanities & Law and Teesside University International Business School Professor Natasha Vall, Acting Dean (SSHL)
  37. 37. Socio-economic research @ School of Social Sciences Humanities & Law Research is organised across three Research Centres: Centre for Social Innovation- explores the complex interplay between social cohesion, public policy and societal change Centre for Applied Psychological Science-bridges the gap between theoretical research and applied practice by providing evidence-based solutions to societal challenges Centre for Culture and Creativity-addressing historical and creative questions, utilising methodologies including archival, practice-based, critical and theoretical
  38. 38. We see national statistical data becoming increasingly important in our research across all our centres, in areas such as criminal justice, public health and socio-economic development • The school has a large set researchers from several disciplines whose research employs quantitative/experimental approaches and who have a strong foundation in descriptive and inferential statistics • The data are particularly valuable for examining community composition as well as geographic variations in socio-economic outcomes, which link to the work in the Centre for Social Innovation • We have a number of researchers in the school who also examine the social and ethical implications of data-driven policy, including algorithmic governance (e.g. Prof. Marty Chamberlain) • We have researchers who are interested in responsible use of data as part of the broader discussion around responsible research practices (e.g. Prof. Matt Cotton) “
  39. 39. Socio-economic and Public Health data • Our school has several strands of work focused on Public Health (e.g. Prof. Newbury Birch @TEAMALPHA, Centre for Social Innovation) for which the analysis of regional and national data is integral • Prof. van Schaik in the Centre for Applied Psychological Science on blood-borne viruses is incorporating regional health data from NHS digital • Research in the Centre for Culture and Creativity (e.g. Prof. Karikis, Prof. McKeown) involves the wellbeing of minority groups or seeks to incorporate communities at the economic and socio-geographic fringes • The incorporation of large datasets would broaden the scope of all these research questions
  40. 40. Socio-economic research and town centres Teesside University and University College London are collaborating on research regarding the future of town centres, and (in particular) town centres in Tees Valley and wider North East • This work has highlighted a central tension in recent policy (Levelling Up) - the balance between economic development and pride in place (Dr Nick Gray, Prof John Tomaney, Prof Natasha Vall) • Findings have informed a recent bid (https://www.ukri.org/opportunity/developing-local-policy-innovation-partnerships/) led by Teesside University, in collaboration with UCL, Durham, Newcastle, Sunderland and Northumbria Universities • This will explore related questions including: • What is the balance between pride in place and economic growth? • What might be the local practical application of ideas around the foundational economy and community wealth building?
  41. 41. Tourism Research Expertise @ Teesside University Dr Christopher Hayes Course Leader for BA (Hons) Tourism Management Expertise in: • Destination image • Mega events & tourism Dr Jakia Rajoana Senior Lecturer in Business Expertise in: • Women entrepreneurs • Sustainable tourism Dr Leon Davis Course Leader for BA (Hons) Events Management Expertise in: • Sports fandom • Event management Our experts carry out tourism-focused research internationally, including in Bangladesh, France, and Japan. They have published in high-ranking journals and have also worked with industry and local stakeholders, including for ongoing projects. Dr Hayes & Dr Davis are currently looking at wayfinding and destination branding at the Rugby League World Cup, and are keen to work with stakeholders on leveraging events for tourism.
  42. 42. Dr Mohamed Elheddad Senior Lecturer Economics Expertise in: Energy Economics, FDI in natural resource-rich economies, and sustainability Dr Mohammad Abedin Senior Lecturer in Business Expertise in: Fintech & Financial Innovation Dr Zhang He Principal Lecturer Expertise in: Economic of European Monetary Union and Single Currency Area, Regional Labour Markets, Financial Deepening and Income inequality Our experts concentrated on energy economics, Fintech, inflation and labour market research internationally, including in Europe, Asia and African economies . They have published in high-ranking journals and have also worked with industry and local stakeholders. EcTonomics Research Expertise (TUIB)  Dr Yifei Cai Energy Economics. Oil and gas price, decoupling hypothesis, politics and energy price, oil and macroeconomy. Applied macroeconomics: migration, uncertainty shocks, fiscal balance and extreme weather risks.  Dr Olalekan Aladesanmi Macroeconomics and economic development in Africa.  Dr Kehinde Omotoso Microeconomics in Africa.  Dr Vahid Ghorbani Pashakolaie Energy Economics and Bioenergy research.
  43. 43. Q&A Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #37892. You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
  44. 44. Director, Economic Statistics Production & Analysis – Office for National Statistics Opportunity… and analysis Darren Morgan @ONSfocus #economicforum Placement Students Office for National Statistics slido #37892 James Burchell and Ash Kandola
  45. 45. The Darlington Economic Campus! slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  46. 46. Who are at DEC? slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  47. 47. So …tell me then…..why should I be interested? • Numbers: 1,100 • Types of roles: Analytical, Policy, Project Mgmt, IT, HR, Finance, Administrative – basically, everything you can think of! • Recruitment: constant and ongoing Civil Service job search - Civil Service Jobs - GOV.UK • Impact: making a difference to the country and society slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  48. 48. Foreign Direct Investment in the North East: 2020 @ONSfocus #economicforum Student Economist – Global Trade and Investment slido #37892 James Burchell Ash Kandola Student Economist – Public Policy Analysis
  49. 49. FDI in the North East: 2020 Teesside Freeport
  50. 50. Foreign Direct Investment • Cross-border investment • Control relationships (10% of voting power) • Positions, flows and earnings Investment UK Company Direct Investment Enterprise Foreign Company Direct Investor/Parent Company Purchases >10% of voting power in UK Company slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  51. 51. Foreign Direct Investment: Key drivers • Resource Seeking • Market Seeking • Asset Seeking • National Factors • Regional Factors Nissan Sunderland slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  52. 52. Subnational FDI estimates: 2020 Foreign Investment in the North East slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  53. 53. Direct Investment into the North East was the lowest in England 2020 inward FDI position per capita, by ITL1 subregion, £ 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Wales Northern Ireland North East Yorkshire and The Humber North West East Midlands West Midlands East South West Scotland South East London Inward FDI per capita, £ Source: Foreign direct investment, experimental UK subnational estimates Population estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  54. 54. Direct Investment in the subregions of NE was below average 2020 inward FDI position, by ITL2 subregion, £ million 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Northumberland, and Tyne and Wear Tees Valley and Durham Inward FDI position, £ million Source: Foreign direct investment, experimental UK subnational estimates slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  55. 55. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Manufacturing Wholesale, Transportation & storage Other Financial & Insurance Professional & Support Information & Communication Mining & quarrying* Tees Valley and Durham UK Manufacturing made up over half of all inward FDI in Tees Valley and Durham in 2020 2020 inward FDI position industry breakdown, by ITL2 subregion, % of subregional total *Value suppressed for disclosure Source: Foreign direct investment, experimental UK subnational estimates slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  56. 56. This result is even more pronounced for the Tees Valley combined authority 2020 inward FDI position industry breakdown, by city region, % of city region total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Manufacturing Wholesale, Transportation & storage Other Financial & Insurance Professional & Support Information & Communication Mining & quarrying* Tees Valley Combined Authority UK *Value suppressed for disclosure Source: Foreign direct investment, experimental UK subnational estimates slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  57. 57. Subnational skills Understanding the specialisation in Manufacturing slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  58. 58. Skills can be broken down into two main categories. Sensory-Physical Socio-Cognitive Equipment Selection Active Listening Installation Speaking Operations Monitoring Monitoring Operation and Control Learning Strategy Repairing Social Perceptiveness slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  59. 59. Skills in the North East are concentrated in sensory-physical activity. English RCA(s,c) by skill type, 0 = UK average *Results are not final and may change. Not to be copied or shared without permission. -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 North East East Midlands West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber East North West South West South East Sensory-Physical -0.004 -0.002 0 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 North East East Midlands West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber East North West South West South East Socio-Cognitive slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  60. 60. This result still holds even when excluding the South East. English RCA(s,c) by skill type, 0 = UK average (South East excluded) *Results are not final and may change. Not to be copied or shared without permission. -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 North East East Midlands West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber East North West South West Sensory-Physical -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0 0.001 0.002 North East East Midlands West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber East North West South West Socio-Cognitive slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  61. 61. The North East’s strongest skills complement work in Manufacturing. North East RCA(c,s) by Element type, Top 5 and Bottom 5, 0 = UK Average -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 Operations Analysis Programming Management of Financial Resources Science Systems Analysis Troubleshooting Operation and Control Equipment Selection Repairing Equipment Maintenance *Results are not final and may change. Not to be copied or shared without permission. slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  62. 62. For further reference: • Interactive data elements • Positions, earnings and flows • ITL1, ITL2, city regions • Industry groups, continent • Inward/Outward slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  63. 63. Thank you James.Burchell@ons.gov.uk James Burchell Ash.Kandola@ons.gov.uk Ash Kandola slido #37892 @ONSfocus #economicforum
  64. 64. WHAT ARE GREEN JOBS & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT?: A TEES VALLEY APPROACH ----- 21/11/2022 -----
  65. 65. • Range of definitions for “Green Jobs” at a national and international level: • UN System of Environmental Economic Accounting • International Labour Organisation • Greater London Authority (GLA) • Multiple definitions are cited to suit different uses and consequently make this a complex area. • As the UK moves towards Net Zero, the “Green” economy will expand, therefore a coherent approach that enables robust analysis that can support policy-making is required. What are Green Jobs?
  66. 66. • Three ways of framing a green jobs definition can be considered: • An occupation-based approach, including all jobs that are green • An industry-based approach, including all jobs in a green industry • A firm-based approach, including all jobs in a green firm • TVCA supports the use of an occupation-based approach. • Green jobs can be in any industrial sector and conversely industry sectors include jobs that may or may not be green. • Clear benefits to adopting an occupation-based approach, including the linkage to other relevant datasets to understand skills and workforce requirements Tees Valley CA Approach
  67. 67. • Identify occupations that are likely to be affected by greening as opposed to jobs that are inherently green. • Approach mirrors the GLA Economic Working Paper 99 – Identifying Green Occupations in London. • GLA Economics approach converts the US O*NET occupations classified as affected by ‘greening’ into a UK SOC code nearest equivalent using programming algorithms. • Following a manual review of the UK SOC green occupation list by GLA Economics, only one SOC code was required to be added. • Occupation-based approach enables economic modelling to be produced to analysis skills and workforce requirements. Tees Valley CA Approach
  68. 68. • All UK SOC code occupations were classified into four distinct groups: • Green increased demand – existing jobs that are expected to be in high demand due to ‘greening’, without requiring significant changes in tasks, skills or knowledge. • Green enhanced skills – existing jobs that require significant changes in tasks, skills and knowledge as a result of ‘greening’. • Green new and emerging – new jobs with unique worker requirements that meet the specific needs of the green economy. • Non-green • c.100 occupation codes (4 digit SOC) are covered within the Tees Valley produced list, however this is subject to a manual review to closer reflect the Tees Valley economy. Tees Valley CA Approach
  69. 69. • Tees Valley has the ambition to becomes the world’s first Net Zero industrial cluster by 2040 and be the leading region for the UK’s net zero ambitions. • Currently 67,750 green jobs in Tees Valley, which represents c.25% of all jobs within the region. • 23,600 green enhanced skills jobs (8.8% of jobs compared to 9.3% nationally). • 29,920 green increased demand jobs (11.2% of jobs compared to 10.5% nationally). • 14,220 green new and emerging jobs (5.3% compared to 6% nationally). Tees Valley Green Economy
  70. 70. • The number of green jobs in Tees Valley are projected to grow by 3.3% between 2021 and 2030, this matches the projected change nationally. • Green enhanced skills jobs are projected to increase by 2.9% between 2021 and 2030 (3.4% nationally) . • Green Increased demand jobs are projected to increase by 3.1% between 2021 and 2030 (3.3% nationally). • Green new and emerging jobs are projected to increase by 4.3% between 2021 and 2030 (3.3% nationally). • Nationally, 17% of people employed in green jobs are aged 55 and over and 76% are male. • Between February 2021 and January 2022, there were 14,380 vacancies available online for green jobs. Tees Valley Green Economy
  71. 71. • Understanding Green Jobs and how they change over time is essential for measuring our local economies throughout the transition to Net Zero • Analysis can guide policy decisions that will be critical to identify the green jobs, along with the related skills demand and supply going forward. • Ensure all stakeholders work coherently to grasp the opportunities of a green industrial revolution and meet the challenges of supporting high carbon sectors, their workers and the communities they support through the transition to net zero. Why is Green Jobs Analysis Important?
  72. 72. • ONS has stated that they “seek to refine our understanding and measurement of the green economy as the UK transitions to net zero, including looking at such issues as quality of work and diversity within the green economy”. • ONS are continuing there Green Jobs project, which aims to provide: • A clear definition of green jobs • Experimental statistics measuring green jobs, using these definitions • Initial analytical outputs • Collaboration across stakeholders can ensure future work on “Green Jobs” can meet the needs for all. Future Steps
  73. 73. Q&A Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #37892. You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
  74. 74. Closing remarks @ONSfocus #economicforum Grant Fitzner Chief Economist and Director of Macroeconomic Statistics and Analysis @GrantFitzner slido #37892
  75. 75. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis 21 November 2022 – Equality across different areas of life in the UK: 2010 to 2020 22 November 2022 – Are wages keeping up with high inflation in the UK? 22 November 2022 – Global inflation (analysis of inflationary trends for 29 economies) 1 December 2022 – Disaggregating UK annual subnational gross value added (GVA) to lower levels of geography, 1998 to 2020 5 December 2022 – Self-reported long COVID and labour market outcomes All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  76. 76. Dates for your diary 1 December 2022 – ESCoE Webinar – Efficient Industrial Policy for Innovation: Standing on the Shoulders of Hidden Giants 7 December 2022 – Regional Economic Forum – Wales 15 December 2022 – ESCoE Webinar – Capitalizing Data: A Case Study of Individual Credit Files Further details on the above event and any upcoming events will be published at ons.gov.uk/economicevents @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  77. 77. Public consultation Review of the Measures of National Well-being – Closes 25 November 2022 We are reviewing the measures of national well-being. In August, we restarted regular updates of the Measures of National Well-being dashboard, which measures the quality of life in the UK. This publication marked over 10 years since its creation and developments to date, including it being published alongside GDP and climate change insights for the first time. This milestone gives us an opportunity to reflect on the original 34,000 responses which fed into the development of the national well-being dashboard, and the changes to society since the dashboard’s inception. As part of the review, we are launching a consultation to review the measures included in the dashboard and how we communicate these insights. Please give us your views and take part in the survey. @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  78. 78. Measuring non-market activity – challenges and opportunities conference in an international context Call for Papers: Deadline Friday 9 December, 2022 The ONS will hold a ‘Measuring non-market activity - challenges and opportunities’ conference on 14 and 15 February 2023 at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), London. We welcome papers on all aspects of the measurement of non-market output. We are particularly interested in submissions related to the following areas:  Innovative approaches to the measurement of collective and individual services  Quality adjustments for non-market measures  International comparisons To submit a full paper or an extended abstract (around 800 words), please email nonmarketoutputconference@ons.gov.uk and attach your submission. @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  79. 79. ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement 2023 Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) will hold its annual conference, in partnership with the ONS, on 17-19 May 2023 at King’s Business School, King’s College London. We invite submissions of papers on all aspects of the measurement and use of economic statistics. We are particularly interested in submissions related to the areas: • Inclusive Wealth Measures and Looking Beyond GDP; • National Accounts (including measurement issues regarding Prices, International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment); • Net-Zero, Climate Change and the Environment; • Subnational Statistics; • Productivity and Innovation; • Labour Markets, Households and Inequality. For details on how to submit a full paper, extended abstract or a proposal for a special session please visit the ESCoE website. Call for Papers: Deadline 16 January 2023 @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #37892
  80. 80. Thank you for attending the Economic Forum You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via ons.gov.uk/economicevents If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so via economic.engagement@ons.gov.uk

Editor's Notes

  • We will be using the first portion of this presentation to cover the strategic thinking that is underpinning our future plans for subnational, before going into a bit more detail around a couple of our ambitions; the first being about producing more timely and granular subnational statistics, and the second on how we’re looking to improve their dissemination.

    We’ll then finish off our presentation by using some of our key datasets to give a brief picture of the East Midlands economy.
  • The GSS Subnational Data Strategy provides a framework to guide the GSS in producing and disseminating more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics.
    The Strategy sets out how we can achieve this aim by showcasing best practice and case studies, while signposting to existing GSS policies and guidance.
    The Strategy was launched in December at the Economic Forum. On the same day our division also published an article on the industry structure of towns and the first experimental GVA estimates at MSOA level.

    GSS subnational data strategy launched at ONS Economic Forum in December 2021 by Sam Beckett, alongside article on the industry structure of towns and first experimental GVA estimates at MSOA (and LSOA level through SRS)

    For the purposes of this strategy, ‘subnational’ refers to all data and statistics that are provided for the 12 International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1) areas in the UK, which include Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and the nine English regions, and for lower-level geographies.

  • The Strategy identifies three overarching ambitions which should guide us all when working with subnational statistics.
    The first ambition is to produce more timely, granular and harmonised subnational statistics, aiming for subnational by default.
    The second ambition focusses on building capability and capacity for subnational statistics and analysis by improving the way we share data, methods and expertise. 
    The third ambition is to improve the dissemination of subnational statistics so that our users can draw insights from our outputs more efficiently.
    Together, these three ambitions set out a vision for the creation of a single service for the dissemination of subnational data and statistics organised by standardised geographies and able to accommodate flexible user-defined areas. We like to think of this as the Explore Subnational Statistics service.
  • See content on slide but mention the sentence below if appropriate:

    The publication of this ONS subnational workplan will set a virtuous precedent and encourage other Departments to think about their own workplans through the Strategy’s ambitions lens.
  • I will now go into a bit more detail on the first ambition of the GSS subnational data strategy, highlighting some of the work we’ve been doing which contributes to this space.
  • We understand that timeliness is really important for our users, and this was also a key theme in the Bean review for Economic Statistics.
    Off the back off this, ESCoE developed new econometric methods to improve the timeliness and frequency of regional economic growth estimates in the UK.
    These model-based early estimates of regional GVA have now transitioned to the ONS, and we started publishing them in October last year
    The main strength of these estimates is timeliness – we are able to publish them to approximately the same timetable as the UK first estimate of GDP
  • Next I’d like to highlight our output on productivity in towns and travel to work areas
    These are experimental statistics that we published for the first time last December, with the most recent output released in March
    These data complement the existing annual labour productivity estimates produced for local authorities, combined authorities and ITL areas in our annual subregional productivity release
    In particular, this output aligns with our aim to publish more granular statistics – by using the TTWA geography, we can explore labour productivity for areas where most people both live and work
  • In December last year, we published experimental statistics on GVA at a lower level of geography, down to MSOA level, by using LSOA data as “building blocks” to create these breakdowns.
    For example, here we have a map looking at the West Midlands Metro region, where a new geography has been defined covering all the LSOAs that the metro line passes through, enabling us to analyse an area with no defined boundary.
    All this work feeds into the vision for Explore Subnational Statistics, which will have the flexibility to accommodate user-defined areas.
  • Now I’d like to talk about the work we’re doing to improve the dissemination of more timely and granular subnational statistics
  • First announced as part of the GSS subnational data strategy last December
    Bringing together the 3 ambitions of the strategy to produce and disseminate more timely, granular, and harmonised subnational data and statistics
    Single service for the dissemination of subnational statistics and analysis
    Organised by standardised geographies and able to accommodate user-defined areas
    First prototype (Subnational Indicators Explorer) published in Spring alongside the Levelling Up white paper, with a second iteration published last month to add 2 new metrics and more data to the accompanying datasets. Planning to have more iterations of the explorer published later this year, still open to feedback which can be submitted via the website
  • However, the organising principle behind it all is to create a statistical advisory service for local leaders, that ensures they have access to the data and insight they need to make decisions
    The aims of this service would be 4 fold.
    The first is about access to data. We know that the data landscape can be challenging to navigate with similar measures and redeveloped measures. Our role would be to support people in finding and using the most appropriate data for their needs.
    The second is about influencing ONS plans and priorities. There are some issues that we can predict interest in because they have a national presence, e.g. COL. There are others however that might be of interest to a specific number of regions or issues that have different implications regionally that we can better understand and feed into plans with.
    The third is about making better links between national and local data. There is more we can do to improve access to national data and also bring local data into the ONS for wider use.
    And lastly there is the opportunity to bring different areas together with similar challenges. For instance, we’ve done work with coastal towns before and there could be similar opportunities for rural areas or industrial areas.
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/datasets/nominalandrealregionalgrossvalueaddedbalancedbyindustry
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/datasets/nominalandrealregionalgrossvalueaddedbalancedbyindustry
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/headlinelabourforcesurveyindicatorsforallregionshi00
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/headlinelabourforcesurveyindicatorsforallregionshi00
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/headlinelabourforcesurveyindicatorsforallregionshi00
  • https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/construct/submit.asp?menuopt=201&subcomp=
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/datasets/subregionalproductivitylabourproductivitygvaperhourworkedandgvaperfilledjobindicesbyuknuts2andnuts3subregions
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/regionalaccounts/grossdisposablehouseholdincome/bulletins/regionalgrossdisposablehouseholdincomegdhi/1997to2019
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/housingaffordabilityinenglandandwales/2021
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/workforcejobsbyregionandindustryjobs05

    Mention Manufacturing, Finance and Professional Services
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/datasets/subregionalproductivitylabourproductivitygvaperhourworkedandgvaperfilledjobindicesbyuknuts2andnuts3subregions
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/understandingtownsindustryanalysis/2021-12-13
  • https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/bulletins/internationaltradeinuknationsregionsandcities/latest
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    To be a driver of strategic partnership that deliver impact
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