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Kiwi SaaS Metrics That Matter 2023^LLJ r2.2.pdf

Slides from a presentation I gave at KiwiSaaS 2023 entitled Metrics That Matter in 2023. This presentation discusses the change in the financing environment, how companies can respond to it, and the key metrics that I think will matter in 2023 and 2024 to securing additional funding rounds.

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Kiwi SaaS Metrics That Matter 2023^LLJ r2.2.pdf
Metrics That
Matter in 2023
Dave Kellogg, EIR at Balderton Capital
Author of Kellblog (www.kellblog.com)
The World, As You May Have Noticed, Has Changed
10x is the new 20x Unicorns are rare again
Source: D.A. Davidson, The Herd
P2P is the new growth
Oh, And That’s Not To Mention That …
“Bank run” took on an
old, new meaning
Runway extension was already in focus:
flat is the new up
(Too soon?)
https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194
Thought From The Founder of Sequoia Capital
“All companies that go out of
business do so for the same reason –
they run out of money.”
-- Don Valentine
Valentine was a quote machine, see here for a taste: https://somethingventured.com/2007/11/wisdoms-of-sequ/
See here for a 75-page interview, part of an oral history of Silicon Valley: https://digitalassets.lib.berkeley.edu/roho/ucb/text/valentine_donald.pdf
What’s a Startup To Do?
● Extend your runway
○ Cut burn
○ Venture debt (best set up before you need it for quick cord pull)
○ Inside round (extension round)
○ New round (clean or structured) – beware a “dirty terms sheet”
● Make a plan to “re-earn” your last-round valuation
○ Roughly, how can we double ARR before we run out of cash?
● Enable the next round, likely in 18-24 months
○ Focusing on the metrics that matter (in the new world)
○ “Tramps like us, baby, we were born to run.”
See Balderton webinar on growth/burn: https://www.balderton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Growth-and-burn-upload-2.pdf
See this post which predicts recovery to be more slog than blip https://buckonsoftware.substack.com/p/the-software-slog

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Kiwi SaaS Metrics That Matter 2023^LLJ r2.2.pdf

  • 2. Metrics That Matter in 2023 Dave Kellogg, EIR at Balderton Capital Author of Kellblog (www.kellblog.com)
  • 3. The World, As You May Have Noticed, Has Changed 10x is the new 20x Unicorns are rare again Source: D.A. Davidson, The Herd P2P is the new growth
  • 4. Oh, And That’s Not To Mention That … “Bank run” took on an old, new meaning Runway extension was already in focus: flat is the new up (Too soon?) https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194
  • 5. Thought From The Founder of Sequoia Capital “All companies that go out of business do so for the same reason – they run out of money.” -- Don Valentine Valentine was a quote machine, see here for a taste: https://somethingventured.com/2007/11/wisdoms-of-sequ/ See here for a 75-page interview, part of an oral history of Silicon Valley: https://digitalassets.lib.berkeley.edu/roho/ucb/text/valentine_donald.pdf
  • 6. What’s a Startup To Do? ● Extend your runway ○ Cut burn ○ Venture debt (best set up before you need it for quick cord pull) ○ Inside round (extension round) ○ New round (clean or structured) – beware a “dirty terms sheet” ● Make a plan to “re-earn” your last-round valuation ○ Roughly, how can we double ARR before we run out of cash? ● Enable the next round, likely in 18-24 months ○ Focusing on the metrics that matter (in the new world) ○ “Tramps like us, baby, we were born to run.” See Balderton webinar on growth/burn: https://www.balderton.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Growth-and-burn-upload-2.pdf See this post which predicts recovery to be more slog than blip https://buckonsoftware.substack.com/p/the-software-slog
  • 7. The Metrics That Matter Metric ● ARR growth ● Free cashflow margin ● Rule of 40 score ● Subscription gross margin ● Burn multiple ● ARR/FTE ● CAC ratio ● CAC payback period ● NRR (net retention rate) ● GRR (gross retention rate) Question It Answers ● Are you an interesting investment? ● At what rate do you generate free cashflow? ● What’s your balance of growth and cashflow? ● How efficiently do you run the service? ● How efficiently do you build the ARR base? ● What’s your ARR productivity per head? ● How much do you spend to acquire a $1 of new ARR? ● How long does it take to get that paid back? ● What happens to customers, once acquired (net)? ● What happens, gross (before expansion)? = matters now, more, or earlier as a result of the new environment
  • 8. First, What’s Obviously Missing Here? ● Churn and lifetime value analysis ○ Churn rate ○ Customer lifetime (CLT or LT) ○ Lifetime value (LTV) ○ LTV/CAC ratio (see https://kellblog.com/2014/07/30/the-ultimate-saas-metric-ltv-cac/) ● I believe these are flawed metrics ○ See my presentation, Churn is Dead, Long Live NDR, for a detailed explanation ● Net: unrealistic lifetimes erode credibility of LTV analysis (e.g., 20-year LT for a 3-year-old startup) ● I believe these metrics are being replaced by NRR and GRR, so over time their relevance will decrease ● That said, many VCs may still track them so you should still calculate for the foreseeable future ○ Though, once shown NRR and GRR, the smartest VCs may not ask
  • 9. ARR Growth ● The top metric in the old world and new ○ Are you an interesting investment? ● The question isn’t default alive vs. dead; it’s default investable vs. un-investable ● Nine box for cash-burning companies → ○ If you’re generating cash, it changes everything ● Beware the Zombie Zone ○ <20% growth starts to be un-investable ○ Expected growth also an inverse function of size ● Beware the Extinction Zone ○ <12m runway likely not enough to endure storm ○ See Tom Loverro Twitter thread
  • 10. Free Cashflow Margin ● Free cashflow (FCF) is one of several candidate bottom-line measures ○ Net income, operating income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, … ● FCF seems to be winning out as today’s preferred bottom-line metric ○ The most frequent balancing-metric used in R40 calculations = <something-growth> + FCF margin ● Definition: Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that your company generates, or loses, after netting out its COGS, operating, and capital expenses, and adding back non-cash expenses. ○ Notably, it adds back stock-based compensation (SBC), which is somewhat controversial ○ It also adds back depreciation and amortization (D&A), the DA in EBITDA. ● FCF margin = FCF / revenue
  • 11. Why Free Cashflow Margin Matters “SaaS companies command high valuations because, at scale, they can print money with 30% FCF margins.” -- @OnlyCFO The Potential To Do This The Progression Towards There
  • 12. Rule of 40 Score (R40) ● Attempt to balance growth and profit ● R40 score = ARR growth + FCF margin (private) ● R40 score = revenue growth + FCF margin (public)* ● Idea is that R40 can better predict valuation multiple (e.g., EV/revenue) better than growth alone ● That happens not to be true today ○ R^2 of EV/NTM rev and R40 = 0.25 ○ R^2 of EV/NTM rev and NTM growth = 0.35 ○ See appendix ● Nevertheless, this will be an important go-forward metric * Some people (e.g., Meritech) calculate R40 score for public companies using implied ARR growth instead. Source: Meritech Benchmarks
  • 13. Subscription Gross Margin ● Subscription gross margin = subscription gross profit / subscription revenue ● Measures efficiency of running the SaaS service ● Want to be in the 70-80% range ● Some debate about what costs go into COGS, e.g., ○ Onboarding services, if bundled ○ Customer success, as a function of role ○ See this The SaaS CFO post for details ● Has a strong influence on CAC Payback Period Source: RevOps^2 SaaS Benchmarks 2022
  • 14. Burn Multiple ● Burn multiple = net burn / net new ARR ○ Net new ARR = new ARR – churn ARR ● How much cash does the company burn to increase the ARR base by $1 in a period ● Kind of all-in CAC ratio done on a net-new ARR basis ● An overall efficiency metric ● A predictor of cash required to hit a certain ARR level ● When done on inception-to-date basis (and inverted), this becomes BVP’s cash conversion score. https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-burn-multiple-51a7e43cb200
  • 15. ARR/FTE ● ARR per full-time equivalent (FTE) ● An overall productivity measure ● Done an implied basis for public companies ● Public median: $305K ● Private median: ~$160K (at ~$30M) ○ Heavily a function of size, see Appendix. Source: Meritech Benchmarks
  • 16. CAC Ratio ● CAC ratio = S&M expense (prior quarter) / new ARR (this quarter) ● How much do we spend to acquire $1 of new ARR? ● Variables ○ Net-new vs. new? ○ Phase shift or not, by what length? ○ GAAP or cash basis? ○ Blended or segmented? ○ See this breakdown by David Spitz ● My preference ○ New ARR -- net new is a compound metric and I can learn about churn elsewhere ○ Phase shift by 1 quarter, standard. ○ Cash basis, de-amortize commissions Source: RevOps^2 SaaS Benchmarks 2022
  • 17. CAC Payback Period (CPP) ● How many months of subscription gross margin to pay back the cost of customer acquisition? ● My shortcut calculation ○ CPP = (CAC ratio / subscription GM) * 12 ● A risk metric, not a return metric or efficiency metric ● Payback period = how long is my money on the table ○ They say nothing about what happens after payback ○ Say you have 12-month CPP and 100% churn rate? Source: RevOps^2 SaaS Benchmarks 2022
  • 18. NRR ● What happens, all in, to a cohort of customers in a year? ● Net revenue retention (NRR) rate = value-today (year-ago cohort) / value-year-ago (year-ago cohort) ○ Simple to calculate; hard to game ○ Best not calculated via shortcuts (starting + new – churn / starting) ○ But instead via two snapshots ● Avoid survivor bias ○ Value-today (today cohort) / value-year-ago (today cohort) ● Awesome when combined with detailed cohort charts ○ See appendix Source: RevOps^2 SaaS Benchmarks 2022
  • 19. GRR ● What happens, excluding expansion, to a cohort of customers in a year? ● Gross revenue retention (NRR) rate = value-today (year-ago cohort excluding expansion) / value-year- ago (year-ago cohort) ● Basically, a new and improved way of looking at churn rate ○ Expansion can’t hide shrinkage ● Was rarely discussed during the heyday but strongly gaining attention now ● Avoid survivor bias ○ Value-today (today cohort) / value-year-ago (today cohort) Source: RevOps^2 SaaS Benchmarks 2022
  • 20. Conclusions ● The world has changed ● The SaaS metrics that matter going forward include some of the ones that have always mattered … ● But have added a few new ones along the way ● I don’t think we’re in a brief blip phase where 2021 will return anytime soon ● I think we’re at the start of an extended back-to-basics phase with a focus on building real businesses ● I wish you all the best of luck in navigating this transition ● Thank you to all sources, particularly RevOps Squared, for your benchmark data
  • 21. People To Follow, Sites To Use SaaS Business ● General and go-to-market ○ SaaStr (Jason Lemkin) ○ Kellblog (Dave Kellogg) ○ Tomasz Tunguz ○ Next Big Teng (Janelle Teng) ○ Scaling to $100M (BVP) ● Sales performance ○ Balderton Founder’s Guide to B2B Sales ○ Benchsights (David Spitz) ○ RepVue (Twitter) ● CFOs on SaaS ○ OnlyCFO ○ The SaaS CFO (Ben Murray) SaaS Metrics, Operational and Company ● Private companies ○ RevOps^2 (Ray Rike) ○ KeyBanc SaaS report ○ OpexEngine ● Public companies ○ Meritech public comparables ○ Clouded Judgement (Jamin Ball) ○ Meritech S-1 breakdowns (Alex Clayton)
  • 22. Q&A
  • 23. Thank you. Dave Kellogg https://twitter.com/kellblog www.kellblog.com davekellogg@mail.com Reach Out! Balderton invests only in Europe, but a dual headquarters can potentially qualify
  • 25. Second-Order Metrics Metric ● NPS (net promoter score) measures CSAT, ideally by role ○ Not really a hard investment metric but certainly useful operationally ● Employee NPS (eNPS) in conjunction with Glassdoor reviews to measure employee satisfaction ● Funnel metrics ○ Cost/oppty = variable cost of an oppty, useful in segment and channel analysis ○ Cost/deal = ditto ○ Sales-accepted-oppty to close rate (what % of oppties do you close?) ○ ASP (average sales price), compare to cost/deal ○ Quota attainment – see @repvue data, my rule of thumb is 80% @ 80% on the year is good ● CCS (cash conversion score) –inception-to-date burn efficiency with regression to VC IRR ● RPO (remaining performance obligation) – value of contracted but not prepaid long-term contracts ○ Popular public-company SaaS metric ● DEV and QCR density – percent of ENG that codes, percent of SALES with incremental (“real”) quota It’s worth understanding these and deciding the extent to which you want to goal and track
  • 26. Excerpted from this OnlyCFO SaaS World blog post
  • 28. RevOps Squared showing ARR/FTE for private companies as strongly a function of size
  • 29. ChartMogul example of a detailed cohort analysis See here