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  1. 1. Access to Scientific Information Past, Present, and Future Michael J. Kurtz Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
  2. 2. Research Communication is Changing•After WWII Maxwell/Pergammon –Publishers sell paper journals to libraries –Publishers create journals according to market –Publishers make profit –Libraries satisfy scientists•This model worked for 60 years
  3. 3. What is at Risk? drives Research Innovation 4% dr dri iv ve es s EconomyThe Future of the World!
  4. 4. What does 4% per year mean?•Population growth ~1.7%•Per capita growth 2.3%•After 60 years per capita GDP 4 times•If 2.5% per year then 0.8% per capita•Then after 60 year a 60% rise in GDP/person Changes in the rate of growth have profound consequences
  5. 5. The Value of Research•High yield crops•Transistor•DNA•Bone marrow transplant•2.7K background radiation•Giant Magnetoresistance --- Moore’ Law s
  6. 6. Beyond the JournalScientific Communication for Today An Example from Astrophysics
  7. 7. Astronomer CDS/NED ADSData Centers Journals arXiv Data Links Data Links VO
  8. 8. Some New Directions•myADS-arXiv an Open Access Virtual Journal•Protein Data Bank (Borne & Fink) data mining journals into a structured DB•Work Flow/Provenance Systems capture the exact details of data reduction for publication and reuse (VisTrails, Freire)
  9. 9. Freire, VisTrails, 2007
  10. 10. Facts & Fallaciesabout Open Access
  11. 11. 1. Money will be saved•Publication costs are 1% of research costs, less than yearly uncertainties in funding agency budgets•Large efficiency increases due to digital communications (~7% in astronomy)•4% growth breaks budgets over time•The funding model is broken, but the new technologies will still have to be paid for
  12. 12. Green versus Gold• Papers appear free in • Papers appear free in local/central repositories journals• PDF mainly, no additional • Full formatting options formatting • A single system• Journals separate system • Requires (unknown)• No solution to the funding solution to the funding problem, no cost for author problem (author pays?) or reader • Funding agency driven• Can happen very quickly (direct vs indirect cost)• Opposed by publishers and • Accepted by publishers scientific societies
  13. 13. Green: IR Mandates(NIH, Harvard, … ) S. Harnad & A. Swan
  14. 14. Green: CR - arXivP. Ginsparg
  15. 15. Gold: Author Pays (Page Charges)
  16. 16. Gold: Consortium Pays The SCOAP3 model A consortium sponsors HEP publications and makes them Open Access by re-directing subscription money. Today: (funding bodies through) libraries purchase journal subscriptions to (indirectly) support the peer-review service and to allow their users to read• Tomorrow: funding bodies and libraries contribute to SCOAP3, which pays centrally for the articles. S. Mele
  17. 17. 2. OA Increases Citations•If all OA: no changed•OA articles are 2 to 1 more cited than non-OA•This is NOT caused by financial considerations•The best authors post their best work•Early Access via arXiv•80-20 rule
  18. 18. 2½ OA Increases Reads•True, but …•Most new reads are casual•Does not measurably effect citation
  19. 19. The Immediate Cost•The discovery not made•Science is highly non-linear•We do not know who will discover the next big thing –Cross-disciplinary work? – Inner city MD with patients? –Theorists with pencils? –…
  20. 20. The Cost of Doing Nothing•The most important intellectual work of the 20th century was done by a junior clerk in the Swiss patent office•Today he would not be able to access the on-line journals•What work is not being done now because a junior engineer in an Indonesian shoe factory cannot read The Physical Review (or Cell or … ) on her lunch break?