The Future of Unmanned Undersea and Surface Vehicles

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Briefing on the technology, political and economic drivers influencing the unmanned undersea and surface vehicle markets

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The Future of Unmanned Undersea and Surface Vehicles

  1. 1. Preparing for the Future Of: Unmanned Undersea / Surface Vehicles Technology Scouting Technology Assessments Technology Forecasting Environmental Scanning Technical Expert Networks Technical Competitive Intelligence Steven M. Shaker AUVSI 2013 1
  2. 2. • • • • • • • • • • A Little About Me: Steve Shaker Technologist and Futurist Former Senior Executive with US Govt. Former Executive in Market Research firm Expert on Competitive Intelligence and International Market Research Worked on USN UUV Master Plan Served on DARPA and Intel. Community Study Panels Program Manager on USMC Unmanned Ground Vehicles Concepts of Employment Study Leader on Foreign UUV USV Technology Transfer Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems, Member of the Year 1990 Author and Speaker – War Without Men: Robots on the Future Battlefield, Pergamon-Brasseys – Unmanned Vehicle Systems: Military and Civil For The 21st Century or Beyond – The WarRoom Guide to Competitive Intelligence – Over 200 Articles on Unmanned Systems, Robotics, Advanced Technology and the Future Unmanned Systems The Futurist 2
  3. 3. Why Position For Future? • For Government: Long lead times for acquisition. Need to anticipate threat, and forecast technology to make sure investments are good ones. • For Industry: To outcompete competitors, and to better adapt to market changes. 3
  4. 4. Futurist Fun-damentals • To Be Good Futurist Must Be Good Historian – Forecasting involves taking past & current trends and projecting forward. • History is Not Enough, Must Be Able to Anticipate Departures From Past. • Can’t Truly Predict Future – Can Develop Alternative Scenarios – Can Develop Indicators to Monitor Movement Going Down a Particular Pathway. Provides Early Warning Mechanism and Foster Adaptation. – CAN INFLUENCE AND SHAPE THE FUTURE 4
  5. 5. Unmanned Maritime Vehicles Taxonomy Robots Stationary Robots: Factory Robots Unmanned Space Vehicles The Robot Kingdom Mobile Robots Unmanned Ground Unmanned Air Vehicles Vehicles Unmanned Maritime Vehicles 5
  6. 6. Unmanned Maritime Vehicles Taxonomy Unmanned Maritime Vehicle (UMV) Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (UUV) Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) Remotely Operated Surface Vehicles (ROSV) Towed (Gliders) Autonomous Surface Vehicle (ASV) Autonomous Undersea Vehicle (AUV) Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) Teleoperated The Development of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV); A Brief Summary D. Richard Blidberg, (blidberg@ausi,org) Autonomous Undersea Systems Institute, Lee New Hampshire, USA http://ausi.org/publications/ICRA_01paper.pdf Hybrid ROV (tethered of free swimming) 6
  7. 7. Smart Dumb Robot / Autonomy Continuum Dumb Robot Smart Robot Remote Control Telerobotics Teleoperated ROV Semi Autonomous Supervisory Controlled Autonomous Telepresence AUV ASV 7
  8. 8. Mobile Robotics / Unmanned Systems Basics – Key Subsystems Locomotion: How the Robot Moves through its environment Sensing: How the robot measures properties of itself and its environment Control: How the robot generates physical actions Reasoning: How the robot maps measurements into actions Communication: How the robot communicates with each other or an outside operator http://www.docslide.com/mobot-mobilerobot/# 8
  9. 9. Why I Like UMVs: Mature Healthy 2 Way Street Between Military and Commercial Sectors UUV Market Segmentation 25 % Scientific Research 25 % 50 % Oil and Gas Defense and Security Mainly ROVs when factor in just AUVs Commercial is 11 % of market but 20 % of compound annual growth rate. • Contrast to UAV and UGV where military far outpaces civil applications and funding. • UUV has robust commercial market. UAV and UGV focusing on enlarging civil, smaller commercial market. • May change with driverless cars and other new developments. 9
  10. 10. Budgets and Funding $4 B High Scenario $ 3.8 B 1,870 AUVs Duke interviews with Industry Analysts considered this 30 % Compound annual growth rate To be optimistic $3 B 887 ROVs 210 light 667 medium & heavy 1.3 M ROV days 847 ROVs per year 43 % 930 AUVs $2 B $ 1.7 B Work Class ROVs $ 1.2 B ROVs & AUVs $ 1.52 B ROVs & AUVs $1 B $891 M Work Class ROVs $850 M ROVs $ 200 M AUVs 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) and Autonomous Underwater (AUV) in the Energy Market 2012-2022 $ 920 M for USVs 40 % of UUV Market 641 Work ROVs 21 companies 560 AUVs $ 260 for USVs M2 5 % of UUV market 2012 2013 2014 2015 The World AUV Market Report 2010-2019 Most Likely Scenario $ 2.3 B $ 1.1 B for military 1144 AUVs 394 large 285 medium 463 small 2016 2017 2018 Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV) Market Report to 2015 Frost Sullivan Unmanned Systems Management Briefing 2019 2020 Study on Ocean Technologies including ROVs and AUVs Tech Trends Unmanned Maritime Systems – UUV & USV 2012 – 2020 10
  11. 11. UMV (UUV + USV) = $ 1,150 M UUV S 1,050 M 2010 ROV S 850 M USV $ 100 M Military S 50 M Commercial (Oil & Gas) S 25 M Scientific S 25 M UMV Forecasted Growth Oil & Gas $ 425 M 59 % Defense & Security $ 212.5 M 25 % Scientific $ 212.5 M 25 % Market Drivers Growing market for mini and small ROVs Due to reduced cost and greater functionality Increasing number of sensors and robotics / manipulators Being placed on vehicles 2015 ROV $ 1.7 B Military $ 100 M 50 % Hybrid ROVs (HROVs) AUV $ 2.3 B Reduction in cost of platform relative to cost of instruments AUV S 200 M 2019 AUVs becoming more cost beneficial than ROVs Increased functionality of AUVs Scientific $ 50 M 25 % Commercial $ 50 M 25 % Increase in demand for floating oil production Systems 37.5% Military $805 M 37.5% Scientific $805 M Current AUV inventory growing obsolete 25% Commercial $575 M 2020 2012 $ 250 M USV technology is maturing rapidly, and a number of USVs are marketready. USVs will have a quicker adoption than UUVs USV $ 920 M 11
  12. 12. Technology Forecasting “Backcasting Methodology” Technology Sequence Analysis • Enables determination of current state of-the-art technologies as well as derivative developments and diffusion of technology that has come out of the futurist arena. • Developed in the early 1980s by the Futures Group to analyze hypothetical future Soviet Weapon Systems. • TSA is a method that involves the statistical combination of estimates of the time required to accomplish technological steps. In general, TSA views the future as a series of interlocking, causal steps or decisions, or nodes, leading to some future state. The time between nodes is presented with probabilities. With these estimates, the time of availability of the endtarget system can be computed in terms of its probability versus time. • Can adapt this approach to understand current and projected state-of-the art, and to determine technology wild cards and game changer technology. 12
  13. 13. Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) Methodology • These techniques rely on analyzing component technologies through the use of Boolean operators, in order to assess if and when a product might come to market. The technique can also be used to identify and acquire key missing technologies in order to block a competitor. • Technology Sequence Analysis (TSA) is a method that involves the statistical combination of estimates of the time required to accomplish technological steps • Similar to PERT but can better handle alterative technologies. . 13
  14. 14. ROV Subsystem and Key Technologies ROV List all of the major subsystems that comprise the AUV 14
  15. 15. ROV Subsystem and Key Technologies TSA ROV AND Primary Sub Systems 1.2 Mechanical Systems 1.1 AND Propulsion & Thrust 1.1.3 Syntactic Foam 1.1.2.2 CCD 1.2.2.1 digital Still Camera 1.2.2.2 Fluorescent 1.1.3.2.2 Polyurethane 1.1.2.1.2 Radiation 1.2.3.1 ultrasonic Gauges 1.2.3.5 AND Propulsion 1.1.3.1 AND Electrical 1.1.3.1.1 Hydraulic 1.1.3.1.2 CTD 1.2.3.2 Control Systems 1.4 Depth Transducers 1.3.3.3 Mag Flux Gate Compass 1.2.3.4 Ducted Jet 1.1.3.1.3 Robert Christ and Robert Wernli, ROV Manual Power Source 1.1.3.2.1 Electric motor 1.1.3.2.2 Motor Controller 1.1.3.2.3 Motor Control Electronics 1.4.2 Control Station 1.4.1 OR Large Container 1.4.1.1 Umbilical 1.3.1.1 Joystick Head Mounted display 1.4.1.2 TMS 1.3.1.2 Grabber Arm 1.2..4.3 AND AND Current 1.3.2.1 Thruster Housing 1.1.3.2.4 Power Source 1.3.2 Electric Motor 1.2.4.1 Worm Gear 1.2..4.2 Thruster 1.1.3.2 OR Tether 1.3.1 AND AND/OR imaging Sonar 1.2.3.6 LED 1.1.3.2.4 Manipulators and Tools 1.2.4 Sensors 1.2.3 Cameras 1.2.2 OR Hi Intensity Discharge 1.1.3.234 OR Polyisocyan -urate 1.1.2.1.1 Lighting 1.2.1 Incandes cent 1.2.1.1 OR Rigid Polyurethane 1.1.2.1 Electrical Systems 1.3 AND Buoyancy / Flotation Foam 1.1.2 Frame 1.1.1 1.0 Gesringing Mechanism 1.1.3.251 Data 1.3.2.2 Driver Shafts 1.1.3.2.6 Inductors 1.4.2.1 Propeller 1.1.3.2.7 H-Bridge 1.4.2.2 Kort Stators 1.1.3.2.8 15
  16. 16. Benefits of Technology Sequence Analysis • For Government: – Similar to PERT but can better handle alterative technologies, thus provides more effective roadmap for our own systems development. – Ideal mechanism to examine foreign or adversary unmanned developments, and to control technology transfer mechanisms. – Serves as early warning mechanism that adversary is going down specific pathway. • For Industry: – Excellent mechanism for examining options for own systems development, and to compare and contrast with competitors systems. – Useful early warning mechanism to monitor and track competitor’s programs and technical approach. 16
  17. 17. History of Unmanned Surface and Unmanned Undersea Vehicles Technology Diffusion Manned Submersibles Submarines Torpedoes Boats/Ships UMV=UUV + USV Robotics – Mobile Robotics Other Unmanned Systems Unmanned Air Vehicles Unmanned Ground Vehicles Unmanned Spacecraft Planetary Rovers 17
  18. 18. UMV Concepts of Employment: Often Re-Invented Luppis-Whitehead 1864 – Programmed Underwater Vehicle (PUV) Al-Jazari Robot Boat 1206 AD 13th Century: Roger Bacon and Unmanned War Vessel British Electrically Controlled Boat 1885 Nikola Tesla’s Remote Controlled Boat (Telautomaton) 1893-1898 Leonardo Torres-Quevedo – Telekine 1905 US Target Vessels 1922 WW 2 Radio Controlled Explosive Laden Boats British Brennan and German Siemen Harbor Torpedoes – circa 1884-1886 Fernlenkboote FL-7 Remote Controlled Boat- 1916 USVs Environmental Sampling from A-Bomb Testing 1950s USVs for Mine Vietnam War USV Sweeping and Targets Tethered 1950s Pioneer ROV “Cutlet” ROV Developed by Royal Navy Dimitri Cable Controlled Underwater Rebikoff MOBOT – Hughes Aircraft Recovery Vehicle (CURV) 1958 - 1953 Co. and Shell 1958 18
  19. 19. Current ROVs • Approximately 641 work related ROVs currently in usage. Class Many more hobby and Inspection WorkLynx – Saab Seaeye research ROVs. • Approximately 35 ROV manufacturers Nano ROV producing 160 systems. • Commercial ROVs divided into inspection work class, medium and heavy work class. Tiny ROVS – Videoray Pro 4 Work Class ROVS – Oceaneering Maxximum World’s Largest ROV – UT-1 Ultra Trencher 19
  20. 20. Current AUVs • 630 AUVs built by 40 organizations. Only ten companies have produced ten units or more. • 75 % of existing AUVs built between 2001 and 2005 Man Portable AUV – Bluefin 9 Solar Powered (SAUV II) Remus 100 Large Vehicle AUV 20
  21. 21. Current USVs • One 2010 study listed 100 different USV systems. • A 2011 market research study listed approximately 27 different USVs that had been procured, 9 under development and another 9 whose R&D has been abandoned. Rafael Protector USV Catamaran USVs - ROAZ Remote Multi Mission Vehicle UUV Lockheed Martin C-Hunter Autonomous Surface Vehicles Ltd. 21
  22. 22. Upward Progression, Avoiding Tunnel Vision, Cliffs and Roadblocks  UUVs and USVs have made steady, incremental progress.  In commercial realm oil and gas has grown in spite of economic slow down / recession; and Deep Horizon fallout.  In military realm UUVs and USVs have growth has been much smaller than that achieved by UAVs and UGV. Dominated by asymmetric land warfare campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.  Poised for rapid expansion due to:  Economy is coming out of slump. More investment in exploration and deep water search.  Withdrawal from land conflicts (Iraq, Afghanistan). Focus on Pacific, Arctic, Persian Gulf conflicts with Naval focus.  Potential Cliffs and Roadblocks  Sequestration and drastic military cuts  Fall back into world recession  Major war with Iran? 23
  23. 23. Market Drivers and Wildcards / Game Changers Market Drivers Trends that are causing the new market to develop and why, so you understand what is causing the market to change and new opportunities to develop. Wild Cards An unpredictable or unforeseeable factor. The importance of “wild card” scenarios is not to correctly guess which surprises will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises that could occur. Game Changers A newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way 24
  24. 24. Market Drivers • Defined: Trends that are causing the new market to develop and why, so you understand what is causing the market to change and new opportunities to develop. Business Environment : Developments external to UMVs that are in the wider business, economic and Political environment that shape and influence the UMV Market. High UMV Developments: UMV technology and business Developments that further their acceptance and Transformative market penetration. Disruptive Shake-out Shuffle Low New Entrants Impact 25
  25. 25. Business Environment UMV Market Drivers: 2012 Monitoring Aggregations of Biological Organisms Arctic Resource Competition Monitoring Oceanographic and Climatic Phenomena Rise of the Pacific Rim Port Security Narco Submarine Surveillance Waterborne IEDs Adjunct to Sub Force for ISR Missions in Littoral More Oil and Gas from Deep Water Growing Appetite for Seafood Countering Piracy 26
  26. 26. Impact of Market Drivers on UUV/USV Market Growing Appetite for Seafood Monitoring Oceanographic and Climatic Phenomena Monitoring Aggregations of Biological Organisms Countering Piracy Waterborne IEDs Arctic Resource Competition More Oil and Gas from Deep Water High Rise of the Pacific Rim Transformative Adjunct to Sub Force for ISR Missions in Littoral Disruptive Shake-out Port Security Narco Submarine Surveillance Shuffle New Entrants Low Impact 27
  27. 27. Wild Cards / Game Changers • World wide economic recession, China, India and other growth engine economies decline. • Dysfunctional US political system resulting in budget sequester, major defense cuts. • Major war with Iran. • New market entrant: Chinese 28
  28. 28. Strategy for Future Conflict • Asymmetric Warfare: Special Forces + Unmanned Systems + Indigenous Forces (Regime or Opposition) – Done in Libya, Yemen, Africa (and if Iran after initial air attacks - ) Goal to avoid occupation scenarios. • Pacific: Cold War type buildup – but with more unmanned systems 29
  29. 29. Technology Drivers • Growing market for mini and small ROVs Due to reduced cost and greater functionality • Increasing number of sensors and robotics / manipulators being placed on ROVs. • Reduction in cost of ROV platform relative to cost of instruments • Growth in Hybrid ROVs - Greater Autonomy – Merger between ROV and AUV • AUVs becoming more cost effective for certain missions than ROVs • Increased functionality of AUVs • Current AUV inventory growing obsolete • USVs are becoming market ready with the technology maturing rapidly signaling a coming sea change in the overall UMV market. 30
  30. 30. Networks of Distributed Unmanned Maritime Vehicles • Sum of the total is greater than just the additive qualities of each of the systems. Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network UUVs working in Tandem with USVs for MCM USVs in Support of UUVs Hybrid ROVs (HROVs) 31
  31. 31. Biomimetic –Parallel Evolution Parallel evolution is the development of a similar trait in related, but distinct, species descending from the same ancestor, but from different clades. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_evolution As robots and unmanned systems move into environmental niches populated by biological species then certain performance characteristics will benefit by replicating their configuration and functioning. 32
  32. 32. Biomimetic Examples Robot Fish Charlie the Robo Catfish BioSwimmer Robot Lamprey Robot Lobster Robot Jellyfish 33
  33. 33. NASA DEPTHX Postulated Underwater Robot for Europa Scientists have discussed sending a robotic probe to Europa. NASA's Galileo spacecraft, launched by the space shuttle Atlantis in 1989, has found evidence of water beneath the icy surface of the Jupiter moon. DEPTHX — short for Deep Phreatic Thermal Explorer. A program designed to send an intelligent underwater robot to an ocean of liquid water believed to exist beneath the icy crust of Europa, a moon of Jupiter. Operating alone, with no instructions from Earth, such a robot would have to explore outward, mapping as it went, making educated guesses on where to find life, then testing to see if life is there. Laboratory testing of VALKYRIE sub-systems in 2010 and 2011 led to revolutionary methods for transferring massive amounts of power to the vehicle while it travels through the ice cap on its own. Independent onboard navigation and through-ice obstacle avoidance systems are among the other novel technologies being integrated into the quarterscale vehicle to be field tested in Phase 2. VALKYRIE will be equipped with an astrobiology sensor suite and will make an autonomous decision to collect a wall core sample from within the ice column. This will allow for follow-up microbiology assays to confirm the success of the vehicle's autonomous approach. Furthermore, the cryobot will deploy line sensors in the ice cap to provide a new method of long-term autonomous glacial monitoring. Sources : http://www.chron.com/business/technology/article/Underwater-robot-could-explore-ocean-on-Jupiter1519371.php#photo-1131457 http://www.stoneaerospace.com/ http://www.gahannaschools.org/EventDetails.aspx?eventid=1715 34
  34. 34. Technology Wild Cards / Game Changers Wild Cards An unpredictable or unforeseeable factor. The importance of “wild card” scenarios is not to correctly guess which surprises will occur, but to identify, where possible, important surprises that could occur. Game Changers A newly introduced element or factor that changes an existing situation or activity in a significant way What are most influential technologies that have the potential to dramatically alter the UMV market? 35
  35. 35. Technological Game Changer: 3 D Printer Factors: Since its origins in 1984 when it was called stereolithography, the technology and applications for 3 D printing has grown rapidly. Additive manufacturing involves repetitive spraying and printing of materials into a shape or component. This is much more efficient and less expensive than subtractive manufacturing which involves use of cutting, and drilling machine tools to whittle down a design or shape from a block of material. 3 D printing is like a form of teleportation, when an object can be functionally designed or scanned in one location and then faxed or emailed to another, in which it can be replicated. 3 D printing via the Internet facilitates mass customization and home-based manufacturing. The University of Southampton in the UK printed an entire Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) (except for the electric motor) and flew it successfully. Micro UAVs, servos for robots have been printed by other organizations. Implications: Can 3 D printing of UUVs and USVs dramatically reduce the cost of manufacturing? Will the supply chain impacts adversely impact certain manufacturers? Will technology transfer controls become ineffective? 36
  36. 36. Things to Do To: Enhance Market Positioning and Increase Competitiveness 37
  37. 37. SWOT Analysis 38
  38. 38. Existing Clients/ Customer Base New Customer Base Adjacent Markets NOAA Coast Guard NATO Japan Singapore Middle East ROV for US Navy Existing Products/Core Competencies NASA University Subscriptions AUVs Multiple AUVs Oceanographic Data New Products / Services 39
  39. 39. Existing Clients/ Customer Base New Customer Base Adjacent Markets – Liquid Robotics Example US Navy Coast Guard University Subscriptions USVs NOAA NASA BP Schlumberger Existing Products/Core Competencies Oceanographic Data Oil & Gas Services New Products / Services 40
  40. 40. Bluefin Diversification to Data Provider & Acquisition of Hawkes ROVs 41
  41. 41. Technology Competitive Market Intelligence • Identify competitive advantages through technological sources. • New technological developments systematically examined and effects evaluated. • Technology Scouting • Technology Assessment • Technical Strategic Analysis 42
  42. 42. Technology Scouting What technological trends are recognizable • • • • What technological trends are recognizable? Information sources for technology scouting (specialized press, research reports from universities and research establishments, patent databases, think tanks, conventions, trade fairs, competitors, etc.) Classification of technological trends on the basis of technical and commercial criteria, "strong" and "weak" signals, early warning systems, introduction of suitable structures Tools to support scouting, e.g. database tools, mind mapping - and of course the Internet Procter & Gamble's CEO Alan G. Lafley is often quoted as saying " Half the company's ideas must come from the outside. " 43
  43. 43. Technology Scouting and Insertion Mission: Develop innovative and effective processes and mechanism to identify and insert new technologies to meet corporate requirements within short timeframes. Technology Scouting: Technology Insertion: Ongoing mechanism to monitor and track new technologies and key organizations that can address corporate needs, fill gaps, and or provide new technological opportunities Develop new mechanisms to leverage, test and demo technologies that address customer needs or furnish revolutionary capabilities within very quick timeframes, beyond traditional acquisition timelines. Technology Pull: Organization pulls technology to address identified needs Methodology: Voice of the Customer (VOC): Identification of tech division requirements or gaps through interviews and surveys. Technology Push: Organization is pushed to or alerted to new technologies to take advantage of. Methodology: Environmental Scanning/ Horizon Scanning: Process of acquiring and analyzing events and trends in the business environment in which the organization operates or wants to enter. Technology Requirements: Identification of desired technical attributes, performance characteristics and capabilities. INPUTS Methodologies: Technology Export Social Networks: Develop a social network of external experts on specific technology areas, to assess and evaluate competitive technologies, products, offerings within an anonymous private network. Outside experts are witting of technical expert market research firm hosting the technology expert network, but not of investors or project sponsors. Can conduct questionnaires , surveys, And collaborative scenario analysis or virtual business technology war games. Portfolio of Desired Technologies and Partners: Methodology: Technology Benchmark Assessment: Comparison of Competitive technologies to address requirements. INPUTS Methodologies: Market Research: Using secondary sources of information and open source intelligence to spot trends, opportunities and threats. Social Media Monitoring: Using social media to identify Emerging technology trends and key influentials in those Technologies. Identification of desired technologies and corporate or organization partners providing technologies. Insertion Mechanisms: • Partner • IR&D / investment/investors • Merger & acquisitions • reverse engineering 44
  44. 44. Technology Environmental Scanning Each technology area would have its own scan, key indicators and specific metrics Secondary/Open Source Collection Online Journals Corporate Vendor Websites Technology Related Blogs Social Media Monitoring Newspapers Example Metrics: •Number of mentions •Number of followers •Key influentials •Duration and endurance • Source credibility • Source readership Association and Conference Papers And Whitepapers Business databases Scan for key indicators: • Signals of change • Discontinuities • Inflection points • Disruptive technologies • Outliers and Wildcards 45
  45. 45. Technology Assessment What technologies will decide on market success in the future? • • • Assessing the potential of new technologies (What can the technology achieve?): performance parameters, ABC analysis, applications, substitution potential (technologies), synergy potential, technology comparisons, Delphi method Description of technological development: life cycle analyses, scurves, learning curves, roadmaps Environment analyses, this means the involvement of non-technical influencing factors on the development of new technologies (political and social trends) 46
  46. 46. Technology Strategic Analysis How can competitive advantages through a technological lead be achieved? • • • • Assessing the potential of new technologies (from the view of the enterprise: what opportunities and risks can result from technologies?): portfolio analyses, substitution potential (products), new markets Competitive analysis: technological SWOT analyses, benchmarks, specific (core) competence analyses Technological scenarios Strategic implications: investment strategy, segmentation strategy, product development, performance leadership, synergy strategy, cooperation strategy 47
  47. 47. Competitive Technical Intelligence Process How can a continuous, systematic technology assessment in a company be implemented? • • • Analysis: determining goals that can be achieved with a Technical Intelligence Process, deriving demands on the process, identification of already ongoing Technical Intelligence activities and their integration into the process Design: definition of a preferably efficient process (trigger, partial processes, activities, interfaces and roles) that satisfy the demands as well as the connection with the innovationand product lifecycle management process in the business Implementation: procedure to introduce the Competitive Technical Intelligence process, aspects of change management (piloting, communication, etc.) • Primary Research • Secondary Research • Social Media Research 48
  48. 48. Technical Expert Network: Biomimetics Example Virtualization, in computing, is the creation of a virtual (rather than actual) version of something, such as a hardware platform, operating system, a storage device or network resources. Virtualization can be viewed as part of an overall trend in enterprise IT that includes automatic computing, a scenario in which the IT environment will be able to manage itself based on perceived activity, and utility computing, in which computer processing power is seen as a utility that clients can pay for only as needed. The usual goal of virtualization is to centralize administrative tasks while improving scalability and work loads Examples of Possible Requirements • Which firms are leading technology developments in biomimetics? • Which universities and faculty are leading developments in biomimetics? • What is the first likely products for biomimetics? > What are the major drivers and wildcards facing biomimetics? •What are the likely scenarios facing the biomimetic market over the next two years? Examples of technical and business social networks where experts are identified from. Sampling of Prospective In-depth Interviewees 49
  49. 49. CONTACT INFORMATION Steven M. Shaker Strategy, Future Assessments & Competitive Intelligence Email: steve.shaker@cox.net Cell: 571 274 0574 Unmanned Vehicle University Dr. (Col. Ret.) Jerry LeMieux, Executive Director / President Phone: 855-UXV-UNIV (898-8648) Fax: 800-521-3292 admissions@uxvuniversity.com www.uxvuniversity.com 50

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