Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 4
International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable ScienceAdvanced energy technology for sustainable development - Analysis of energy for sustainability- Satoshi Konishi Institute for Sustainability Science, Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University Aug.12-13, 2011 Summer School AACIMP-2011 Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine
research benefits public? Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability － As an example, economical ｅｆｆｅｃｔ of the Fusion research is analyzed － energy sales is not the only outcome of the research. →economical effect out of the market. ”Externality” is important;. － “Impact pathway” shows 4 effects of the fusion R&D. 1) The direct effect of the purchase ; The increase of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) as a measure. Input-Output table is usually used .
2) The growth of local community and its economy. Secondary and further effect of purchase. Employment. Some of these effects can be estimated with local community effect out of input-output table. Evaluation procedure is established.3) Improvement of technical capability of the industry Technical spin-offs as part of Externality. Results usually appears slow and occasional. Not obtained from the market. Contribution.4) Energy and related technology. Appears decades later. Contribution of industry is mach larger than Original R&D. Contribution to the global environment problem.
Mechanism of R&D impact International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Impact pathway Category example Direct purchace equipmentEnergy R&D ①direct construction Local Community growth community ②social employment Industrial technology Spin-offsEnergymarket ③external High-techs ④future Energy sales Energy environment technology Energy security Specific equipment
Energy research affects four paths.International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science ④commercial value of energy Market scale ③Impacts on technology In industry ②impacts on local community①Direct economicalEffect by researchInvestment 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year
Investment source International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science・various sponsors provide funding・different purpose, different phase of development・investment for research is a certain fraction of total sales →investment must yield benefit salesFission reactor case ６．２％ For R&D Basic transfer industry research Research utility institute Research 1960 Further competitiveness improvements institutes commercialization
R&D budget to total sales International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science basic R&D/ Basic applied commercial Research total sales research research development contribution Industry Chemical 5.4% 14.7% 26.0% 59.3% 40.7% ceramics 2.4% 8.1% 23.5% 68.4% 31.6% steel 1.9% 6.3% 15.7% 78.0% 22.0% Metal 1.4% 4.0% 11.0% 85.0% 15.0% machinery 4.0% 5.4% 23.0% 71.6% 28.4% electrical 5.9% 5.8% 27.4% 66.7% 33.2% Electronic/ 5.7% 2.7% 13.6% 83.8% instruments 16.3% Fine machinery 6.8% 4.0% 22.6% 73.5% 26.6% softwares 8.4% 0.7% 4.3% 95.1% 5.0%
Spin-offs from fusion research International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science superconductor microwaves Energy storage Ultra-high Fusion R&D Telecommuni- cation vacuum Ion beam PowerAnalytical materials supply divertorinstruments Semiconductor utility High temperatureSurface industry devices
Technical spin-offs International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceThe spin-off technology is studied with actual fusion R&D projectperformed in the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute.Total 66 billion Yen (inflation corrected) was spent in 40years.Products were identified (ca180)by the researchers and industry.Then their market sizes were evaluated by a third party(business consulting institute).Impact on the market is estimated to be 2.7x109 Yen.Contribution of research institute is 1.2x108 Yen.
Future Energy Market International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceMarket under environmental constraintFuture energy mix was analyzed to consider the entire market.Environmental constraint requires reduced carbon dioxideemission.Fusion will not have chance in “business as usual” scenario.Fusion electricity is estimated to have ca. 30% of global market.It is possible to supply same amount of electricity without fusion.Difference of total electricity cost corresponds a benefit of fusion.While reduction of the expense benefits consumerReduction of the electricity cost can lead to loss in GDP. This methodology can be used for any energy
Energy supply without fusion Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability・Future energy market is analyzed to fill the demand with minimal cost.・Fusion will not appear in “Business as usual” scenario.・Market can be filled without fusion. actual estimated Gton oil equivalent/year 30 Renewable hydrogen renewables 20 hydro nuclearUnconventional gas gas 10 Unconventional oil oil coal 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 year
Fusion Electricity Share Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global SustainabilityGTOE 30 Renewables Fusion20 Hydro Nuclear UnConventional Gas Gas10 UnConventional Oil Oil Coal 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Fusion is estimated to have 10% share at 2100 under environmental constraint if successfully used for electricity.
Economical impact of fusion development by the energy market till 2100. International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Electricity Fusion Fusion Electricity sales devices devices cost (domestic) (export) savingdirect 37 4.5 47.1 35Indirect 73 14 149 -effectBy I/Otable (in 1012 yen-close to 10 billion Euro or &,billion UAH. discount rate 2%, integrated from 2050 to 2100.) Question: benefit measured by GDPs?
Fusion market analysis International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceIn the sales value of electricity, 35% is generation cost.Contribution of the research is evaluated according to the currentJapanese electricity market. Fusion reactor and accompanied plant are the product of theresearch. Fusion specific devices have global export market.(on the other hand fission reactor is assumed to have difficulty inglobal market because of nuclear proliferation, fuel cycle andsocial acceptance)For the long period up to 2100, 2% discount rate was applied. - reduces to 10% as present value equivalent.
Supply chain of energy Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Social demand requirements resource waste Fuel Energy Waste supply Technology management flow Large quantity stock Energy externality Cheap price production Logistics inevitableDifference from LCA：dynamic. Not the estimation of inventory →constraints may occur with ample resource →constraints without material, by externality →market growth can be also limited.
Supply chain constraint Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global SustainabilitySupply chain limits energy sales by various reasons. Demand fund (time,place) Storage Plant construction Transport system Supply Transport energy Energy transport Productresource transport Generation sales (conversion) Time, place Transport cost Changing needs infrastructure Storage Waste Site/location disposal Storage ManagementSupply chain is a dynamic process.
Supply chain of fusion Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Fusion has some advantages (and disadvantages) Large demand Large fund City, industry Long Plant construction timeSmall quantityFuel D and Li Base load Fusion plant electricity Rare metals Advanced Safety concern technology Rad Waste Limited location disposal Management Supply chain is a dynamic process.
Limit of renewables Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons. High cost Changing demand Plant construction Transport energy Resource Solar electricityuncontrollable wind Time, place Changing needs Site/location limited Waste only from Storage Production and needed aged
Electric grid capacities Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Eastern East UTPTE Grid Japan ~270GW ~500GW ~80GW Vietnam ~8GWWestern Texas West Grid Grid Japan~140GW ~53GW Thailand ~100GW ~20GWExtremely large Grids in a countryInternationally connected GridsDelicately controlled grids - these are all exceptional in the future energy market.Electric grid is a national security issue andcannot be easily integrated. Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 (2002)Stability of the grid is region specific.
Forecast of power demand International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science * Source JBIC report 18 Thailand Vietnam Peak Power (MW) Peak Power (MW) Cambodia Lao Peak Power (MW) Peak Power (MW)
Difference in Grid Composition Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 35 Grid Capacity 30 Nuclear output(GW) 25 Hydro Kansai, night ： 14GWe 20 Fossil fire Kansai, daytime ： 30GWe 15 Thai ： 15GWe 10 5 Change of the Load 0 200MW, 200MW/sec Kansai,night Kansai,day Thai Composition of grid 0.00 -0.02 ・Large and fast load affects grid.frequency(Hz) -0.04 -0.06 Small capacity cannot respond. Kansai, Night -0.08 -0.10 Kansai, daytime -0.12 Thai ・Grid in Thailand is smaller than -0.14 Kansai, but has more capacity to -0.16 accept fusion load. 0 10 20 30 time(sec) Frequency change
Influence to the power grid International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science The grid capacity of 10-20GW is required to supply startup power of regular size fusion reactor. The influence also depends on the grid configuration, as response time of each power station is different. Response speed Hydro fast 10%/min Oil 5%/min Coal slow 1%/min Nuclear not allowed now Solar/Wind No responseFusion requires large power Can small grid respond?
Fusion role in the grid Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Thailand Japan Solar/Wind Solar/Wind Solar/Wind Solar/Wind Coal Oil Fission Fission Fusion Gas Fusion Coal Coal Coal Hydro Oil Oil Oil Gas Gas Gas Hydro Hydro HydroFusion will respond to increased demand in developing countryWhile only replaces old stations in Japan.
Technology selection Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability3 stages of selection by feasibility• Technology is evaluated by technically, socially and economically. These 3 stages sometimes overwrap.• In each stages selection criteria and stakeholder are different. Technical-researchers Socialーgovernment, society,public commercialーbusiness, company Technical feasibility consumer Technical success Researcher• Due to the difference in institute Social feasibility criteria, winners could be Social value Government different. Commercial publicCost is not the only measure. benefitfeasibility company
Selection by various reasons Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Variety of fission reactors developedTemperature coolant Thermal Efficiency CO2 CalderHall 1956 Shippingport 300 Obninsk(RBMK) PW R1 9 5 7 V BW R NPD 30% 1954 1962 Light water 1957 Heavy water SGHWR EBR1 、 EL-4 1968 1951 1966 Molten salt FERM I 40% 1 9 6 3 （ 商用） 500 Liquid metal A GR 1976 800 Helium 50%
Summary of fusion market International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science○Fusion is suitable for growing economy after 2050. ・large scale ・unban electricity supply ・little problem of fuel cycle ・self-reliance, free from resource constraint○ Development of advanced system is a key issue for fusion・economy – compete with renewables and fossil with CCS・environment - low activation, short life of rad-waste○fusion provides significant contribution for global environment ・carbon free electricity ・replaces fossil based fuel.