Efsec fse-2007


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Opening speech at Efsec-fse 2007

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Efsec fse-2007

  1. 1. Pervasive Computing and the Grid: the birth of a computational Exoskeleton Dubrovnik, 3-7 September 2007 Roberto Siagri Eurotech Spa President & CEOESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07
  2. 2. Communication Overcomes ComputingThe framework is changing now.The Internet is redefining software.The Internet is redefining the role ofcomputing and communication ………I still don’t understand the framework.I don’t think any of us really do. Andy Grove former INTEL CEOBut some aspects of it are pretty clear.It’s proven not to be computing basedbut communication based. ESEC/FSE from : “Decisions Don’t Wait”, Dubrovnik ‘07 2 Harvard Management Update. 2003
  3. 3. Technological “Cephalization” of the Earth"No one can deny thata network (a world network) ofeconomic and psychic affiliations isbeing woven at ever increasingspeed which envelops andconstantly penetrates more deeplywithin each of us. Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955)With every day that passes it Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,becomes a little more impossible for Developmental Systems Theoristus to act or think otherwise thancollectively." ESEC/FSE Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 Dubrovnik ‘07 3
  4. 4. The is your Trend FriendESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07 4
  5. 5. Meta-Trends in Technological AccelerationMoores Law Miniaturization Processing, Storage, ... Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 monthsMetcalfs Law Interconnection Value of a network increases with the square of the number of connections (or according to the Zips law is less then the square)Gilders Law Quantization Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 monthsNegropontes Law Digitization Superiority of "bits over atoms" Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas are ultimate raw material ESEC/FSE adapted from: John Smart Dubrovnik ‘07 5 "Acceleration Studies Foundation"
  6. 6. according to Gordon Bell“Everything will be in Cyberspace …. …and covered by a hierarchy of computers! ” Smart Dust Body Continent Home Region Car Building CampusWorld Fractal (scale-free) Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms ESEC/FSE Adapted from the original Dubrovnik ‘07 6 by Gordon Bell 1998
  7. 7. Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps) Pierre Teilhard de Chardin Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 Phase TransitionGeosphere/Geogenesis(Chemical Substrate)Biosphere/Biogenesis(Biological-Genetic Substrate)Noosphere/Noogenesis(Memetic-Technologic Substrate) The noosphere is a "planetary thinking network" an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback and planetary communication ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 7
  8. 8. Less isESEC/FSE MoreDubrovnik ‘07 8
  9. 9. "Ephemeralization“ i.e. Less is More Malthus was wrong. He forgot a factor: our continual ability to do more and more with less and less. "Ephemeralization" America telephoned Europe: - Not long ago via 175,000 tons of transatlantic copper cables. - Now R. Buckminster Fuller a single 1/4-ton communications satellite 1895 - 1983 does the job better, faster, more clearly, inventor, architect, with more bandwidth and a fraction of the energy. engineer, mathematician, poet and cosmologist. Transistors are an example of doing almost anything with practically nothing, …. because of the software!ESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07
  10. 10. This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness” andMatter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density. ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 10
  11. 11. Miniaturization (MEST compression) : the Engine of Innovation “All progressions are from material to abstract…” “The principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” R. Buckminster Fuller Matter Energy Information Space Time The percentage of information in every new product or new service is asymptotically moving to 100%.The cost of information at every level is subject to a deflection of approx. 50% per year. ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 11
  12. 12. Saturation of Global Energy Use:Energy Consumption Per Capita Later developers, using “advanced technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP. we keep on doing more and more with less and less ESEC/FSE adapted from: John Smart Dubrovnik ‘07 12 "Acceleration Studies Foundation"
  13. 13. Euro / kilo Gold is 15000 € Kg • F22 Raptor 6500€ Kg Branded Notebook 1000€ Kg • Fashion dress 5000€ Kg Ferrari Car 120€ Kg • Branded Smart Phone 4500€ Kg Business car 30€ Kg • Branded PDA 3500€ Kg Utility car 15€ Kg ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 13
  14. 14. MEST Compression:a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Facts: • Machines are more MEST efficient with each new generation. • Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the developed world. • Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service Economies. Physics: • Future computational technology requires little or no energy: – Nanomolecular computing – Quantum computing, – Reversible logic, – …etc. “More, Better, with Less.” ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 14
  15. 15. Computers: Future Opportunities from NanosystemsSugar cube sized computer (1 cm3) having 1015 MIPS(*) Type Qty MIPS Total MIPS Supercomputers 103 107 1010 Mainframes 105 105 1010 Workstations 106 104 1010 PCs 108 102 1010 Embedded Systems 1010 101 1011 Total 2x 1011 Fudge Factor x 50 Equivalent current computing power 1013 Roughly 100 times more powerful than all the computing power currently in existence ESEC/FSE (*) Eric Drexler - Nanosystems Dubrovnik ‘07 15
  16. 16. Plenty of Room at the Bottom“… there is plenty of room to make them [computers] smaller.There is nothing that I can see in the physical law that says the computerelements cannot be made enormously smaller than they are now. …” R. Feynman, 1959: Annual meeting of the American Physical Society Non reversible logic in Classical Physics Theory Assume a power dissipation of 1W and a volume of 1cm3 How many bits/second can be transferred? 1018 bit/sec This is roughly the equivalent of 109 Pentiums! ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 16
  17. 17. Ultimate (zetta-wattaflop) Computing Machine according to Seth Lloyd Quantum Physics Theory a 1-kg computer compressed to the black-hole limit R= 2Gm/c2 ~ 10–27 m can perform : 1051 ops/sec on its 1016 bits, and store about : 1031 bits.” Modern parallel computers in a few years will achieve 1015 ops/sec with a pace of Moore’s law: x2 every 1.5 years technology needs~ 250 years to reach these limits Seth LloydESEC/FSE “Ultimate physical limits to computation”Dubrovnik ‘07 17 Nature, 2000
  18. 18. Value... Superiority of bits over atoms Value Bits Atoms Abundance ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 18
  19. 19. Cyberspace PervasiveUbiquitous & Computing Exoskeleton ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 19
  20. 20. Pervasive GRID: A COMPUTATIONAL EXOSKELETONComputers are becoming pervasive and ubiquitous• Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the Internet at all times• Massive computation available on demand through the GRID• Tiny Computers embedded in – the environment, – our clothing, – our body• Augmented real reality ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 20
  21. 21. Humans vs. Technology (i.e.:Machines) In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.No other credible long term futures have been proposed.“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” Brian Arthur, SFI ESEC/FSE adapted from: John Smart Dubrovnik ‘07 21 "Acceleration Studies Foundation"
  22. 22. Smart’s Laws of Technology1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development.3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. ESEC/FSE from: John Smart Dubrovnik ‘07 22 "Acceleration Studies Foundation"
  23. 23. Digital World : Natives vs. ImmigrantsDigital Natives Digital ImmigrantsHOMO ZAPPIENS HOMO SAPIENS• twitch speed • conventional speed• multi tasking • mono tasking• non-linear approaches • linear approaches• processing discontinued information • processing single information flows• iconic skills • reading skills• connected • stand alone• collaborative • competitive• active • passive• learning by playing • separating learning and playing• instant payoff • patience• fantasy • reality• technology as friend • technology as foe courtesy: Mark Prensky ESEC/FSE source Wim Veen Dubrovnik ‘07 23
  24. 24. Web 2.0 from user centric (Web 1.0) to human centric• Users benefit from – Collaboration – Sharing – Socialization• Users are Prosumers and Consumers Produce Consume Contents Contents Mashups Mashups ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 24
  25. 25. A simple definition of Web 2.0Web 2.0 is the commonterm used to refer to the new generation of web applications and systems that enable community or many-to-many relationships. reported by Kevin Evans on Off the Rails ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 25
  26. 26. M2M 2.0 Machines are producers and consumersThey do things that users can do, but better: • generate XML, RSS, GeoRSS • blog • … Web 2.0 unifies data from Machines into a web platform that is delivered to consumers however they want through mashups ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 26
  27. 27. What is Pervasive Computing ?It means to make data and application services available to any authorized user anywhere, anytime, and on any device. HPC clusters QoS Network Appliances Mobile Net-App Mobile Computers Wearable Computer Devices Networks of wireless Body/Environmental Sensors It means to create an environment where “everything” is acomputing node which communicates wirelessly and interacts seamlessly with humans. ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 27
  28. 28. What is a Grid?In the beginning ….• persistent networked environments integrating geographically distributed supercomputers, large databases, and high end instruments NASA definition ESEC/FSE The Grid, Dubrovnik ‘07 28 ed. Ian Foster, Carl Kesselman, 1999
  29. 29. Now….. combining Pervasive computing & the GRID“ Grid computing and pervasive computing are two visions of the future that really do seem to be upon us, and so surely they must be investigated together rather than in isolation.” ESEC/FSE De Roure, 2003 Dubrovnik ‘07 29
  30. 30. Pervasive + Grid“Pervasive computing is the means by which the digital world of the Grid couples into our physical world.” TCP/IP TCP/IP Real World Real World (Sensors Nets & (Sensors Nets & Actuators) Actuators) HPCs & Clusters Embedded & Mobile PCs“In other words, pervasive computing provides the manifestation of the Grid in the physical world.” ESEC/FSE De Roure 2003 Dubrovnik ‘07 30
  31. 31. a Hierarchical PERVASIVE Computing GRID“ Someday soon, more than one million businesses will be connected to more than one billion people by one trillion devices...” ID R G“...Its alreadybeginning to happen …But well see even moretremendous growth whenintelligence becomes embedded,whenESEC/FSE virtually everything Quote from:becomes a computing device”. Dubrovnik ‘07 31 L.V. Gerstner, former IBM CEO
  32. 32. PERVASIVE (Netcentric) HEALTH CARE SCENARIO HPC HPC Clusters Smart Sensors Wearable Systems Home Care & Mobile PC Assisted Living Computers ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 32
  33. 33. Digital Technologies for a better World “ The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it ”Mark Weiser "The Computer for the 21st Century", Scientific American - 1991 Computer on board System on chip System on board Computer “mote” ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 33
  34. 34. What is Ubiquitous Computing ? a Bio-Physical Extension• Traditional computing has stretched the limitations of the mind• Pervasive and Ubiquitous computing is extending the reach of both mind and body• Ubiquitous computing “enhances” our senses ….but the underlying (GRID) hardware infrastructure cannot be perceived (“invisible”) ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 34
  35. 35. Human Centric vs Computer Centric“ There is more information available at our fingertips during a walk in the woods than in any computer system, yet people find a walk among trees relaxing and computers frustrating. Machines that fit the human environment, instead of forcing humans to enter theirs, will make using a computer as refreshing as taking a walk in the woods.” Mark Weiser, 1991 ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 35
  36. 36. ....now what’s about new designsESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07 36
  37. 37. Ask the customers? ……….. Are you crazy? “If you ask the public what they think they will need, you will always be behind in this world. Akio Morita, You will never catch up Sony founder unless you think one to ten years in advanceand create a market for the items you think the public will accept at that time.” ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 37
  38. 38. The Developmental Spiral• Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 years• Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 years• Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 years• Agricultural Age 7,000 years• Empires Age 2,500 years• Scientific Age 380 years (1390-1770)• Industrial Age 180 years (1770-1950)• Information Age 70 years (1950-2020)• Symbiotic Age 30 years (2020-2050)• Autonomy Age 10 years (2050-2060)• Tech Singularity ≈ 2060 ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 38 source "Acceleration Studies Foundation"
  39. 39. The Symbiotic Age: a coevolution between Humans and Technology• A time when computers “speak our language.”• A time when technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires.• A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.• A time when we begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.” ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 39
  40. 40. while Waitingfor the SymbioticESEC/FSE AgeDubrovnik ‘07 40
  41. 41. If time = money... ...then so does position .. & contest POSITION & CONTEXT AWARESystems Positioning is becoming (in economic terms) as essential as communication networks ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 41
  42. 42. ESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07 42
  43. 43. Zypad a Wearable Info Appliance• Unique technology• Significant Competitive advantage• High acceptance in the marketplace• New class of value-added services provided to customersWrist worn wearable Computer in Ambient intelligenceMain Features: Touch screen, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth.Optional functions: Zigbee or RFID reader.Operating systems: Linux or Win CE. ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 43
  44. 44. a family of Wrist Wearable Computers ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 44
  45. 45. A WORLD of SMART ThingsSOLO, a research project of a wearable smart thing.A pendant-like device for personal affinity matching and personal data management. the NET the NET sealed box w/ contactless power supply; communication via ZigBee Harvesting and dissemination (IEEE 802.4.15) of datatrips among users and visual Comm. via RGB Led through the internet ESEC/FSE ETHlab with the support of Sw: P. L. Montessore et al., DIEGM UniUD Dubrovnik ‘07 45 Hw.: A. Abramo et al. DIEGM UniUD
  46. 46. What’s about Sw ?ESEC/FSEDubrovnik ‘07 46
  47. 47. Problems: Software Complexity Service Oriented ProgrammingProductivity Structured Programming Assembly Complexity and Size ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 47
  48. 48. 1.2 Billion Cell Phones Can’t be Wrong!From a ’90s legacy point of view the Java programming languagesuffers from a series of misconceptions:• It’s slow• Hard to learn• Too much of a resource hog• Hard to interface to custom hardware.….but from a practical “ this stuff just works and you should really look at it”point of view :• Fast enough• Rapid code development from a large repository of existing code• Memory management• Write once, run anywhere (It is a virtual machine)• Network and WEB centric• IT Aware• Available frameworks (OSGi)• ….. ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 48
  49. 49. Tools• An IDE : ECLIPSE• A language : JAVA• a SOA for Devices : SODA• and the WEB 2.0 technologies ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 49
  50. 50. …. the Challenge• Society and Computing will form an evolutionary symbiosis• Research has to guide and focus the evolution to the goal while dealing with uncertainty and privacy UltimatelyThe systems have autonomously to adapt to satisfy evolving human needs ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 50
  51. 51. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION with Software you can do new, interesting, creative and enjoyable things ESEC/FSE Dubrovnik ‘07 51