Spohrer, J (2017) Better Building Blocks. URL: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/silicon_vikings_20170207_v2
One of my heroes and mentors – Doug Engelbart (1925-2013)
Doug and I had several conversations about the relationship between augmentation theory and service science. I wish we could have had many more.
Before connecting augmentation theory to service science, I have to travel through some technical areas that are closer to my first two degrees physics at MIT and artificial intelligence at Yale university – but I promise you, I will connect this to service science and smarter service system research agenda….
Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become?
If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them.
Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play?
Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems.
By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains.
Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.
However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
Moving from science fiction to what exists today in 2016 – in the marketplace, we can see that more and more companies are developing intelligent assistants and augmented intelligence systems with technological components – in the cloud, on smartphones, in robots, and in cars, or as embedded in existing communication apps or other devices that people use when interacting with others or the world.
Here is what I tell students....
... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:
(0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy; - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope") - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info
(1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions
(2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions
(3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)
(4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.
(5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university
In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era...
In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook....
In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....
Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
People take 10 million minutes of experience to go from conception to adult in today’s society with rights and responsibilities.
Dogs, and some other biological cognitive systems, make the journey in about 500,000 minutes of experience (half a million minutes of experience).
Building an expert BCS takes 10,000 hours of deliberate practice, or around 2 million minutes of experience.
Building an expert DCS is still very heard work, and the rule-based approach of expert systems can be brittle and the bottom-up data-driven deep learning approaches can take an incredible amount of data.
By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
Silicon vikings 20170307 v2
Better Building Blocks
Jim Spohrer (IBM)
Silicon Vikings, Feb 7, 2017
3/7/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1
1956 1976 1996 2016 2036 2056
Personal Reflections: Telephones I have known…
Programming building blocks are getting better
Maine MIT, Verbex, Yale Apple IBM
My first program
Kid’s today get AI components
Better Building Blocks…
3/7/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 5
By 2036, the world changes…
• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• “How to use cognitive assistants to be a better professional X.”
• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”
• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
• Cognitive mediator knows a person better (in some ways)
than they know themselves (identity & responsibility)
• 2046 & 2056
• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”
• 2046: 10 digital workers each; 2056: 100 digital workers each
From data to intelligence:
10 million minutes of experience to build adult
3/7/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 7
From data to intelligence:
2 million minutes of experience from novice to expert
3/7/2017 Understanding Cognitive Systems 8
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government