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M maa rrss 20130921 v2


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Future of Manufacturing a Service Science Perspective

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M maa rrss 20130921 v2

  1. 1. The Future of Manufacturing: A Service Science Perspective Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer Director, IBM University Programs October 3, 2013 Thursday 2-5pm at San Jose State University For SJSU Lecture to Executive Delegation
  2. 2. Welcome to the new age of platform technologies and smart service systems for every sector, including manufacturing
  3. 3. Who I am • Education & Startups – First Quarter Century – 1974-78 MIT Physics, Bachelor of Science – 1978-82 Startup: Verbex (employee #60, bought by Exxon) – 1982-89 Yale Computer Science, PhD • Specializing in Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Science • Consultant for Intelligent Tutoring System startups – 1989 University of Rome LaSapienza in Italy, visiting scholar • Silicon Valley & Big Businesses – Second Quarter Century – 1989-98 Apple Computer • Distinguished Engineer Scientist Technologist • Learning Technologies (e.g., EOE, E/W Authoring Tools, WorldBoard, etc.) – 1998-Present IBM • User Experience Research (1998-99) • Founding CTO IBM Venture Capital Group (1999-2002) • Founding Director IBM Service Science Research Group (2002-07) • Innovation Champion & Director Global University Programs (Since 2007) • ISSIP, non-profit Service Innovation Professionals, Board of Directors (Since 2012)
  4. 4. Today’s Talk • Vision: MMaaRRSS – Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System – XaaS = Everything as a Service (value co-creation processes) – Near zero waste, everything is an input to some process – Doubling size of economy requires not only higher productivity construction, but higher productivity deconstruction • Trends: What’s In The News – McKinsey, Servitization, My Tweets and Summary • Innovation Framework: To get us there… and beyond!!! – Near Future: Platform Technologies and Smart Service Systems – Far Future: Utility Fog – More on Silicon Valley, IBM, Universities, and Smarter Planet – More on Service Science, Service Innovation, and
  5. 5. Vision: MMaaRRSS • Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System – “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.” – Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste) • The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
  6. 6. Tomorrow: “I am the block that will be made into product X for customer Y.” • (June 2013) – The “Internet of Things” and the future of manufacturing • Industrial Revolutions: Manufacturing Tech Platforms – 1. Steam Engine – 2. Conveyor Belt – 3. IT and Automation (Phase 1) – 4. Internet of Things/Logistics (Phase 2) • “After the fourth industrial revolution, there will no longer be a difference between information and materials, because products will be inextricably linked to “their” information.”
  7. 7. Today: Servitization • Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
  8. 8. Servitization • Start with ay traditional product that is sold to customers • Make the product part of a smart service system – Instrument it (sensors) – Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across their life-cycles – Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency, maintenance, etc. – Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing – Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability – Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability • The product becomes a platform technology for innovative university startups that teach about it, and research it
  9. 9. My tweets • rethinking categories of manufacturing as service-like “@McKinsey_MGI: @TheEconomist on #manufacturing” Nov 22, 2012 • @auerswald pendulum swinging back now “@Forbes: Manufacturing may be coming back to the U.S. - for the long term.” Sep 22, 2012 • Baxter the $22K manufacturing robot looks like a butler Building robots small & medium-size companies, mini-computers? Sep 19, 2012 • Good read “@wadhwa: Forbes: The End of Chinese Manufacturing & Rebirth of US Industry" watch this Aug 17, 2012 • Automating clothing manufacture Jul 21, 2012 • transforming manufacturing product and service innovation with people, process and technology #cisco @SamMikhailCPE Jul 21, 2012 • RT @grapealope: "By 2020, everything will be personalized in the manufacturing field." Sophie Vandebroek (hopefully in healthcare too!) ... Jul 19, 2012 • “@SamMikhailCPE: Apple wants U.S. #manufacturing, but it ain't that easy” deeper analysis please beyond dorms unions Jul 04, 2012 • RT @iftf: How Will Employment Change with the Expansion of New Technologies—like Robotics—in Manufacturing? - #Robots Jul 03, 2012 • RT @GreenbizStartup: RT @Richard_Florida Japanese revolutionized manufacturing by harnessing workers' knowledge, now in service http://t ... Jun 27, 2012 • Manufacturing as local recycling service key part of smarter communities Jun 20, 2012
  10. 10. My Tweets (Continued) • RT @4byoung: Tech manufacturing: A disaster waiting to happen? Jun 19, 2012 • RT @timoreilly: 5% of manufacturing jobs went unfilled last year due to lack of skilled applicants Jun 19, 2012 • America makes more today than ever. How&what have changed “@SamMikhailCPE: The Rebirth of American #Manufacturing” May 27, 2012 • RT @auerswald: RT @emeka_okafor: "Making things with a 3D printer changes the rules of #manufacturing" #3dprinting Apr 20, 2012 • “@auerswald: RT @emeka_okafor: 'success of Local Motors, the first open source car?'” manufacturing.” micro-factory Mar 14, 2012 • Fortune 50 original equipment manufacturers, access to powerful computer tools provides competitive advantage Mar 11, 2012 • MAKE: An Amercan Manufacturing Movement Mar 11, 2012 • RT @autodesk: Story by @wadhwa on future of America’s manufacturing sector & the developments @carlbass sees in defining new jobs http:/ ... Mar 08, 2012 • @auerswald between 1995 and 2002 US lost 2M manufacturing jobs; during same period China lost 15M; Weiner was right "The Coming Peosperity" Mar 06, 2012 • Re-industrialize the US? Yes, and here is how - manufacturing as a local recycling service Mar 05, 2012 • RT @HarvardBiz Manufacturing is being transformed - It's Time to Bring Manufacturing Back to the U.S. local recycling Feb 28, 2012
  11. 11. My Tweets (Continued) • RT @KurzweilAINews: Redesigning people: how medtech could expand beyond the injured: The exoskeleton manufactured by Ekso Bionics in... ... Feb 28, 2012 • @livingarchitect manufacturing jobs 8% 2010 to 7% 2020. Professional services health ed predicted to grow the fastest Feb 08, 2012 • @went1955 Historically manufacturing jobs seen as one of few sources of well-paying jobs for less-educated workers Feb 05, 2012 • RT @went1955: Do Manufacturers Need Special Treatment? – Economist Christina Romer in New York Times – Feb 05, 2012 • RT @rossdawson: RT @DanyDeGrave: Crowdsourced Capital and On-Demand Digital Fabrication #3D #manufacturing #crowdsourcing ... Feb 04, 2012 • @auerswald @wadhwa old-style manufacturing jobs going (off-shore to China) going (off-people to automation) gone (3D printable automation) Feb 01, 2012 • RT @auerswald: RT @wadhwa: Over the next few years, we are going to see dramatic changes in manufacturing, design. Even BYO cars! http:/ ... Feb 01, 2012 • RT @daviding: The structural shift from manufacturing economy to service economy can be denied or encouraged by so... ... Feb 01, 2012 • RT @ShaanHurley: Watch @carlbass and @wadhwa discuss education, innovation, and future of manufacturing. #whichwaynext Jan 30, 2012 • Future supply chains modular manufacturing with most parts coming from local recycling & a few high-tech import parts Jan 26, 2012 • Long and slow - but worth watching - return to local manufacturing as a service with mini-mills disruptive innovation Jan 26, 2012
  12. 12. My Tweets (continued) • RT @justinwolfers: Why will Obama single out "an economy built on American manufacturing" in the #SOTU? What's wrong with those of us wi ... Jan 24, 2012 • RT @KurzweilAINews: Microreactors enable safer, more efficient manufacturing: Manufacturing products and drugs will be safer and mor... ... Jan 23, 2012 • @timoreilly @johnmaeda @techreview @ydeologi US makes 19.4% world's manufactured goods—second to China's 19.8% Jan 23, 2012 • RT @timoreilly: RT @johnmaeda On the relation between manufacturing & innovation. via @techreview @ydeologi Jan 23, 2012 • RT @KurzweilAINews: Raspberry Pi starts manufacturing an ARM GNU/Linux box for $25: Raspberry Pi, a $25 computer, has gone into prod... ... Jan 16, 2012 • RT @masscustom: Interesting: Difficulties of established #3dprinting manufacturers to mimik disruptive user innovation @MakerBot: http:/ ... Jan 15, 2012 • RT @auerswald: RT @trueventures: How AI and robotics will change manufacturing from @wadhwa and VentureBeat Jan 14, 2012 • Smart cities rethink mobility MIT Chin's vision local manufacturing of body, in wheel motor battery grid Jan 08, 2012 • RT @Richard_Florida: US total compensation for manufacturing workers now 14th (BLS) abt same as Ireland/ Italy - @erikbryn - ... Dec 30, 2011 • RT @erikbryn: My MIT colleague Rod Brooks discusses how America can use robots to compete with China in manufacturing: ... Dec 23, 2011 • @ireneclng good job! "And service systems are evolving. Future services include manufacturing, future of manufacturing embedded in services" Dec 18, 2011
  13. 13. My Tweets (continued) • The loss of manufacturing jobs often cited as a marker of America’s decline... Dr. Atala printed a kidney on stage Dec 03, 2011 • RT @KurzweilAINews: Disruptions: the 3-D printing free-for-all: A 3-D printer at home will not only change the nature of manufacturi... ... Nov 15, 2011 • Building Materials Reuse deconstruction curriculum for community colleges: manufacturing as a local recycling service Jul 22, 2011 RT @KurzweilAINews: Manufacturers turn to 3-D printing: This May, General Electric announced it would “intensify focus” on additive ... ... Jul 22, 2011 • Manufacturing as a Local Recycling Service: Janet Unruh has the right idea in Recycle Everything. See http://www... Jul 09, 2011 • Manufacturing as a Printing Service: Z Corp Burlington MA from National Geographic on 3D printing of tools. See Jul 09, 2011 • Economist Debate: Manufacturing: Can a national economy thrive without a large manufacturing sector? See the res... Jul 09, 2011
  14. 14. My Tweets: Summary • Renaissance of Regional Economic Development (RED) • The Observatory of Economic Complexity
  15. 15. Innovation Framework • Z2B = Zero to a Billion in Revenue in a under a Decade – University startups (e.g., Google, Facebook, etc.) – Challenge: Find a “Moore’s Law for Service System Scaling” • Service Science Fundamentals – Service is the application of knowledge for mutual benefit of entities (value co-creation processes) – Service innovations scale the benefits of new knowledge globally, rapidly, and profitably – Smart service systems include the customer, provider, and other entities as sources of capabilities, resources, demand, constraints, rights, responsibiliti es in value co-creation processes – Technology and organizational platforms support rapid scaling processes (smart phones, franchises, etc.)
  16. 16. Innovation Framework: Structure Universities & Startups Smart Service Systems Technology Platforms Integrators & API Ecology Customers MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, SJSU, Purdue, UUtah, UArizona Tucson, LinneausU (Sweden), Aalto (Finland), and major teaching, research, and startup universities in many nations globally & their startups Smart Phone, Devices, Appliances, Furniture iPhone, Android Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, IKEA Individuals: Personal and Employee PSS & DSS Smart Vehicles, Grid, Roads, Stores, Homes, Campuses Driverless Car Google, Toyota, Audi, Ford, Deere, IKEA, Starbucks, Tata Individuals: Personal & Employee PSS & DSS Smart Schools, Hospitals, Businesses Watson, CRM, ERP, HCM, SCM, PRM, EC2 IBM, HP, Cisco, SAP, Amazon, Salesforce Institutions: Enterprise PSS & DSS Smart Cities, Regions, States, Nations, Planet Smarter City Intelligent Operation Center IBM, HP, Cisco, Siemens, Accenture Institutions: Enterprise PSS & DSS
  17. 17. Innovation Framework: Funders Source Motivation Mechanisms Government Competitiveness, Close knowledge gaps Research and SBIR grants, IRB’s and Offsets Venture Capital ROI Equity Investments, Exits (Go public, acquisitions) Crowd-funding & Prospective Customer- funding Outcomes, X-Prize, Challenges,, Netflix Industry Funding New Offerings, Platform & Ecosystem Development IP Agreements & Open Innovation Grants Foundations Social Benefits Grants RED High Skill/High Pay Jobs Tax incentives, Property discounts
  18. 18. Innovation Framework: Players Role Supplies Benefits University Faculty Course content/coaching Course improvements University Students Learning labor Becomes more T-shaped Industry Mentors Real-world challenges Talent pipeline Professional Association Mentorship templates Members development University Startups Offering for customers Potential customers Platform Provider Potential to scale New users Ecosystem & SI Provider Potential to scale New offerings Customer Demand Outcomes Funder Investment (See previous funder slide) Service Science Faculty Orchestration & Expertise Close knowledge gaps
  19. 19. And Beyond… Utility Fog • Ultimate vision of material and energy flows inseparable with information flows • Universal Building Block – Utility Fog: Manufactured Things – Cells: Living Things
  20. 20. References • The Circular Economy (Video) – Ellen MacArthur Foundation • The Internet of Things and the future of manufacturing (Interview) – McKinsey Internet_of_Things_and_the_future_of_manufacturing?cid=ot her-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1306 • Changing the Dominant Logic: • Rolls Royce: • The Observatory of Economic Complexity • Utility Fog: • Utility Fog: The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of: made-of
  21. 21. Students For Smarter Planet: ”I have MET the future, and its students!” Jim Spohrer IBM UP Worldwide PICMET 2013, San Jose, CA August 1st, 2013 IBM Smarter Planet IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
  22. 22. Today’s Talk: S4SP • Some statistics and brief discipline histories • Some quotes • Some strategy – Sciences and Applied Arts: IBM UP Strategy • Some possible futures
  23. 23. Some Short Histories: Engineering Management Discipline ( • 1950s & 1960s (Demand and Origins, Al Rubenstein et al.) – World Events: Engineers promoted into management & executive ranks – IEEE Transactions of Engineering Management • 1970s & 1980s (Growth in many places, NSF Erik Block & Richie Henrick, et al.) – World Events: Oil crisis and competitiveness concerns – NSF adds engineering emphasis and computer science – Industrial Engineering (IE) and Management Science (OR) degree programs – World Events: Japan’s success and competitiveness concerns – NSF Meeting, Textbooks, Growth in Degree programs and courses • 1990s to present (Growth, Dundar Kocaoglu, Tarek Kahlil, et al.) – World Events: Internet growth and business school minor – PICMET, IAMOT, IRI, and others ( IEEE, IIE, etc.) – Challenges going forward • Academic Silos: Engineering (accreditation) and Management (minor) • Hiring graduates into industry and industry participation in academic communities – Opportunities going forward • Strong interest in Asia
  24. 24. Information & Computer Science • “The single strongest impulse for introducing computers on campuses in the mid-1950s did not come from the schools themselves or from any federal agency, but instead from IBM.”
  25. 25. Data Science • “Data science incorporates varying elements and builds on techniques and theories from many fields… with the goal of extracting meaning from data and creating data products.”
  26. 26. By 2020, 35 Zettabytes per year • What’s big today will look small in a decade Google processes > 24 Petabytes of data in a single day Facebook processes 10 Terabytes of data every day The Hadron Collider at CERN generates 40 Terabytes of data / sec For every session, NY Stock Exchange captures 1 Terabyte of trade information Twitter processes 7 Terabytes of data every day 250,000,000 tweets 2 Billion Internet users in 2011 By 2013, annual internet traffic will reach 667 Exabytes
  27. 27. Urban Science • Urban science is an interdisciplinary field that studies diverse urban issues and problems
  28. 28. Service Science • The transdisciplinary study of service, the application of knowledge for mutual benefits (value co-creation phenomena), in an ecology of interacting many-to-many, nested, networked viable service system entities.
  29. 29. Silicon Valley: Past, Present, and Future Steve Blank Twitter: sgblank
  30. 30. The Popular View of Silicon Valley History 1910 1960 1970 1980 20001990 Innovation Networks Fruit Orchards Personal Computers Integrated Circuits Internet 1930 1940 19501920 Fruit Orchards Fruit Orchards Steve Jobs Moore/Noyce Marc Andreessen Hewlett & Packard
  31. 31. The Real Story of Silicon Valley History 1910 1960 1970 1980 20001990 Innovation Networks Microwaves/ Defense Personal Computers Integrated Circuits Internet 1930 1940 19501920 Test Equipment Vacuum Tubes
  32. 32. Terman and the Cold War Silicon Valley’s 1st Engine of Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurs Military Finance Crisis ProfitMotivation Cooperative Culture Entrepreneurial Outward-Facing Tech Universities Risk Capital 24/7 Utilities Predictable Economic System Infrastructure Stable Legal System Technical Labs/Universities Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008 Free flow of People/Information
  33. 33. Venture Capital Silicon Valley’s 2nd Engine of Entrepreneurship Crisis ProfitMotivation Cooperative Culture Entrepreneurial Outward-Facing Tech Universities Risk Capital 24/7 Utilities Predictable Economic System Infrastructure Stable Legal System Technical Labs/Universities Steve Blank 23 Sept 2008 Free flow of People/Information Entrepreneurs Venture Finance
  34. 34. Some Quotes • The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better • The future is already here at universities it is just not well distributed • The core values of universities are learning, discovery, and engagement • All viable businesses and governments learn to get smarter at scaling the benefits of new knowledge to their customers and citizens.
  35. 35. Some Strategy
  36. 36. Some more strategy… IBM Platforms for Entrepreneurs • Smarter Cities Intelligent Operations Center Platform • IBM helping university startups to scale up (growth) 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 36
  37. 37. 37 What’s UP at IBM?
  38. 38. 38 Those in-the-know say, “IBM is helping to build a Smarter Planet…”
  39. 39. 39 Smarter Planet = Smarter Systems INSTRUMENTED We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything. INTERCONNECTED People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways. INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events. WORKFORCE PRODUCTS SUPPLY CHAIN COMMUNICATIONS TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS IT NETWORKS
  40. 40. 40 City challenges Ryan Chin: Smart Cities
  41. 41. 41 Smart Startup: Streetline
  42. 42. 42 Smart Neonatal ICU
  43. 43. 43 Land-population-energy-carbon Carlo Ratti: Senseable Cities
  44. 44. 44
  45. 45. 45
  46. 46. 46 Four commandments for cities of the future: Eduardo Paes at TED2012
  47. 47. 47 SC IOC as a Platform for Innovation
  48. 48. 48 48  Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.  SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press in Wall Street Journal, Forbes and Bloomberg in Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th apply now at Exclusive Networking and Mentoring event North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, University Programs lead: Dawn Tew,
  49. 49. 49 What are the trends? Digital Immigrant Born: 1988 Graduated College: 2012 Digital Native Born: 2012 Enters College: 2030
  50. 50. 50 Transportation: Self-driving cars Steve Mahan: Test “Driver”
  51. 51. 51 Water: Circular Economy
  52. 52. 52 Manufacturing: Circular Economy Ryan Chin: Urban Mobility Baxter: Building the Future Maker-Bot: Replicator 2
  53. 53. 53 Energy: Artificial Leaf
  54. 54. 54 Technology: Cognitive Computing
  55. 55. 55 55 Example: Leading Through Connections with… Universities Collaborate with IBM Research to Design Watson for the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy ! Assisted in the development of the Open Advancement of Question-Answering Initiative (OAQA) architecture and methodology Pioneered an online natural language question answering system called START, which provided the ability to answer questions with high precision using information from semi-structured and structured information repositories Worked to extend the capabilities of Watson, with a focus on extensive common sense knowledge Focused on large-scale information extraction, parsing, and knowledge inference technologies Worked on a visualization component to visually explain to external audiences the massively parallel analytics skills it takes for the Watson computing system to break down a question and formulate a rapid and accurate response to rival a human brain  Provided technological advancement enabling a computing system to remember the full interaction, rather than treating every question like the first one - simulating a real dialogue Explored advanced machine learning techniques along with rich text representations based on syntactic and semantic structures for the Watson’s optimization Worked on information retrieval and text search technologies
  56. 56. 56 Buildings: Circular Economy China Broad Group: 30 Stories in 15 Days
  57. 57. 57 Retail & Hospitality: Social Media
  58. 58. 58 Finance: Crowd Funding
  59. 59. 59 Health: Robotics & 3D Printing
  60. 60. 60 Education: Challenge-Based Sport
  61. 61. 61 Government: Parameterized Meta-Rules • Innovativeness • Equity – Improve weakest link • Sustainability • Resiliency
  62. 62. 62 Competitive Parity – Achieved. • The NFL touts parity—the idea that any team can win on any given Sunday. But this year, parity has truly run wild. • Through six weeks, 11 of the NFL's 32 teams are 3-3. • The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation…
  63. 63. What is a T-shaped Student? 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 63 Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deepinonesector Deepinoneregion/culture Deepinonediscipline
  64. 64. Silicon Valley: How many places…? • Help win a war? Terman • Help launch new industries? Shockley • Help launch many sub-industries? RAMAC • Help improve improvement? Lean Startups – Steve Blank: Why You Must Test Your Hypotheses • • Boast so many great universities! – Stanford, Berkeley, UCSC, UCSF, SJSU, etc.
  65. 65. IBM: How many companies…? • 1. Make it to 100? – IBM Centennial Film: 100 X 100 - A century of achievements that have changed the world • • 2. Achieve #1 Patents > 20 yrs in a row? – Twenty Years • – Boy And His Atom • • 3. Make computers smarter? – Watson: Science Behind An Answer • – 5 in 5: New Capabilities • • 4.Make ~100 acquisitions of big companies in a decade? – Partnerworld • • 5. Help make a Smarter Planet? – Nation by nation, state by state, city by city • • – Internet of Thing •
  66. 66. The Future: My “Mentors” • The future is already here at universities, it is just not yet well distributed – With apologies to Gibson • The best way to predict the future is to inspired the next generation of students to build it better – With apologies to Kay
  67. 67. 67 2030 and Beyond…. Government, Health, Education, Finance, etc.
  68. 68. 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 68
  69. 69. Questions • What is ISSIP? • What is a service platform? • What is service science? • What is a T-shaped professional? • How is this related to your work at IBM with universities? • What are the important future trends you see?
  70. 70. What is ISSIP? • Pronounced I-ZIP • International Society of Service Innovation Professionals • SIG Education & Research – T-shapes – Service Science 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 70
  71. 71. What is a service platform? • Access Places & Entities – Scale benefits – Of new knowledge – Globally & rapidly • Smart Phones & Watson • Smarter City IOC • Franchises 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 71
  72. 72. Service Science • Emerging Discipline – Service Science, Management, and Engineering (SSME) • Service – Not sector (ECON) – Not capability (CS) • Value Co-Creation • Service System Entities 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 72 IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress
  73. 73. How do universities fit in? • Best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation to build it better • The future is already here at universities it is just not well distributed 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 73
  74. 74. Growth 74
  75. 75. 75 Nesting Matryoska dolls: Origin Japanese
  76. 76. 76 I am nested in at least 10 systems Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example 0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim 1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s 2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington 3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land 4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified 5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara 6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County 7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA 8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA 9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA 10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN
  77. 77. 77 Time ECOLOGY ~14B Big Bang (Natural World) ~10K Cities (Human-Made World) sun (energy) writing (symbols and scribes, stored memory and knowledge) earth (molecules & stored energy) written laws (governance and stored control) bacteria (single-cell life) sponges (multi-cell life) money (governed transportable value stored value, “economic energy”) universities (knowledge workers) clams (neurons) trilobites (brains) printing press (books) steam engine (work)200M bees (social division-of-labor) 60 transistor (routine cognitive work) Evolution of Natural Systems & Service Systems Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum
  78. 78. 78 ~100 years of US job transformations Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
  79. 79. 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 79 IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe Acquisitions contribute significantly to IBM’s growth ; ~120 acquisitions in last decade 2012 Financials Revenue - $ 104.5B Net Income - $ 17.6B EPS - $ 15.25 (10 yrs of EPS d/digit growth)  Net Cash - $18.2B 24% of IBMs revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 7% ( @cc) in 2012 Number 1 in patent generation for 20 consecutive years ; 6,478 US patents awarded in 2012 More than 40% of IBMs workforce does business away from an office 5 Nobel Laureates10 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation – latest for LASIK laser refractive surgical techniques The Smartest Machine On Earth 100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011 New Era in IBM’s Leadership IBM Growth Initiatives IBM has ~425,000 employees worldwide Context: IBM 101
  80. 80. 80 Automobile Technological Acceleration 0 25 50 100 125 15075 Years 25 50 100 TelephoneElectricity Radio Television VCR PC Cellular %Penetration YEARS
  81. 81. 81 •iPhone/iPad app developer •wireless marketing director •microfinance infrastructure designer •3D content developer for movies, TV •social network manager •deploying technology into the cloud •organic solar cell development •digital image management Many top in-demand jobs in 2011 did not exist in 2005! 81
  82. 82. 82 82 U.S Department of Labor estimates that today’s learner will have 10-14 jobs… by the age of 38!
  83. 83. 83  Estimates are 85% of the jobs today’s learners will be doing haven’t been invented yet  they'll be using technologies that don't exist  to solve problems we don't yet know are problems 83
  84. 84. 84 Five historical cycles …
  85. 85. 85 University: Four Missions • Knowledge – 1. Transfer (Teaching) – 2. Creation (Research) – 3. Application (Benefits) • Commerce/Entrepreneurship • Governance/Policymaking – 4. Re-Integration (Challenge) • Innovativeness, Equity • Sustainability, Resilience • Nested, Networked Holistic Service Systems – Flows – Development – Governance Nation State/Province City/Metro University College K-12 Cultural & Conference Hotels Hospital Medical Research Worker (professional) Family (household) For-profits Non-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer Third Mission (Apply to Create Value) is about U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
  86. 86. Universities Matter #1 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 86 Japan China Germany France United KingdomItaly Russia SpainBrazil Canada India Mexico AustraliaSouth Korea NetherlandsTurkey Sweden y = 0,7489x + 0,3534 R² = 0,719 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 %globalGDP % top 500 universities Nation’s % WW GDP and % Top 500 Universities (2009 Data)
  87. 87. Universities Matter #2 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 87 …But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M
  88. 88. Universities Matter #3 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 88 “When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
  89. 89. Universities Matter #4 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 89 What is a U-BEE? A local job creator/sustainer Innovating “whole service” in all regions worldwide Nation State/Province City/Region University College K-12 Cultural & Conference Hotels Hospital Medical Research Worker (professional) Family (household) For-profits Non-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems “The future is already here (at universities), it is just not evenly distributed.” “The best way to predict the future is to (inspire the next generation of students to) build it better.”
  90. 90. On Campus IBMers 10/4/2013 © IBM 2013 IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward) 9090 Up-Skill Cycle University-Region1 University-Region2 = New Venture = Acquisition = High-Growth Acquisition/ New IBM BU (Growing) = High-Productivity/ Mature IBM BU (Shrinking) = IBMer moving from mature BU to acquisition = IBMer moving into On Campus IBMer role (help create graduates with Smarter-Planet skills, help create Smarter Planet oriented new ventures; Refresh skills = Graduates with Smarter Planet skills IBM
  91. 91. 91 Measuring Quality-of-Life? A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 1. Transportation & supply chain 2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment 3. Food & products manufacturing 4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech 5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access) B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*) 6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*) 8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*) 9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*) 10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*) C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax) 12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax) 13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax) 0/19/02/7/4 2/1/1 7/6/1 1/1/0 5/17/27 1/0/2 24/24/1 2/20/24 7/10/3 5/2/2 3/3/1 0/0/0 1/2/2 Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities * = US Labor % in 2009. “61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
  92. 92. Data Science + Urban Science + Service Science = Smarter Planet Jim Spohrer Director IBM University Programs June 17, 2013
  93. 93. Sciences & Applied Arts • All sciences study systems – Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Information and Computer Science, Service Science, etc. • All applied arts change systems – Management, Engineering, Design Arts, Public Policy seek to apply rigorous scientific knowledge to create better worlds to inhabit
  94. 94. 942013 ISSIP and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. ISSIPIntroductionto CaliforniaCenterforServiceScience Yassi Moghddam Executive Director, ISSIP twitter: @yassi_moghddam (408) 318-0332 September 13, 2013
  95. 95. Who…. Charlie Bess, BOD Member, Vice President, ISSIP; HP Fellow, and VP Ammar Rayes, President, ISSIP; Distinguished Engineer, Cisco Services Jim Spohrer BOD Member, Secretary, Treasure, ISSIP; Director Global University Programs, IBM Yassi Moghaddam Executive Director, ISSIP; Formerly Bell Labs, AT&T, Lucent, Wells Fargo, & several startups Ana Pinczuk BOD Member, ISSIP; SVP Transformation, Cisco Services Haluk Demirkan BOD Member, ISSIP; Professor University of Washington Ralp Badinelli BOD Member, ISSIP; Professor Virginia Tech Founded, July 2012 Jeff Welser Vice President Elect, ISSIP; Director Services Research, IBM
  96. 96. Why? • Our world is becoming more interconnected and complex • Yet most organizations operate is silos • Most professional organizations do a great job of focusing on one discipline, function, or industry sector ISSIP is a professional society designed to focus on the interconnected nature of value co-creation for smart service systems (tech, biz, social, etc.) BREADTH DEPTH T-Shape professionals can innovate across traditional boundaries
  97. 97. • Professional Development • Education • Research • Practices • Policy Making “To promote service innovations for our interconnected world.” Through: Special Interest groups Committees Chapters Students Mentorship Our Mission Ambassadors - Individual Members: > 360 - Institutional members: 3 and growing - Service Systems: ICT, Education, Healthcare, Transportation, Financials, Energy, Government - Universities: 55+ - Countries: 37+
  98. 98. ISSIP Special Interest Groups • Existing SIGs – Cloud Mobility – Education & Research – Energy and Power – Service Futures – Software Defined Networks – User Experience • Other topics: must relate to smart services…. Big Data & Analytics, IoT, Globalization, Innovation Tools & Methods, and more… • SIGs are proposed by members and approved by the Board of Directors. 98 Outcomes •White papers, journal articles •Influencing Standards •Workshops •Co-sponsoring or presenting at conferences •Surveys •Research best practices for smart service systems
  99. 99. ISSIP Ambassadors • More than 15 Ambassadors and growing… • Link ISSIP to other professional associations, research centers, conferences, etc. • Help ISSIP co-sponsor activities in other conferences more... ork/
  100. 100. Academia-Industry-ISSIP Students Mentorship • Goal: Co-create a superior mentorship expience between ISSIP members including college students academics, industry professionals, policy makers, and members of other professional societies • Focus: projects that address real business and societal challenges • Platform: pipeline of smart service projects of mutual interest to: • Students that make them more competitive for smart service jobs • Academicians, for smart services case development, and research • For industry partners to test a vetted pool of talent for hiring • Participating Universities so far: Hult SF, SJSU • Participating Companies so far: IBM, Cisco, HP • Sample outcomes: student-mentorship-pilot-may to august-2013/ Regions 2.0 San Jose State University, IBM, Cisco, HP, and ISSIP now designing new templates for regional development through service innovation! Mentorship JobInternship
  101. 101. Professional Development • ISSIP Certification, Badges, and Seals – Certification Committee Chair: Professor Haluk Demirkan, University of Washington, – Committee Goals: Lead and define criteria for ISSIP certifications and badges for services, solutions, systems, courses and workshops, – In the short term: • “ISSIP Reviewed” already granted through Hult International School of Business – Courses, workshops, books, etc. – In the long term: • Develop BOK • Develop testing, certification, and auditing criteria • Offer professional certifications • Professional Book Series – BEP, Co-editors: Dr. Jim Spohrer, Dr. Haluk Demirkan • Developing T-shape assessment instruments - Professor Lou Freund, SJSU
  102. 102. Let’s work together… 1. Register at community 2. Inquire about becoming an institutional member of ISSIP @ 3. Join or start a SIG: interest-groups 4. Become an ISSIP Ambassador: mbassadors 5. Join a Committee: ommittees 6. Send ideas to 102
  103. 103. 1032013 ISSIP and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Thank you! Yassi Moghddam Executive Director, ISSIP twitter: @yassi_moghddam (408) 318-0332
  104. 104. ISSIP Chapters • Geographic chapters are proposed by members and approved by the Board of Directors. • First Chapter: ISSIP Germany • Chapters for Switzerland, Japan, UK, Italy, Jordan, Australia, and others are planned. 104 ISSIP Germany
  105. 105. Committees • Conferences Committee – Oversee ISSIP Conference activities • Elections Committee – Administers ISSIP Elections • Nominating Committee: – Administers ISSIP nominations for various elected positions • Operations Committee – Manages the tactical operations of ISSIP • Publications Committee: – Set guidelines for and manage ISSIP publications • Certification Committee – Leads and define criteria for ISSIP certifications and badges for services, solutions, systems, courses and workshops, develop BOK, develop testing and auditing criteria • Mentorship Committee – Oversee ISSIP-industry- academia Student Mentorship Program • New Members Committee – Increase quantity of both Dues Paying members and Individual members