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Jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

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NBIC(S) 2.0 = Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-Social
pronounced "Nib-Iks-Two-Oh"
Mike Roco
Bill Bainbridge
NSF

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Jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

  1. 1. IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward) Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno IBM Centennial Icon of Progress Egypt-Japan University of Science & TechnologyDr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.comInnovation Champion and Director IBM UPward OF THE(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development) NBIC(S) 2.0Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  2. 2. Today’s Talk What’s NBIC(S) 2.0? – Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 – “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh” – Why NIBC(S)-2? Why add social? – A Few Slides from NBIC-1 (The lens of “work” – “Z-Theory”) – What has changed in 10 years? • Social Media & Business (Collaborate) • 3D Printing (Even More Real Now) • Google Glasses (WorldBoard) • Drones (Telerobotics) What’s next? – Energy 2.0: 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days – Manufacturing 2.0: Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving – Agriculture 2.0: Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back – Education 2.0: Universities=living-labs/smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx – Life 2.0: CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds – Smart 2.0: SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc. What’s important? – Whole Service Systems (individuals, family, cities, etc.) – Measures: Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience – Policymaking: Balance WTA & IWL policies (global grand challenges, X-Prizes) – Education: T-shaped people2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  3. 3. NBIC(S)2 Social http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf3 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  4. 4. Why Social? Look What’s New… Smarter Planet Watson Jeopardy! Cloud Computing, Analytics Service Science Social Business CyberSecurity… IBM title Google & Apple Microsoft WordPress LinkedIn Twitter HP, Oracle, SAP, Facebook, Etc., etc.4 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  5. 5. Accelerating Change 200450 Years: Information technology connecting islands ofinformation (created by people) into larger networks3.00E+17 Growth rates for:2.50E+172.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second1.50E+17 transistors1.00E+17 Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,5.00E+16 fMRI regions scanned per second0.00E+00 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999About 10 billion transistors made per second Info: Bytes storage made per secondin 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per secondICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)5 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  6. 6. Accelerating Change 2004200 year view: Services dominate Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004 Labor A G S delta S United States China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods: Value from making products U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21 Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38 Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway, driven by urbanization, Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30 global communications, Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth >50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.6 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  7. 7. Accelerating Change 2004 Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis) Human System Tool System Service provider helps The choice to the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices of it for them (incentives) (tool) (in a custom way) requires answering Z 1 2 four key questions: Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value) - Can we? (Technology) the client by doing all Delegate Automate of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance) (in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities) 3 4 Incent People Harness Nature (Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)Example: Call Centers Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate (1970) (1980) (2000) (2010) Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing by Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement” 7 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  8. 8. Accelerating Change 2004Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ  FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow” http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all …Detective story from a family with inferences are shallow” slurred speech to genes that influence  Relationship oriented computing tools brain development and enable speech Amazon – Recommendation system (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold and the Brain by Terrence W. Deacon Open Innovation The Cathedral & by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond8 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  9. 9. Accelerating Change 2004 WorldBoardCollaborate (continued) Connections by James Burke Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age by Duncan J. Watts Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson9 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  10. 10. Accelerating Change 2004Augment: TeleroboticsDoctor: United States Patient: FranceFirst transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us by Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote- presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)10 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  11. 11. Accelerating Change 2004 http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/ Delegate: Outsourcing 60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of IndiaMeasure freedom Measure money Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization by Amartya Sen by Thomas L. Friedman 1998 Nobel Prize Winner Economics 11 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  12. 12. Accelerating Change 2004Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography) BUILDING BONES. A rats skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated Printing Organs scaffold (right). F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich “This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham12 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  13. 13. What’s Next – NBIC(S) 2.0? – Energy 2.0: • 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days – Manufacturing 2.0: • Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving – Agriculture 2.0: • Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back – Education 2.0: • Universities as living-labs for their smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx – Life 2.0: • CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds – Smart 2.0 • SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.13 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  14. 14. Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly China Broad Group: 30 Stories in 15 Days14 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  15. 15. Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service Ryan Chin: Urban Mobility15 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  16. 16. Self-driving cars Steve Mahan: Test “Driver”16 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  17. 17. City challenge: buildings and transportation Ryan Chin: Smart Cities17 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  18. 18. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon Carlo Ratti: Senseable Cities18 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  19. 19. Universities key to regions Nation  Three Streams State/Province City/Metro – Transfer knowledge For-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer – Create knowledge Cultural & Conference University Hospital Medical College Hotels Research K-12 – Apply knowledge to co-create value Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household)  Nested Holistic Systems – Flows – Development Third Stream is about U-BEEs = – Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems19 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  20. 20. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056Innovations NationUniversities/ “The future is already State/Province here (at universities),Regions City/RegionCalculus (Cambridge/UK) For-profits it is just not evenlyPhysics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEEComputer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/SustainerYahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital Cultural & UniversityGoogle (Stanford/CA) Medical Conference CollegeFacebook (Harvard/CA) Research Hotels K-12 “The best way to Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household) predict the future is to (inspire the next generation of students to) build it better.” U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City 20 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  21. 21. Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data) 9 Japan 8 7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534 R² = 0,719 China 6 Germany 5 France 4 United Kingdom Italy % G D o b P a g l 3 Russia Brazil Spain Canada 2 India Mexico South Korea Australia Turkey Netherlands 1 Sweden 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % top 500 universities21 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  22. 22. What’s Important – NBIC(S) 2.0 – Theory is important (object of study) • Whole Service Systems – individuals, family, cities, etc. • Measures – Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience – Policymaking (rules) as important at Technology (capabilities) • Balance WTA & IWL policies • global grand challenges, X-Prizes • Winner-Take-All and Improve-Weakest-Link – Quality-of-Life focus is important • QoLife = – QoService (Customer) + QoWork (Provider) + QoOpportunity (Parent) • Education – T-shaped people – Breadth and depth • Universities – Third stream: Apply knowledge to create value – Rankings “should” change more (for equity)22 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  23. 23. Four measures  Innovativeness  Equity  Sustainability  Resiliency23 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  24. 24. T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth Many cultures Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) BREADTH Deep in one discipline Deep in one system Deep in one culture DEPTH (analytic thinking & problem solving)2424 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
  25. 25. Accelerating Change 2004Service Science, an emerging multidiscipline toaccelerate the coevolution of business-technology-workinnovations Industry-Academic- Government Collaboration Needed November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
  26. 26. Accelerating Change 2004Today’s Talk  Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change – what’s really changing? 12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture 12,000 year view – rise in human population 200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services – what’s that all about?  Part 2: Are services even the slightest bit interesting? Adam Smith’s view – services are parasites on the rest of the economy Colin Clark’s view – Smith, Marx, Stalin made the error of neglecting services Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible economy Emergence of Service Science discipline  Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal? From loosely guided to designed evolution of capabilities… (maybe) Work-capability evolution (collaboration, augmentation, delegation, automation)26 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  27. 27. Accelerating Change 2004Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change  What’s really changing?  12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture  12,000 year view – rise in human population  200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services – what’s that all about?27 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  28. 28. Accelerating Change 2004 12B years of capability coevolution & accelerating change Billion Years Ago Natural Capabilities Generations Ago Human Capabilities 12 Big Bang (EMST) 100,000 Speech 11.5 Milky Way (Atoms) 750 Agriculture 8 Sun (Energy) 500 Writing 4.5 Earth (Molecules) 400 Libraries 3.5 Bacteria (Cell) 40 Universities 2.5 Sponge (Body) 24 Printing 0.7 Clams (Nerves) 16 Accurate Clocks 0.5 Trilobites (Brains) 5 Telephone 0.2 Bees (Swarms) 4 Radio 0.065 Mass Extinctions 3 Television 0.002 Humans 2 Computer Tools & Clans 1 Internet/e-Mail Coevolution 0 GPS, DVD, WDM Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century by Howard Bloom28 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  29. 29. Accelerating Change 200412,000 years: Human population growth from 5M to 6B people200 years: Rise of the modern managerial firm Information Technologies, etc. Scientific Method, Industrialization Colonial Expansion & Economics, Rise of the modern managerial firm & Politics, Education, Healthcare & Effects of Agriculture, The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business by Alfred Dupont Chandler29 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  30. 30. Accelerating Change 2004Part 2: Are services even slightly interesting?  Adam Smith’s view – parasites on the rest of the economy  Colin Clark’s view – growing rapidly (Clark-Fisher Hypothesis)  Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible or “weightless” economy  Emergence of Service Science discipline30 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  31. 31. Accelerating Change 2004200 year view: Services dominate Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004 Labor A G S delta S United States China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods: Value from making products U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21 Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38 Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway, driven by urbanization, Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30 global communications, Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth >50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.31 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  32. 32. Accelerating Change 2004Services in an economy drive up human capability growthDeveloping nations that invest in government services, health and educationservices, financial and business services, transportation services, utility services,communication services, and wholesale and retail services (growth of their serviceeconomy) create large populations of service labor – removing “un-freedoms,” doingvaluable work for others. (see Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom) Example: medical, legal, and IT work in India Extractive Sector Business Consumer Services Financial & information Professional & business Infrastructure Trade Services Services Transportation & warehousing Wholesale & retail Utilities & communication Public Social/personal Administration Education & healthcare Services Manufacturing Leisure & hospitality Government Sector Source: Dorothy I. Riddle (1986) Service-Led Growth. Praeger, NY Development as Freedom 1998 Nobel Prize by Amartya Sen Winner Economics32 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  33. 33. Accelerating Change 2004Business of production (Solow’s model) Production is measure of results or “goals achieved” Production per capita (Y) as a function of output per worker (L) and capital assets per worker (K) and investment per worker (I) Investment drives technology progress and improves the efficiency of labor; accumulates over time as capital assets Today: Six billion people (L) with the capital assets created by one hundred billion people throughout history (K) and innovation investments (I) to increase efficiency of L, K, and I Innovation impact will be realized in terms of… More workers (L): Healthy – healthcare services More capital assets (K): Wealthy – financial services, retail services, transportation services More investment (I): Wise – education services, information services, financial services Growth Theory: An Exposition by Robert M. Solow33 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  34. 34. Accelerating Change 2004IT investment drives up service sector productivity growth Worldwide IT spend 36% Financial and Information Services 13% Government 9% Retail and Wholesale 8% Professional and Business Services (20% manufacturing) US CAGR in Labor Productivity 4.4% Financial and Information Services 3.8% Government 3.8% Retail and Wholesale 2.9% Professional and Business Services (1.4% manufacturing) Source: Gartner WW IT Spend Industry Report (December 2003)34 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  35. 35. Accelerating Change 2004Economic Distinctions & Evolution of Value Growth Economic Commodity Packaged Commodity Consumer Business Offering Goods Goods Services Services++ Services++ Economy Agrarian Industrial Service Experience Transformation Economic Extract Make Deliver Stage Co-create value Function growth Nature of Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable Effectual Offering Key Natural Standard Custom Personal Value growth Attribute relationship Method of Stored in Inventory of Delivered Reveal over Sustained over time Supply Bulk product On Demand duration Seller Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager Collaborator Buyer Market Customer Client Guest Collaborator Factors of Characteristics Features Benefits Sensations Capabilities Demand (Cultural Values) Based on (Pine & Gilmore, 1999), Table 9-1, pg 170. The Experience Economy by B. Joseph Pine II, James H. Gilmore35 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  36. 36. Accelerating Change 2004What you may not know… IBM led in the creation ofComputer Science departments at universities Now IBM is working to Establish Service Science The biggest costs were in changing the organization. One way to think about these changes is to treat the Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset. Firms make investments over time in developing a new process, rebuilding their staff or designing a new organizational structure, and the benefits from these Investments are realized over a long period of time.” Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”36 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  37. 37. Accelerating Change 2004Relationship of Service Science to Existing Academic Areas:The center balances three key factors: business value, IT process, organizational culture1. Service Engineering 1990-2004 1900-1960 14. Computer &2. Service Operations Process: Information Technology Information Sciences3. Service Management 15. Management of Innovation4. Service Marketing 16. Organization Theory5. Social Complexity 14 17. Operations Research6. Agent-based comput- 18. Systems Engineeringational economics 287. Computational 21 18 19. Management ScienceOrganization Theory 10 20. Game Theory 1 118. Human Capital 5 21. Industrial EngineeringManagement (HCM) 13 7 3 2 17 22. Marketing9. Experimental 6 4 23. ManagerialEconomics 8 12 15 Psychology10. AI & Games 16 27 9 25 22 24. Business11. Management of 24 Administration (MBA)Information Systems People: 23 19 Capital: 25. Economics12. Computer Supported 20 Business 26. LawCollab. Work (CSCW) Organizational 2613. Human Performance Culture Decisions 27. SociologyTech. & Measurement 1960-1990 Before 1900 28. Education 37 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  38. 38. Accelerating Change 2004Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?  From old paradigm business-technology-work coevolution to a new paradigm of facilitated coevolution of capabilities to address complex, urgent problems (maybe – if we can get collectively smart enough, fast enough; problems or challenges are coevolving with capabilities)  Work evolution Improved collaboration (communications & coordination) Improved augmentation (tools) Improved delegation (outsourcing) Improved automation (self service)38 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  39. 39. Accelerating Change 2004 Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis) Human System Tool System Service provider helps The choice to the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices of it for them (incentives) (tool) (in a custom way) requires answering Z 1 2 four key questions: Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value) - Can we? (Technology) the client by doing all Delegate Automate of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance) (in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities) 3 4 Incent People Harness Nature (Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)Example: Call Centers Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate (1970) (1980) (2000) (2010) Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing by Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement” 39 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  40. 40. Accelerating Change 2004Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ  FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow” http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all …Detective story from a family with inferences are shallow” slurred speech to genes that influence  Relationship oriented computing tools brain development and enable speech Amazon – Recommendation system (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold and the Brain by Terrence W. Deacon Open Innovation The Cathedral & by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond40 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  41. 41. Accelerating Change 2004 WorldBoardCollaborate (continued) Connections by James Burke Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age by Duncan J. Watts Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson41 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  42. 42. Accelerating Change 2004Augment: TeleroboticsDoctor: United States Patient: FranceFirst transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us by Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote- presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)42 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  43. 43. Accelerating Change 2004 http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/ Delegate: Outsourcing 60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of IndiaMeasure freedom Measure money Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization by Amartya Sen by Thomas L. Friedman 1998 Nobel Prize Winner Economics 43 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  44. 44. Accelerating Change 2004Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography) BUILDING BONES. A rats skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated Printing Organs scaffold (right). F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich “This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham44 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  45. 45. Accelerating Change 2004In the past, work has changed relatively slowly…45 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  46. 46. Accelerating Change 2004In the service economy, work changes rapidly… Science-technology and business innovations constantly reconfigure work. Service science seeks to understand and design improved reconfigurations. Science Technology Business New Products & Services drive Business Tech underlies new Products & Services Science produces Data, drives Info Tech Group (outside) Social Science, Financial Economics, Services, Legal, Org. Behavior Insurance, Government Individual Cognitive Education, (inside/outside) Science Communication Brain (inside) Neurophysiology Healthcare, Public Cell (inside) Proteomics Healthcare, Industrial Gene (inside) Genomics Healthcare, Distribution46 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  47. 47. Accelerating Change 2004 Perhaps technology can help search for improvements in the reconfigurations space… Blue Gene, as its name suggests, is aimed at the drug-development market. Scientists hope eventually to model how proteins fold – a process that is important in designing drugs that can block cancer cells and other diseases. Computational organization theory and agent-based computational economics are potential future directions.36.01 teraflops (Linpack benchmark)47 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  48. 48. Accelerating Change 2004Emergence of Service ScienceUnderstand service phenomena to better optimize across three levels impacted by rise of service economy  Economic goals at three levels 1. Nations: Maximize GDP / Capita per year Note nations have many other goals, including environment, health, education, defense, quality of life for citizens, high-skill, high-pay jobs, etc. 2. Businesses: Maximize Revenue / Employee and Profits / Employee per year Note increasingly businesses are adding additional values, such as sustainable environment, work-life balance, etc. 3. Individuals: Maximize Income / Time Note in a survey of US information technology workers, base-pay rated fourth in overall goals, behind challenge, stability, and flexibility of work experience.  Economic goals are achieved by four plans, productivity level is the key attribute 1. Follow demand: Migrate labor to high productivity industries/offerings/jobs where demand exceeds supply 2. Create demand/value innovation: Invent new high productivity industries/offerings/jobs 3. Repair supply: Invest to transform low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills); including leap-frog productivity strategy 4. Protect supply: Invest to protect low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills) in an effort to buy time, and if lucky catch next wave  The study of value innovation & labor productivity are important to service science Historically, what has determined the rise in demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in the demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in labor productivity in particular industries? Already empirical evidence indicates that effective IT-enabled productivity gains requires aligning technology, business/value, and organizational culture innovations. People can resist change or help accelerate change depending on the alignment of all three factors. As economic goals are achieved, wealth increases, and increasingly other goals take priority, hence the value of economic transactions will not simply be measured in financial terms, side-effects matter. Economic transactions will need to maximize value add beyond financial metrics.48 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  49. 49. Accelerating Change 2004 A Preliminary Definition of Service Science Service Science is the study of business methods to create and capture value, technology tools to re-engineer processes, and organizational culture practices to incent and People align people, and their collective impact on effectiveness and Human & Organizational efficiency in the performance of services work. Performance (PIP = 1.1 to 10) Recent studies of IT Productivity Paradox indicate that technology tools, business methods, and organizational culture must align to achieve return on investment for IT. The services industry must be viewed as a collection of Process interacting systems, where the history of the systems Business Optimization, (legacy) matters as much as new events in understanding Professional Services Automation what should, can, may, and will happen next. (PIP = 1.1 to 4) Effectiveness means working on the right things that matter to the business and efficiency means doing the work according to best practices. Productivity depends on both effective and efficient performance. Services are typically simultaneously produced (by the provider) Capital and consumed (by the client). The provider and the client Value Based Management can each be individuals, organizations, or automated (PIP = 1.1 to 2) systems. PIP: Potential for Improvement of Performance 49 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  50. 50. Accelerating Change 2004 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution History of Technology Technology Projections History of Work Coevolution Work Projections History of Business Business Projections Service Science Industry Technology->process change Academic (also regulations->process change) Government Business->capital ROI change Collaboration Work-> people and org. change (also education->people change)50 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  51. 51. Accelerating Change 2004EXTRA SLIDES November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
  52. 52. Accelerating Change 2004This talk…  Is about accelerating innovation… By improving technology and organizations and work Service science to accelerate the coevolution of business- technology-work innovations  Is not about assessing risks…  Is not about betting on the future... Things That Make Us Smart: Defending Human Attributes in the Age of the Machine by Donald A. Norman Examples: Watch, Writing; Metric: Symbols & Models Survival of the Smartest: Managing Information for Rapid Action and World-Class Performance by Haim Mendelson, Johannes Ziegler Metric: Awareness, Decisions, Communication, Focus, Infrastr.52 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  53. 53. Accelerating Change 2004Risks – not today’s talk  Privacy violations (social issues)  Unequal access (social issues)  Censorship (social issues)  Mischief and crime (social issues)  Environmental damage (systemic issues)  Glitches and out of control (systemic issues)  Overload (cognitive, social, and systemic issues)  Also alienation, narrowing, deceit, degradation, intrusion, inequality, etc. (and many more issues associated with new technologies of all sorts throughout the history of humans which is also (incidentally) the history of technology & organizations) The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in Our Midst See NetFuture (http://www.netfuture.org/) by Steve Talbott (stevet@oreilly.com) (also see Chapter 7of Andy Clark “Natural-Born Cyborgs” titled “Bad Borgs?”))53 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  54. 54. Accelerating Change 2004Betting on the future – not today’s talk  But if you want to bet, check out Longbets.org, one of a growing number of websites dedicated to betting on the future  Many bets such as Featured Bet on 20040208: Douglas C. Hewes predicts: "By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification." read the argument » Stuart Brand, author of “The Clock of the Long Now” Founder, Longbet.org54 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  55. 55. Accelerating Change 2004What makes us smarter? Human system & Tool system  Capability evolution = things that make us smart (our organizations & tools) Growth of capabilities to create and achieve goals, intentionally and parsimoniously Growth of win-win games over win-lose; higher payoffs; lower risks; lower maintenance (entropy) Growth of capabilities to sense, communicate, decide, act; Growth of capabilities to bud and scale  Slowly: In the past 12 billion years (2 million years), evolution has been driving what has been making things (humans) smarter Atoms, Molecules, Cell, Life, Body, Nerves, Brains, Swarms, Humanity…  Rapidly: In the past 200 years, organizations have been driving what has been making us smarter – business-technology-work coevolution Citizen - 230 years ago it was government – rise of modern democracy (intangible - sustainable freedom) Worker - 150 years ago it was business – rise of modern managerial firm (intangible - efficient value) Consumer – 80 years ago buy more than make; Shareholder – 20 years ago; upside for growth of businesses  Very Rapidly: In the past 50 years, information technology has been driving what has been making us smarter – service economy dominates Only in the last fifty years with the discovery of DNA (bio), creation of digital computing technology (info), ability to manipulate matter at the atomic scale (nano), and rapid advancement of cognitive science to better understand human thought processes (cogno) has information processing in natural, social, and technological substrates been perceived as “converging” – discoveries in one area leading to advances/applications in the others Shadows in the Sun, by Wade Davis “Ethnosphere: Its really the sum total of all the thoughts, beliefs, myths, and institutions brought into being by the human imagination. It is humanitys greatest legacy, embodying everything we have produced as a curious and amazingly adaptive species.”55 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  56. 56. Accelerating Change 2004Business Implications: Three examples  Healthy: More healthy people to boost effective labor Our Bodies & Our Environment Someday Personalized Pharmaceuticals (nano for sensors, delivery, design)  Wealthy: More capital assets per worker to boost effective labor Our Material Goods (Sustainable, Cheaper, Stronger) Someday On Demand Materials (nano for manufacturing materials)  Wise: Better investment decisions to boost efficiency of labor Our Thinking and Perception (Access to Information) Someday Learning Conversations (nano for compute performance, interface)56 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  57. 57. Accelerating Change 2004 Healthy Rational drug development requires managing enormous complexity. Pharmaceutical companies are beginning to differentiate themselves on the power of their information technology platforms. IT Platform intellectual property is likely to be more valuable than content (gene sequences, metabolic pathways, protein structures, etc.) Personalized Dru e.g., Modafinil enhances Pharmaceuticals gs tr ea tp wakefulness and vigilance he no typ es 1.5 million proteins alternative splicing turns interacting in complex 40,000 genes into 500,000 networks create hundreds of messages millions of metabolic pathways DNA RNA Protein Pathways Phenotype40,000 genes (approx.100 million post translational hundreds of millions ofbases) represent less than 3% of modification turns pathways influenced by thethe genome (approx. 3 billion 500,000 messages environment and stochasticbases). The function of the into 1.5 million processes create 6 billionremaining 97% remains elusive. proteins different individuals Historically, 220 targets have generated $3trillion of value. Industrialized genome sequencing has created a target rich, lead poor environment that will slowly reverse over the next several years as in-silico biology drives the discovery of new lead compounds. DNA to Phenotype = 300 terabytes per person x 6 billion persons = 1800 billion terabytes of data 57 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  58. 58. Accelerating Change 2004WealthyMaterial Goods  Environmentally friendly, sustainable production  Cheaper, Stronger, Lighter, Durable, Active, etc.  Smart, polymorphic, chromatically active materials  Clothing and Textiles – stain resistant  Computing technologies – roll-to-roll manufacturing  Cars and Vehicles  Roads  Houses and Buildings  Furniture and Appliances  Foods58 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  59. 59. Accelerating Change 2004Wise Access to information & better investment decisions Semantic Web and Natural Language Capabilities APPLICATIONS Trillions of Calculations per Second Learning Conversations ---------------------- 100,000 Human Like Behavior “HAL” 10,000 Predictive Modeling 1,000 Protein Folding 100 Nuclear Simulation 10 Chess Playing 1 1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 Peter Bernstein’s against the gods…59 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  60. 60. Accelerating Change 200450 Years: Information technology connecting islands ofinformation (created by people) into larger networks3.00E+17 Growth rates for:2.50E+172.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second1.50E+17 transistors1.00E+17 Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,5.00E+16 fMRI regions scanned per second0.00E+00 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999About 10 billion transistors made per second Info: Bytes storage made per secondin 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per secondICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)60 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  61. 61. Accelerating Change 2004 Model of capabilities: Outside-Inside Framework Nature, Organizations, Technology: But where is the metric? Relative Position Capability Areas External (outside the body; environmental) Materials - Cost, Affordances, Dynamics Agents – Organizations, Bots, Animals Places – Real, Virtual, Mixed Mediators - Tools External (outside the body; personal) Mediators – Wearables, Mobile Tools Internal (inside the body; temporary) Ingestibles – Medicines, Foods Internal (inside the body; permanent) Organs – Implants, Sensor & Effectors Skills – Learning, New Uses of Old Genes – New Species, Devel. ProcessOutside-Inside Framework can be used to analyze the past, and speculate about futures. 61 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  62. 62. Accelerating Change 2004Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & FutureHow much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?  - 100,000 Generations: Speech New Species (Kind of Agent) New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language)  - 500 : Writing New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes)  - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations)  - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization)  - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses) New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones)  -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)  +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?) New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive)  +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?) New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences) New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure) New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system) New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge)  +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?) New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects) Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright62 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  63. 63. Accelerating Change 2004The evolution of business towards a services economy(jobs arise and decline; a rolling shift in needed jobs & skills) U.S. Employment Percentages by Sector 100 90 80 70 Services (Info) 60 Services (Other) 50 40 Industry (Goods) 30 Agriculture 20 10 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March Exploitation versus exploration; services adapt goods to demand63 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  64. 64. Accelerating Change 2004The evolution of business towards “On Demand e-Business” Technology and business innovations are coevolving. Rapid business productivity improvements are driven by technology innovations. Rapid technology improvements are driven by business investments.Moore’s “law” is as much a law of business investment as of technological possibilities. (see http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution) – two systems ratchet each other up. Characteristics of an on-demand e-business. Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizations by Stephan H. Haeckel, Adrian J. Slywotzky 64 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  65. 65. Accelerating Change 2004On demand e-business is enabled by an on demand operating environment.The on demand operating environment mirrors changing work practices Autonomic Virtualized Integration Open Standards65 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  66. 66. Accelerating Change 2004 Evolving Complexity and Interconnections Social Technology Grid Computing Edge Computing IP-based Network Storage Telematics eGovernment Distr and SAN-wide File System P-M IP WAN Wireless Physician Government SAN Mgmt Life Sciences Operational Risk (FSS) Metro Rich Media Industry Groups ASP Hosted Platform Wireless LAN PLM eBiz Mgmt P-M-P High Performance Computing eSourcing Storage Virtualization Business Data Center Procurement Services Multichannel Wireless Utility CPG/CRM Mgmt Managed Storage Services M-M Linux Clusters P-P Unified Communications Cluster Division Video Area Networks Policy-based Automation Mobile Notes M-P-M Autonomic Storage Rack eLiza High Volume Linux Interconnects Department DB2 Everywhere Media Appliance High end Intel Box Server Appliance Pervasive/Mobile Computing Server Blade Autonomic Client Workgroup Devi ce Software Board Wireless Client Knowledge Mgmt M-P Broadband Game Photonics Advanced Personal Chip Person Identity Manager Digital Video eLearning Wireless 3G66 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  67. 67. Accelerating Change 2004The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?From the search for food to the search for information Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983) Source: Pirolli (2002) Energy Information Max [ Energy Time ] Max [ Useful info Time ]67 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  68. 68. Accelerating Change 2004Cognitive Technologies: Where is the knowledge?  Localized in a brain -- yours! Remind: Capture history and augment memory Remediate: Practice with simulation games  Localized in a brain -- but someone else’s brain, soon to be yours too! Receive: Training, for use in known context (exploitation) Reconstruct: Education, for use in unknown context (exploration)  In no one’s brain (yet) -- but someday localized in your brain and/or others. Research: Answer question the first time Reflect: Ask question the first time  Distributed in the collective closure of brains, bodies, and technologies, “no one’s brain”68 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  69. 69. Accelerating Change 2004Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric  Knowledge in our minds is soft capability  Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability  Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability  However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system  Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal given the cognitive capabilities of the system.  How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals?  How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making, and execution performance? Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence by Andy Clark “…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)69 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  70. 70. Accelerating Change 2004 Meta Trends: Exponential Growth s Moores Law - Miniaturization - Continues ²Processing, Storage, ... ²Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months s Metcalfs Law - Interconnection - Continues ²Value of a network increases as the square of the number connections s Gilders Law - Quantization - Continues ²Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months s Negrapontes "Law - Digitization - Emerges ²Superiority of "bits over atoms" ²Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas are ultimate raw material70 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  71. 71. Accelerating Change 2004 Key Megatrends Driving Venture Investment Key Megashifts Switching is shifting from circuits to packets. Data, then voice; Backbone, then access Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic. First long haul, then metro, then local access Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net. IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net Offerings are moving from products to services. "Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, ... knowledge Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico First Genomics, then Proteomics, ... nanotechnologies71 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  72. 72. Accelerating Change 2004 The science: nano-bio-cogno-socio-techno convergence: It’s all about information – encoding, processing, replicating – in different systems (ultimately all grounded in matter patterns) System Encoding Processing Replicating Nano Matter Atoms & Universe to Galactic, Solar, (Nature) Molecules Atoms Planet Systems Bio Life DNA Cells to Evolution (Nature) Ecosystems Cogno Thought Brains Neural Nets Evolution - (Nature/Human) CultureCoevolution Socio Culture People Organizations Evolution - (Human) Culture Techno Technology Artifacts & Bits Computers Design- (Human) Factories Rapidly increasing rates of advancement in each system area is creating cross pollination Examples: FOXP2, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) – Variability, Interaction, Selection 72 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  73. 73. Accelerating Change 2004Biocomplexity: Much prettier picture than my table! Rita Colwell, Former Director National Science Foundation (NSF)73 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  74. 74. Accelerating Change 2004 IBM’s business is helping customers transform their businesses. Services is now 50% of IBM, with rapid growth from strategic outsourcing, help desk, business consulting.•Alternate providers • IBM’s Industry Solutions •IBM’s Customers •IBM’s Services •Services •Sales (IGS) (S&D)•Alternate vendors •IBM’s Partners •IBM’s Platform •Middleware/Software •PartnerWorld (SWG) (Developer Relations) •(DB2, WS, Rational, Tivoli, Lotus) •Boxes/Hardware (Servers, Storage, Personal) •Finance (IGF) •Chips/Technology •IBM Research (IMD, TG) IBM 101 – The New (Post 1995) IBM Ecosystem Revenue: $80+ Billion/Year Employees: 320,000+, about 50% inside-US, 50% outside-US IBM Global Services, approx. 170,000 people in 120 countries 74 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
  75. 75. IBM Global Services Provides e-business Services TELL ME HELP ME DO IT MANAGE IT WHAT TO DO FOR ME Accelerating Change 2004 Strategic Business Innovation Services Outsourcing e-business Strategy Consulting Services Industry Solutions Outsourcing Web Application & Integration Services Application Management Integrated Technology Services e-business e-business Infrastructure Hosting Services Hardware Integration Alliances Colocation to New Technologies: Linux, SAN, Wireless Fully Managed Services Technical Support Services e-sourcing Learning Services November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Learning Services Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr

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