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ICSS 2013, International Confernce on Service Science, Shenzen, China

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  • Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference as: Sphohrer, JC (2013) Refraning Big Data and Service Science. Presentation on April 11 th , 2013 for International Conference on Service Science (ICSS2013).
  • Big Data in business has grown over 60 years from ~10MB to 100PB or a billion times :MB -> GB -> TB –> PB All that Big Data from 1950 can easily be handled by one person’s smart phone Service science is now taught in over 500 universities that we know of and probably at least 2x more that we don’t know about… The number of service science conferences and service science related journals has also expanded
  • What would it take to have a Moore ’s Law for buildings? Or university campuses? Or city infrastructure? In conclusion, a focus on smarter systems and modern service can help cities and universities (along with other industry and government partners) to invest together in sustainable innovations, that both reduces waste and expands capabilities. Perhaps someday we may even discover and equivalent of Moore ’s Law for improving service systems… but until that time, I want to say… ================================ Moore ’s Law is sustained by investments that improve computational systems according to a roadmap Can we create an investment roadmap that will improve service systems according to a roadmap? GIE (Globally Integrated Enterprise) uses a run-transform-innovate investment model for continuous improvement. Run = use existing knowledge, routine operations and maintenance Transform = use industry best practice knowledge to gain the benefits of known improvements Innovation = create new knowledge that allows improvements in both ends and means of service systems, and the resources they configure. As information about service systems doubles each year, and storage, processing, and bandwidth rise, making globally better decisions is an important opportunity to explore. FYI.... short history of transistors, integrated circuits, and data centers From transistors... 1. The transistor is considered by many to be the greatest technology invention of the 20th Century 2. While the concept of the transistor has been around since the 1920's (Canadian Physicist Julius Edgar Lilienfeld's 1925 Patent - devices that use physical phenomenon of field electronic emissions)... 3. Commercially available individual transistors that could be wired into circuits, invented and commercialized in 1947 & 1948 (Bell Labs Shockley Point Contact/Junction Transistor Theory 1947, Raytheon CK703 first commercially available 1948) To Integrated circuits... 4. However, it was not until the late 1950's and early 1960's that manufacturing process advances and commercial applications began using many of them in integrated circuits (TI, Bell Labs, etc.) - Sept 1958 the first integrated circuit (Jack Kilby TI) To Moore's law.... 5. By 1965 Gordon Moore's (Intel) paper stated the number of transistors on a chip would double about every two years (and exponential increase that has over 40 years of confirmation)... 6. The number of transistors manufactured each year (in 2009) is estimated at 10**18 - 3.9 x 10**6 transistors produced in 1957 (tenth anniversary of first transistor) - abut 10**18 transistors manufactured in 2009 (62th anniversary of first transistor) To data centers and "electricity consumption" .... 7. By 2005, data centers and server farms consume 0.5% of total worldwide electricity production (1% if cooling is included) - 2005 consumption equivalent of seventeen 1000 MW powerplants - electric consumption for data centers doubled from 2000 to 2005 Sources: http://semiconductormuseum.com/HistoricTransistorTimeline_Index.htm http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/rhines-globalpress-low-power.pdf http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/3/3/034008/erl8_3_034008.pdf?request-id=7cf4b6e5-498f-4ed4-bfc9-76eda96773ce
  • Think of your smart phone, and the apps – like maps on your smart phone, not perfectly accurate –but not too bad? What value – well that depends a lot on use and context, right?
  • Previous we have talked about three dimensions of Big Data: Volume (the “Scale” from the title of this GTO Topic”), Velocity, is the data at rest or moving – is it a stream or is it a repository of information, and Variety (Big data comes in lots of forms, and techniques are needed to understand and process that variation). Veracity (truth) is the new thought here. Uncertainty comes from a lot of different places, from data itself (nuanced text, sensor precision, model approximation, process uncertainty). We will talk more about those sources of Uncertainty on the next chart.
  • In another GTO topic, we talk about companies who's value is correlated with their ability to derive insight from their data: today we think about companies like Google or Facebook. But we need to be thinking also about Healthcare companies (their medical records are potential business assets with huge value to them if they can monetize insight). Similarly, the ability of a retail company to be able to use its VIP loyalty data, its billing history, and maybe public social media to be able to do targeted marketing, or assess the acceptance of a product or a brand is potentially enormous. When we look at where this explosive data growth is coming from we see that it is messy stuff: text, images, videos, audio, sensor data This is true inside the firewall as well. Manufacturers have large physical assets that are sensor-connected that have to be managed. Using these sensors with process models for equipment breakdown provides an ability to plan better. Better planning reduces costs. On the next chart we will talk about some of these applications.
  • is the w iring of a Monkey Brain showing the connectivity of the primary visual area. This diagram shows white matter (or long-distance) wiring diagram of the brain. Each box is a brain area. Each white line is a connection ( ~ 400 areas and ~7,000 connections) Recent Simulation of the Brain Using novel techniques we have simulated a rat scale brain 55 million neurons, 448 billion synapses Simulation was run on BlueGene Watson Develop an artificial nano-synapse Based on novel synaptronic elements (MTJ, PCM) Develop an artificial cortex chip for a mouse and later for a cat Based on the artificial nano-synapses Using the simulator to validate the design Demonstrate by running a virtual mouse and cat through a virtual maze in a 3D virtual world Mouse and cat will be controlled by the artificial brain
  • See: http://www.modha.org/ has latest progress Cognitive Computing - http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/business_analytics/article/cognitive_computing.html Researchers at IBM have been working on a cognitive computing project called Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic Scalable Electronics (SyNAPSE). By reproducing the structure and architecture of the brain—the way its elements receive sensory input, connect to each other, adapt these connections, and transmit motor output—the SyNAPSE project models computing systems that emulate the brain's computing efficiency, size and power usage without being programmed. IBM is combining principles from nanoscience, neuroscience and supercomputing as part of a multi-year cognitive computing initiative. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has awarded approximately US$21 million in new funding for phase 2 of the SyNAPSE project. For this project, a world-class, multi-dimensional team has been assembled, consisting of IBM researchers and collaborators from Columbia University; Cornell University; University of California, Merced; and University of Wisconsin-Madison.
  • Today ’s Talk NSF NBIC graphic – Converging Technology Service Science Handbook graphic All of the leading brands, be they corporations or universities, began as start-ups and grew… to maintain their leading status they need to innovate… apply knowledge to create great value for many. Today I want to talk to you about Innovation, including global corporations like IBM and Nations like the US, Denmark, and Sweden…. The context for the discussion is knowledge economics, and how knowledge gets applied to create value for others…. As the planet gets smarter, it will take less time for new knowledge to create value in the economy. I repeat, as the planet gets smarter it will take less time for new knowledge to create value in the economy. Service is defined as the application of knowledge to create value for others, so the science of service, service systems, and service innovation is key to creating a smarter planet, and using Big Data to make better decisions. Finally, I will talk about Smarter Regions, because where ever I travel in the world, this is the front and center topic, how to co-invest with others to create the infrastructure, skills, jobs, businesses, and institutions for the future, and it requires close collaboration of government, academia, business, and the social sector. A colleague of mine who recently visited Dubai for example, mentioned to me that one of the leaders in Dubai, said “My father road a camel, I drive a BMW, my children drive Land Rovers, their children will most likely drive Land Rovers, but their children, three generations out, may be back to riding camels when the oil & gas run out….” Even if you are not worried about your region running out of a precision natural resource, you are probably worried about maintaining a growing stock of knowledge that ensures high skills & high pay jobs for generations to come.” This is one reasons the universities, startups, and foundations are so important to the future of smarter regions.
  • Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM#cite_note-10K-0 http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33341.wss http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
  • IBM is a globally integrated enterpise, over $100B revenue per year, and over 400,000 employees – a huge corporation by any standards… but what do they do?
  • Most people have heard of the IBM brand, and they say IBM makes computers… But “Lenovo purchased IBM's personal computer business and acquired the ThinkPad brand in 2005. “ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThinkPad
  • What IBM is really apply IT knowledge and capabilities to help build a Smarter Planet…. One that using computing as a service (cloud computing) to help individuals and institutions make better decisions from systems that are more instrumened, interconnected, and intelligent… IBM is applying Information Technologies, including PowerPC computer chips, PureSystems, Mainframes, Blue Gene supercomputers, in giant cloud computing data centers around the world, grinding away on Big Data, to help apply knowledge to create value for others – businesses and governments around the world… IBM is also one of the largest software companies in the world and has acquired on average one business a month for the last 10 years. IBM has also been the top company for number of patents issues per year for 18 years in a row… And IBM has sponsored the ACM programming competition for over a decade – identifying some of the worlds best programming talent… IBM is also one of the largest service businesses in the world… applying knowledge in the form of 100,000 of skilled professionals geographically distributed in 100 of nations and all the top cities in the world…
  • The evolution of service science is to apply service science to create a Smarter Planet. What is smarter planet? A smarter planet is built out of many harmonized smarter systems, systems that are instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent (data, models, and analytics software are used to make better decisions) The world is instrumented meaning everything has computers, cameras, gps or other sensors – cars, stop lights, signs, roads, hospitals, retail stores, rivers, bridges, etc.. The world is getting more and more interconnected. If we could capture the right data and analyze it, we can make our planet smarter. IBM has been working on cleaning up pollution in Galway Bay, Ireland. The marine scientists told the IBMers that the mussels in the water close their shells when something bad enters the water. So IBM put sensors in some of the mussels and connected the sensors to an alert system and visualization system. When a pollutant enters the water, the mussels shut their shells, the sensors sends an alert and water management officials begin to take action to clean it up. Over time, they realize that a particular ship may be coming into the bay every other Tuesday, causing the problem, and they can go after the ship company to not drop pollutants or to find another way to rid of waste. This optimization takes place with other causes of the pollutants.
  • Story: http://www-01.ibm.com/software/success/cssdb.nsf/CS/SSAO-8BQ2D3?OpenDocument&Site=corp&cty=en_us Image: http://infosthetics.com/archives/2010/03/babies_now_crawling_in_infographical_data.html
  • Transportation is essential for flows and buildings are essential for human development Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin
  • Picture: https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/mydeveloperworks/blogs/782c981b-356f-4bd8-b494-da4da4899e70/entry/streetline_the_ibm_global_entrepreneur_of_the_year_real_time_success_continues54?lang=en Story https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/mydeveloperworks/blogs/782c981b-356f-4bd8-b494-da4da4899e70/entry/zia_yusuf_ceo_streetline_tips_to_winning_ibm_smartcamp2?lang=en
  • Cities are about 2% of the land area, with 50% of the popuoation and 75% of the energy consumption, and 80% of the carbon emissions, according to Carolo Ratti who heads MIT Senseable Cities at MIT Media Lab. Of course, while the buildings and transportation in cities are important – what is really important are the people…. Headline: TED talk: Carlo Ratti (MIT) Architecture that senses and resonds http://www.ted.com/talks/carlo_ratti_architecture_that_senses_and_responds.html
  • No wheels on suitcases… in 1988… When thinking about change…. It is useful to think in terms of two generations… What was the world like in 1988 What will the world be like in 2030 MIT Tuition fees 1988 ~10K by 2012 ~40K by 2030 ~100K http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_tuition_in_the_United_States Photo recent college graduate: http://www.prlog.org/11878039-the-secrets-to-hiring-recent-college-graduates-edition.html Photo baby: http://images2.baby-connect.com/images/baby2.gif
  • In the future, robots will drive most of the cars – faster, safer, and more economically than people can. Of course, the future is already here, it is just not well distributed. The state of Nevada was the first state to allow self-driving vehicles to legally drive on their roads, as of June 22, 2011. http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/06/22/nevada-passes-law-authorizing-driverless-cars/ Headline: Robot Car Helps Blind Man Get a Taco March 29th, 2012 http://www.robotshop.com/blog/robot-car-helps-blind-man-get-a-taco-1564 Self-Driving Car Test – Steve Mahan
  • Photo of tap water: http://aquatecuk.wordpress.com/2011/09/27/how-safe-%E2%80%98really%E2%80%99-is-our-tap-water-for-drinking/ Story http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/environment/2011-03-03-1Apurewater03_CV_N.htm
  • 3D printed clothing, dresses, shirts, pants, hats, shoes, etc. http://www.dezeen.com/2010/08/11/crystallization-by-iris-van-herpen-daniel-wright-and-mgx-by-materialise/ Imagine cars and other products, being part of local physical supply chains. Manufacturing as a local recycling and assembly service Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin Circular Economy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI Circular Economy for China 10x productivity gains http://www.indigodev.com/Circular1.html
  • One possible energy source is water to hydrogen and oxygen (via sun) and then back to water. Photos and stories: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/artificial-leaf-0930.html http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-how-an-artificial-leaf-can-solve-power-crisis/20110329.htm
  • 2030 ICT or Information Communication Technology will be really smart phones… http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/09/07/ibms-watson-on-smartphones-will-lead-to-business-analytics-unchained/ IBM does continue to innovate in computing, technology but to build a Smarter Planet – what matters is both the computers and how those computers are used to create value for others. To demonstrate the new of age of Smarter Computing on a Smarter Planet IBM developed a demonstration project of using a the Watson Deep Question-Answering Technology to score higher than the world ’s best Jeopardy! players in an exhibition match on television game show Jeopardy! Imagine by 2030 the majority of people on the planet will have a smart phone that is like a cognitive bulldozer, smarter than watson in their pocket. For example, I have given teams of 3 students big data problems that took 3 students 3 months to analyze and report back to me on, that my smart phone will do for me in less than three minutes by 2030. Probably …. What will it mean when nearly everyone has access to smarter computing – this is one thing IBM is investigating the future of information technology on a Smarter Planet. Today just one of IBM Power 7 chips has more transistors that all the transistors in the world when I was born… “ Each core is capable of four-way simultaneous multithreading (SMT). The POWER7 has approximately 1.2 billion transistors and is 567 mm2 large fabricated on a 45 nm process.” And runs at between 3-4 Ghz. Puresystems are optimized personal clouds with self service application deployment – a range of businesses from day trading systems to small retail businesses…
  • What most people don ’t know is IBM worked closed with 8 universities in order to develop Watson….
  • In the future, robots will build and recycle whole buildings in a matter of hours. Already at Dongting lake in the Hunan Province in China, the Broad group has used prefab architecture to construct a 30 story building in 15 days (360 hours). When robots are used for construction and recycling, it will be even faster and more cost efficient. The building was stronger, safer, and more energy efficient than previous Broad group hotels. We often think of resiliency as the ability to recover very quickly, after a natural disaster or other external shock to a system. In the future resiliency will be more about rebuilding and recycling quickly to take advantage of newer and better materials, and ways of doing things. The external shocks to the system will more often than not be new innovations, not natural disasters… Headline: 30 stories in 15 days (story on Jan 10 th 2012 – built on Dec 31 2011) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/30-story-hotel-constructed-in-15-days_n_1197991.html
  • Leading Through Connections http://www.ibm.com/ceostudy2012 Infographic http://simpliflying.com/2011/infographic-the-future-of-loyalty-program-will-be-powered-by-social-media/
  • Infographic http://www.appsblogger.com/kickstarter-infographic/ http://www.appsblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Kickstarter-Infographic-thumbnail.jpg Science to Deployment http://www.energy.ca.gov/research/buildings/demonstrations.html
  • Photo of Da Vinci Surgical Systems http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Da_Vinci_Surgical_System http://www.davincisurgery.com/davinci-surgery/davinci-surgical-system/http://www.rapidtoday.com/future.html 3D Printed Organs http://www.rapidtoday.com/images/bioprinted%20heart.jpg http://www.makerbot.com/blog/2011/03/08/3d-printing-an-organ-live-onstage-at-ted/
  • There are many visions of the future – and many show innovations that improve quality of life… by improving the way we interact to co-create value with others… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0
  • Before we talk about the future of technology…. We should remember rules matter a lot too…. How we design systems matters….. Both how we design the technology & the rules (or institutions we live in) matters a lot… It matters for four key measures of systems – innovativeness, equity, sustainability, and resiliency… Societal performance on these four measures depends on technology (infrastructure), rules (institutions), skills (individuals), and what we value interms of quality of life (information)… Why are these people smiling? Every year NFL (National Football League) teams select the best new college players who indicate they are eligible for the NFL Draft…. Stanford ’s quarterback Andrew Luck is one the best from 2011 What ’s interesting is the Indianapolis Colts, the team he will play for the next decade, is one of the worst Source: http://www.rgj.com/viewart/20120426/SPORTS/304260061/NFL-draft-Colts-take-Stanford-QB-Andrew-Luck-open-draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft
  • http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444734804578062802698020758.html Where All NFL Teams Are Created Equal After six weeks of the NFL season, there's been one topic dominating the conversation: No team is dominating. The NFL has spent the last two decades touting its parity—the idea that any team can win on any given Sunday (or Monday or Thursday). But this year, parity has truly run wild. Since the NFL moved to its current division format in 2002, no division has ever had all its teams tied this late in the season—until this year. The four AFC East teams all have 3-3 records. Only two teams in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, have winning records. Making one stadium home for both the New York Giants and the New York Jets requires an intricate changeover - from endzone logos, lighting, tee-shirts, banners, artwork - sometimes in just 12 hours. See the tricks used, including how the crew shuffles those 2,000-pound endzone trays. With 'Off Duty' Host Wendy Bounds. But here's the wackiest thing: Through six weeks, 11 of the NFL's 32 teams are 3-3. The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation, in which they simulated the first six weeks of the NFL season 10,000 times, assuming all teams were exactly the same, but factoring in a slight home-field advantage edge. (Home teams won 57.8% of the time from 1978-2011.) So what would the result be if every NFL team were exactly the same? Odds dictate there would be 10.1 teams with a 3-3 record. In other words, this year's current standings (with 11 3-3 teams) have more parity than a hypothetical league in which every team was of equal strength. "We've had parity before but now what you are seeing is it's squeezing toward the middle more and more," said Houston Texans owner Bob McNair. — Kevin Clark, Michael Salfino
  • Image courtesy of my colleague Jean Paul Jacob, at Berkeley So again, wherever I go leaders and citizens want to make sure their region is getting smarter…. Increasing their capacities for knowledge creation and knowledge application to create value for themselves and future generations, more competitively and more sustainably…
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • IBM gathers statistics related to the five 6 R ’s on 5000 universities world wide… The best relations between IBM and universities involve what we call the five R ’s – Research (or open collaborative research with a focus on grand challenge problems for business and society), Readiness (or skills), Recruiting (or jobs working on teams to building a smarter planet), Revenue (which is more and more about public-private partnerships that connect great universities and great cities), Responsibility (where IBM employees share their expertise, time, and resources with universities – including IBM guest lecturing in courses or judging student competitions), and Regions – newest and most important working with regional innovation ecosystems, in conjunction with our IBM Global Entrepreneurs program and SmartCamps…. About 15-20% of awards are in the analytics areas, and we see that growing to 25-33% this coming year and the future…. For more information: http://www.ibm.com/university Bay Area numbers… 300 fulltime hires in last five years 400 interns and co-ops students over 1000 employees who are alumni, between 2-10% executives over $3M in research and matching grant awards, over five times that in matching from government good customers of IBM
  • Edu-Impact.Com: Growing Importance of Universities with Large, Growing Endowments Recently visited Yang building at Stanford One of the greenest buildings on the planet But if it does not evolve in 20 years it will not be the greenest building Visited supercomputers – we have two at IBM Almaden – there was a time they were in the top 100 supercomputers in the world – not any more …. So a Moore ’s law of buildings is more than cutting waste in half every year, it is also about the amount of time it takes to structural replace the material with newer and more modern materials that provide benefits…
  • Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems… Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “ off the chart ” – China projected to be “ off the chart ” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation ’ s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “ off the chart ” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
  • http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-college Posted below are 21 statistics about college tuition, student loan debt and the quality of college education in the United States.... #1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent . #2 In 2010, the average college graduate had accumulated approximately $25,000 in student loan debt by graduation day. #3 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loans . #4 Americans have accumulated well over $900 billion in student loan debt. That figure is higher than the total amount of credit card debt in the United States. #5 The typical U.S. college student spends less than 30 hours a week on academics. #6 According to very extensive research detailed in a new book entitled "Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses", 45 percent of U.S. college students exhibit "no significant gains in learning" after two years in college. #7 Today, college students spend approximately 50% less time studying than U.S. college students did just a few decades ago. #8 35% of U.S. college students spend 5 hours or less studying per week. #9 50% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to write more than 20 pages. #10 32% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to read more than 40 pages in a week. #11 U.S. college students spend 24% of their time sleeping, 51% of their time socializing and 7% of their time studying. #12 Federal statistics reveal that only 36 percent of the full-time students who began college in 2001 received a bachelor's degree within four years. #13 Nearly half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners. #14 According to the Economic Policy Institute, the unemployment rate for college graduates younger than 25 years old was 9.3 percent in 2010. #15 One-third of all college graduates end up taking jobs that don't even require college degrees. #16 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees. #17 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees. #18 In the United States today, approximately 365,000 cashiers have college degrees. #19 In the United States today, 24.5 percent of all retail salespersons have a college degree. #20 Once they get out into the "real world", 70% of college graduates wish that they had spent more time preparing for the "real world" while they were still in school. #21 Approximately 14 percent of all students that graduate with student loan debt end up defaulting within 3 years of making their first student loan payment. http://www.citytowninfo.com/career-and-education-news/articles/georgetown-university-study-shows-a-bachelors-degree-in-stem-pays-off-11102002 About 65 percent of individuals with bachelor's degrees in STEM subjects commanded greater salaries than those with master's degrees in non-STEM fields, according to a Georgetown press release. Likewise, 47 percent of college graduates with bachelor's degrees in STEM fields earn higher wages than those with doctoral degrees in non-STEM subjects.
  • What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems? Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance. =============\\ Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
  • Ready for Life-Long-Learning Ready for Teamwork Ready to Help Build a Smarter Planet T-shaped people are ready for Teamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one culture, one discipline and one systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other cultures, disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
  • There are many opportunities for educational institutions to specialize. Better tuned competence of individuals allows graduates to hit the ground running and better fill roles in business and societal institutions…. Better general education will allow more rapid learning of an arbitrary area of specialization, and create a more flexible labor force… All service systems transform something – perhaps the location, availability, and configuration of materials (flow of things), or perhaps people and what they do (people ’s activities), or perhaps the rules of the game, constraints and consequences (governance). How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
  • However, it is also arguable that universities are important for resiliency… Source: http://www.nyu.edu/about/leadership-university-administration/office-of-the-president/redirect/speeches-statements/global-network-university-reflection.html
  • First, thanks for coming to the talk today, and if you find yourself in the US and California, please come visit me at the IBM Almaden Research Center in San Jose, the Capitol of Silicon Valley. And bring your hiking shoes, because I like to take my meetings when possible as hikes, in the 800 acre county park that surrounds the Almaden Center. The snow is actually a rare event, most days are sunny and warm.
  • Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (spohrer@us.ibm.com) This talk provided a concise introduction to SSME+D evolving, and applying Service Science to build a Smarter Planet… Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2010) Presentation: SSME+D (for Design) Evolving: Update on Service Science Progress & Directions. Event. Place. Date. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com But I want to end by sharing some relevant quotes… The first you may have seen on TV or heard on the radio – it is from IBM – Instrumented, Interconnected, Intellient – Let ’s build a smarter planet (more on this one shortly) Second, If we are going to build a smarter planet, let ’s start by building smarter cities, (as we will see cities turn out to be ideal building blocks to get right for a number of reasons) And if we focus on cities, then the quote from the Foundation Metropolitan paints the right picture, cities learning from cities learning from cities… The next is probably the best known quote in the group “think global, act local” (we will revisit this important thought) Since all the major cities of the world have one or more universities, the next quote is of interest “the future is born in universities” And two more well known quotes about the future – the best way to predict the future is to build it, and the future is already here… it is just not evenly distributed. The next quote is an important one for discipline specialists at universities to keep in mind – real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries (so be on guard for myopic solutions that appear too good to be true, they often are!)… Because if we are not careful, today ’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions… And since we cannot anticipate all risks or quickly resolve them once we notice them, we should probably never forget what HG Wells said - that history is a race between education and catastrophe… In a world of accelerating change, this last statement also serves as a reminder that the pace of real innovation in education is a good target for study in terms of smarter systems and modern service…
  • What improves quality of life? Service system innovations. Every day we are customers of 13 types of service systems. If any of them fail, we have a “bad day” (Katrina New Orleans) I have been to two service science related conferences recently, one in Japan on Service Design and one in Portugal on Service Marketing… the papers from the proceedings of the conferences mapped onto all of these types of service systems… The numbers in yellow: 61 papers Service Design (Japan) / 75 papers Service Marketing (Portugal) / 78 Papers Service-Oriented Computing (US) Number in yellow Fist number: Service Design Conference, Japan 2 nd International Service Innovation Design Conference (ISIDC 2010), Future University Hakodate, Japan Second number Service Marketing Conference, Portugal, AMA SERVSIG at U Porto, Portugal Numbers in yellow: Number of AMA ServSIG 2010 abstracts that study each type of service system… (http://www.servsig2010.org/) Of 132 total abstracts… 10 studies all types of service systems 19 could not be classified In a moment we will look at definitions of quality of life, but for the moment, consider that everyday we all depend on 13 systems to have a relatively high quality of life, and if any one of these systems goes out or stops providing good service, then our quality of life suffers…. Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Information, Buildings, Retail, Banking & Financial Services (like credit cards), Healthcare, Education, and Government at the City, State, and National levels…. Volcanic ash, hurricanes, earthquakes, snow storms, floods are some of the types of natural disasters that impact the operation of these service systems – but human made challenges like budget crises, bank failures, terrorism, wars, etc. can also impact the operation of these 13 all important service systems. Moreover, even when these systems are operating normally – we humans may not be satisfied with the quality of service or the quality of jobs in these systems. We want both the quality of service and the quality of jobs in these systems to get better year over year, ideally, but sometimes, like healthcare and education, the cost of maintaining existing quality levels seems to be a challenge as costs continue to rise… why is that “smarter” or sustainable innovation, which continuously reduces waste, and expands the capabilities of these systems is so hard to achieve? Can we truly achieve smarter systems and modern service? A number of organizations are asking these questions – and before looking at how these questions are being formalized into grand challenge questions for society – let’s look at what an IBM report concluded after surveying about 400 economists…. ==================== Quality of life for the average citizen (voter) depends on the quality of service and quality of jobs in 13 basic systems….. Local progress (from the perspective of the average citizen or voter) can be defined for our purposes as (quality of service & jobs) + returns (the provider, which is really the investor perspective, the risk taker in provisioning the service) + security (the authority or government perspective on the cost of maintaining order, and dealing with rules and rule violations) + smarter (or the first derivative – does all this get better over time – parents often talk about wanting to help create a better world for their children - sustainable innovation, means reducing waste, being good stewards of the planet, and expanding our capabilities to do things better and respond to challenges and outlier events better)…. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people ’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM ’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach. Employment data… 2008 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm A. 3+0.4+0.5+8.9+1.4+2.0=16.2 B. C.13.1+1.8=14.9 Total 150,932 (100%) Transportation (Transportation and Warehousing 4,505 (3%)) Water & Waste (Utilities 560 (0.4%)) Food & Manufacturing (Mining 717 (0.5%), Manufacturing 13,431 (8.9%), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,098 (1.4%)) Energy & Electricity Information (Information 2,997 (2%)) Construction (Construction 7,215 (4.8%)) Retail & Hospitality (Wholesale Trade 5,964 (4.0%), Retail Trade 15,356 (10.2%), Leisure and hospitality 13,459 (8.9%)) Financial & Banking/Business & Consulting (Financial activities 8,146 (5.4%), Professional and business services 17,778 (11.8%), Other services 6,333 (4.2%)) Healthcare (Healthcare and social assistance 15,819 (10.5%) Education (Educational services 3,037 (2%), Self-employed and unpaid family 9,313 (6.2%), Secondary jobs self-employed and unpaid family 1,524 (1.0%)) City Gov State Gov (State and local government 19,735 (13.1%)) Federal Gov (Federal government 2,764 (1.8%))
  • Service systems and knowledge access evolving Nested, networked holistic product-service systems that provide “Whole Service” to the people-inside Source: Whole Service http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056 Source: Third Stream http://www2.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/Research/CCPN/pdf/russell_report_thirdStream.pdf
  • Edu-Impact.Com: Growing Importance of Universities with Large, Growing Endowments Recently visited Yang building at Stanford One of the greenest buildings on the planet But if it does not evolve in 20 years it will not be the greenest building Visited supercomputers – we have two at IBM Almaden – there was a time they were in the top 100 supercomputers in the world – not any more …. So a Moore ’s law of buildings is more than cutting waste in half every year, it is also about the amount of time it takes to structural replace the material with newer and more modern materials that provide benefits…
  • We all know that economists have been reporting on the growth of the service economy for the last century… Over the last two hundred years, the US has shifted from agriculture to manufacturing to service jobs, as dominant. The growth in service jobs parallels the growth of the information economy, and many of the jobs are knowledge-intensive, including finance, health, education, government, B2B, etc. Developed and emerging markets are seeing the same shift – this is a global trend. What was clear was that all developed and emerging market nations where shifting to service economies due to increasing use of technology in manufacturing and agriculture (productivity increases), and increasing use of information technology in traditional service areas, including utilities, building maintenance, retail & hospitality, finance, health, education, and government – making the service sector more knowledge-intensive and requiring more technical skills. As well as more outsourcing, leading to more B2B service. In the back-up slides we introduce the concept of product-service-systems to better understand the way the global economies are evolving… ServicesOLD= Not Natural or Manufactured Products (Negative) ServiceNEW = Applying Knowledge/Resources to Benefit Customers/Stakeholders (Positive) Why does outsourcing the jobs or changing the business model (e.g., leasing, mass-customizaton) cause the category to change? It shouldn ’t, modern farms and factories are service systems too… See the following papers… Vargo & Lusch (2004) Evolving to a New Dominant Logic for Marketing. Journal of Marketing. Tien & Berg (2006) On Services Research and Education. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. Two ways the Firm can think about the world: Firm – can I think of things my customers want to own, and how can I make and sell those things. Firm – can I think of ongoing relationships/interactions with my customers and their stakeholders, and how can I establish and continuously improve those interactions in a win-win manner Fact: Service growth in “national economies” All nations are experiencing a macro-economic shift from value in producing physical things (agriculture and goods) to value from apply capabilities for the benefit of others (services). Observation: Service sector is where the job growth is, not only in the US but around the world. Implication: Most science and engineering and management jobs will be in the service sector. For example, Kenneth Smith of H.B.Maynard (one of the oldest and most prestigious industrial engineering consulting firms) said - “Historically, most of our business at H.B. Maynard was manufacturing, today roughly 80% is in the retail sector…” So why do we still train most scientist and engineers for manufacturing age jobs? Could this be part of the reason that in most US engineering schools only 50% of entering engineering students graduate with an engineering degree? The service sector is the fastest growing segment of global economies. In the US, in 1800 90% of people were worked on farms, and today less than 3% of workers are employed in agriculture. Goods, or manufacturing of physical products, peaked in the US in the mid-1950 ’s and has been decreasing ever since due to automation and off shoring. However, services, especially complex information and business services, as we will see is where the growth is. But the growth in the service sector jobs is not just in the developed countries, it is also happening in the developing countries. In fact, the International Labor Organization, reports that 2006 was the first time in human history that more people worker in the service sector than in agriculture world wide. 40% in service sector, 39.7% in agriculture, and 21.3% in manufacturing, with the growth coming by moving people from agriculture to services – this represents the largest labor force migration in human history. 1970 estimates % of service in labor force (change to 2005/2009 est) China 12 +17 142% India 17 +6 35% US 62 +14 23% Indonesia 29 +10 34% Brazil 41 +25 61% Russia 42 +27 64% Japan 48 +19 45% Nigeria 16 +3 19% Bangledesh 19 +7 37% Germany 45 +19 42%
  • What you may not know is that manufacturing companies are also seeing a growth in service revenue… from financing to maintenance to customer support services, because of the growing complexity of products… IBM has seen its service revenue grow, and lead the growth of IBM in the last two decades. In the last two decades the growth was B2B, in the coming decade it will be B2G service growth – powered in part by shared service across government and cloud computing… Fact: Service growth in “manufacturing” businesses 2008 GTS 40 (39.2) GBS 20 (19.6) SWG 22 (22.1) S&T 20 (19.2) FIN 2 (2.6) Total 103.6B Profit 45.6% 2010 GTS 38.2B GBS 18.2B -> 56.4B HW 18.0B SW 22.5B FIN 2.2B -> 42.7B Source: http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
  • As we think about the future of cities and universities, as an optimist, I see future cities and universities better than they are today… what IBM calls a Smarter Planet is such a vision -- today cities and universities sustain our high quality of living on the planet -- we believe they do an even better job in the future – in future cities and universities, we can all do a better job of applying, creating, and transferring knowledge generation over generation… http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf In a recent survey of young Californians, 90% said internet access was essential for a high quality of life, and 50% said access to a smart phone was essential for a high quality of life. Some would say that the middle-class person today lives better than king ’s did a thousand years ago… perhaps that is true in terms of material comforts… and in 1836 Nathan Rothschild the richest many in the British Empire, perhaps the world died of an infected abscess… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Mayer_Rothschild By the time an infected abscess caused his death in 1836, his personal net worth amounted to 0.62% of British national income.
  • KPIs = Key Performance Indicators, the measures of service system performance Focus on service system resources, access rights, stakeholders (value propositions), and measures (KPIs) Calculating ROI and Success Rate for an industrial service research group 4 outstanding at $100M each and 11 accomplishments at $10M each = $510M business impact result in 7 years 2 outstanding at $100M each and 9 accomplishments at $10M each = $290M business impact result in 6 years 290M/8x ROI = 36M of base funding for 210 Person-years (36M/210 = $172K/person base funding level) 210 person years over six years = 10,20,40,50,50,40 (in year one there were 10 people, in year two 20 people, in year 3 40 people, etc.) Accomplishments (12 PY, 3-5 person, 2-4 years) = expected 12 PY (4 x 3) Outstanding (24 PY additional, 6-10 persons, 2-4 years) = additional 24 PY (8 x 3) = +24 is 12+24 = 36 So 2 outstandings take 36 (36 PY) and 9 accomplishments 12 (12 PY) = 2 * 36 + 9 x 12 = 72 + 108 = 180 (one could ask if this double counts on outstandings, since it pre-supposes and earlier accomplishment – in fact most accomplishments have more than $100M impact, so this is OK). 180/210 = 0.86 = 86% success rate (a big debate in research organizations is what should the success rate be – 100% success rate probably implies you are not taking enough risk, so learning/returns will not be maximized long-term) (put another way – solving really, really hard problems is not 100% guaranteed, but if they are solved they can pay enormous dividends; sometimes more so than simpler problems to solve) CBM = Component Business Model (Models of over 70 industries, decomposed into 100-200 business components/service systems, with associated KPIs) IDG = Intelligent Document Gateway (Process improvement workbench - process automation, business rules engines, authoring capability, document scan capability, etc.) SDM = Solution Design Manager (complex service offerings delivered globally are hard to describe, cost, price, and allow teams to collaboratively develop and iterate) BIW = Business Insight Workbench (unstructured text analytics, data mining, structured analytics, automatic taxonomy, trend analysis, co-occurrence statistics, etc.) COBRA = Corporate Brand Reputation Analysis (data mine blogs and customer service data, etc. for insights) SIMPLE = Patent Analytics (data mine patents and technical publications, etc. for insights) IoFT = Impact of Future Technologies (future studies method to identify signposts, and data mine for trends, etc.)
  • In today ’s talk we will be thinking together about the future…. What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities… I show this for two reasons: - I believe computers will soon be helping policymakers and others explore future possibilities better - I want us to be thinking about resiliency of our systems in the future, and what are the weakest links in creating resilient cities and universities… what do we do if the computers go down, when we depend more and more on technology for a high quality of life? Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/cartoon-what-is-the-meaning-of-life
  • Let ’ s take a moment here to give you an idea of how this history and evolution is shaping our work today and making a real difference in the world: [pick a few examples to bring our work to life] - Hudson River: The River and Estuary Network (REON) is a new way of observing, understanding, and predicting how large river and estuary ecosystems work ultimately will enable Beacon Institute for Rivers and Estuaries to translate that knowledge into better policy, management and education for the Hudson River and for rivers and estuaries worldwide. Helping make sense of all that data is a new stream computing architecture developed by IBM ’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center called InfoSphere Streams - Tokyo traffic: IBM Research—Tokyo and the Department of Social Informatics at Kyoto University have jointly developed a system that can simulate a broad range of urban transportation situations involving millions of vehicles. These large-scale, high-speed simulations provide real-time analysis of traffic status, levels of carbon dioxide emission, traffic volume, and travel time throughout a metropolitan area. - Preemie babies: Scientists from IBM ’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center, working with the University of Ontario Institute of Technology and The Hospital for Sick Children, went to work applying a new advanced data analysis paradigm, called stream computing, to build a solution that enables massive amounts of data to be correlated and analyzed for patterns. The software can ingest a constant stream of biomedical data, such as electrocardiogram, heart rate, blood pressure, oxygen saturation and respiration. With this information in hand, researchers were able to develop a data processing engine that is flexible, reliable and scalable to support multiple rules on multiple information streams for multiple patients. Improving business performance - EDISON: Scientists from IBM Research—Zurich are working with a Denmark-based collaborative to explore the use of electric vehicles as a storage device for smoothing power fluctuations from renewable resources—especially wind power—on the Danish island of Bornholm. By developing smart technologies that synchronize the charging of electric vehicles with the availability of wind in the grid, IBM researchers can help utility companies determine when an increased share of power in the system should be supplied to conventional electricity demand, and when excess electricity should be directed toward charging electric vehicles—thereby helping to create an interconnected and sustainable energy system. - Cosco: By providing a deeper understanding of overall supply chain logistics, IBM Research— China developed “Green Supply Chain,” an analytical tool that helps clients optimize their business decisions for lower CO2 emissions, lower cost and improved service levels—or all three simultaneously. After receiving a detailed analysis of its operations, COSCO reduced the number of its distribution centers from 100 to 40, lowered logistics costs by nearly 25 percent and reduced CO2 emissions by 15 percent. From an environmental perspective, these reductions enabled COSCO to avoid 100,000 tons per year of CO2 emissions, while maintaining service levels for clients and incurring no additional costs. - Repsol : Repsol, one of the 10 largest private oil companies in the world, was seeking ways to reduce the number of dry holes drilled and to shorten the time to first oil in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Since the region is known for complex geological conditions, Repsol worked with scientists from IBM ’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center to build a powerful new system capable of running the next generation of seismic algorithms. Impacting society on a global scale - PHIAD : Scientists from IBM Research—Haifa and IBM Research—Almaden have developed a unique, open standards-based architecture for MECIDS called the Public Health Information Affinity Domain (PHIAD). Currently being implemented, this security-rich, Web-based portal system enables the sharing of public health data electronically, and paves the way for sophisticated and advanced analysis tools for visualizing the population health, detecting disease outbreaks, determining the effectiveness of policy and performing forecast modeling. - Spoken Web: Scientists from IBM Research—Haifa and IBM Research—Almaden have developed a unique, open standards-based architecture for MECIDS called the Public Health Information Affinity Domain (PHIAD). Currently being implemented, this security-rich, Web-based portal system enables the sharing of public health data electronically, and paves the way for sophisticated and advanced analysis tools for visualizing the population health, detecting disease outbreaks, determining the effectiveness of policy and performing forecast modeling. - Nanomembranes: At IBM Research—Almaden, the materials, processes and computational models originally developed for nanotechnology currently are being leveraged for application in desalination and water purification. These so-called nano-membranes, smart materials measuring only nanometers in width, have the potential to significantly reduce energy requirements for filtration. See IBM Research Brochure for additional detail on all examples. http://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2010/02/res_research_brochure_2010.html Short descriptions below:
  • History of IBM in San Jose http://www.almaden.ibm.com/almaden20/history.shtml
  • Some processes are inherently uncertain. We do not know with precision how long it takes to drive from A to B, nor how many and which chips on a wafer will pass quality tests. Uncertainty comes from the data as well, in lots of ways: text (typos, ambiguities, conflict) – are these two people the same? Can I find evidence by looking at lots of data that they are, or are not? If I do then I have reduced that uncertainty. We have already talked some about sensors. It is well known that location-finding techniques do not work well in complex environments, like cities – we will talk more about that later, but the issue is a simple one. One would think that processing geospatial (GPS) data is core to managing a city – how good a job can I do if the location information is poor for assets like maintenance trucks, fire trucks, police. Finally, there are new kinds of data uncertainty that come from things like social media: rumors, lies, falsehoods, wishful thinking. One has to distinguish the nuggets from the ore. One can look online to see many postings about contaminated baby food making its way from China to the US in 2008. Those rumors turned out not to be true – how does a system that processes petabytes of text understand these nuances – how to train it such a system. Finally there are model uncertainties – we often approximate complex environments in order to be able to query them more efficiently – approximating collection of points with a line or forecasting a hurricane. But we must understand that using these models we do not have perfect answers, and we have to take into account these imperfections in business decisions. The good news is that we (IBM) have been managing a business with uncertain processes models, and data for many years – the semiconductor manufacturing business is based on driving wafer processes until the yield is good enough to scale into production – we are used to uncertainty bars here, at the manufacturing level, and at the micro level where we are studying the physical and chemical processes of nanostructures. The challenge is to understand how we deal with uncertainty when we try to analyze big data – how do we represent uncertain data, reduce uncertainty of data, reason about that data in a way so that we can make business decisions (yes, no). In 2011 we demonstrated in a very public way a system that dealt with uncertainty and made business decisions – Watson playing Jeopardy. The system did a good job at understanding confidence in answers based on a variety of factors, in order to know whether it had the answer right or wrong. Of course sometimes Watson got it wrong. So the kinds of business decisions that we will make based on uncertain data need to be appropriate. Can I route firetrucks if I do not know where they are (Data )what the road status is? How can I plan my plant capacity if my equipment is not predictably functional (Data,Model)? Do I know enough about a potential customer to be able to offer an appropriate sales incentive? [Data]. How about if I have 500,000 such customers? [Scale]
  • Photo: http://blog.ted.com/2012/02/29/four-commandments-for-cities-of-the-future-eduardo-paes-at-ted2012/
  • Source: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/labor_markets/future_of_work_in_advanced_economies
  • Source: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/labor_markets/future_of_work_in_advanced_economies
  • http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-college Posted below are 21 statistics about college tuition, student loan debt and the quality of college education in the United States.... #1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent. #2 In 2010, the average college graduate had accumulated approximately $25,000 in student loan debt by graduation day. #3 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loans. #4 Americans have accumulated well over $900 billion in student loan debt. That figure is higher than the total amount of credit card debt in the United States. #5 The typical U.S. college student spends less than 30 hours a week on academics. #6 According to very extensive research detailed in a new book entitled "Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses", 45 percent of U.S. college students exhibit "no significant gains in learning" after two years in college. #7 Today, college students spend approximately 50% less time studying than U.S. college students did just a few decades ago. #8 35% of U.S. college students spend 5 hours or less studying per week. #9 50% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to write more than 20 pages. #10 32% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to read more than 40 pages in a week. #11 U.S. college students spend 24% of their time sleeping, 51% of their time socializing and 7% of their time studying. #12 Federal statistics reveal that only 36 percent of the full-time students who began college in 2001 received a bachelor's degree within four years. #13 Nearly half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners. #14 According to the Economic Policy Institute, the unemployment rate for college graduates younger than 25 years old was 9.3 percent in 2010. #15 One-third of all college graduates end up taking jobs that don't even require college degrees. #16 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees. #17 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees. #18 In the United States today, approximately 365,000 cashiers have college degrees. #19 In the United States today, 24.5 percent of all retail salespersons have a college degree. #20 Once they get out into the "real world", 70% of college graduates wish that they had spent more time preparing for the "real world" while they were still in school. #21 Approximately 14 percent of all students that graduate with student loan debt end up defaulting within 3 years of making their first student loan payment. http://www.citytowninfo.com/career-and-education-news/articles/georgetown-university-study-shows-a-bachelors-degree-in-stem-pays-off-11102002 About 65 percent of individuals with bachelor's degrees in STEM subjects commanded greater salaries than those with master's degrees in non-STEM fields, according to a Georgetown press release. Likewise, 47 percent of college graduates with bachelor's degrees in STEM fields earn higher wages than those with doctoral degrees in non-STEM subjects.
  • Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems… Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “ off the chart ” – China projected to be “ off the chart ” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation ’ s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “ off the chart ” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
  • From IBM Christopher Bishop Globally interconnected Data from embedded devices Driving new and evolving business models
  • 04/11/13 08:21 From IBM Christopher Bishop Newer technologies have been taking hold at two and three times previous rates Years to reach 50% in marketplace adoption – Radio – 38 TV – 13 Internet – 4 iPod 3 Facebook - 2 200 million users of My Space as of Sept 2006 –If it were a country it would be the 11 th largest in the world – between Japan and Mexico Number of text messages sent and received every day exceeds the number of people on the planet 40 exabytes (4.0 X 10 19 th power) of new information will be generated this year-more than in the previous 5000 years it ’s a good time to be having this discussion about the changing nature of innovation. Because as this chart illustrates, there ’s simply no doubt that the pace of innovation, and the time between important new innovations, is changing. Today, new technologies are taking hold at double or triple the previous rate. Compare the penetration of cell phones in our society with the telephone. The invention of the telephone took nearly 40 years to reach the same societal penetration as cellular technology has in five years. All of which comes with implications for about ability to absorb, adapt and respond to the policy and ethical implications that always accompany technical advances.
  • 04/11/13 08:21 From IBM Christopher Bishop
  • From IBM Christopher Bishop
  • Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/05/09/the-top-majors-for-the-class-of-2022/2/ Wikipedia image
  • First, thanks for coming to the talk today, and if you find yourself in the US and California, please come visit me at the IBM Almaden Research Center in San Jose, the Capitol of Silicon Valley. And bring your hiking shoes, because I like to take my meetings when possible as hikes, in the 800 acre county park that surrounds the Almaden Center. The snow is actually a rare event, most days are sunny and warm.
  • Photo: http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/IBM-pushes-Smarter-Planet-but-how-edgy-is-firm-3415000.php
  • The Up-Skill Cycle People flow through the system of entities… As they flow they are upskilled…. Entities: Mature IBM Business Unit: From mature-business unit Acquired-IBM Business Unit: From IBM “ acquired company ” business unit University: From university role Venture: From venture that spun off from a university Other: None of the above One possible path A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “ finance ” The IBMer ’ s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut The IBMer moves to a new IBM acquisition to help the new acquisition adopt/learn IBM finance procedures After that the IBMer moves to a university as an IBMer on Campus The IBMer might work in a department/discipline, in the university incubator, or a university start-up, or even be a student at the university Eventually the IBMer signs up to be pat of a new venture that is spinning off from the university The new venture is aligned with IBM via HW, SW, or other IBM offerings/strategy IBM helps scale up the new venture global IBM might decide to acquire the new venture The IBM in the acquired new venture helps the new venture become a high growth business unit of IBM After the new IBM business unit asymptotes on revenue and profit improves, it has become a mature business unit Now the IBMer is back in a mature business unit, and the cycle repeats… A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “ finance ” The IBMer ’ s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut Transitions: Self-loop IBMer stays in mature business unit IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a newly acquired IBM acquisition IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a university role IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a new venture that spun off from a university IBMer transitions from mature business unit to an entity not mentioned above (some where else)
  • Ready for Life-Long-Learning Ready for Teamwork Ready to Help Build a Smarter Planet T-shaped people are ready for Teamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one culture, one discipline and one systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other cultures, disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
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    1. 1. IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward) Reframing Big Data & Service Science Working together to build a Smarter PlanetDr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.comInnovation Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)International Conference on Service Science (ICSS2013)Shenzen, ChinaApril 11, 2013 © 2013 IBM Corporation
    2. 2. Thanks2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    3. 3. Growth3 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    4. 4. Innovation Nation Year Innovation England 1800- Industrial Revolution Germany 1850- Chemicals Revolution USA 1900- Electrical & Information Revolution Japan 1970- Quality Innovation: Product Revolution Finland 1990- Mobile Communication Revolution India 2000- Cost Innovation: Services Revolution China 2000- Cost Innovation: Product Revolution South Korea 2010- Smart Phones ? Big Data & Service Systems4 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    5. 5. Big Questions: Scale “Laws” Service Systems: Stakeholders & Resources 1. People 2. Technology 3. Shared Information 4. Organizations Computational System connected by win-win value propositions Smarter Switches: Volume Smarter Systems: Value Requires investment roadmap Requires investment roadmap5 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    6. 6. The basics  How many switches?  How fast?  How many models?  How accurate?  What value?  What cost?6 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    7. 7. Managing Uncertain Data at ScaleThe fifth dimension of Big Data: Value! Volume Velocity Variety Veracity* Data in Many Data at Rest Data in Motion Data in Doubt Forms Terabytes to Streaming data, Structured, Uncertainty due to exabytes of existing milliseconds to unstructured, text, data inconsistency data to process seconds to respond multimedia & incompleteness, ambiguities, latency, deception, model approximations* Truthfulness, accuracy or precision, correctnessGlobal Technology Outlook 2012 - Do Not Distribute © 2011 IBM Corporation 7
    8. 8. Managing Uncertain Data at Scale By 2015, 80% of all available data will be uncertain By 2015 the number of networked devices will be double the entire global population. All 9000 sensor data has uncertainty. 8000 100Global Data Volume in Exabytes 90 The total number of social media 7000 accounts exceeds the entire global Aggregate Uncertainty % 80 population. This data is highly uncertain 6000 in both its expression and content. 70 s) 5000 of r s in g rn nso 60 Th Data quality solutions exist for e 4000 S 50 et enterprise data like customer, te (In 3000 40 product, and address data, but this is only a fraction of the ia ) M ed d text 2000 30 total enterprise data. i a l an S ,oc audio 20 eo P 1000 (vid VoI 10 0 Enterprise Data Multiple sources: IDC,Cisco 2005 2010 2015Global Technology Outlook 2012 - Do Not Distribute © 2011 IBM Corporation 8
    9. 9. Simulations  Particles in Universe – 10**80 protons  Neurons in Human Brain 15 – 10**11 neurons 12 – 10**15 synapses Heart Simulation Log 9 Universe Simulation Entities Brain Simulation 6 existing projects Earth Simulator and projection 2000 2010 2020 20309 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    10. 10. Cognitive Computing  Recent Simulation of the Brain – Using novel techniques we have simulated a rat scale brain  Develop an artificial nano-synapse  Develop an artificial cortex chip for a mouse and later for a cat  Demonstrate by running a virtual mouse and cat through a virtual maze in a 3D virtual world Monkey Brain Wiring Diagram  400 areas  7,000 connections© 2012 IBM Corporation 10
    11. 11. 1014 on November 14, 2012 Inspired by the function, power, and volume of the organic brain, IBM is developing TrueNorth, a novel modular, scalable, non-von Neumann, ultra-low power, cognitive computing architecture. TrueNorth consists of a scalable network of neurosynaptic cores, with each core containing neurons, dendrites, synapses, and axons. To set sail for TrueNorth, IBM developed Compass, a multi-threaded, massively parallel functional simulator and a parallel compiler that maps a network of long-distance pathways in the macaque monkey brain to TrueNorth. IBM and LBNL demonstrated near-perfect weak scaling on a 16 rack IBM Blue Gene/Q (262,144 processor cores, 256 TB memory), achieving an unprecedented scale of 256 million neurosynaptic cores containing 65 billion neurons and 16 trillion synapses running only 388× slower than real time with an average spiking rate of 8.1 Hz. By using emerging PGAS communication primitives, IBM also demonstrated 2× better real- time performance over MPI primitives on a 4 rack Blue Gene/P (16384 processor cores, 16 TB memory). Here is PDF of final paper. NEW NEWS: Since submitting the camera ready copy, using 96 Blue Gene/Q racks of the Lawrence Livermore National Lab Sequoia supercomputer (1,572,864 processor cores, 1.5 PB memory, 98,304 MPI processes, and 6,291,456 threads), IBM and LBNL achieved an unprecedented scale of 2.084 billion neurosynaptic cores containing 53x10 10 neurons and 1.37x1014© 2012 IBM Corporation synapses running only 1542× slower than real time. Here is PDF of IBM Research Report, RJ 10502.
    12. 12. Today’s Talk  IBM 101 IBM Smarter Planet  Big Data!  Service Science  Future = Smarter Planet  Universities = Smarter Cities Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno IBM SSME Centennial Icon of Progress12 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    13. 13. More than 40% of New Era in IBM’s LeadershipIBM’s workforceconducts businessaway from an office IBM has ~425,000 24% of IBM’s revenue 2012 Financials employees worldwide in Growth Market  Revenue - $ 104.5B countries; growing at  Net Income - $ 17.6BIBM operates in 170 7% ( @cc) in 2012  EPS - $ 15.25 (10 yrs ofcountries around the globe EPS d/digit growth)Acquisitions contribute  Net Cash - $18.2Bsignificantly to IBM’s growth ;~120 acquisitions in last decade IBM’s Initiatives for Growth Number 1 in patent generation for 20100 Years of Business & consecutive years ;Innovation in 2011 6,478 US patents awarded in 2012 The Smartest Machine On Earth 10 time winner of the President’s 5 Nobel Laureates National Medal of Technology & Innovation – latest for LASIK laser refractive surgical techniques 13 IBM University Programs (IBM UP) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    14. 14. What’s UP with IBM? University Programs 14
    15. 15. Most people say, “IBM makes computers” 15
    16. 16. Those in-the-know say, “IBM is helping to build a Smarter Planet…” 16
    17. 17. A Smarter Planet is built from smarter service systems… INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT We now have the ability People, systems and We can respond to changes to measure, sense and objects can communicate quickly and accurately, see the exact condition and interact with each and get better results of practically everything. other in entirely new by predicting and optimizing ways. PRODUCTS IT NETWORKS for future events. COMMUNICATIONSWORKFORCE SUPPLY CHAIN TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS 17
    18. 18. Neonatal ICU: Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent18 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    19. 19. City challenge: buildings and transportationRyan Chin:Smart Cities 19
    20. 20. Streetline: Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent 20
    21. 21. Example: Streetline21 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    22. 22. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities 22
    23. 23. 23
    24. 24. 24
    25. 25. Digital Immigrant vs Digital Native Born: 1988 Born: 2012 Graduated College: 2011 Enters College: 203025 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    26. 26. 2030 Transportation: Self-driving cars Steve Mahan: Test “Driver”26 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    27. 27. 2030 Water27 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    28. 28. 2030 Manufacturing Baxter: Building the Future Ryan Chin: Urban Mobility Maker-Bot: Replicator 228 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    29. 29. 2030 Energy29 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    30. 30. 2030 ICT30 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    31. 31. Example: Leading Through Connections with… Universities Collaborate with IBM Research to Design Watson for the Grand Challenge of Jeopardy ! Assisted in the development of the Open Pioneered an online natural language Advancement of Question-Answering question answering system called START, Initiative (OAQA) architecture and which provided the ability to answer questions methodology with high precision using information from semi-structured and structured information repositories Provided technological advancementenabling a computing system to remember the Worked to extend thefull interaction, rather than treating every Worked on a visualization component to capabilities of Watson, with aquestion like the first one - simulating a real visually explain to external audiences the focus on extensive commondialogue massively parallel analytics skills it takes for sense knowledge the Watson computing system to break down a question and formulate a rapid and accurate response to rival a human brainExplored advanced machine learningtechniques along with rich textrepresentations based on syntactic and Focused on large-scalesemantic structures for the Watson’s Worked on information information extraction,optimization retrieval and text search parsing, and knowledge technologies inference technologieshttp://w3.ibm.com/news/w3news/top_stories/2011/02/chq_watson_wrapup.html 31 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    32. 32. 2030 Buildings: Recycled to be stronger, safer, cleaner China Broad Group: 30 Stories in 15 Days32 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    33. 33. 2030 Retail & Hospitality33 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    34. 34. 2030 Finance & Business34 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    35. 35. 2030 Health35 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    36. 36. 2030 Education: Watch one, do one, teach one…36 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    37. 37. 2030 GovernmentFour measures  Innovativeness  Equity – Improve weakest link  Sustainability  Resiliency37 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    38. 38. Competitive Parity – Achieved.  The NFL has spent the last two decades touting its parity—the idea that any team can win on any given Sunday (or Monday or Thursday). But this year, parity has truly run wild.  … heres the wackiest thing: Through six weeks, 11 of the NFLs 32 teams are 3-3. The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation…38 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    39. 39. 2030 and Beyond…. Government, Health, Education, Finance, etc.39 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    40. 40. Four Missions  Knowledge Transfer (Teaching)  Knowledge Creation (Research)  Knowledge Application (Entrepreneurship)  Knowledge Integration (Bridge Silos)40 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    41. 41. A city is essentially a system of service systems—transportation, healthcare, public safety and education. To enable a Smarter City, IBM is working to improve the quality & efficiency of service systems and how they operate and function.41 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
    42. 42. IBM University Programs:What We Do: The “6 R’s” (not to be confused with 3 R’s) 1. Research Research awards focus on grand challenge problems and big bets https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/research 2. Readiness Access to IBM tools, methods, and course materials to develop skills https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/academicinitiative 3. Recruiting Internships and full-time positions working to build a smarter planet http://www.ibm.com/jobs 4. Revenue Improve performance, the university as a complex enterprise (city within city) http://www.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/bcs_education.html 5. Responsibility Community service provides access to IBMers expertise/resources http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ibmgives/ 6. Regions Regional innovation ecosystems – incubators, entrepreneurship, jobs http://www.ibm.com/ibm/governmentalprograms/innovissue.html42 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    43. 43. Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development “When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”43 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    44. 44. What are the benefits of top-ranked universities?% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities 9 Japan 8 7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534 R² = 0,719 China 6 Germany 5 France 4 United Kingdom Italy % G D o b P a g l 3 Russia Brazil Spain Canada 2 India Mexico South Korea Australia Turkey Netherlands 1 Sweden 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % top 500 universities Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankings http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html44 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    45. 45. What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills? …But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M45 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    46. 46. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worlds http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056novations Nationniversities/ “The future is already State/Province here (at universities),egions City/Region culus (Cambridge/UK) For-profits it is just not evenlyysics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEEmputer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.” rosoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/Sustainerhoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital Cultural & Universityogle (Stanford/CA) Medical Conference College ebook (Harvard/CA) Research Hotels K-12 “The best way to Non-profits Worker (professional ) Family (household) predict the future is to (inspire the next generation of students to) build it better.” U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City 46 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    47. 47. Service Innovators  ISSIP = International Society of Service Innovation Professionals  T-shaped Professionals – Depth – Breadth  Register at: – ISSIP.org47 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    48. 48. T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth Many cultures Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) BREADTH Deep in one discipline Deep in one system Deep in one culture DEPTH (analytic thinking & problem solving)4848 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    49. 49. Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities Systems that govern transportation & ICT & retail & healthcare food & education city state nation disciplines supply chain water & energy products & electricity cloud building & hospitality banking & family &work secure scale laws waste construction & finance behavioral sciencesCustomerstakeholders e.g., marketingProvider management sciences e.g., operations Observe Stakeholders (As-Is) political sciencesAuthority e.g., public policy learning sciencesCompetitors e.g., game theory and strategy cognitive sciencesPeople e.g., psychologyresources system sciencesTechnology e.g., industrial eng. information sciences Observe Resource Access (As-Is)Information e.g., computer sci organization sciencesOrganizations e.g., knowledge mgmtHistory social scienceschange e.g., econ & law(Data Analytics) decision sciences Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)Future e.g., stats & design(Roadmap) run professionsRun e.g., knowledge workerTransformvalue(Copy) transform professions e.g., consultant Realize Value (To-Be)Innovate innovate professions(Invent) e.g., entrepreneur 49 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    50. 50. A Framework for Global Civil Society  Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterdays 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society. – John Sexton, President NYU50 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    51. 51. IBM Almaden Research Center, Silicon Valley/San Jose, CA51 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    52. 52. In Conclusion: Two Books To Help Us All Prepare For Change52 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    53. 53. Thank-You! Questions? “Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM “If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org “Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU “Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli “The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson “The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay “Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer “Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells “The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov “Think global, act local.” – GeddesDr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion &Director, IBM University Programs worldwide accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)spohrer@us.ibm.com 53 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    54. 54. What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations * = US Labor % in 2009. A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 1. Transportation & supply chain 2/7/4 0/19/0 2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment 2/1/1 3. Food & products manufacturing 7/6/1 4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech 1/1/0 5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)5/17/27 B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*) 6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 1/0/2 7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)24/24/1 8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*) 7/10/3 9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*) 2/20/24 5/2/2 10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*) C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax) 3/3/1 12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax) 0/0/0 13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax) 1/2/2 Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities “61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”54 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    55. 55. University: Four Missions Nation Knowledge State/Province – 1. Transfer (Teaching) City/Metro For-profits U-BEE – 2. Creation (Research) Job Creator/Sustainer – 3. Application (Benefits) Cultural & University Hospital Medical Conference College Research • Commerce/Entrepreneurship Hotels K-12 • Governance/Policymaking Worker Family – 4. Re-Integration (Challenge) Non-profits (professional ) (household) • Innovativeness, Equity • Sustainability, Resilience Nested, Networked Holistic Service Systems – Flows Third Mission (Apply to Create Value) – Development is about U-BEEs = – Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems 55 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    56. 56. Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development “When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”56 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    57. 57. Economic Shift in National Economies World’s Large Labor Forces US shift to service jobs A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Service 2010 2010 Nation Labor % WW A % G % S % 40yr Service Growth (A) Agriculture: Value from China 25.7 49 22 29 142% harvesting nature India 14.4 60 17 23 35% (G) Goods: U.S. 5.1 1 23 76 23% Value from making products Indonesia 3.5 45 16 39 34% (S) Service: Brazil 3.0 20 14 Daryl Pereira/Sunnyvale/IBM@IBMUS, 66 61% Value from IT augmented workers in smarter systems Russia 2.4 10 21 69 64% that create benefits for customers and sustainably improve quality of life. Japan 2.2 5 28 67 45% Nigeria 1.6 70 10 20 19% Bangladesh 2.1 63 11 26 37% Germany 1.4 3 33 64 42% NationMaster.com, International Labor Organization Note: Pakistan, Vietnam, and Mexico now larger LF than Germany57 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    58. 58. Growth of Service Revenue at IBM 2010 Pretax Income Mix Revenue Growth by Segment SYSTEMS (AND FINANCING)SOFTWARE 17% Services 44% Software 39% Systems SERVICES IBM Annual ReportsWhat do IBM Service Professionals Do? Run IT & enterprise systems for customers,help Transform customer processes to best practices, and Innovate with customers.58 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    59. 59. California Human Development Report 2011:Measuring quality-of-life…. http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf59 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    60. 60. Measuring Impact SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment – Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR • Key was tools to model customers & IBM better • Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures • Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent) • Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems) – External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities – External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications – External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations – External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions – External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation) Service Research, a Portfolio Approach – 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s) – 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers) – 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion) – 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up) – 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums) – 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)60 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    61. 61. Who I am (http://www.service-science.info/archives/2233)  Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009 – Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university) – 6 R’s: Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility, Regions – Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”) – Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs  Founding Director of IBMs first Service Research group from 2003-2009 – Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA – 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards – Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications – I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines • I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D) – Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline) – Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool) • I advocate for ISSIP (“one of the founding fathers”) • Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)  Other background (late 90’s and before) – Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley – Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s) – Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s) – B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)61 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    62. 62. What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities… Kurzweilai.net62 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    63. 63. IBM’s Strategic Beliefs A new client An evolving IBMer A new era of computing  In the front office  Understands needs  More consumable  In new roles of clients  Insight-driven  In new industries  Expertise  Cognitive  Creates new value© 2012 IBM Corporation IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    64. 64. Reimagining how science and technology can have impact • Managing human • Reimagining the • Fighting infectious impact on rivers by energy grid by disease by spreading streaming information synchronizing supply data • Reducing traffic jams • Reducing CO2 while • Improving by creating them boosting business communication by efficiency talking to the Web • Helping premature infants by sensing • Mapping beneath the • Creating drinking water complications before seafloor to help reduce by filtering oceans they happen the risk of dry holes© 2012 IBM Corporation
    65. 65. Innovation That Never Stops Watson 3D Systems DNA Transistor 12 Atom Storage Neonatal Care Spoken Web65Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson © IBM Corporation IBM - Deutsche Bank Innovation Workshop, Hawthorne, May 2012
    66. 66. Leading IBM: Eras of computing Cognitive Systems Era Programmable Systems Era Computer Intelligence Tabulating Systems Era On August 22, 1943, 105 men, women and children, among them 43 IBM employees, alighted from a special train that carried them across the continent to establish new homes and the new IBM Card Manufacturing Plant Number 5 at 16th Time and St. John Streets, San Jose, CA.© 2012 IBM Corporation
    67. 67. Managing Uncertain Data at ScaleUncertainty arises from many sources Process Uncertainty Data Uncertainty Model Uncertainty Processes contain Data input is uncertain All modeling is approximate “randomness” Intended Actual Spelling Text Entry Spelling ? ? ? Fitting a curve to data Uncertain travel times GPS Uncertainty ? ? Testimony ? {Paris Airport} Ambiguity {John Smith, Dallas} Semiconductor yield {John Smith, Kansas} Forecasting a hurricane Contaminated? (www.noaa.gov) Rumors Conflicting DataGlobal Technology Outlook 2012 - Do Not Distribute © 2011 IBM Corporation 67
    68. 68. Managing Uncertain Data at Scale WSJ Monday March 11, 2013 Opportunities Areas 2010 FB 100PB Medical data Marketing 2000 Google 25PB Social media Hotels 1990 Walmart 180TB Surveillance 9.2TB 1980 Citicorp 450GB 50M customers 1970 FedExp 80GB IT Spend 1960 AA 807MB 2011 ~30B Operations 1950 Hancock 600MB 2016 ~60B Shipping 16.1PB Science data is bigger Challenges Deliveries Also, government open data Talent HR Who owns data? Data gathering 4-5PB Hub-of-All-Things (HAT) Tools 37M Resumes Time to work Platform Games 3PB 298M playersGlobal Technology Outlook 2012 - Do Not Distribute © 2011 IBM Corporation 68
    69. 69. Essential #1: People (T-Shaped Innovators)Requirement: Deep, Expert-Thinking, with Broad Complex-Communications Skills Broad across many Many team-oriented projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards) Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) (understanding & communications) (analytic thinking & problem solving) (analytic thinking & problem solving) (analytic thinking & problem solving) (analytic thinking & problem solving) Deep in one discipline Deep in one discipline Deep in one system Deep in one system Deep in at least one69Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson © IBM Corporation IBM - Deutsche Bank Innovation Workshop, Hawthorne, May 2012
    70. 70. IBM Research – Africa Nairobi, Kenya Our 12th research lab IBM’s first lab on the continent Initial focus – Next Generation Public Sector • e-government – Smarter Cities • water & transportation – Human Capacity Development • technology & business skills© 2012 IBM Corporation
    71. 71. IBM Research: The World is Our Lab Dublin China Zurich Almaden Watson Haifa India Tokyo Austin Brazil Melbourne IBM Research labs Labs added since 2010 Other IBM Research presence© 2012 IBM Corporation
    72. 72. IBMs Worldwide Innovation Infrastructure~3,000 Researchers Around the World Almaden (1955) Almaden (1955) Watson (1961) Watson (1961) Tokyo (1982) Tokyo (1982) San Jose, CA Yorktown Heights, NY Zurich (1956) Zurich (1956) Yamato, Japan San Jose, CA Yorktown Heights, NY Yamato, Japan Rueschlikon, Switzerland Rueschlikon, Switzerland First New First New Research Lab Research Lab in 12 Years in 12 Years Austin (2010) Brazil (1995) Austin (2010) Brazil (1995) China (1995) China (1995)Sao PauloAustin, TX Janeiro Austin, TX Janeiro &Rio de Sao Paulo &Rio de Beijing, China Beijing, China Brazil Brazil Haifa (1972) Haifa (1972) India (1998) India (1998) Australia Australia Sao Paulo &Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo &Rio de Janeiro Haifa, Israel Delhi, India Delhi, India Melbourne, Victoria Melbourne, Victoria Haifa, Israel 7272Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson © IBM Corporation IBM - Deutsche Bank Innovation Workshop, Hawthorne, May 2012
    73. 73. The World is Now Our Laboratory China Zurich Pangoo Tokyo Almaden Watson Haifa Austin India Brazil IBM Research Lab Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations73Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson © IBM Corporation IBM - Deutsche Bank Innovation Workshop, Hawthorne, May 2012
    74. 74. Four commandments for cities of the future: Eduardo Paes at TED2012 74
    75. 75. SC IOC as a Platform for Innovation 75
    76. 76.  Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.  SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press inExclusive Networking and Wall Street Journal, Forbes and BloombergMentoring event in Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp 76 North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, eapse@us.ibm.com University Programs lead: Dawn Tew, dawn2@us.ibm.com 76
    77. 77. Future of Work 77
    78. 78. Education and Employment 78
    79. 79. What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills? …But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M 79
    80. 80. What are the benefits of top-ranked universities? % WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities 9 Japan 8 7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534 R² = 0,719 China 6 Germany 5 France 4 United Kingdom Italy%GDobPagl 3 Russia Brazil Spain Canada 2 India Mexico South Korea Australia Turkey Netherlands 1 Sweden 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % top 500 universitiesStrong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankings http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html 80
    81. 81. Many top in-demand jobs in 2011 did not exist in 2005!•iPhone/iPad app developer•wireless marketing director•microfinance infrastructure designer•3D content developer for movies, TV•social network manager•deploying technology into the cloud•organic solar cell development•digital image management 81 81
    82. 82. Technological Acceleration 100 Television Electricity Telephone Radio% Penetration Automobile VCR 50 PC Cellular 25 t r ne e Int 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Years YEARS 82
    83. 83. Five historical cycles … 83
    84. 84. ~100 years of US job transformationsSource: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis 84
    85. 85. U.S Department of Labor estimates that today’s learner will have 10-14 jobs… by the age of 38!85 85
    86. 86.  Estimates are 85% of the jobs today’s learners will be doing haven’t been invented yet 86 theyll be using technologies that dont exist 86 to solve problems we dont yet know are problems
    87. 87. The Top Majors For The Class Of 2022• Math• Robotics• Agricultural Engineering• Hospitality Management• Health and Biotechnology• Pre-Law, With a Focus on Elder Law• Quantum Engineering• 3-D Printing Design• Liberal Arts• Aerospace Engineering 87
    88. 88. IBM Almaden Research Center, Silicon Valley/San Jose, CA 88
    89. 89. Smarter City Intelligent Operations Center (SC IOC)89 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    90. 90. Up-Skill = New Venture = Graduates with Smarter Planet skills = High-GrowthCycle = Acquisition = IBMer moving from Acquisition/ New IBM BU mature BU to acquisition (Growing) = IBMer moving into IBMer on Campus role (help create graduates = High-Productivity/University-Region1 with Smarter-Planet skills, Mature IBM BU help create Smarter Planet oriented new ventures; (Shrinking) Refresh skillsUniversity-Region2 IBM90 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation
    91. 91. Many cultures Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) Deep in one discipline Deep in one system Deep in one culture9191 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2013 IBM Corporation

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