Future of innovation 20120628 v2


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NBIC Universal Machines Smarter Cities Smarter Universities

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  • Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2012) The Future of Innovation: Convergence & City-University Nodes Grassroots Innovation Program (hosted at EMC2), Santa Clara, CA USA, Thursday June 28, 2012 Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com This presentation is available on-line at: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/future-of-innovation-20120628-v2 / Source Picture: E-JUST Permanent Campus Architectural Design Competition • 1stPlace -ArataIsozakiand Associates Co. LTD – Theme: Invisible complexities Provided by: Amr Eltawil Associate Professor Acting chairperson Industrial Engineering and Systems Management Egypt Japan University of Science and Technology P.O. box 179, New Borg El Arab City, Alexandria 21934, Egypt www.ejust.edu.eg Proud to be Egyptian!
  • SJO = San Jose International Airport QoS/J/O = Quality of Service, Jobs, Opportunity
  • NBIC(S) 2.0 Pronounced as three syllables “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh” Social should always be there…. Info is not social, and Cogno is not social – collective human population is social… If the Social (“Augmented Collective”) Intelligence can think it. If the Cognitive Scientists can think it the Nano people can build it the Bio people can implement it, and the IT people can monitor and control it NBIC-1 http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf If the Cognitive Scientists can think it the Nano people can build it the Bio people can implement it, and the IT people can monitor and control it
  • Need genes sequenced per second Need emails/IM per second Book Picture: http://wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/ Transistors: http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/speeches/barrett20010508.htm Craig Barrett: “This plot you're seeing now happens to be the number of transistors that are produced each year by our industry worldwide. And if you can't read the scale, I think it's something like about 200 quintillion transistors per year are produced. If you want to put that if perspective, that is roughly equal to every printed character, letter, A, B, C, or number that has been recorded in the history of mankind. So each year we make the same number of transistors as every character that man has written down in man's lifetime. And you can see that that number continues to grow at a logarithmic rate in terms of the increase and the average price per transistor continues to decrease the logarithmic rate. That's why you get the anti-inflationary nature of our industry in terms of bringing more capability for the same cost year upon year upon year.” http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=1285 Transistors per person by 2008 In 1998, the worldwide industry produced about 2.1 billion transistors every second.
  • Not just IBM, not just GE, but whole US economy, and soon all the economies of the world…. Has to do with productivity increases in agriculture and goods (Amos Hawley, Human Ecology). But also capabilities increases in people. We observe services dominating the US and all the rest of the world economies – a major labor force migration is happening in part driven by Information Communication Technologies – OECD reports describe the connection. Service science is ultimately about understanding how to boost human-technology productivity via four types of innovation. Sources: http://www.nationmaster.com IBM Research
  • The goal is to get to what Engelbart has called facilitated coevolution – involving capabilities of the people, human systems (including organizations) and tool systems (including technology). From a services perspective – part of the coevolution is deciding what we do for ourselves (and hence what capabilities we need) and what we allow the rest of the system to do for us (and hence what capabilities need to come from the system). This constant rejiggering of capabilities between and amongst the three systems people, organizations, and technology is what generates the changes we sometimes call progress. Again service science will help boost productivity by accelerating our ability to have work systems absorb innovation – work systems seem to evolve through four stages – jobs are created and destroyed along the way, and that is one of the factors that must be factored in when designing innovative new ways to work. Source: IBM Research What could be called “theory Z” of work evolution is based on Doug Engelbart’s model of human system and tool system coevolution. Specialized new forms of work start out as collaborations of people, who over time developed specialized skills as well as incentives to tightly collaborate (1) Next they develop tools that allow more productivity as well as less skilled people to contribute to the work (2) Next, assuming sufficient demand for the product of the work, specialized organization form to do the work, and other people and organizations that want the work product can get it done by outsourcing it into a competitive economy (3) Finally, at some point one of the competitors figures out a way to automate the work, making the work a form of self service interacting with an automated service provider (4). Human intelligence is augmented by tools and organizations that “make us smarter” – from a services perspective, one can redistribute (“share”) work into the tool system or the human system, to a more (all) or lesser (some) degree. Collaborate: Skilled people Augment: Skilled people with tool Delegate: Specialized people in an organization that gets the business outsourced to them Automate: Client or user interacts with tool When the tool system does it all, that is automation – example ATM machine (use technology to advantage) When the human system does it all, that is outsourcing – example low cost call center businesses in India (use economy to advantage) When the tool system does some of the work, that is having capabilities augmented – example a calculator When the human system does some of the work, that is collaboration – example bonuses for cost saving ideas, incents people to share ideas. Many KM failures due to lack of incentive for sharing and knowledge reuse. When changing work, one needs to ask four key questions: Should we – is there demand and enough potential value to be created and captured (“make sure the goal has real value”) Can we – is it technologically feasible, and can processes be designed to accomplish the work (“make sure it can be done – a feasible plan”) May we – can any stakeholders block this, what incentive design could overcome this (“design a win-win game for all stakeholders – all player happy”) Will we – when staked up against other organizational priorities does the value justify the cost at this time (“is it the most important thing to accomplish now, can it wait”)
  • New collaboration technologies, organizations, and individual capabilities are key to the emergence of collective IQ. http://www.whozoo.org/mac/Music/foxp2.htm Book Author: Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393317544/qid=1076830171/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Author Picture: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~lhc/graphics/deacon.jpg Open Book Picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1578518377/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Open Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1578518377/qid=1077747330/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Open Author Picture: http://hsa.net/cfe/images/profs/chesbrough.jpg Smart Mob Picture: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0738208612.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Smart Mob Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0738208612/qid=1077746430/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-2997550-9638329 Smart Mob Author Picture: http://www.cooltown.com/mpulse/graphics/0203-rheingold.jpg Book Info for Cathedral: Eric Raymond’s Home Page: http://www.catb.org/~esr/ http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm Speech: The molecular components “ For the first time, a gene has been identified as responsible for a specific human language disorder. The gene encodes an unusual member of a family of proteins involved in embryogenesis, the Winged Helix/Forkhead transcription factors. Disruption of the FOXP2 gene appears to affect the brain at an early stage in development, leading to abnormality in neural structures important for speech and language.” http://www.nature.com/nature/links/011004/011004-4.html Amazon Editorial Reviews: Editorial Reviews Amazon.com Terrence Deacon's The Symbolic Species begins with a question posed by a 7-year-old child: Why can't animals talk? Or, as Deacon puts it, if animals have simpler brains, why can't they develop a simpler form of language to go with them? Thus begins the basic line of inquiry for this breathtakingly ambitious work, which attempts to describe the origins of human language and consciousness. What separates humans from animals, Deacon writes, is our capacity for symbolic representation. Animals can easily learn to link a sound with an object or an effect with a cause. But symbolic thinking assumes the ability to associate things that might only rarely have a physical correlation; think of the word "unicorn," for instance, or the idea of the future. Language is only the outward expression of this symbolic ability, which lays the foundation for everything from human laughter to our compulsive search for meaning. The final section of The Symbolic Species posits that human brains and human language have coevolved over millions of years, leading Deacon to the remarkable conclusion that many modern human traits were actually caused by ideas . Deacon's background in biological anthropology and neuroscience makes him a reliable companion through this complicated multidisciplinary turf. Rigorously researched and argued in dense but lively prose, The Symbolic Species is that rare animal, a book of serious science that's accessible to layman and scientist alike. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. From Library Journal A neurologist and anthropologist with Harvard Medical School, Deacon considers why language is confined to humans and why no simple languages exist. He proposes that symbolic reference is both the defining feature of language and the principle cause for the expansion of the human profrontal cortex. This "evolutionary anomaly" has, in turn, given rise to a brain that is biased to use an associative learning process critical for language success. Deacon also suggests that human-reproduction... read more --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Book Description This revolutionary book provides fresh answers to long-standing questions of human origins and consciousness. Drawing on his breakthrough research in comparative neuroscience, Terrence Deacon offers a wealth of insights into the significance of symbolic thinking: from the co-evolutionary exchange between language and brains over two million years of hominid evolution to the ethical repercussions that followed man's newfound access to other people's thoughts and emotions. Informing these insights is a new understanding of how Darwinian processes underlie the brain's development and function as well as its evolution. In contrast to much contemporary neuroscience that treats the brain as no more or less than a computer, Deacon provides a new clarity of vision into the mechanism of mind. It injects a renewed sense of adventure into the experience of being human.
  • One thing I’ll point out though that is slowing the emergence of collective IQ is that evolution of cellphone applications has not been as rapid as the evolution of internet applications – witness the lack of college kids with VC backing on cellphone applications compared with that of internet companies in the mid-90’s. I think that is about to change and I think the evolution of the iPod and RSS and the dark web and blogging may be part of it. Worldboard is my vision of the future of cellphones, and an acid test for whether college kids are empowered in the cellphone age or not. Books: Moschella’s Customer-Driven IT; (order Global Work by Johansen); Cohen’s Harnessing Complexity; Jefferson Independence, Stuart Kaufman At Home in the Universe; Remarkable Story of Risk, Creative Destruction, Future of Work Emergence Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0684868768/qid=1077748587/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_3/104-2997550-9638329 Emergence Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0684868768/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Emergence Author: http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/network/2002/02/22/johnson.html Connections Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559270667/qid=1077749850/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-2997550-9638329 Connections Book: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/1559270667.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Connections: Author: http://www.mun.ca/univrel/newsphotos/jburke.jpg Six: Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393041425/qid=1077749183/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Six Book: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0393041425.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Six Author: http://www.aip.org/aip/corporate/2000/duncan.jpg
  • Augment – what is most exciting to me is telerobotics – I recently heard about a remote controlled laundry folding robot – so you can outsource the service of laundry folding. Mars Rover Picture: http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/newsroom/pressreleases/20040116b.html Book Picture and Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/037572527X/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance Author Picture: http://www-lehre.informatik.uni-osnabrueck.de/~sbitzer/cyborgs/rodney_brooks.jpg Telesurgery Pictures and Text: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1552211.stm RatBot: http://www.wireheading.com/roborats/index.html Wednesday, 19 September, 2001, 14:01 GMT 15:01 UK Doctors claim world first in telesurgery The first major trans-Atlantic telesurgical operation has been carried out. Doctors in the United States removed a gall bladder from a patient in eastern France by remotely operating a surgical robot arm. The procedure could make it possible for a surgeon to perform an operation on a patient anywhere in the world. It lays the foundations for the globalisation of surgical procedures Professor Jacques Marescaux Doctors at the European Institute of Telesurgery in Strasbourg say the procedure was successful and there were no complications. The patient, a 68-year-old woman, was discharged two days after the operation. To operate on the patient in France, a surgeon working from New York controlled the arm of a surgical robot. Two medical teams were involved, linked by a video and a high-speed fibre-optic line. 'Safe' time lag A round distance of more than 14,000 kilometres (8,700 miles) separated the two medical teams. The time delay between the surgeon's movements and the return video image displayed on screen was less than 200 milliseconds. The estimated safe lag time is 330 ms. Professor Jacques Marescaux, who led the team, said the operation ushered in "the third revolution we've seen in the field of surgery in the past 10 years". "It lays the foundations for the globalisation of surgical procedures, making it possible to imagine that a surgeon could perform an operation on a patient anywhere in the world," he added. Step forward Telesurgery is of growing interest to the medical world. In June, patients at Rome's Policlinico Casilino University underwent minor telesurgery guided by experts at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, US. Fourteen patients were given a laparoscopy, where a small "telescope" was inserted into the body. Minor kidney surgery was then carried out on some of these patients. Details of the Strasbourg operation, which goes one step further, were revealed on Wednesday in the scientific journal Nature. http://www.mindjack.com/books/fleshmachines.html However, Brooks realizes that in such a system the human element is (still) not out of the loop, and that in order for it to work smoothly, and not disrupt the lives of those who rush to the airport and have work to do during the day, someone will have to remotely control the robot. The solution for this: developing countries where labor is cheap (and often quite qualified). Remote work as the killer application for robots in the short term. Brooks says, and I quote, The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available (146-147) There are at least two ways of interpreting this statement. Brooks may be a defender of the status quo, a pragmatist of sorts, and have no faith that the power relations, that keep the system running by forcing many entities to invisibility, can be changed. Brooks could also be an idealist, which is certainly not a fault, and believe that what he postulates above has a chance of becoming a reality. In any case, he is remarkably uninformed about the working conditions and lack of labour and safety regulations and working conditions which many workers in developing countries are exposed to. One can safely assume that he has not yet read Naomi Klein’s No Logo (2000), her exposé of the business practices of large corporations and the realities of outsourcing and sweatshops all over the world.
  • Delegate – what is exciting to me from a services evolution perspective (though it is not without pain in the US economy) is the growth of outsourcing – it is like massive parts of the human sociotechnical computer are all coming on line, and out services MIPS (millions of service interactions per second) are going way up as a result. Just heard about people outsourcing cartoons, and heart surgery. Picture India Call Center: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/60minutes/main590004.shtml Picture of Friedman: http://my.brandeis.edu/profiles/one-profile?profile_id=77 Text of Book: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0385499345/qid=1076826185/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Picture of Friedman Book: http://www.allbookstores.com/covers/2/2/5/big0374185522.jpg Picture of Amartya Sen: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/nobel/a-sen-nobel.jpg Text of Book: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385720270/qid=1076826924/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/103-3454405-6368663 Picture of Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0385720270/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link From Publishers Weekly When Sen, an Indian-born Cambridge economist, won the 1998 Nobel Prize for Economic Science, he was praised by the Nobel Committee for bringing an "ethical dimension" to a field recently dominated by technical specialists. Sen here argues that open dialogue, civil freedoms and political liberties are prerequisites for sustainable development. He tests his theory with examples ranging from the former Soviet bloc to Africa, but he puts special emphasis on China and India. How does one explain the recent gulf in economic progress between authoritarian yet fast-growing China and democratic, economically laggard India? For Sen, the answer is clear: India, with its massive neglect of public education, basic health care and literacy, was poorly prepared for a widely shared economic expansion; China, on the other hand, having made substantial advances in those areas, was able to capitalize on its market reforms. Yet Sen demolishes the notion that a specific set of "Asian values" exists that might provide a justification for authoritarian regimes. He observes that China's coercive system has contributed to massive famine and that Beijing's compulsory birth control policyAonly one child per familyAhas led to fatal neglect of female children. Though not always easy reading for the layperson, Sen's book is an admirable and persuasive effort to define development not in terms of GDP but in terms of "the real freedoms that people enjoy." (Sept.) Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. From Library Journal In his first book since winning the 1998 Nobel Prize for Economics, Sen (Trinity Coll., Cambridge) presents a decent summary of his thought. Advancing development as a method for expanding economicAand thus politicalAfreedom (he sees both as a means and an end) Sen recapitulates his studies of famine, poverty, life expectancy, mortality, and illiteracy in the Third World. A somewhat controversial choice for the Nobel Prize (since his focus on what is called "welfare economics," which makes human... read more --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Book Description By the winner of the 1988 Nobel Prize in Economics, an essential and paradigm-altering framework for understanding economic development--for both rich and poor--in the twenty-first century. Freedom, Sen argues, is both the end and most efficient means of sustaining economic life and the key to securing the general welfare of the world's entire population. Releasing the idea of individual freedom from association with any particular historical, intellectual, political, or religious tradition, Sen clearly demonstrates its current applicability and possibilities. In the new global economy, where, despite unprecedented increases in overall opulence, the contemporary world denies elementary freedoms to vast numbers--perhaps even the majority of people--he concludes, it is still possible to practically and optimistically restain a sense of social accountability. Development as Freedom is essential reading.
  • Automate - The ultimate automation of manufacturing is lurking. Already metal parts for aircraft are being replicated. The cost of stereolithography or three-D printing is dropping. Perhaps by the end of this century we’ll see the realization of a type of utility fog. Manifest ideas into physical form. Pictures: http://www.materialise.be/prototypingsolutions/stereo_ENG.html Pictures:http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110309.html Picture of Author: http://www.engin.cf.ac.uk/whoswho/profile.asp?RecordNo=163 Picture of Author: http://www.engin.cf.ac.uk/whoswho/profile.asp?RecordNo=59 Picture of Book: Picture: Rat Skull: http://www.sciencenews.org/20030426/fob6.asp Picture: Printing Organs: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993292 Picture: Printing Gadgets: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993238 http://home.att.net/~rpml/p02b/p02b_460.htm 460. Rapid evolution: New materials and process improvements are stretching the boundaries of prototyping techniques. Author John DeGaspari Source Mechanical Engineering-CIME, March 2002 v124 i3 p48(5). Abstract In the roughly 15 years since it first hit the market, stereolithography has been joined by a host of other prototyping techniques, each carving out a niche with varying degrees of success. While material advancements are most evident in plastics, research is also taking place in metals and ceramics. One process that has seen developments in this area is stereolithography. The resins used in stereolithography are photosensitive thermosets that crosslink during the curing process, and are fundamentally different from the thermoplastics used in injection molding that they are designed to emulate. "Usually, these materials are good at matching a couple of mechanical properties, such as elastic modulus and yield strength," said Chuck Hull, chief technology officer of 3D Systems in Valencia, Calif., a supplier of stereolithography machines, selective laser sintering systems, and three-dimensional printers. He said that the industry has had some success in making resins that mimic polypropylene, a widel y used thermoplastic. He also expects stereolithography resin suppliers to continue to make progress in creating materials that have selected thermoplastic properties, which will drive specific applications. Other developments in stereolithography resins are adding to the fit and function capabilities of prototype parts. DSM Somos, based in New Castle, Del., recently introduced a line of WaterClear resins for building transparent prototype parts. The use of stereolithography resins to create master patterns for tooling for a secondary process, such as plastic injection molding or rubber molding, is the original and still dominant market application of the process. In December 2001, 3D Systems formed a joint venture with DSM Desotech called OptoForm LLC to develop a rapid prototyping process, called direct composite manufacturing, which uses photosensitive paste. Stratasys of Eden Prairie, Minn., a supplier of fused deposition modeling machines, is extending the range of thermoplastics used in its systems, an d Z Corp. of Burlington, Mass., is incorporating new pigments into its binders for its starch- and plaster-based materials resulting in brighter colors. RELATED ARTICLE: Stereolithography Cuts Its Teeth. A stereolithography application that has made the transition to rapid manufacturing is the Invisalign process, developed by Align Technology of Santa Clara, Calif., to manufacture teeth aligners, a clear plastic replacement for wire braces. The process is an example of stereolithography used for mass customization. Also see: http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m1511/2_21/59164975/p1/article.jhtml Behold, the 3-D Fax! Discover , Feb, 2000, by Brad Lemley Machines that turn ideas into objects are reshaping everything from Camrys to computers NO SCIENCE FICTION NOVEL IS COMPLETE WITHOUT an appearance of the universal thing-maker. Whether it's called a fabricator, a replicator, or a Mark-12 Hyperduplicator, the basic idea is always the same: a gadget that miraculously creates or copies any object the protagonist desires. The fictional thing-maker may be an abused plot device, but a real one, linked to the Internet and nestled between the microwave and the blender, would be the most exciting domestic appliance ever. Need a comb, a Ken doll, an exhaust manifold for a 1967 Ford Fairlane? Download it. Need another cue stick, fondue fork, crystal vase? Copy it. This fantasy is not as farfetched as it sounds. Three-dimensional printers--known in the industrial world as solid-imaging machines--are already here in nascent form, transforming the way products are designed. Once the first home models arrive, in a decade or so, consumer culture may never be the same. "Your children's children will print their own toys," predicts Mervyn Rudgley; senior director of business development for 3D Systems of Valencia, California, the first and largest company in the field. Charles Hull, founder of 3D Systems, expects the technology will eventually lead to the ultimate in on-line shopping: goods delivered directly into the customer's living room. Hull cooked up the first solid-imaging system in 1984 in a back-room lab while working for a company in San Gabriel, California, that made ultraviolet lamps. Some of the lamps were used to treat special coatings that harden when exposed to ultraviolet light. By extending the process, Hull realized, he could make solid objects from light-cured plastics. Laboring long nights and weekends, he finally persuaded a computer-guided light beam to dance in a precise pattern on the surface of a basin full of gooey polymer. After the jittering beam solidified a thin layer of plastic, a platform just below the surface dropped a fraction of a millimeter, submerging the layer under another coat of polymer, and the procedure repeated itself. Finally; with the topmost layer hardened, the platform rose dramatically, revealing Hull's first creation: a translucent, bluish, inch-tall cup. It still sits in his office. "It's crude," he says, "but it showed what was possible." Hull dubbed the process stereolithography, meaning roughly "printing in three dimensions." Though he's modest and soft-spoken, he knew he had a winner. "I had the sense right from the start that this would be a big industry With this, any shape you could design with a CAD [computer-aided design] program, you could make." When Hull unveiled his machine at a Detroit engineering show in 1987, designers snapped it up. Compared with traditional prototyping, which required artisans to carve wood, sculpt clay; or machine steel, stereolithography seemed miraculous. It could translate a computer model of a camshaft or vane stem into a three-dimensional prototype in hours rather than weeks. And a team in Tokyo could electronically send that model to a stereolithography machine in Tennessee, where collaborators could inspect a physical prototype and zap back instructions for revisions. Also see:http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110309.html Rapid Prototyping: Rapidly Getting Stronger When it comes to rapid prototyping (RP), there are a variety of available systems, but one statement holds true across them: “Materials are critical,” says Mervyn Rudgley, senior director for product development at 3D Systems (Valencia, CA). And when it comes to equipment, size matters, and for some, smaller is better. By Lawrence S. Gould , Contributing Editor This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all. [Photo courtesy of Stratasys] Materials Only ProtoComposites, a family of rapid prototyping (RP) materials recently released by DSM Somos (New Castle, DE), a third-party supplier of RP materials, are mixtures of solids and liquids optimized for RP. Explains Michelle Wyatt, DSM account manager, “These are complex materials in which two or more distinct, complementary substances—especially metals, ceramics, glasses or polymers—combine to produce functional properties not possible using individual components.” For example, Somos ProtoTool from DSM, the first in the company’s line of commercially available ProtoComposite materials, is a silica-based resin. Its heat deflection temperature is greater than 517°F at 66 psi. Another new ProtoComposite, Somos SolidCast, is a hollow-spherically filled material with low-density investment casting pattern properties—a density that’s about half that of conventional resins. Large parts from SolidCast are lighter than those produced with conventional resins. Parts made from SolidCast have a wax-like appearance, a very low heavy-metals content (0.015%), and they require no internal drainage, holes to seal, nor pressure or vacuum testing of patterns. These materials are in addition to the popular DSM Somos 9100. Parts made from this material replicate polypropylene tensile strength and elongation at yield, and have good mechanical memory. This high-speed liquid photopolymer is a good, all-purpose material for prototyping interior automotive parts. The General Motors Technical Center uses 9100 exclusively. Chrysler uses that material, too. But note this: Compared to Somos 9100 series resins, DSM ProtoTool 20L has six times the flexural strength, 2.5 times the tensile strength, and up to 3.5 times the heat deflection temperature. This is one durable resin—one well suited for functional prototypes like impellers, pump housings, headlight reflectors, and wind tunnel test models. Unlike DSM, 3D Systems is an RP equipment supplier, too. 3D also has a broad selection of RP materials. For laser sintering RP, 3D has long offered a metal powder called LaserForm ST-100. Its green strength—the strength of material straight out of the machine before curing—was extremely low, explains 3D’s Mervyn Rudgley. You had to use a fine-haired bristle brush to clear the powder around a prototype made of this material. In December 2002, 3D announced LaserForm ST-200, which has about three times the green strength of ST-100. ST-200 has the characteristics of P20 steel. It is comprised of 420 stainless steel, which is sintered in the selective laser sintering (SLS) system. The sintered part is then infiltrated with bronze in an oven to produce a dense part or tool with complex geometries and intricate feature detail. Or tens of thousands of parts, even with aggressive injection molding materials. “Engineers will be able to design without the necessity to adapt their designs to the limitations of traditional manufacturing methods,” claims Rudgley. 3D is about to release another material for its Vanguard SLS system: LaserForm A6 steel. This material will be stronger still—hardness in the Rockwell C range. (The hardness of ST100 and ST200 are in the Rockwell B range.) A6 material is primarily for injection mold tooling applications. For stereolithography, 3D released last year its Accura line of materials. Accura SI 10 is a general-purpose material with a long vat life, high green strength, and high humidity resistance. SI 10 yields parts with a glossy top finish, and is well suited for thin-wall parts and for master patterns. SI 20 is a durable white material ideal for snap-fit testing and room temperature vulcanization (RTV) applications. SI 30 is a durable low-viscosity material with a fast photo speed. Last, SI 40 resists high temperatures and its toughness is akin to Nylon 6. Parts out of SI 40 feature optical clarity, high flexural modulus, and moderate elongation to break, with a high heat deflection temperature. “This material is ideal for automotive applications, including under-the-hood applications, wind tunnel testing, and flow analysis,” says Rudgley. Another material suitable for under-the-hood automotive applications comes from the other giant in RP: Stratasys (Eden Prairie, MN). PPSF (polyphenylsulfone) is extremely durable and remains strong at high temperatures. Its heat-deflection temperature of PPSF is 417°F at 66 psi and 405°F at 264 psi. This FDM material resists chemicals, acids, and petroleum products. PPSF is used in Stratasys FDM Titan, which can also use ABS plastic and polycarbonate. Smaller is popular Here’s a tidbit from Rudgley: Laser sintering machines are lying dormant. In fact, the use of RP machines across the board has gone down. This has nothing to do with RP technology and everything to do with the current economy. Several RP companies are targeting small prototyping applications, such as design shops and collaborative office situations—places where a communications tool is needed, says Rudgley, so that “instead of everybody staring at a complex drawing for 10 to 15 minutes trying to work out what they’re looking at, they can look at a 3D model.” The result is a rash of RP machines that are basically 3D versions of a standard 2D printer. These RP “printers” sit in an office, require no special training beyond what’s in the user’s manual, and they come with print drivers to load into any standard Windows-based computer. Solidimension Ltd. (Be’erot Itzhak, Israel) has its SD300 3D printer, which sells for about $30,000. The printer uses poly-vinyl chloride (PVC) to make prototypes. It is physically small (16 in. x 29.5 in., by 16.5 in. high) and weighs about 88 lb. with the resin cartridge installed. Parts from the printer can be as large as approximately 9.4 in. x 8 in. x 6 in. high. This printer works off computers running Microsoft Windows 98, 2000, and XP operating systems. Stratasys’ business unit Dimension (Eden Prairie, MN) offers the Dimension 3D printer, which also sells for less than $30,000. This RP printer also does not use any noxious materials and requires no venting or special facilities. It uses ABS materials to make parts (plus a break-away support system). Stratasys also recently inked a deal where it will be the sole distributor of Objet for all of North America. Objet, another Israeli firm, makes the Eden line of photopolymer inkjet machines. Objet’s Eden333 uses UV-cured photopolymers that come in front-loading cartridges to create models about 13.4 in. x 13 in. x 7.9 in. and with super-fine features and surface finishes. The printer, which costs roughly $115,000, is 52 in. wide by 39 in. deep by 47 in. high and weighs 900 lb. For the same target market, 3D Systems has ThermoJet, which costs about $50,000. The latest in that family is Envision, which uses a UVHM material (Ultraviolet Hot Melt) called VisiJet. This is a UV-curable acrolate plastic, not the hot-melt wax jetted through ThermoJet. Each time the Envision print head builds three layers out of UVHM, the machine automatically pushes the part into something like a darkroom. There, a flash-flood UV light cures the layers. Wax provides support, but that melts away when the model is put into an oven at about 160°F. The resulting prototype, says Rudgley, “is a cross between a ThermoJet model and a stereolithography prototype.” In terms of rigidity, the prototype has a material strength about 10 times that of those from ThermoJet, but about a quarter to a third of the strength of the parts made from stereolithography. It’s all about manufacturing “The ultimate goal is to avoid the tooling process and go directly into manufacturing,” says Wyatt. Some industries are already doing this. Boeing, says Rudgley, uses laser sintering plastic to make the air ducts for F18 fighter jets. These ducts are honest-to-goodness, single-piece production parts, with twists and turns and fins inside. Made the conventional way, Boeing would have to make four or five parts for assembly. DSM’s Michelle Wyatt points out that some of the high-end automobiles have very limited production runs. “Using RP to produce some of the automotive parts could save a significant amount of cost.” Also see: http://www.plasticsnews.net/get_vis/459.html (better materials – ceramics)
  • Images: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing
  • Images: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#von_Neumann.27s_kinematic_model RepRap video: http://vimeo.com/5202148
  • Images http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Venter Drew Berry: Animation of unseeable biology http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFCvkkDSfIU
  • Image: http://www.almaden.ibm.com/institute/2006/bio/2006/?modha Image: http://indiatechonline.com/ibm-synapse-chip-developers-541.php
  • The evolution of service science is to apply service science to create a Smarter Planet. What is smarter planet? A smarter planet is built out of many harmonized smarter systems, systems that are instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent (data, models, and analytics software are used to make better decisions) The world is instrumented meaning everything has computers, cameras, gps or other sensors – cars, stop lights, signs, roads, hospitals, retail stores, rivers, bridges, etc.. The world is getting more and more interconnected. If we could capture the right data and analyze it, we can make our planet smarter. IBM has been working on cleaning up pollution in Galway Bay, Ireland. The marine scientists told the IBMers that the mussels in the water close their shells when something bad enters the water. So IBM put sensors in some of the mussels and connected the sensors to an alert system and visualization system. When a pollutant enters the water, the mussels shut their shells, the sensors sends an alert and water management officials begin to take action to clean it up. Over time, they realize that a particular ship may be coming into the bay every other Tuesday, causing the problem, and they can go after the ship company to not drop pollutants or to find another way to rid of waste. This optimization takes place with other causes of the pollutants.
  • What improves quality of life? Service system innovations. Every day we are customers of 13 types of service systems. If any of them fail, we have a “bad day” (Katrina New Orleans) I have been to two service science related conferences recently, one in Japan on Service Design and one in Portugal on Service Marketing… the papers from the proceedings of the conferences mapped onto all of these types of service systems… The numbers in yellow: 61 papers Service Design (Japan) / 75 papers Service Marketing (Portugal) / 78 Papers Service-Oriented Computing (US) Number in yellow Fist number: Service Design Conference, Japan 2 nd International Service Innovation Design Conference (ISIDC 2010), Future University Hakodate, Japan Second number Service Marketing Conference, Portugal, AMA SERVSIG at U Porto, Portugal Numbers in yellow: Number of AMA ServSIG 2010 abstracts that study each type of service system… (http://www.servsig2010.org/) Of 132 total abstracts… 10 studies all types of service systems 19 could not be classified In a moment we will look at definitions of quality of life, but for the moment, consider that everyday we all depend on 13 systems to have a relatively high quality of life, and if any one of these systems goes out or stops providing good service, then our quality of life suffers…. Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Information, Buildings, Retail, Banking & Financial Services (like credit cards), Healthcare, Education, and Government at the City, State, and National levels…. Volcanic ash, hurricanes, earthquakes, snow storms, floods are some of the types of natural disasters that impact the operation of these service systems – but human made challenges like budget crises, bank failures, terrorism, wars, etc. can also impact the operation of these 13 all important service systems. Moreover, even when these systems are operating normally – we humans may not be satisfied with the quality of service or the quality of jobs in these systems. We want both the quality of service and the quality of jobs in these systems to get better year over year, ideally, but sometimes, like healthcare and education, the cost of maintaining existing quality levels seems to be a challenge as costs continue to rise… why is that “smarter” or sustainable innovation, which continuously reduces waste, and expands the capabilities of these systems is so hard to achieve? Can we truly achieve smarter systems and modern service? A number of organizations are asking these questions – and before looking at how these questions are being formalized into grand challenge questions for society – let’s look at what an IBM report concluded after surveying about 400 economists…. ==================== Quality of life for the average citizen (voter) depends on the quality of service and quality of jobs in 13 basic systems….. Local progress (from the perspective of the average citizen or voter) can be defined for our purposes as (quality of service & jobs) + returns (the provider, which is really the investor perspective, the risk taker in provisioning the service) + security (the authority or government perspective on the cost of maintaining order, and dealing with rules and rule violations) + smarter (or the first derivative – does all this get better over time – parents often talk about wanting to help create a better world for their children - sustainable innovation, means reducing waste, being good stewards of the planet, and expanding our capabilities to do things better and respond to challenges and outlier events better)…. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach. Employment data… 2008 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm A. 3+0.4+0.5+8.9+1.4+2.0=16.2 B. C.13.1+1.8=14.9 Total 150,932 (100%) Transportation (Transportation and Warehousing 4,505 (3%)) Water & Waste (Utilities 560 (0.4%)) Food & Manufacturing (Mining 717 (0.5%), Manufacturing 13,431 (8.9%), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,098 (1.4%)) Energy & Electricity Information (Information 2,997 (2%)) Construction (Construction 7,215 (4.8%)) Retail & Hospitality (Wholesale Trade 5,964 (4.0%), Retail Trade 15,356 (10.2%), Leisure and hospitality 13,459 (8.9%)) Financial & Banking/Business & Consulting (Financial activities 8,146 (5.4%), Professional and business services 17,778 (11.8%), Other services 6,333 (4.2%)) Healthcare (Healthcare and social assistance 15,819 (10.5%) Education (Educational services 3,037 (2%), Self-employed and unpaid family 9,313 (6.2%), Secondary jobs self-employed and unpaid family 1,524 (1.0%)) City Gov State Gov (State and local government 19,735 (13.1%)) Federal Gov (Federal government 2,764 (1.8%))
  • As we think about the future of cities and universities, as an optimist, I see future cities and universities better than they are today… what IBM calls a Smarter Planet is such a vision -- today cities and universities sustain our high quality of living on the planet -- we believe they do an even better job in the future – in future cities and universities, we can all do a better job of applying, creating, and transferring knowledge generation over generation… http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf In a recent survey of young Californians, 90% said internet access was essential for a high quality of life, and 50% said access to a smart phone was essential for a high quality of life. Some would say that the middle-class person today lives better than king’s did a thousand years ago… perhaps that is true in terms of material comforts… and in 1836 Nathan Rothschild the richest many in the British Empire, perhaps the world died of an infected abscess… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Mayer_Rothschild By the time an infected abscess caused his death in 1836, his personal net worth amounted to 0.62% of British national income.
  • Service systems and knowledge access evolving Nested, networked holistic product-service systems that provide “Whole Service” to the people-inside Source: Whole Service http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056 Source: Third Stream http://www2.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/Research/CCPN/pdf/russell_report_thirdStream.pdf
  • Because nations compete and cooperate, they can be studied as abstract entities (service systems) learning to apply knowledge to co-create value with other nations. Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems… Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “off the chart” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
  • Universities connect information flows between other HSS, cities, states, nations Local optimizations can spread quickly to other HSS… Top 3000 cities: http://www.mongabay.com/cities_pop_02.htm Of course the opportunity is not just local – while local innovation impact the lives of staff, faculty, students and their families most directly – as cities partner more (twin city and sister city programs) and as universities also establish global collaborations with campuses in other regions of the world – the opportunity for better city-university partnerships is both local and global.
  • What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems? Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance. =============\\ Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
  • Researchers at University of Cambridge hosted industry and academic service researchers to create a framework for service innovation success… The framework is outlined in five columns – service innovation is the priority, we need to study service systems and networks, we call this study service science, and multiple stakeholders have to align to advance service science, and double investment in service research and education by 2015. You can read the complete report at the following URL: http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/ To ensure we are making progress, we need to see how much government, academia, and industry are investing in service research and innovation. IfM and IBM (2008). Succeeding through service innovation: A service perspective for education, research, business and government. Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing.
  • The reasonable questions: What is a service system? What is service science?
  • In the future, robots will build and recycle whole buildings in a matter of hours. Already at Dongting lake in the Hunan Province in China, the Broad group has used prefab architecture to construct a 30 story building in 15 days (360 hours). When robots are used for construction and recycling, it will be even faster and more cost efficient. The building was stronger, safer, and more energy efficient than previous Broad group hotels. We often think of resiliency as the ability to recover very quickly, after a natural disaster or other external shock to a system. In the future resiliency will be more about rebuilding and recycling quickly to take advantage of newer and better materials, and ways of doing things. The external shocks to the system will more often than not be new innovations, not natural disasters… Headline: 30 stories in 15 days (story on Jan 10 th 2012 – built on Dec 31 2011) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/30-story-hotel-constructed-in-15-days_n_1197991.html
  • Imagine cars and other products, being part of local physical supply chains. Manufacturing as a local recycling and assembly service Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin
  • In the future, robots will drive most of the cars – faster, safer, and more economically than people can. Of course, the future is already here, it is just not well distributed. The state of Nevada was the first state to allow self-driving vehicles to legally drive on their roads, as of June 22, 2011. http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/06/22/nevada-passes-law-authorizing-driverless-cars/ Headline: Robot Car Helps Blind Man Get a Taco March 29th, 2012 http://www.robotshop.com/blog/robot-car-helps-blind-man-get-a-taco-1564 Self-Driving Car Test – Steve Mahan
  • There are many visions of the future – and many show innovations that improve quality of life… by improving the way we interact to co-create value with others… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0
  • Transportation is essential for flows and buildings are essential for human development Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin
  • Cities are about 2% of the land area, with 50% of the popuoation and 75% of the energy consumption, and 80% of the carbon emissions, according to Carolo Ratti who heads MIT Senseable Cities at MIT Media Lab. Of course, while the buildings and transportation in cities are important – what is really important are the people…. Headline: TED talk: Carlo Ratti (MIT) Architecture that senses and resonds http://www.ted.com/talks/carlo_ratti_architecture_that_senses_and_responds.html
  • Before we talk about the future of technology…. We should remember rules matter a lot too…. How we design systems matters….. Both how we design the technology & the rules (or institutions we live in) matters a lot… It matters for four key measures of systems – innovativeness, equity, sustainability, and resiliency… Societal performance on these four measures depends on technology (infrastructure), rules (institutions), skills (individuals), and what we value interms of quality of life (information)… Why are these people smiling? Every year NFL (National Football League) teams select the best new college players who indicate they are eligible for the NFL Draft…. Stanford’s quarterback Andrew Luck is one the best from 2011 What’s interesting is the Indianapolis Colts, the team he will play for the next decade, is one of the worst Source: http://www.rgj.com/viewart/20120426/SPORTS/304260061/NFL-draft-Colts-take-Stanford-QB-Andrew-Luck-open-draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft
  • http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/ And the NAE’s Engineering Grand Challenge problems include – making solar energy economical – which fits into category 4. Smarter Energy… there are at least two NAE grand challenges that related to 10. Smarter Education systems – Advance personalized learning and Engineer the tools of scientific discovery… one might also want to include enhance virtual reality and reverse engineer the brain – and I included those under 5. Smarter Information systems… the point is that solving any one of these 14 NAE grand challenge problems has the potential to have significant impact on one or more of the 13 systems that we all depend on every day for quality of life… And so now would be a good time to say a little bit more about the component measurements and the challenges of defining quality of life…
  • There are many opportunities for educational institutions to specialize. Better tuned competence of individuals allows graduates to hit the ground running and better fill roles in business and societal institutions…. Better general education will allow more rapid learning of an arbitrary area of specialization, and create a more flexible labor force… All service systems transform something – perhaps the location, availability, and configuration of materials (flow of things), or perhaps people and what they do (people’s activities), or perhaps the rules of the game, constraints and consequences (governance). How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
  • Ready for Life-Long-Learning Ready for Teamwork Ready to Help Build a Smarter Planet T-shaped people are ready for Teamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one culture, one discipline and one systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other cultures, disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
  • Future of Work Skills 2020 http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/front/docs/sponsored/phoenix/future_work_skills_2020.pdf What are the top majors of 2022? http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/05/09/the-top-majors-for-the-class-of-2022/2/
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • However, it is also arguable that universities are important for resiliency… Source: http://www.nyu.edu/about/leadership-university-administration/office-of-the-president/redirect/speeches-statements/global-network-university-reflection.html
  • One of the 100 icons of progress is SSME – Service Science Management and Engineering….
  • Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM#cite_note-10K-0 http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33341.wss http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
  • So maybe technology will help us have greater and greater resiliency…. However, paradoxically there is a hidden cost to all this technology… How much knowledge does it take for a country, state, or city to have good measures on innovativeness, equity, sustainability, and resiliency? Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwIjcv7OWMo Cesar Hidalgo, see minutes 7-19 of a longer youtube video
  • No one person has the knowledge or capabilities without the help of others and accumulated technology to build something as simple as a pencil. So resiliency and quality-of-life will exhibit scale effects and knowledge burden fragility… Source: http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Gppi-O3a8 http://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch.html
  • Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Simon http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/bio/jones_b.htm The Burden of Knowledge and the 'Death of the Renaissance Man': Is Innovation Getting Harder? Benjamin F. Jones NBER Working Paper No. 11360 Issued in May 2005 NBER Program(s):    PR This paper investigates, theoretically and empirically, a possibly fundamental aspect of technological progress. If knowledge accumulates as technology progresses, then successive generations of innovators may face an increasing educational burden. Innovators can compensate in their education by seeking narrower expertise, but narrowing expertise will reduce their individual capacities, with implications for the organization of innovative activity - a greater reliance on teamwork - and negative implications for growth. I develop a formal model of this "knowledge burden mechanism" and derive six testable predictions for innovators. Over time, educational attainment will rise while increased specialization and teamwork follow from a sufficiently rapid increase in the burden of knowledge. In cross-section, the model predicts that specialization and teamwork will be greater in deeper areas of knowledge while, surprisingly, educational attainment will not vary across fields. I test these six predictions using a micro-data set of individual inventors and find evidence consistent with each prediction. The model thus provides a parsimonious explanation for a range of empirical patterns of inventive activity. Upward trends in academic collaboration and lengthening doctorates, which have been noted in other research, can also be explained by the model, as can much-debated trends relating productivity growth and patent output to aggregate inventive effort. The knowledge burden mechanism suggests that the nature of innovation is changing, with negative implications for long-run economic growth.
  • Specialization Division of Labor – Wealth of Nation The Theory of Moral Sentiments , 1759, and An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations , 1776 Comparative Advantage - Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (1817) Chapter on Value and Riches Credits: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ricardo
  • Recombination (Integration) Creative Destruction – Increasing Gains, How Technology Evolves, The Second Economy Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brian_Arthur_-_World_Economic_Forum_Annual_Meeting_2011.jpg
  • Where are the opportunities? Everywhere! Every city and region of the world needs smarter energy, buildings, water transportation, healthcare, etc. - building IT-enabled smarter systems is what IBM is all about these days… many of our acquisitions have been software companies that specialize in analytics and optimization – getting insights from mountains of data, and using that to build smarter systems… IBM 2009 Annual Report – survey of smarter planet projects around the world…. But how do we involve universities more? How do we weave a “total solution” that includes universities in smarter city projects? What is the role of the university in creating a smarter city? In the continuous improvement of quality of life in cities? And aren’t universities really mini-cities within cities? … and on this Map of the World, in the 2009 IBM Annual report one can see a sampling of IBM Smarter Planet engagements around the world… working to improve the complete spectrum of system of systems… often with a focus on one system in one city… such as smarter energy in venezula or smarter medical research for healthcare in the US… some of these engagements include a partnership between the cities and universities – but much more opportunity exists… to help focus cities and universities, among others, on these opportunities… IBM and other organizations have begun to identify grand challenge problems…. For example, if you look at the IBM Smarter Planet website….
  • http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-college Posted below are 21 statistics about college tuition, student loan debt and the quality of college education in the United States.... #1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent . #2 In 2010, the average college graduate had accumulated approximately $25,000 in student loan debt by graduation day. #3 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loans . #4 Americans have accumulated well over $900 billion in student loan debt. That figure is higher than the total amount of credit card debt in the United States. #5 The typical U.S. college student spends less than 30 hours a week on academics. #6 According to very extensive research detailed in a new book entitled "Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses", 45 percent of U.S. college students exhibit "no significant gains in learning" after two years in college. #7 Today, college students spend approximately 50% less time studying than U.S. college students did just a few decades ago. #8 35% of U.S. college students spend 5 hours or less studying per week. #9 50% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to write more than 20 pages. #10 32% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to read more than 40 pages in a week. #11 U.S. college students spend 24% of their time sleeping, 51% of their time socializing and 7% of their time studying. #12 Federal statistics reveal that only 36 percent of the full-time students who began college in 2001 received a bachelor's degree within four years. #13 Nearly half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners. #14 According to the Economic Policy Institute, the unemployment rate for college graduates younger than 25 years old was 9.3 percent in 2010. #15 One-third of all college graduates end up taking jobs that don't even require college degrees. #16 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees. #17 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees. #18 In the United States today, approximately 365,000 cashiers have college degrees. #19 In the United States today, 24.5 percent of all retail salespersons have a college degree. #20 Once they get out into the "real world", 70% of college graduates wish that they had spent more time preparing for the "real world" while they were still in school. #21 Approximately 14 percent of all students that graduate with student loan debt end up defaulting within 3 years of making their first student loan payment.
  • Technology is used by providers to perform more and more of the routine manual, cognitive, and transactional work Jobs Change: Individual Competencies & Institutional Roles
  • Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (spohrer@us.ibm.com) This talk provided a concise introduction to SSME+D evolving, and applying Service Science to build a Smarter Planet… Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2010) Presentation: SSME+D (for Design) Evolving: Update on Service Science Progress & Directions. Event. Place. Date. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com But I want to end by sharing some relevant quotes… The first you may have seen on TV or heard on the radio – it is from IBM – Instrumented, Interconnected, Intellient – Let’s build a smarter planet (more on this one shortly) Second, If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities, (as we will see cities turn out to be ideal building blocks to get right for a number of reasons) And if we focus on cities, then the quote from the Foundation Metropolitan paints the right picture, cities learning from cities learning from cities… The next is probably the best known quote in the group “think global, act local” (we will revisit this important thought) Since all the major cities of the world have one or more universities, the next quote is of interest “the future is born in universities” And two more well known quotes about the future – the best way to predict the future is to build it, and the future is already here… it is just not evenly distributed. The next quote is an important one for discipline specialists at universities to keep in mind – real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries (so be on guard for myopic solutions that appear too good to be true, they often are!)… Because if we are not careful, today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions… And since we cannot anticipate all risks or quickly resolve them once we notice them, we should probably never forget what HG Wells said - that history is a race between education and catastrophe… In a world of accelerating change, this last statement also serves as a reminder that the pace of real innovation in education is a good target for study in terms of smarter systems and modern service…
  • In conclusion, let’s consider the big picture – starting with the big bang…. and evolution of the earth, life on earth, human life, cities, universities, and the modern world… the evolution of observed hierarchical-complexity Age of natural systems (age of the universe): Big Bang http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_universe Age of urban systems (age of complex human-made world): Oldest city http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_time_of_continuous_habitation (end of last Ice Age was about 20,000 years ago, about 5 million people on earth by 10,000 years ago) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/100k.html (last Ice Age was probably started about 70,000 years ago when a super volcano erupted blocking sun light) Many people still ask -- where is the science in the “Service Science?” One answer is that the science is hidden away in each of the component disciplines that study service systems, scientifically from their particular perspective… However, the big picture answer is “Ecology” - Ecology is the study of the abundance and distribution of entities (populations of things) in an environment… and how the entities interact with each other and their environment over successive generations of entities. The natural sciences (increasingly interdisciplinary) study the left side, using physics, chemistry, and biology Service science (originated as interdisciplinary) studies the right side, using history, economics, management, engineering, design, etc. Service science is still a young area, but from the growth of service in nations and businesses to the opportunity to apply service science to build a smarter planet, innovate service systems, and improve quality of life… it is an emerging science with bright future, and yes… it will continue to evolve : - ) Most people think of ecology in terms of living organisms, like plants and animals in a natural environment. However, the concept of ecology is more general and can be applied to entities as diverse as the populations of types of atoms in stars to the types of businesses in a national economy. I want to start my talk today on “service,” by first thinking broadly about ecologies of entities and their interactions. Eventually, we will get to human-made service system entities and human-made value-cocreation mechanisms… but for today, let’s really start at the very beginning – the big bang. About 14B years ago (indicated by the top of this purple bar), our universe started with a big bang. And through a process of known as fusion, stars turned populations of lighter atoms like hydrogen into heavier atoms like helium, and when stars of a certain size have done all the fusion they could, they would start slowing down, and eventually collapse rapidly, go nova, explode and send heavier atoms out into the universe, and eventually new stars form, and the process repeats over and over, creating stars with different populations of types of atoms, including heavier and heavier elments. So where did our sun and the earth come from…. Eventually after about ten billion years in the ecology of stars and atoms within stars, a very important star formed our sun (the yellow on the left) – and there were plenty of iron and nickel atoms swirling about as our sun formed, and began to burn 4.5B years ago, and the Earth formed about 4.3B years ago (the blue on the left)… In less than a billion years, the early earth evolved a remarkable ecology of complex molecules, including amino acids, and after less than a billion years, an ecology of bacteria took hold on early earth (the bright green on the left). The ecology of single cell bacteria flourished and after another billion years of interactions between the bacteria, the first multicellular organisms formed, and soon the ecology of sponges (the light blue on the left) and other multi-cellular entities began to spread out across the earth. Then after nearly two billion years, a type of division of labor between the cells in multicelluar organism lead to entities with cells acting as neurons in the first clams (the red on the left), and these neurons allowed the clams to open and close at the right time. After only 200 million years, tribolites appeared the first organisms with dense neural structures that could be called brains appeared (the black on the left), and then after about 300 million years, multicelluar organisms as complex as bees appeared (the olive on the left), and these were social insects, with division of labor among individuals in a population, with queens, drones, worker bees. So 200 million years ago, over 13B years after the big bang, the ecology of living entities is well established on planet earth, including social entities with brains and division of labor between individuals in a population…. Living in colonies that some have compared to human cities – where thousands of individuals live in close proximity and divide up the work that needs to be done to help the colony survive through many, many generations of individuals that come and go. Bees are still hear today. And their wingless cousins, called ants, have taken division of labor to incredible levels of complexity in ant cities in nearly every ecological niche on the planet, except under water. Now let’s look at the human ecology,and the formation of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms, a small portion of which is represented by the colored bar on the right. Recall bees appeared about 200 million years ago, a small but noticeable fraction of the age of the universe. Now take 1% of this little olive slice, which is 2 million years… that is how long people have been on earth, just one percent of this little olive slice here. What did people do in most of that 2million years? Basically, they spread out to every corner of the planet, and changed their skin color, eye colors, and hair colors, they spread out and became diverse with many different appearances and languages. It took most of that 200 millions just to spread out and cover most of the planet with people. When there was no more room to spread out the density of people in regions went up…. Now take 1% of that 2million years of human history which basically involved spreading out to every corner of the planet and becoming more diverse, recall ecology is the study of abundance and distribution and types of interactions, and 1% of that 2million years is just 20,000 years, and now divide that in half and that represents 10,000 years. The bar on the right represents 10,000 years or just 500 generations of people, if a generation is about 20 years. 500 generations ago humans built the first cities, prior to this there were no cities so the roughly 5M people spread out around the world 0% lived in cities, but about 500 generations ago the first cities formed, and division of labor and human-made service interactions based on division of labor took off – this is our human big bang – the explosion of division of labor in cities. Cities were the big bang for service scientists, because that is when the diversity of specialized roles and division of labor, which is at the heart of a knowledge-based service economy really begins to take off... So cities are the first really important type of human-made service system entities for service scientists to study, the people living in the city, the urban dwellers or citizens are both customers of and providers of service to each other, and division of labor is the first really important type of human-made value-cocreation mechanism for service scientists to study. (Note families are a very important type of service system entity, arguably more important than cities and certainly much older – however, family structure is more an evolution of primate family structure – and so in a sense is less of a human-made service system entity and more of an inherited service system entity… however, in the early cities often the trades were handed down father to son, and mother to daughter as early service businesses were often family run enterprises in which the children participated – so families specialized and the family names often reflect those specialization – for example, much later in England we get the family names like smith, mason, taylor, cooper, etc.) So to a service scientist, we are very excited about cities as important types of service system entities, and division of labor as an important type of value-cocreation mechanism, and all this really takes off in a big way just 500 generations ago when the world population was just getting to around 5M people spread out all around the world – so 10,000 years about about 1% of the worlds population was living in early versions of cities. It wasn’t until 1900 that 10% of the world’s then nearly 2B people lived in cities, and just this last decade that 50% of the worlds 6B people lived in cities, and by 2050 75% of the worlds projected 10B population will be urban dwellers. If there is a human-made service system that we need to design right, it is cities. It should be noted that the growth of what economist call the service sector, parallels almost exactly the growth of urban population size and increased division-of-labor opportunities that cities enable – so in a very real sense SERVICE GROWTH IS CITY GROWTH OR URBAN POPULATION GROWTH… in the last decade service jobs passed agriculture jobs for the first time, and urban dwellers passed rural dwellers for the first time. But I am starting to get ahead of myself, let’s look at how the human-made ecology of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms evolved over the last 10,000 years or 500 generations. The population of artifacts with written language on them takes off about 6000 years ago or about 300 generations ago (the yellow bar on the right). Expertise with symbols helped certain professions form – and the first computers were people writing and processing symbols - scribes were required, another division of labor – so the service of reading and writing, which had a limited market at first began to emerge to help keep better records. Scribes were in many ways the first computers, writing and reading back symbols – and could remember more and more accurately than anyone else. Written laws (blue on right) that govern human behavior in cities takes off about 5000 years ago – including laws about property rights, and punishment for crimes. Shortly there after, coins become quite common as the first type of standard monetary and weight measurement system (green on right). So legal and economic infrastructure for future service system entities come along about 5000 years ago, or 250 generations ago, with perhaps 2% of the population living in cities…. (historical footnote: Paper money notes don’t come along much until around about 1400 years ago – bank notes, so use of coins is significantly older than paper money, and paper money really required banks as service system entities before paper money could succeed.). About 50 generations ago, we get the emergence of another one of the great types of service system entities – namely universities (light blue line) – students are the customers, as well as the employers that need the students. Universities help feed the division of labor in cities that needed specialized skills, including the research discipline skills needed to deepen bodies of knowledge in particular discipline areas. The red line indicates the population of printing presses taking off in the world, and hence the number of books and newspapers. This was only about 500 years or 25 generations ago. Now university faculty and students could more easily get books, and cities began to expand as the world’s population grew, and more cities had universities as well. The black line indicates the beginning of the industrial revolution about 200 years ago, the sream engine, railroads, telegraph and proliferation of the next great type of service system entity – the manufacturing businesses - that benefited from standard parts, technological advances and scale economies, and required professional managers and engineers. About 100 years ago, universities began adding business schools to keep up with the demand for specialized business management skills, and many new engineering disciplines including civil engineering, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, and electrical engineering, fuel specialization and division of labor. By 1900, just over 100 years ago, or 5 generations ago 10% of the worlds population, or about 200 million people were living in cities and many of those cities had universities or were starting universities. Again fueling specialization, division of labor, and the growth of service as a component of the economy measured by traditional economists. Finally, just 60 years ago or 3 generations ago, the electronic semiconductor transistor was developed (indicated by the olive colored line on the right), and the information age took off, and many information intensive service activities could now benefit from computers to improve technology (e.g., accounting) and many other areas. So to recap, cities are one of the oldest and most important type of service system and universities are an important and old type of service system, as well as many types of businesses. Service science is the study of service system entities, their abundance and distribution, and their interactions. Division of labor is one of the most important types of value cocreation mechanisms, and people often need specialized skills to fill roles in service systems. Service science like ecology studies entities and their interactions over successive generations. New types of human-made service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms continue to form, like wikipedia and peer production systems. Age of Unvierse (Wikipedia) The age of the universe is the time elapsed between the Big Bang and the present day. Current theory and observations suggest that the universe is 13.75 ±0.17 billion years old. [1] Age of Sun The Sun was formed about 4.57 billion years ago when a hydrogen molecular cloud collapsed. [85] Solar formation is dated in two ways: the Sun's current main sequence age, determined using computer models of stellar evolution and nucleocosmochronology , is thought to be about 4.57 billion years. [86] This is in close accord with the radiometric date of the oldest Solar System material, at 4.567 billion years ago. [87] [88] Age of Earth The age of the Earth is around 4.54 billion years (4.54 × 109 years ± 1%). [1] [2] [3] This age has been determined by radiometric age dating of meteorite material and is consistent with the ages of the oldest-known terrestrial and lunar samples . The Sun , in comparison, is about 4.57 billion years old , about 30 million years older. Age of Bacteria (Uni-cellular life) The ancestors of modern bacteria were single-celled microorganisms that were the first forms of life to develop on earth, about 4 billion years ago. For about 3 billion years, all organisms were microscopic, and bacteria and archaea were the dominant forms of life. [22] [23] Although bacterial fossils exist, such as stromatolites , their lack of distinctive morphology prevents them from being used to examine the history of bacterial evolution, or to date the time of origin of a particular bacterial species. However, gene sequences can be used to reconstruct the bacterial phylogeny , and these studies indicate that bacteria diverged first from the archaeal/eukaryotic lineage. [24] The most recent common ancestor of bacteria and archaea was probably a hyperthermophile that lived about 2.5 billion–3.2 billion years ago. [25] [26] Cities (Wikipedia) Early cities developed in a number of regions of the ancient world. Mesopotamia can claim the earliest cities, particularly Eridu, Uruk, and Ur. After Mesopotamia, this culture arose in Syria and Anatolia, as shown by the city of Çatalhöyük (7500-5700BC). Writing (Wikipedia) Writing is an extension of human language across time and space. Writing most likely began as a consequence of political expansion in ancient cultures, which needed reliable means for transmitting information, maintaining financial accounts, keeping historical records, and similar activities. Around the 4th millennium BC, the complexity of trade and administration outgrew the power of memory, and writing became a more dependable method of recording and presenting transactions in a permanent form [2] . In both Mesoamerica and Ancient Egypt writing may have evolved through calendrics and a political necessity for recording historical and environmental events. Written Law (Wikipedia) The history of law is closely connected to the development of civilization . Ancient Egyptian law, dating as far back as 3000 BC, contained a civil code that was probably broken into twelve books. It was based on the concept of Ma'at , characterised by tradition, rhetorical speech, social equality and impartiality. [81] [82] By the 22nd century BC, the ancient Sumerian ruler Ur- Nammu had formulated the first law code , which consisted of casuistic statements ("if ... then ..."). Around 1760 BC, King Hammurabi further developed Babylonian law , by codifying and inscribing it in stone. Hammurabi placed several copies of his law code throughout the kingdom of Babylon as stelae , for the entire public to see; this became known as the Codex Hammurabi . The most intact copy of these stelae was discovered in the 19th century by British Assyriologists, and has since been fully transliterated and translated into various languages, including English, German, and French. [83] Money (Wikipedia) Many cultures around the world eventually developed the use of commodity money . The shekel was originally both a unit of currency and a unit of weight. [10] . The first usage of the term came from Mesopotamia circa 3000 BC. Societies in the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australia used shell money – usually, the shell of the money cowry ( Cypraea moneta ) were used. According to Herodotus , and most modern scholars, the Lydians were the first people to introduce the use of gold and silver coin . [11] It is thought that these first stamped coins were minted around 650–600 BC. [12] Universities (Wikipedia) Prior to their formal establishment, many medieval universities were run for hundreds of years as Christian cathedral schools or monastic schools ( Scholae monasticae ), in which monks and nuns taught classes; evidence of these immediate forerunners of the later university at many places dates back to the 6th century AD. [7] The first universities were the University of Bologna (1088), the University of Paris (c. 1150, later associated with the Sorbonne ), the University of Oxford (1167), the University of Palencia (1208), the University of Cambridge (1209), the University of Salamanca (1218), the University of Montpellier (1220), the University of Padua (1222), the University of Naples Federico II (1224), the University of Toulouse (1229). [8] [9] Printing and Books (Wikipedia) Johannes Gutenberg's work on the printing press began in approximately 1436 when he partnered with Andreas Dritzehn—a man he had previously instructed in gem-cutting—and Andreas Heilmann, owner of a paper mill. [34] However, it was not until a 1439 lawsuit against Gutenberg that an official record exists; witnesses' testimony discussed Gutenberg's types, an inventory of metals (including lead), and his type molds. [34]
  • The Up-Skill Cycle People flow through the system of entities… As they flow they are upskilled…. Entities: Mature IBM Business Unit: From mature-business unit Acquired-IBM Business Unit: From IBM “acquired company” business unit University: From university role Venture: From venture that spun off from a university Other: None of the above One possible path A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “finance” The IBMer’s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut The IBMer moves to a new IBM acquisition to help the new acquisition adopt/learn IBM finance procedures After that the IBMer moves to a university as an IBMer on Campus The IBMer might work in a department/discipline, in the university incubator, or a university start-up, or even be a student at the university Eventually the IBMer signs up to be pat of a new venture that is spinning off from the university The new venture is aligned with IBM via HW, SW, or other IBM offerings/strategy IBM helps scale up the new venture global IBM might decide to acquire the new venture The IBM in the acquired new venture helps the new venture become a high growth business unit of IBM After the new IBM business unit asymptotes on revenue and profit improves, it has become a mature business unit Now the IBMer is back in a mature business unit, and the cycle repeats… A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “finance” The IBMer’s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut Transitions: Self-loop IBMer stays in mature business unit IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a newly acquired IBM acquisition IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a university role IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a new venture that spun off from a university IBMer transitions from mature business unit to an entity not mentioned above (some where else)
  • Service system entities learn to systematically exploit info & tech Learning Systems – Choice and Change Do = operate in comfort zone, applying existing knowledge Copy = to be the best, learn from the rest Invent = double monetize from internal use and external sales Add Rickets “Reaching the Goal” for Internal-External-Interaction Constraints. Explain Incremental-Radical-Super-Radical in terms of units (scientific measurement) For more on Exploitation-Exploration see below.. http://sonic.northwestern.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Keynote-Watts_Collective_Problems.pdf Lavie D & L Rosenkopf (2006) BALANCING EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION IN ALLIANCE FORMATION, The Academy of Management Journal, 49(4). 797-818. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi= “ Pressures for exploration. Whereas inertia drives firms’ tendencies to exploit, absorptive capacity facilitates counter pressures by furnishing the mechanism via which firms can identify the need for and direction of exploratory activities. Exploration is guided not only by inventing but also by learning from others (Huber, 1991; Levitt & March, 1988) and by employing external knowledge (March & Simon, 1958). Absorptive capacity, defined as the ability to value, assimilate, and apply external knowledge (Cohen & Levinthal, 1990), helps firms identify emerging opportunities and evaluate their prospects, thus enhancing exploration. It adjusts firms’ aspiration levels, so that they become attuned to learning opportunities and more proactive in exploring them. Indeed, prior research has demonstrated how absorptive capacity enhance organizational responsiveness and directs scientific and entrepreneurial discovery (Deeds, 2001; Rosenkopf & Nerkar, 2001). It also increases the likelihood of identifying external opportunities and can therefore lead to exploration in one or more domains of alliance formation.” For more on Run-Transform-Innovate see below… When I asked how he measures the performance and effectiveness of IBM's IT team, Hennessy pointed to its "run-to-transform" ratio. IBM's IT department is divided into three groups: a "run" organization that's responsible for keeping systems running smoothly; a "transform" team focused on business-process simplification and other business transformation; and an "innovate" unit that pursues leading-edge technology initiatives. Hennessy reports to Linda Sanford, IBM's senior VP of on-demand transformation and IT. Practicing what it preaches, IBM doesn't think of its IT organization as being merely an IT department. "We call it BT and IT," Hennessy says, giving business transformation equal billing to the software, systems, and services side of its mission. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2009/04/ibm_cio_turns_d.html IBM CIO's Strategy: Run, Transform, Innovate Posted by John Foley on Apr 30, 2009 11:05 AM Like other CIOs, IBM's Mark Hennessy knows that a dollar saved on data center operations is a dollar earned for business-technology innovation. IBM has moved the dial on its IT budget 10 percentage points toward innovation in recent years, and Hennessy says there are still more operational efficiencies to be gained.I sat down with Hennessy for more than an hour recently in New York to talk about how he has adapted to being a CIO. A 25-year IBM veteran, he took over as CIO about 18 months ago, having spent most of his career on the business side, in sales, marketing, finance, and, most recently, as general manager of IBM's distribution sector, which works with clients in the retail, travel, transportation, and consumer products industries. Hennessy's IT team supports the company's strategy in three broad ways: by running and optimizing IBM's internal IT operations, by working with IBM business units in support of their objectives, and by facilitating company-wide collaboration, innovation, and technology requirements across 170 countries. In times past, IBM had as many as 128 different CIOs across its businesses. These days--in support of CEO Sam Palmisano's strategy of establishing a global, integrated enterprise--it has only one, and Hennessy is it. When I asked how he measures the performance and effectiveness of IBM's IT team, Hennessy pointed to its "run-to-transform" ratio. IBM's IT department is divided into three groups: a "run" organization that's responsible for keeping systems running smoothly; a "transform" team focused on business-process simplification and other business transformation; and an "innovate" unit that pursues leading-edge technology initiatives. A few years ago, IBM was spending 73% of its IT budget on keeping systems and services running and 27% on innovation. This year, its run-to-transform ratio will hit 63%-37%. Roughly speaking, IBM is shifting an additional 2% of its IT budget from run to innovation each year, and Hennessy has every expectation that his group will continue moving the ratio in that direction. "I don't see an end in sight," he says. In fact, Hennessy says that IBM's run-to-innovation ratio has improved more this year than last. "So it's actually accelerating for us," he says. Where do the efficiencies come from? The same place other CIOs find them. Server virtualization, data center consolidation (IBM has consolidated 155 data centers down to five), energy savings, applications simplification (from 15,000 apps to 4,500 apps), end user productivity, organizational collaboration, shifting skills globally, and business-process simplification. IBM has internal IT projects underway now in the areas of its supply chain, finance, workforce management, and order-to-cash processes. Hennessy reports to Linda Sanford, IBM's senior VP of on-demand transformation and IT. Practicing what it preaches, IBM doesn't think of its IT organization as being merely an IT department. "We call it BT and IT," Hennessy says, giving business transformation equal billing to the software, systems, and services side of its mission.
  • In the Handbook of Service Science, and other publications, we have layed out the conceptual foundations of service science – the first approximation of terms we believe every service scientist should know… The world view is that of an ecology of service-system-entities. Ecology is the study of the populations of entities, and their interactions with each other and the environment Types of Service System Entities, Interactions, and Outcomes is what a service scientist studies. Service systems include: Person, Family/Household, Business, Citiy, Nation, University, Hospital, Call-Center, Data-Center, etc. – any legal entity that can own property and be sued We see that Resources (People, Technology, Information, Organizations) and Stakeholder (Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors) are part of the conceptual framework for service science.
  • Both individual people and institutions/organizations are learning… this is the vision of the educational continuum… http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address] So how did we do in 2011....(talk through the results) The results show that IBM is growing its footprint across the Growth Markets by continuing to deliver creative solutions to very complex challenges. We are helping governments and organisations integrate systems and services where they have never before (banking sector, CEE; cities and their services Our business analytics solutions helped our clients leverage massive amounts of data and content to gain insight and optimize results. This year, business analytics grew 16 percent. Our Smarter Planet initiatives generated close to 50 percent growth. Smarter Commerce in particular is gaining momentum by helping companies buy, market, sell and service their products and services. We’re not just addressing an existing market, we’re actually making markets. In cloud, we’re helping our clients improve the economics of IT. This year, we continued to expand our offerings, and our cloud revenue in 2011 was more than three times the prior year. With powerful contribution from these growth initiatives, we delivered 7 percent revenue growth. Our belief is that the opportunities for growth to continue in 2012 is significant, despite the predictions of slowing GDP and increasing tensions (financial and political) in parts of the world
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • How would we even begin to measure the capability increases of each advance? Why do we need metrics? Because we want to track, invest, and delivery significant innovations. Surely the perspectives and hence metrics will evolve over time, but as a baseline what can we say about the relative significance of different innovations. Significance may be a subjective relevance measure – an individual takes a fancy to something and promotes it. Rational decision making depends on metrics. Book picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0679758941/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link Author picture: http://www.nonzero.org/images/rwrightcrop.gif Book text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0679758941/qid=1077240777/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/103-3454405-6368663 Mediators help us externalize the mind and connect minds. Create islands of knowledge and connect islands of knowledge.
  • KPIs = Key Performance Indicators, the measures of service system performance Focus on service system resources, access rights, stakeholders (value propositions), and measures (KPIs) Calculating ROI and Success Rate for an industrial service research group 4 outstanding at $100M each and 11 accomplishments at $10M each = $510M business impact result in 7 years 2 outstanding at $100M each and 9 accomplishments at $10M each = $290M business impact result in 6 years 290M/8x ROI = 36M of base funding for 210 Person-years (36M/210 = $172K/person base funding level) 210 person years over six years = 10,20,40,50,50,40 (in year one there were 10 people, in year two 20 people, in year 3 40 people, etc.) Accomplishments (12 PY, 3-5 person, 2-4 years) = expected 12 PY (4 x 3) Outstanding (24 PY additional, 6-10 persons, 2-4 years) = additional 24 PY (8 x 3) = +24 is 12+24 = 36 So 2 outstandings take 36 (36 PY) and 9 accomplishments 12 (12 PY) = 2 * 36 + 9 x 12 = 72 + 108 = 180 (one could ask if this double counts on outstandings, since it pre-supposes and earlier accomplishment – in fact most accomplishments have more than $100M impact, so this is OK). 180/210 = 0.86 = 86% success rate (a big debate in research organizations is what should the success rate be – 100% success rate probably implies you are not taking enough risk, so learning/returns will not be maximized long-term) (put another way – solving really, really hard problems is not 100% guaranteed, but if they are solved they can pay enormous dividends; sometimes more so than simpler problems to solve) CBM = Component Business Model (Models of over 70 industries, decomposed into 100-200 business components/service systems, with associated KPIs) IDG = Intelligent Document Gateway (Process improvement workbench - process automation, business rules engines, authoring capability, document scan capability, etc.) SDM = Solution Design Manager (complex service offerings delivered globally are hard to describe, cost, price, and allow teams to collaboratively develop and iterate) BIW = Business Insight Workbench (unstructured text analytics, data mining, structured analytics, automatic taxonomy, trend analysis, co-occurrence statistics, etc.) COBRA = Corporate Brand Reputation Analysis (data mine blogs and customer service data, etc. for insights) SIMPLE = Patent Analytics (data mine patents and technical publications, etc. for insights) IoFT = Impact of Future Technologies (future studies method to identify signposts, and data mine for trends, etc.)
  • For example, we are all part of at least ten regional systems levels from our household to the world… Which level is most important for resiliency? Arguably the city… the level of population is enough to support “the knowledge burden of advanced technology” required for a high-quality of life
  • Our world can be thought of as a nested system of systems…. Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matryoshka_doll http://blog.teacollection.com/history-of-nesting-dolls http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_traditional_dolls “ Japanese wooden dolls were made to look like the Seven Lucky Gods from Japanese mythology.  The outer most doll was Fukurokuju the Japanese god of happiness and longevity.  He had an abnormally long forehead “
  • In today’s talk we will be thinking together about the future…. What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities… I show this for two reasons: - I believe computers will soon be helping policymakers and others explore future possibilities better - I want us to be thinking about resiliency of our systems in the future, and what are the weakest links in creating resilient cities and universities… what do we do if the computers go down, when we depend more and more on technology for a high quality of life? Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/cartoon-what-is-the-meaning-of-life
  • Future of innovation 20120628 v2

    1. 1. IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward) The Future of Innovation: Convergence & City-University Nodes IBM Centennial Icon of Progress Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & TechnologyDr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.comInnovation Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)Grassroots Innovation Program (hosted at EMC2)Santa Clara, CA USA, Thursday June 28, 2012 © 2012 IBM Corporation
    2. 2. Today’s Talk: The Future of Innovation Technologies: Convergence & Universal Machines – Ten years ago: NSF Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno(Social) 1.0 – This week: NSF NBIC(S) 2.0 = “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh” – Universal Machines – Info-Nano-Bio-Cogno-Social Rules: City-University Nodes & Learning Machines – Smarter Planet = Smarter Cities & Smarter Universities – Infrastructure, Individuals, Institutions, Information – Service Science studies Holistic Product-Service Systems What’s important? Your story, your life story – Quality-of-Life = QoS + QoJ + QoO • Richard Florida’s “Who’s Your City” ~SJO – {Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience} – Human capabilities (T-shaped adaptive people)2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    3. 3. NBIC(S)2.0 Social http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf3 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    4. 4. Why Social? Look What’s New… Smarter Planet Watson Jeopardy! Cloud Computing, Analytics Service Science Social Business CyberSecurity… IBM title Google & Apple Microsoft WordPress LinkedIn Twitter HP, Oracle, SAP, EMC, Facebook, Etc., etc.4 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    5. 5. Accelerating Change 200450 years: Information technology connecting islands ofinformation (created by people) into larger networks3.00E+17 Growth rates for:2.50E+172.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second1.50E+17 transistors1.00E+17 Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,5.00E+16 fMRI regions scanned per second0.00E+00 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999About 10 billion transistors made per second Info: Bytes storage made per secondin 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per secondICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)5 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    6. 6. Accelerating Change 2004200 year view: Service Dominant Logic Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004 Labor A G S delta S United States China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods: Value from making products U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21 Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38 Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway, driven by urbanization, Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30 global communications, Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth >50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.6 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    7. 7. Accelerating Change 2004 Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (the hypothesis) Human System Tool System Service provider helps The choice to the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices of it for them (incentives) (tool) (in a custom way) requires answering Z 1 2 four key questions: Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value) - Can we? (Technology) the client by doing all Delegate Automate of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance) (in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities) 3 4 Incent People Harness Nature (Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)Example: Call Centers Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate (1970) (1980) (2000) (2010) Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing by Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement” 7 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    8. 8. Accelerating Change 2004Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ  FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow” http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all …Detective story from a family with inferences are shallow” slurred speech to genes that influence  Relationship oriented computing tools brain development and enable speech Amazon – Recommendation system (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold and the Brain by Terrence W. Deacon Open Innovation The Cathedral & by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond8 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    9. 9. Accelerating Change 2004 WorldBoardCollaborate (continued) Connections by James Burke Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age by Duncan J. Watts Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson9 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    10. 10. Accelerating Change 2004Augment: TeleroboticsDoctor: United States Patient: FranceFirst transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us by Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote- presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)10 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    11. 11. Accelerating Change 2004 http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/ Delegate: Outsourcing 60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of IndiaMeasure freedom Measure money Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization by Amartya Sen by Thomas L. Friedman 1998 Nobel Prize Winner Economics 11 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    12. 12. Accelerating Change 2004Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography) BUILDING BONES. A rats skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated Printing Organs scaffold (right). F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich “This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham12 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    13. 13. Technologies: Convergence & Universal Machines  Info: Turing Machine  Nano & Meso: Self-Replicating Machine  Bio: CAD for Bacteria Machine  Cogno: Low-Energy Pattern Learning Machine13 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    14. 14. Info: Universal Machines (Done for Symbols)  Formalize Algorithm & Computation – Abstract “Automatic Machine” – Universal Turing Machine (symbol processor)  Four (Conceptually) Simple Parts – Tape (cells with symbol) – Head (moves to cell and read/write symbols) – Register of State – Table of Transitions Alan Turing (1912-1954) Mathematician & Computer Scientist  Three Simple Operations – Read & write a cell on a tape – Move the head to a new location on a tape – Change state of the machine Turing Machine14 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    15. 15. Nano & Meso: Self-Replicating Machines  Thought Experiment – 1947 & 1948 Lectures – 1955 Scientific American article – Just way too hard in the 1940’s & 1950’s – Settled for Cellular Automata John von Neumann (1903-1957) Mathematician & Computer Scientist  Today 3D Printers, Tomorrow Lunar Factories – RepRap, MakerBot, etc.. Self-Replicating Machines Artist conception, “self-growing” MakerBot robotic-lunar factory15 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    16. 16. Bio: Synthethic Biology (CAD Machines)  CAD for Bacteria  Bacteria are brilliant and old (3.5B years) Craig Venter Biologist & Entrepreneur16 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    17. 17. Cogno: SYNPASE (Low-Energy Machines)  Brains as 1 litre, 20W, Exascale super-computers  Brains as low-energy, pattern learning machines Dharmendra Moda Computer Scientist17 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    18. 18. What is Smarter Planet?3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions) INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT We now have the ability People, systems and We can respond to changes to measure, sense and objects can communicate quickly and accurately, see the exact condition and interact with each and get better results of practically everything. other in entirely new by predicting and optimizing PRODUCTS ways. IT NETWORKS COMMUNICATIONS for future events.WORKFORCE SUPPLY CHAIN TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS18 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    19. 19. What improves Quality-of-Life?Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations * = US Labor % in 2009. A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 20/10/10 1. Transportation & supply chain 2/7/4 2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment2/1/1 7/6/1 3. Food & products manufacturing 1/1/0 4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech 5/17/27 5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access) B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*) 1/0/2 6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 24/24/1 7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*) 2/20/24 7/10/3 (wealthy) (21%*) 8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting 5/2/2 9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*) 10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*) 3/3/1 C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 0/0/0 11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax) 1/2/2 12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax) 0/19/0 13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax) Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities “61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”19 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    20. 20. California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf20 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    21. 21. Universities key to regions Nation  Three Streams State/Province City/Metro – Transfer knowledge For-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer – Create knowledge Cultural & Conference University Hospital Medical College Hotels Research K-12 – Apply knowledge to co-create value Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household)  Nested Holistic Systems – Flows – Development Third Stream is about U-BEEs = – Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems21 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    22. 22. Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data) 9 Japan 8 7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534 R² = 0,719 China 6 Germany 5 France 4 United Kingdom Italy % G D o b P a g l 3 Russia Brazil Spain Canada 2 India Mexico South Korea Australia Turkey Netherlands 1 Sweden 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % top 500 universities22 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    23. 23. Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains World as System of Systems World (light blue - largest) Nations (green - large) States (dark blue - medium) Cities (yellow - small) Universities (red - smallest) Cities as System of Systems Developed Market -Transportation & Supply Chain Nations -Water & Waste Recycling (> $20K GDP/Capita) -Food & Products ((Nano) -Energy & Electricity -Information/ICT & Cloud (Info) -Buildings & Construction Emerging Market -Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment Nations -Banking & Finance (< $20K GDP/Capita) -Healthcare & Family (Bio) -Education & Professions (Cogno) -Government (City, State, Nation) Nations: Innovation Opportunities - GDP/Capita (level and growth rate) - Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)23 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    24. 24. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056Innovations NationUniversities/ “The future is already State/Province here (at universities),Regions City/RegionCalculus (Cambridge/UK) For-profits it is just not evenlyPhysics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEEComputer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/SustainerYahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital Cultural & UniversityGoogle (Stanford/CA) Medical Conference CollegeFacebook (Harvard/CA) Research Hotels K-12 “The best way to Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household) predict the future is to (inspire the next generation of students to) build it better.” U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City 24 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    25. 25. Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress (http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/) Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008) IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward) 1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions Service Service Service Stakeholder The white paper offers a starting point to - Innovation Systems Science Priorities Growth in service Customer-provider To discover the Education GDP and jobs interactions that underlying enable value principles of Skills Develop programmes Service quality cocreation complex service & Mindset & qualifications & productivity systems Dynamic Research Environmental configurations of Systematically Encourage an Knowledge friendly & resources: people, create, scale and interdisciplinary & Tools approach sustainable technologies, improve systems organisations and Urbanisation & information Foundations laid Business aging population by existing Employment Increasing scale, disciplines Develop and improve & Collaboration Globalisation & complexity and service innovation technology drivers connectedness of Progress in Government roadmaps, leading to a service systems academic studies doubling of investment Opportunities for and practical tools Policies in service education businesses, B2B, B2C, C2C, & Investment and research by 2015 governments and B2G, G2C, G2G Gaps in knowledge individuals service networks and skills Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate © 2012 IBM Corporation
    26. 26. What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s? Design/ Cognitive Science Systems Engineering “service science is “a service system is athe transdisciplinary study of human-made system to improve service systems & provider-customer interactions value-cocreation” and value-cocreation outcomes, by dynamically configuring resource Marketing access via value propositions, most often studied by many disciplines, one piece at a time.” The ABC’s: The provider (A) and a customer (B) transform a target (C) Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence Economics & Law Operations 26 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    27. 27. 27 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    28. 28. Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly China Broad Group: 30 Stories in 15 Days28 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    29. 29. Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service Ryan Chin: Urban Mobility29 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    30. 30. Self-driving cars Steve Mahan: Test “Driver”30 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    31. 31. Imagining quality-of-life innovations…31 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    32. 32. City challenge: buildings and transportation Ryan Chin: Smart Cities32 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    33. 33. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon Carlo Ratti: Senseable Cities33 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    34. 34. Four measures  Innovativeness  Equity  Sustainability  Resiliency34 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    35. 35. US National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges A. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need 1. Transportation & Supply Chain Restore and enhance urban infrastructure 2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech Provide access to clear water 3. Food & Products Manager nitrogen cycle 4. Energy & Electricity Make solar energy economical Provide energy from fusion Develop carbon sequestration methods 5. Information & Communication Technology Enhance virtual reality Secure cyberspace Reverse engineer the brain B. Systems that focus on human activity & development 6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces) Restore and enhance urban infrastructure 7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism) Enhance virtual reality 8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting 9. Healthcare & Family Life Advance health informatics Engineer better medicines Reverse engineer the brain 10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship Advance personalized learning Engineer the tools of scientific discovery C. Systems that focus on human governance 11. City & Security Restore and improve urban infrastructure Secure cyberspace Prevent nuclear terror 12. State/Region & Development 13. Nation & Rights35 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    36. 36. Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities Systems that govern transportation & ICT & retail & healthcare food & education city state nation disciplines supply chain water & energy products & electricity cloud building & hospitality banking & family &work secure scale laws waste construction & finance behavioral sciences Customerstakeholders e.g., marketing Provider management sciences e.g., operations Observe Stakeholders (As-Is) political sciences Authority e.g., public policy learning sciences Competitors e.g., game theory and strategy cognitive sciences People e.g., psychologyresources system sciences Technology e.g., industrial eng. information sciences Observe Resource Access (As-Is) Information e.g., computer sci organization sciences Organizations e.g., knowledge mgmt History social scienceschange e.g., econ & law (Data Analytics) decision sciences Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become) Future e.g., stats & design (Roadmap) run professions Run e.g., knowledge worker Transformvalue (Copy) transform professions e.g., consultant Realize Value (To-Be) Innovate innovate professions (Invent) e.g., entrepreneur 36 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    37. 37. T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth Many cultures Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) BREADTH Deep in one discipline Deep in one system Deep in one culture DEPTH (analytic thinking & problem solving)3737 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    38. 38. From Work Done By the Institute for the Future (IFTF.org) Transdisciplinary = T-Shaped People (Breadth & Depth)38 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    39. 39. Evolving regional talent & skills making long term investments to develop talent for the growth marketsGovernment Global Placements & Collaboration withPartnerships Mentoring Universities Transferring knowledge and IBM works with 5,000 universitiesBy helping governments to and 10,000 faculties around theestablish new national expertise to the growth markets is critical. One of the ways we do this globe. We have joint initiativesresearch facilities, we are and investments with universitieshelping to create new is to move experts into the market to in Vietnam, Malaysia, India,industries, helping to develop coach and train local teams. Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt,long terms skills curriculums China and Africa to encouragelike SSME.+D the training of skills required. 39 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
    40. 40. A Framework for Global Civil Society  Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterdays 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society. – John Sexton, President NYU40 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    41. 41. Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA Upcoming Conferences – July 2012 • ISSS San Jose • HSSE San Francisco More Information – Blog • www.service-science.info – Twitter • @JimSpohrer – Presentations • www.slideshare.net/spohrer – Email • spohrer@us.ibm.com 41 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    42. 42. IBM Centennial: Icon of Progress42 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    43. 43. IBM’s Leadership Changes IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide 2011 Financials 22% of IBM’s revenue  Revenue - $ 106.9B in Growth Market  Net Income - $ 15.9B countries; growing at 11% in 2011  EPS - $ 13.44  Net Cash - $16.6B More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office 55% of IBM’s WorkforceIBM operates in 170 is New to the company incountries around the globe the last 5 years Number 1 in patent generation for 19100 Years of Business consecutive years ;& Innovation in 2011 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011 The Smartest Machine On Earth 9 time winner of the 5 Nobel President’s National Laureates Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest “Let’s Build a Smarter award for Blue Gene Planet" Supercomputer 43 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    44. 44. “Back-up” Tokyo  Resort  Tourism  Business  Backup City44 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    45. 45. Technology has a cost  “The burden of knowledge” Cesar Hidalgo: Societal Knowledge45 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    46. 46. The limits of our individual knowledge46 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    47. 47. Societal and individual knowledge Herbert Simon: Ben Jones: Bounded Rationality Burden of Knowledge47 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    48. 48. Specialization has benefits Adam Smith: David Ricardo: Division of Labor Comparative Advantage48 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    49. 49. Recombination (integration) has benefits Joseph Schumpeter: Brian Arthur: Creative Destruction Nature of Technology49 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    50. 50. building smarter systems isnt simply a proposal or theory, but a practical reality, with clear steps, quantifiable benefits and best practices - Sam Palmisano Where are the opportunities? Every city and region!50 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    51. 51. What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills? …But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M51 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    52. 52. ~30 years of skill transformations: depth & breadth 15 10 Expert Thinking 5 Complex Communication 0 Routine Manual Non-routine Manual -5 Routine Cognitive -10 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.52 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    53. 53. Thank-You! Questions? “Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM “If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org “Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU “Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli “The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson “The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay “Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer “Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells “The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov “Think global, act local.” – GeddesDr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion &Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) WWspohrer@us.ibm.com 53 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    54. 54. 14B Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate? 10KBig Bang In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds… Cities (Natural Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… (Human-Made Time World) To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS) World) writing (symbols and scribes, stored memory and knowledge) written laws ECOLOGY (governance and stored control) sun (energy) money earth (governed (molecules & transportable valuestored energy) stored value, “economic energy”) bacteria(single-cell life) bees (social sponges transistor division-of-labor)(multi-cell life) (routine cognitive work) universities (knowledge workersclams (neurons) printing press (books 54 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporationtrilobites (brains) 200M 60 steam engine (work)
    55. 55. Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization) Criminals Government Agents Users Agencies Insurance Competitors Intermediaries Consultants Customers Web Communities Managers Third PartiesShareholders Engineers Banks eBusinesses Suppliers Contractors Employees PEOPLE ORGANIZATIONS Needs Experience Aspirations AS-IS OUTCOME Learning Benefits Wants Target & Relationships Context SERVICE Target & Context Gaps Side Effects Goals Constraints TO-BE (Value-Cocreation) IF-REDONE Sacrifices Target & Disputes Target & Responsibilities Context Context Unintended Consequences Expectations TECHNOLOGY/ SHARED Insights ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION Procedures Regulations Policies Hardware Buildings Vehicles Flowcharts Plans Applications Diagrams / Schematics Equipment Instructions Rules 55 Tools Templates Infrastructure Software Schedules
    56. 56. Up-Skill = New Venture = Graduates with Smarter Planet skills = High-GrowthCycle = Acquisition = IBMer moving from Acquisition/ New IBM BU mature BU to acquisition (Growing) = IBMer moving into IBMer on Campus role (help create graduates = High-Productivity/University-Region1 with Smarter-Planet skills, Mature IBM BU help create Smarter Planet oriented new ventures; (Shrinking) Refresh skillsUniversity-Region2 IBM56 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    57. 57. ~250 years of infrastructure transformations Installation Crash Deployment Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity • Formation of Mfg. industry 1 The Industrial 1771 Panic • Repeal of Corn Laws 1829 Revolution 1797 opening trade • Standards on gauge, time Age of Steam Panic 2 and Railways 1829 1847 • Catalog sales companies 1873 • Economies of scale Age of Steel, Depressio • Urban development 3 Electricity 1875 n • Support for interventionism 1920 1893 and Heavy Engineering • Build-out of Interstate Age of Oil, Crash 4 Automobiles 1908 1929 highways 1974 • IMF, World Bank, BIS and Mass Production Coming period of Age of Information Credit Crisis 5 and 1971 2008 Institutional Adjustment and Production Capital Telecommunications Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).57 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    58. 58. ~100 years of US job transformations Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis58 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    59. 59. We need better frameworks, theories, and models of… Four I’s Cultural Information – Infrastructure (Quality-of-Life Measures) – Individuals – Institutions – Information Individuals Institutions Four Measures (Skills) (Rules, Jobs) – Innovativeness – Equity – Sustainability Societal Infrastructure – Resiliency (Technologies & Environment)59 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    60. 60. Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge Learning To Apply Knowledge Do It Invent It Exploitation Exploration Run Transform Innovate Operations L Internal Incremental Maintenance Copy It External Radical Insurance Interaction Super-Radical March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87. Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.60 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    61. 61. Service Science: Conceptual Framework Ecology (Populations & Diversity) Entities Interactions Outcomes (Service Systems, both (Service Networks, (Value Changes, bothIndividuals & Institutions) link, nest, merge, divide) beneficial and non-beneficial) Identity Value Proposition Governance Mechanism Reputation (Aspirations & Lifecycle/ (Offers & Reconfigurations/ (Rules & Constraints/ (Opportunities & Variety/ History) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) History) Access Rights Measures (Relationships of Entities) (Rankings of Entities) lose-win win-win prefer sustainable lose-lose win-lose non-zero-sum Resources Stakeholders outcomes, (Competences, Roles in Processes, (Processes of Valuing, i.e., win-win Specialized, Integrated/Holistic) Perspectives, Engagement)  Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information  Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information  Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors  Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation  Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Luschs concept of generic actors in markets, or “Its all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201. 61 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    62. 62. Our Past, Present, Future:Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION Any Device Learning Primary School In div idu Secondary al s PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS School Le ar Workforce Student-Centered Processes Higher nin Skills g Education Co nt Continuing inu KNOWLEDGE SKILLS Education um The Learning Communities Educational Intelligent Continuum • Aligned Data u m GLOBAL INTEGRATION • Outcomes Insight t inu n Services Specialization Instrumented Co Economic in g Sustainability • Student-centric rn • Integrated Assessment L ea ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT Interconnected io ns • Shared Services t ut ti ns Systemic View of Education • Interoperable Processes I http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html 62 62 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    63. 63. 63 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
    64. 64. Analytics is enabling clients with trustedand relevant information in REAL TIME • For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a smarter outcome for organizations • The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize clients’ business • Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010 Through to 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to exploit ‘big data’ for competitive advantage --Gartner Predictions 201264 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
    65. 65. Developing capabilities that improve visibility, control and automation of cloud computing services IBMSmartCloud Business Process as a Service Software as a Service Platform as a Service Infrastructure as a Service IBMSmartCloud IBMSmartCloud IBMSmartCloud Foundation Services Solutions Private & Hybrid Clouds Managed Cloud Services Cloud Business Solutions Cloud Enablement technologies Infra & platform as a Service Software & Business Process as a Service Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems65 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
    66. 66. 66 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
    67. 67. Central Greater Australia Eastern China India Latin Middle EastNew Zealand ASEAN Europe Group South Asia Korea America Africa Brisbane Seoul Buenos Aires Sydney Bandar Seri Begawan Sofia Chandigarh Beijing Daejeon Daegu Cordoba Auckland Jakarta Zagreb Luanda Hong Kong Dehradun Kwangju Rosario Perth Surabaya Prague Qatar Taipei Delhi Pusan Rio de Janeiro Adelaide Medan Brno Alexandria Hefei Gurgaon Salvador Hobart Makassar Ostrava Cairo Xiamen Noida Fortalez Ballarat Manila Tallinn Accra Chongqing Jaipur Belo Horizonte Melbourne Cebu Budapest Nairobi Shanghai Lucknow Uberlandia Wellington Chiangmai Almaty Casablanca Beijing Guwahati Recife Christchurch Bangkok Riga Port Louis Tianjin Ahmedabad Curitiba Lower Hutt Pattaya Vilnius Lagos Fuzhou Indore Porto Alegre DaNang Warsaw Karachi Guangzhou Mumbai Campinas Ho Chi Minh City Wroclaw Islamabad Shenzhen Kolkata Joinville Krakow Lahore Nanjing Pune Anto fogasta Gdansk Riyadh Harbin Bhubaneshwar Medellin Katowice Dakar Shijiazhuang Hyderabad Cali Poznan Johannesburg Wuhan Vizag Guayaquil Bucharest Pretoria Zhengzou Bangalore Guadalajara Timisoara Durban Changsha Chennai Monterrey Ufa Cape Town Changchun Coimbatore Queretaro Kazan Port Elizabeth Nanning Kochi Lima Rostov-on-Don Bloemfontein Suzhou Nasik Samara Dar es Salaam Nanchang Colombo Perm Tunis Shenyang Dakkar Novosibirrsk Abu Dhabi Established Krasnoyarsk Moscow Dalian Taiyuah Dubai Ouangadougou presence in St Petersburg Ekaterinburg Qingdao Jinan N’Djamena Kinshasa many Belgrade Bratislava Xi’an Chengdu Libreville Accra Growth Banska Bystrica Kosice Urumchi Kunming Lilongwe Antananarivo Market Ljubljana Ankara Hangzhou Ningbo Niamey Seychelles countries... Istanbul Izmire Freetown Kampala Dnepropetrovsk Lusaka Kiev Tashkent 67 IBM GMU External Relations 201267
    68. 68. Accelerating Change 2004Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & FutureHow much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?  - 100,000 Generations: Speech New Species (Kind of Agent) New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language)  - 500 : Writing New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes)  - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations)  - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization)  - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses) New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones)  -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)  +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?) New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive)  +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?) New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences) New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure) New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system) New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge)  +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?) New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects) Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright68 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    69. 69. Accelerating Change 2004The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?From the search for food to the search for information Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983) Source: Pirolli (2002) Energy Information Max [ Energy Time ] Max [ Useful info Time ]69 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    70. 70. Accelerating Change 2004Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric  Knowledge in our minds is soft capability  Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability  Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability  However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system  Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal given the cognitive capabilities of the system.  How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals?  How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making, and execution performance? Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence by Andy Clark “…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)70 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation