Csig short 20150723 v4

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Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) - by 2035 we may be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants boosting creativity and productivity of people

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  • In this talk, the Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) is introduced – you can join weekly calls and weekly discussion if you find this of interest to you.

    ISSIP.org has weekly CSIG COI (Community of Interest) calls with the goal of improving the development of cognitive assistants for all occupations.

    Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) Join Calls: http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/ Join Discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=6729452
    Reference:
    Spohrer, J (2015) Welcome to IBM Research - Almaden. San Jose, CA USA. , Thursday July 23, 2015.
    URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csig-short-20150723-v4
  • Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena?

    Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales.

    Picture of star formation
    https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
  • Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena?

    Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world.

    Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots.

    Picture of physics and the brain...
    http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
  • Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine.

    However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
  • The first hint to who are you going to call in 2035 and 2055 is provided by this chart. Yes, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of chapr computing…. 2035 one brain, and by 2055 all human brains (10 billion people).

    Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000.

    Source:
    http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

    Was Moore’s Law inevitable?
    http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/

  • The second hint – check out how many companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant.

    Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic!

    Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years
    Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants
    Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure

    Source:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
  • However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds…

    The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology.

    The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science.

    Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in.

    Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
  • Csig short 20150723 v4

    1. 1. Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) Join Weekly Calls: http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/ Join Weekly Discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=6729452 Jim Spohrer, IBM Director, Global University Programs (GUP) and Cognitive Systems Institute Group (CSIG) CSIG Overview, Thursday July 23, 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/csig-short-20150723-v4 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM UPward - University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 1
    2. 2. 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 2 Explain external phenomena
    3. 3. 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 3 Explain internal phenomena
    4. 4. 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 4 Explain Socio-Technical Phenomena
    5. 5. When you need help, who are you going to call? 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 5 1955 (Newburgh, Maine) (1965) 1975 (1985) 1995 2015 2035? 2055?
    6. 6. Hint 1: What might $1000 buy? 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6 2035 2055
    7. 7. Hint 2: What exists in 2015? 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 7 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
    8. 8. 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 8 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Sciences – External World (natural systems) Cognitive Sciences – Internal World (cognitive systems) Service Science – Socio-Technical (service systems)
    9. 9. Helping individuals and organizations close their service innovation skills gap to create smarter service systems that empower customers and citizens in the collaborative service economy
    10. 10. 7/23/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10

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