Parsons & Red Cross Pablo

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  • Parsons & Red Cross Pablo

    1. 1. Your design skills can save lives: Can Parsons and the Red Cross help each other? Pablo Suarez, Ph.D. Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre & Boston University Nov 3, 2009 Parsons School of Design
    2. 2. Evidence of change: Andean glacier (Yanamarey, Perú) 1987 1997 2005 1987
    3. 3. Unusual climate anomalies and events (2005)
    4. 4. Remarkable progress (collect, store, process, disseminate) Need to adapt What about marginal communities? Challenges of New Climatic Predictions A. Patt, with data from IRI
    5. 5. Mme. Khin Cho Cho Shein vs Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar)
    6. 6. Reaching out: "Parachuting in" with new info? Photo: A. Patt
    7. 7. Climate change: the basics <ul><li>Greenhouse effect </li></ul><ul><li>Global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Sea Level rise </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in winds & currents </li></ul><ul><li>More extreme events </li></ul><ul><li>“ Synergies” with other problems </li></ul><ul><li>Linkages across sectors </li></ul>
    8. 9. Apocalypsis? Climate Change is a Humanitarian Problem
    9. 10. How will the Red Cross be affected? More work More, stronger, new disasters More poverty & injustice Solutions may become problems <ul><li>More funding available </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GEF, EU (& eventually US) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on community level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on NGOs </li></ul></ul>
    10. 11. Options <ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Avoiding changes in atmosphere so the climate doesn’t get worse. (CC causes - atmospheric chemistry) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adaptation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Getting ready for a climate that will continue to get worse. (CC consequences - climate risks) </li></ul></ul>
    11. 12. Participatory Workshops for Adaptation Intro: “learn & share” Flood impacts? What during flood? Causes? Info: predictability What can be done differently? Exposure Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity  
    12. 13. Community-level preparedness for a changing climate Planning access to flood shelters in Bangladesh
    13. 14. Community-level preparedness for a changing climate Water transport in southern Africa
    14. 16. Pablo’s flights - sample 12 months <ul><li>Apr 29, 2008 Boston – Washington IAD </li></ul><ul><li>Apr 30 Washington IAD – Boston </li></ul><ul><li>May 1 Boston – Louisville KY </li></ul><ul><li>May 4 Louisville KY – Boston </li></ul><ul><li>Jun 1 Boston – Miami </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Miami – Panama </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Jun 4 Panama – Miami </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Miami – Buenos Aires </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Jun 13 Buenos Aires – Dallas </li></ul><ul><li>Jun 14 Dallas – Washington IAD </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Washington IAD – Rome </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jun 15 Rome – Addis Ababa </li></ul><ul><li>Jun 23 Addis Ababa – Entebbe </li></ul><ul><li>Jun 25 Entebbe - Addis Ababa </li></ul><ul><li>Jun 27 Addis Ababa – Lilongwe </li></ul><ul><li>Jul 5 Lilongwe - Addis Ababa </li></ul><ul><li>Addis Ababa – Rome </li></ul><ul><li>Jul 6 Rome – Washington IAD </li></ul><ul><li>Washington IAD – Boston </li></ul><ul><li>Jul 16 Boston – Washington IAD </li></ul><ul><li>Jul 18 Washington BWI – NY LGA </li></ul><ul><li>New York LGA – Boston </li></ul><ul><li>Jul 22 Boston – IAD </li></ul><ul><li>IAD – Boston </li></ul><ul><li>Sep 9 Boston – Miami </li></ul><ul><li>Miami – San Salvador </li></ul><ul><li>Sep 15 San Salvador – Miami </li></ul><ul><li>Miami – New York JFK </li></ul><ul><li>Sep 26 Boston – Dallas </li></ul><ul><li>Dallas - Tokyo NRT </li></ul>Sep 28 Tokyo HND – Hiroshima Oct 4 Hiroshima – Tokyo HND Tokyo NRT – LosAngeles LosAngeles – Boston Oct 6 Boston – London LHR Oct 7 London LHR – Nairobi Nairobi – Mombasa Oct 11 Mombasa – Nairobi Nairobi – Dakar Oct 15 Dakar – Paris CDG Oct 16 Paris CDG – London City Oct 19 London LHR – Paris CDG Paris CDG – Johannesburg Oct 22 Johannesburg – Amsterdam Oct 23 Amsterdam – Vienna Oct 27 Vienna – Zurich Zurich – Delhi Nov 4 Delhi – London LHR London LHR – Boston Nov 11 New York JFK – Miami Miami – Mexico Nov 14 San Luis Potos í – Mexico Mexico – Dallas Dallas – Boston Nov 30 Boston – London LHR Dec 1 London LHR – Warsaw Dec 9 Poznan – Warsaw Warsaw – London LHR London– New York JF New York – Buenos Aires Dec 22 BuenosAires - NewYork JFK Dec 23 New York JFK – Boston Feb 5, 2009 Boston – Washington DCA Feb 7 Washington IAD – Atlanta Atlanta – FortLauderdale Feb 11 FortLauderdale - Atlanta Feb 12 Atlanta – Boston Feb 20 Boston – London LHR Feb 21 London LHR – Amsterdam Feb 26 Amsterdam – Addis Ababa Mar 6 Addis Ababa – Bahir Dar Mar 8 Bahir Dar– Addis Ababa Mar 10 Addis Ababa - Amsterdam Mar 11 Amsterdam – Copenhagen Mar 13 Copenhagen-Vienna Mar 17 Vienna-Istambul Mar 25 Istambul – London LHR London LHR – Chicago Chicago - Boston Apr 2 Boston – Munich Apr 3 Munich – Cologne Apr 5 Cologne – Munich Munich – Boston Apr 11 Boston – Amsterdam Apr 17 Amsterdam - Boston Apr 18 Hartford – Cincinnati Cincinnati – Denver Apr 22 Denver – Atlanta Atlanta – Hartford H E L P ! ! ! ! ! ! !
    15. 17. Columbia U: Masters in Climate & Society
    16. 18. Internship example #1: Emergency appeal in West Africa
    17. 19. Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)
    18. 20. Movie time! ~10 Red Cross colleagues from East Africa
    19. 21. Internship example #2: Malawi farmers become filmmakers Movie time! 0.6% 11.9% 6. People living with HIV (15-49 years old) 70% 0.4% 8. Internet users (2005) 13 1,100 5. Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 births) 7 120 4. Child mortality (per 1,000 live births) 1% 36% 2. Adult illiteracy rate $41,890 $ 667 1. GDP per capita US MW MDG indicators
    20. 22. Our new ducks float during floods. Chickens used to drown and die
    21. 23. Communicating Climate Change in Argentina Advocacy through Urban Art
    22. 24. Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity: Disaster management explorations via games
    23. 25. Concrete Parsons-RedCross Collaboration Ideas <ul><li>Game to help convert early warning into early action </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tomorrow (Wed) 9am: Game Jam info session </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nov 23-25: workshop in Senegal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improving web-based forecast maproom </li></ul><ul><li>Mapping info about risk assessments (PIIM) </li></ul><ul><li>SMS-based disaster management in Uganda </li></ul><ul><li>Global reports on urbanization and climate: beyond print? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IFRC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN HABITAT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Traveling exhibit on gender & climate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Simple technological solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Awareness campaigns (Bali fan, etc) </li></ul>
    24. 26. Last slide: Things to remember <ul><li>1. The climate is changing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We know the change will continue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We have to prepare for a changing climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Red Cross needs help from folks like you </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. What to do? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internships Masters theses Major research projects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Class projects Doctoral dissertations Other? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3. What to expect? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No $$ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No predictability </li></ul></ul>4. More info? www.climatecentre.org Interested? Send a 1-page CV and 1-page letter of interest at [email_address]
    25. 27. Game Jam Info Session: Parsons to help the Red Cross turn information into decisions Nigel Snoad & Pablo Suarez Parsons School of Design Nov 4, 2009 <ul><li>From forecasts to disaster management: why games ? </li></ul><ul><li>Vision for Parsons-RedCross game collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Senegal, Nov 23-25 </li></ul><ul><li>Next steps </li></ul>
    26. 28. Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity: Disaster management explorations via games
    27. 29. The gap between forecasters and humanitarian workers Given what we know as of May 15 2008, we can say that, for the period June-August 2008 in the areas of West Africa highlighted in the map, the probability of seeing precipitation that would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to between 40% and 50% SCIENTISTS What is their job? Predictions (information) What matters? Predictable events (extreme rain, temp, etc) What timeline matters? Time between prediction and actual event What “chances” matter? Probability of event materializing RED CROSS STAFF Decisions (action) Avoidable losses (death, hunger, etc) Time needed to implement decisions Risk of losses so high as to deserve action
    28. 30. <ul><li>Scenario : a fax with this forecast arrives to the Red Cross office </li></ul><ul><li>“ For the period June 24-30, Southern and Central Senegal are likely to receive above normal rains. The probability of seeing precipitation that would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to above 50%.” </li></ul>Group exercise (last July, Senegal) <ul><li>Task : What risk management decisions could this forecast trigger? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a) How much time is needed from decision to action? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>b) Is the threat serious enough to trigger this action? Yes or no? What does it depend on? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>c) What if the forecast doesn’t materialize? </li></ul></ul>
    29. 31. Community workshop to design flood contingency plan Activation of community early warning procedures Preparation of shelters/camps Refreshment training of Red Cross volunteers (search & rescue, first aid, etc) Evacuation of people at risk Pre-disaster assessment of capacity to respond to imminent crisis Activation and implementation of existing contingency plan In-country procurement of relief supplies to replenish minimum stocks Procurement of relief supplies from abroad to respond to catastrophic event Pre-positioning of relief supplies, logistics and human resource assets Communications (both telecommunications and media) Other? Examples of disaster management options
    30. 32. <ul><li>Your design skills can save lives: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Can Parsons help climate scientists help the Red Cross? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pablo Suarez, Ph.D. </li></ul><ul><li>Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre </li></ul><ul><li>& Boston University </li></ul>A. Patt, with data from IRI
    31. 33. Columbia U: Masters in Climate & Society
    32. 34. Sample forecasting maps from scientists
    33. 35. Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)
    34. 36. Movie time! ~10 Red Cross colleagues from East Africa
    35. 37. Existing web-based tool that we can work on

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