Mobile Trends - June 2011 - Trending The Future

TRENDING THE FUTURE
Mobile Trends - June 2011

www.space150.com

Monday, June 27, 2011

MOBILE IS GROWING Mobile Internet
(Post-PC)
FASTER THAN ANY
TECHNOLOGY Desktop

10B+
Internet
BEFORE.
PC 1B+
100MM+

Microcomputer

10MM+

Mainframe

1MM+

Units/
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Users

Source: KPCB - http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-top-10-mobile-trends-feb-2011


This speed of growth can be overwhelming,
but there is one thing we can keep up with.


Ourselves


We were born to move around.


Mobile is freeing humanity from the ball and chain that is the PC.


“We no longer need to be tethered to a desktop
computer in order to use the Internet to interact
with the world around us.”
-Hamilton Chan, CEO & Founder, Paperlinks

Source: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/03/08/mainstream-qr-codes/

31% OF AMERICANS
CURRENTLY OWN A
SMARTPHONE. WE
HAVE CROSSED
THE CHASM OF
ADOPTION.

2.5%
Innovators

13.5% 34% 34% 16%
Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

Source: Nielsen - http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/factsheet-the-u-s-media-universe/


Q4

2011The Mobile Inﬂection Point

Source: Ars Technica - http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-top-10-mobile-trends-feb-2011


By the end of 2011, more Americans will have
smartphones than feature phones.
Source: Nielsen - http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/smartphones-to-overtake-feature-phones-in-u-s-by-2011/


TODAY:

3.6 BILLION
People around the world have a mobile phone

TODAY: BY CHRISTMAS 2011:

91%
Of Americans use a mobile phone
50%
Of Americans will have a smartphone

Source: Ars Technica - http://arstechnica.com/telecom/news/2010/03/wireless-survey-91-of-americans-have-cell-phones.ars


2014
Mobile will become the most common
way of accessing the Internet.

Source: KPCB - http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-top-10-mobile-trends-feb-2011


"The fact of the matter is that mobile devices
are going to be the majority of the way that
people get information."
-Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Google, March 2009

Source: BBC UK - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7938799.stm


WELCOME TO
THE POST-PC ERA


POST-PC
The name “Post-PC” implies that we will all show up to work one day, overturn our desks in
celebration, and go on with our days squinting at tiny smartphone screens and fumbling with
our thumbs. This is simply not the future. At least not anytime soon.


PCs ARE IMPORTANT
FOR GETTING WORK
DONE. WE STILL
NEED THEM.


MOBILE DEVICES WILL NOT REPLACE PCs,
BUT THEY WILL EXPONENTIALLY EXPAND
THE REACH OF TECHNOLOGY INTO OUR
PHYSICAL WORLD WITH NEWFOUND
UTILITY AND MEANING.


Three behavioral trends of mobile experience:

1. convenience
2. context
3. fun


1. convenience
noun
• a thing that contributes to an easy and effortless way of life: voice mail
was seen as one of the desktop conveniences of the electronic office.


Less is more.


“The iPad [mobile] only does less than
a regular computer to us geeks. To
everyone else, it does more.”
-J-P Teti, 14-year-old blogger

Source: http://jpteti.com/post/4072771125/the-ipad-is-99-more-open-than-any-other-computer

“The best
camera is the
one you have
with you.”
-Chase Jarvis

Source: http://blog.chasejarvis.com/blog/2009/09/the-best-camera-iphone-app-book-community/

The iPhone is now the most popular camera on Flickr.

Source: The New York Times - http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/18/iphone-4-becoming-most-popular-camera-on-ﬂickr/

QR CODES LINK LIFE
TO THE INTERNET


Instead of holding up an album cover to plug the band on his show, Jimmy
Fallon used a QR code to link viewers to Odd Future’s website.

Source: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/02/18/jimmy-fallon-qr-code/

New York City is using QR codes on all their building permits.

Source: http://mashable.com/2011/02/22/nyc-building-permits-qr-codes/

QR CODES HAVE GONE
MAINSTREAM, BUT
WILL SOON FADE.


The ﬁrst signs: Google
Google has ended support for QR codes in Google Places.

Source: Quora - http://www.quora.com/Why-did-Google-places-drop-QR-codes-for-NFC-tags

The ﬁrst signs: Apple
Apple is completely disinterested.


A behavioral bridge
QR codes reinforce awareness of our ability to enhance our physical experience with digital
interaction. QR codes are a catalyst for the behavior of using our phones to scan, touch, and
tag things. They’re allowing people to get used to the idea, but there’s something bigger
coming right around the corner...


SO, WHAT’S NEXT?


NFC
[Near Field Communication]

A short-range wireless standard that allows devices to
communicate securely and perform transactions.


Ofﬁces have been using
it for years...


NFC technology has been used for public transportation payment in London’s
Oyster since it was introduced in 2003.

Source: Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyster_card

Audi and other car makers have been making keys with NFC for a few years
now. Leave the keys in your pocket. Just walk up and open the door.


BMW is developing an NFC key system to not only work with their cars but
navigation, hotels, transportation, and more.

Source: Engadget - http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/02/bmws-nfc-key-is-your-ticket-to-ride-and-you-should-care-video/

Released in December, the Google Nexus S is the USA’s ﬁrst
NFC-capable smartphone.

Source: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/02/22/nyc-building-permits-qr-codes/

“We’re making a huge
bet on NFC as a
company. There is a
lot of potential there.”
-Erick Schonfeld, VP of Google Commerce and Payments

Source: Tech Crunch - http://techcrunch.com/2011/05/25/google-commerce-chief-were-making-a-huge-bet-on-nfc-as-a-company/

NFC IS AT A REALLY
EARLY STAGE, BUT
THE POSSIBILITIES
ARE ENDLESS.


PHONE
WALLET
KEYS
Two are going away.
Pick one.


PayPal is experiencing exponential growth in mobile payments, growing from
$24MM in 2008 to over $2B this year, with $7.5B expected in 2013.

Source: Niche Retail - http://nicheretail.com/2011/03/paypal-mobile-transactions-exceed-6m-per-day-ctia-keynote/

Startups like TabbedOut are closing major funding rounds, solving unique
payment problems like unpaid bar tabs, and expanding rapidly.

Sources: TabbedOut - http://www.tabbedout.com/articles/33 Statesman - http://www.statesman.com/business/tabbedout-signs-deal-to-expand-its-mobile-payments-1463076.html

More than 3 million people have paid using the Starbucks Card Mobile
application, making Starbucks the nation’s largest mobile payment network.
Present in 6,800 Starbucks and 1,000 Target locations.

Source: PSFK - http://www.psfk.com/2011/03/coffee-drinkers-go-mobile-at-starbucks.html
http://thenextweb.com/google/2011/03/28/google-to-introduce-new-nfc-payment-system-partners-with-mastercard-and-citigroup/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheNextWeb+%28The+Next+Web+All+Stories


Target recently upgraded all their in-store scanners to be mobile screen-ready,
launched a mobile gift cards program, and could jump on payment at any time.

Source: Mobile Commerce Daily - http://www.mobilecommercedaily.com/2010/03/11/target-debuts-ﬁrst-nationwide-mobile-bar-code-coupon-program

Square - now backed by Visa and promoted in the Apple store -processed
$66MM in mobile payments during Q1, and is expecting to triple that number
in Q2 while growing at a rate of 100,000 merchants per month and now
doing over $3MM per day in transactions.

Sources: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/04/29/square-payments/ Tech Crunch - http://techcrunch.com/2011/05/21/square-3-million-day/
Gigam - http://gigaom.com/2011/02/22/square-drops-transaction-fee-as-payment-battle-heats-up/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OmMalik+%28GigaOM%3A+Tech%29

Card Case
A new addition for Square, Card Case is a mobile wallet system for
the iPhone that enables card-less payments between square
accounts that are facilitated via a personal tab with a merchant. All
the customer has to do is say their name and the cashier can look it
up. Receipts are sent via text or email and are completely paperless.


GOOGLE WALLET
Dropping hammers on the nail of
mobile payment inevitability.

Mastercard, Citi, and Spring have
all partnered with Google to make
simple mobile payments a
mainstream reality.

Using the NFC capabilities of the
Nexus S smartphone, Google
Wallet will enable “tap and save”
mobile payments at over 300,000
Mastercard PayPass merchants
nationwide. Google has also
extended an open invitation to
other technology and ﬁnancial
partners to expand the system.

“This is the only the beginning.”
said Google at the launch event.

Source: http://www.dailydealmedia.com/419livingsocial-launches-instant-deals-in-washington-d-c/

THE BATTLE WILL
COME DOWN TO A
FEW BIG PLAYERS.


SO FAR, GOOGLE
(MASTERCARD) AND
SQUARE (VISA) ARE
OWNING THE RING.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

1. convenience
TRANSFORM CULTURE
AND BUSINESS


1. convenience
HELP PEOPLE GET
THINGS DONE EASIER


1. convenience
OFFER TANGIBLE
VALUE


2. context
noun
• the circumstances that form the setting for an event, place, or situation:
the context in which you curse will determine the offensiveness of your
language.


Relevant information when you need it.


“The mobile phone acts as a
cursor to connect the digital
and physical...”
-Marissa Mayer, Head of Mobile & Geolocation, Google

Source: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/03/11/mayer-sxsw-talk/

20%
Of all Google searches are for local information

40%
Of all Google Maps usage is on mobile devices and is
expected to rise beyond 50% by July 2011.

$250,000
Of fuel savings are created each year thanks to Google’s new
route-around-trafﬁc feature

Source: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/03/11/mayer-sxsw-talk/ Tech Crunch - http://techcrunch.com/2011/05/25/google-maps-for-mobile-stats/

LOCATION SERVICES
ARE CONTINUING TO
GROW


Foursquare Version 3.0
Released at SXSW with new features including
special types of offers and a new recommendation
engine that suggests places to go based on places
you’ve been, places your friends go, and what’s
popular in your area.

Source: The New York Times - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/business/29drill.html?_r=1

3,400%
Growth in Foursquare users during 2010

60%
Of those checking in are between 18 and 23 years old

Sources: Mashable - http://mashable.com/2011/03/08/foursquare-3/ PSFK - http://www.psfk.com/2011/03/foursquares-check-in-rankings-defy-expectations.html

THE CURRENT
NUMBERS ARE SMALL,
BUT THE GROWTH IS
BIG. THE QUESTION IS:
HOW DO WE MONETIZE
THE GROWTH?
Source: PSFK - http://www.psfk.com/2011/03/foursquares-check-in-rankings-defy-expectations.html

SHOW PEOPLE THE
TIME OF THEIR LIFE.


HOWEVER, VERY
FEW BRANDS ARE
THINKING THIS WAY.


PEPSI MAX +
FOURSQUARE
During SXSW this year, Pepsi Max
and Foursquare led people through
a series of check-ins in order to
acquire a badge and free tickets to
an exclusive Big Boi concert. In
exchange for their participation,
people were treated to a special
concert that no one else got to see.

The campaign got users to engage
in ﬁve check-ins before getting a
ticket leading to extremely
measurable engagement in
addition to all the tweets and
photos that were uploaded relevant
to the Pepsi Max, Foursquare, and
Big Boi brands.

Source: http://thenextweb.com/apps/
2011/03/09/sxsw-follow-big-boi-on-
foursquare-to-win-the-golden-ticket/


Underground raves have been regaining popularity--leaked via anonymous
prepaid mobile texts. Could this be an opportunity for private location services?

Source: The Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/nov/07/underground-rave-culture-recession-facebook YouTube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZIuVq57qcs

WILL WE SEE
“PRIVATE” OR GROUP
LOCATION SERVICES?


HOW CAN WE MORE
CLOSELY CONNECT
PEOPLE TO WHAT’S
HAPPENING AROUND
THEM?

2. context
CURATE THE MOST
RELEVANT LOCAL
KNOWLEDGE


2. context
HELP PEOPLE FIND
INFORMATION THAT’S
USEFUL IN REAL TIME


3. fun
noun
• enjoyment, amusement, or lighthearted pleasure: anyone who turns up
can join in the fun.


Mobile is making life more fun.


One of the most important technology trends
over the next 3-5 years will be the effort to
embed the dynamics of networked gaming
into everyday life.”
- Edward Castranova, Economist


McDonald’s Pick ‘n Play uses a mobile web URL and HTML to allow passerby to
control a game of “Pong” on an interactive billboard to win coupons.


Epic Win helps you “level up” your life with a to-do app that turns getting
organized into a game where you win by completing tasks on your list.


Epic Mix at Vail Resorts allows skiers to share their adventures with friends and
earn points and badges that encourage them to progress and ride new terrain.


For seven days, the Mini Getaway
Stockholm took players through a
timed game of location tag for a
chance to win a Mini Countryman.
Players battled for possession of
a virtual Mini displayed on a map
in the app. Get within 50 meters
of the player with the Mini, and
gain possession. Like musical
chairs, the last person with the
virtual Mini won the real car.

11,000 people participated, with
5 hours, 6 minutes of average
participation time.

Source: Mashable - http://mashable.com/
2011/03/11/mayer-sxsw-talk/


Chromaroma, a travel game for London’s Oyster card system, lets you compete
against friends for points as you travel, making public transit more fun.

Sources: Chromaroma - http://www.chromaroma.com/ The Guardian - http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/pda/2010/nov/30/chromaroma-oyster-transport-gaming

Apple is pushing hard with the iPad to transform the way students learn.
What are these kids going to be doing 20 years from now?

Source: Apple - http://www.apple.com/ipad

WITH MOBILE, FUN IN
UNEXPECTED PLACES
WILL EXPAND IN
IMAGINATIVE AND
MEANINGFUL WAYS.

3. fun
MORE FREQUENTLY
INTEGRATED INTO OUR
LIVES


3. fun
THE EASIEST WAY TO
CHANGE PEOPLE’S
BEHAVIORS


1. convenience
Less is more. Transform business and culture with simple solutions.

2. context
Like a good friend, be there with just the right thing when you’re needed most.

3. fun
Mix in delight, surprise, and reward to build and retain relationships.


Thank You


Nicole Newville Jake Szymanski
VP Brand & Media Planning Associate Brand Planner
@nicolenewville @jakeszy

nicole.newvillw@space150.com jake.szymanski@space150.com

www.space150.com


Mobile Trends - June 2011 - Trending The Future

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