Agricultural technology potential and the role of irrigation

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Agricultural Technology Potential and the Role of Irrigation, by Dr. Hua Xie and Dr. Claudia Ringler, IFPRI --The Feed the Future Zone in the South and the Rest of Bangladesh:
A Comparison of Food Security Aspects
Results of the 2011-2012 IFPRI Household Survey for the
Policy Research and Strategy Support Program

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Agricultural technology potential and the role of irrigation

  1. 1. Agricultural Technology Potentialand the Role of Irrigation; FTF Zone and Bangladesh Hua Xie, Andrew Bell, Elizabeth Bryan, Claudia Ringler and Yan Sun International Food Policy Research Institute Workshop on The Feed the Future Zone in the South and the Rest of Bangladesh: A Comparison of Food Security Aspects 16 January 2013 Dhaka
  2. 2. Technology Scenarios Workshop April/20121. Identify currently used technologies by agro- ecological zone (AEZ) and by crop2. Identify the major constraints to productivity growth for key crops, by AEZ3. Identify promising productivity-enhancing technologies/practices, by AEZ and crop4. Identify barriers to the adoption of promising technologies
  3. 3. Technologies by crop
  4. 4. Data Analysis• Descriptive statistics (FTF and all Bangladesh)• Production function estimates: – For the nationally-representative sample & FtF zone – For all crops produced (VoP) and rice (kg/ha)• Descriptive statistics• SWAT Modeling to assess potential of identified technologies 4
  5. 5. Average rice yield by division and season 7,000 6,000Rice yield (kg/ha) 5,000 4,000 3,000 Boro 2,000 Aus Aman 1,000 0 Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 5
  6. 6. HYV yields slightly higher in FTF zone and hybrid yields slightly higher in non-FTF areas 7,000 Average rice yield by variety (all seasons) 6,000 5,000Rice yield (kg/ha) 4,000 3,000 National FtF 2,000 1,000 0 local HYV Hybrid Variety 6 Source: BIHS/FTF sample.
  7. 7. Irrigated rice yields are double rainfed yields. Basically no difference between FTF and non-FTF 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000Rice yield (kg/ha) 2,500 National 2,000 FtF 1,500 1,000 500 0 7 rainfed irrigated Source: BIHS/FTF sample.
  8. 8. GW irrigation is associated with highest yields, canal irrigation with lowest rice yields 6,000 5,000 4,000Rice yield (kg/ha) 3,000 National 2,000 FtF 1,000 0 Canal GW Other Source of irrigation water 8 Source: BIHS/FTF sample.
  9. 9. Irrigation is crucial—final impact depends on source of irrigation water and crops• Access to GW increases VoP by ~8,000 Taka and rice yields by 229 kg/ha, benefit higher for the lower expenditure group (BIHS-BAN)• In the FtF zone, access to GW increases rice yields among the lower expenditure group by 562 kg/ha, while access to “other” irrigation sources (pond, lake, or river) increases rice yields among the upper expenditure group by 1,230 kg/ha• Canal irrigation has a negative effect on rice yields in the national sample, especially among the lower expenditure group, showing it is less reliable than rainfed production; canal irrigation is not statistically significant for rice yields or value of production in the FTF zone 9
  10. 10. Intensive cultivation of rice has larger payoff in the FTF zone• FTF Zone: Value of Production maximized when 3 seasons of rice are cultivated [but aquaculture crop not accounted for!]• National sample: VoP maximized when 1 season of rice rotated with 2 seasons of non- rice crops• In both samples, boro rice (HYV/hybrid) contributes most to VoP 10
  11. 11. Short duration varieties• Cropping intensity-growth duration relationship No. of Growth duration (days) crops grown in a Aus Aman Boro year 1 160 116 121 2 139 122 114 >=3 99 115 104 11
  12. 12. Impact of Urea Use• Each taka spent on urea increases VoP by over 2.4 taka (national) and 2.9 taka (FTF)• Returns to other fertilizers are less: 1.6 taka (national) and 1.5 taka (FTF)• Urea shows significant returns to rice production (kg/ha) in the national sample for both expenditure groups but does not explain variance in rice production in the FTF zone• Fertilizer application shows diminishing returns to VoP and rice yields 12
  13. 13. Other inputs have expected signs• Results show positive (but diminishing) returns to labor across all levels of expenditures and crops• Pesticides show positive but diminishing returns, especially among the lower expenditure group• Expenditure on seeds and tools also increases VoP and rice yields in most cases• But extension visits are insignificant for rice yields and VoP 13
  14. 14. Results – top ranked technology improvements needed by AEZAgro-ecological zone #1 Ranked Technology/practiceModhupur Tract Quality SeedsBarind Tract Drought toleranceBeel & Haor Basin Submergence toleranceFloodplain Quality seedsHimalayan Piedmont Plain Cold toleranceNorthern and Eastern Hill Water and soil conservation practicesTidal Floodplain Submergence tolerance
  15. 15. For Quality Seed/HYV only Aus and Aman improvement, as Boro is all HYV, including hybrid (suggested for Modhupur Tract/Floodplain) 99.93% 100% 79.3% 80% 59.4% 60% HYV 40.6% Local 40% 20.7% 20% 0.07% 0% Aus Aman Boro Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 15
  16. 16. Estimated area share (%) of HYV rice cultivation in Aus & Aman season [BIHS] Aus Aman Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 16
  17. 17. High Yielding Varieties (HYVs) [BIHS] Aus Aman Boro HYV Local HYV Local HYV/HybridYield (ton/ha) 3.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 5.5Under irrigation (%) 34% 11% 43% 18% 99.4%Nitrogen fertilizer 89.7 54.3 89.9 61.7 126.9(in element N, kg/ha)Phosphorus fertilizer 33.4 14.1 28.0 17.6 49.9(in P2O5 , kg/ha)Potassium fertilizer 22.4 6.6 23.0 11.3 44.2(in K2O , kg/ha)Pesticides (Tk) 1,340 410 1,357 864 1,895 Source: BIHS/FTF sample. 17
  18. 18. Implementation of HYV technology across AUS and AMAN• Extension of current HYV yields in AUS and AMAN in 30 AEZ based on BIHS to replace currently local varieties• National averages for AEZ without cultivation of HYV All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone Increased Increased Increased Area Area Production Production production (×103 ha) (×103 ha) (×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr) HYV 1,245 1.4 2.8% 272 0.4 18
  19. 19. Estimated yield benefit due to drought tolerance trait for rainfed Aus & Aman rice (Barind Tract) Aus/Aman Aus/Aman Future climate (2050)Current climate 19
  20. 20. Implementation of drought tolerance• Assessment focuses on rainfed Aus/Aman rice• Using SWAT, we reduce the state variable of water stress by 30% to represent improved drought tolerance under current and 2050 climate (CSIRO-Mk3.0 model under A1B scenario)• 2050 climate change does not change the west-to-east drought pattern; but shifts the center of the drought-prone area from north-west to south-west All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone Increased Increased In creased Area Area Production Production production (×103 ha) (×103 ha) (×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr) Drought 592 0.4 0.8% 144 0.1 tolerance (249*) (0.041*) (0.08%) (84*) (0.014*) 20 * Without consideration of substitution of local varieties with HYV
  21. 21. Boro rice yield improvement due to cold tolerance trait (Himalayan Piedmont)Average daily minimum Estimated boro rice yield increasetemperature in Boro season due to cold tolerance trait 21
  22. 22. Implementation of cold tolerance• Assessment focuses on Boro rice• Cold tolerance trait parameterized as rice yield tolerance of 2 degrees lower base temperature• Simulation using SWAT All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone Increased Increased In creased Area Area Production Production production (×103 ha) (×103 ha) (×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr) Cold tolerance 132 <0.01 <0.02% 0 0 22
  23. 23. Salt tolerance potential (Tidal Floodplain) • High salinity risk area for rice production Agro-ecological Zone Affected area (103ha) Ganges Tidal Floodplain 339 Young Meghna Estuarine 103 Floodplain Chittagong Coastal Plain 53 • Boro rice cultivation Agro-ecological Zone Share (%) Ganges Tidal Floodplain 0.06 Young Meghna Est. Floodplain 20 Chittagong Coastal Plain 26 National average 23 43
  24. 24. Implementation of salt tolerance• Assessment focuses on Boro rice in coastal area based on BARC and FAO data (soil salinity greater 3 dS/m) and IRRI consultation• Salt-tolerance trait assumed to lead to expansion of Boro rice over those affected areas• Calculated using BIHS data on Boro yields in salt-affected AEZ [yield high but cultivated area small] All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone Increased Increased In creased Area Area Production Production production (×103 ha) (×103 ha) (×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr) Salt tolerance 495 2.6 5.2% 159 0.9 24
  25. 25. Implementation of submergence tolerance• Historical flood duration and extent of affected area data from Flood Observation at University of Colorado• Inundation duration-yield loss relationship for regular and submergence-tolerant rice varieties based on literature review and expert interview Flood Duration-Yield Loss Relationship Inundation duration (days) 0-2 3-6 7-9 10-14 15-20 >20 Regular variety (%) 10 20 40 60 70 100 Submergence tolerance varieties (%) 0 0 10 20 40 95 25
  26. 26. Aus & Aman rice yield loss reduction due tosubmergence tolerance (Bill & Haor/Tidal Floodplain) Aus Aman 26
  27. 27. Summary on technology potential All Bangladesh Feed the Future (FTF) Zone Increased Increased In creased Area Area Production Production production (×103 ha) (×103 ha) (×106 ton/yr) (%) (×106 ton/yr)HYV 1,245 1.4 2.8% 272 0.4Drought 592 0.4 0.8% 144 0.1tolerance (249*) (0.041*) (0.08%) (84*) (0.014*)Cold tolerance 132 <0.01 <0.02% 0 0Salt tolerance 495 2.6 5.2% 159 0.9Submergence 1,683 0.8 1.6% 72 0.07tolerance (1,446*) (0.5*) (1%*) (50*) (0.018*)* Without consideration of substitution of local varieties with HYV 27
  28. 28. Policy Conclusions--Irrigation• Irrigated varieties show double yields (in large part due to boro HYV/hybrid)• GW irrigation contributes most to total production value and particularly important for poorer farmers• Canal irrigation is insignificant/less reliable than rainfall•  Given growing water scarcity important to focus on improving water conservation in irrigation, including enhanced GW management and better canal irrigation management 28
  29. 29. Policy Conclusions—Other inputs• Urea fertilizer is key for rice yield and total value of production, but declining returns• Across BAN, poorer farmer apply somewhat more urea (252 kg/ha) versus richer farmers (244 kg/ha). In the FTF areas, the richer apply slightly more urea (257 kg/ha) than poorer farmers (248 kg/ha)• Each taka spent on urea increases VoP by over 2.4 taka (national) and 2.9 taka (FTF)• Need to assess role and potential of extension 29
  30. 30. Policy Conclusions—Technologies• Large potential to enhance agricultural production in Bangladesh and in FTF zone through technological advancements• Each technology has its own geographic suitability domain. Investment should target these suitability domains• For the FTF zone, largest potential for rice production improvement through salt tolerance and HYV development, which are followed by drought tolerance and submergence tolerance development 30

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