Effective Decision Making


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A book review on the book of John Adair,titled Effective decision making presented by Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed, Bangladeshi doctor works in psychiatry, BSMMU, Bangladesh.

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Effective Decision Making

  1. 1. Welcome
  2. 2. EFFECTIVE Decision Making <ul><li>Presented by </li></ul><ul><li>Dr. Helal Uddin Ahmed BSMMU </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>
  3. 3. EFFECTIVE Decision Making <ul><li>john adair </li></ul><ul><li>Chair of Leadership Studies United Nations System Staff College in Turin. </li></ul><ul><li>Former visiting Professor of Leadership Studies </li></ul><ul><li>University of Exeter </li></ul><ul><li>& </li></ul><ul><li>International consultant to a wide variety of organizations in </li></ul><ul><li>BUSINESS, EDUCATION & HEALTH </li></ul>
  4. 5. Some works of John Adair
  5. 7. Contents What is Decision Making Know your mind Steps to making Decision Three Families of ability Introduction Imaginative thinking Concept Integrity & valuing Thinking Summary Creativity Arguing Barriers to effective decision Options Using your depth mind Effective decision Intuition
  6. 11. Introduction <ul><li>The mental movements which leads to decisions: </li></ul><ul><li>In a word </li></ul><ul><li>THINKING </li></ul><ul><li>Deciding implies choice from several- or many- possibilities. Thinking is the preliminary work of weighing up the pros and cons for each course of action. </li></ul><ul><li>A decisive person is one who has the power to stop thinking and start acting. </li></ul>
  7. 12. Effective Decision Making: Management context <ul><li>1976 a questionnaire was sent to 200 business leaders. </li></ul><ul><li>Ques: What is the most valuable attributes at the top level management? </li></ul><ul><li>Ans: “ability to take decision” </li></ul>
  8. 13. What is Decision Making? <ul><li>Decision making is the cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among alternatives. </li></ul><ul><li>It begins when we need to do something but we do not know what. </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: Shopping, deciding what to eat, What to wear, when to sleep, etc.. </li></ul>
  9. 14. Five points plan for decision making Define Objectives Collect information Develop options Evaluate and decide Implement 1 3 2 1 4 5
  10. 15. <ul><li>Specifying aim & objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Having recognized the need for a decision </li></ul>Define Objectives
  11. 16. Objective
  12. 17. Collect information <ul><li>Collecting & Organizing data </li></ul><ul><li>Checking facts & opinions </li></ul><ul><li>Identifying possible causes </li></ul><ul><li>Establishing time constraints & other criteria </li></ul>
  13. 18. Information
  14. 19. Develop options <ul><li>Listing possible courses of action </li></ul><ul><li>Generating ideas </li></ul>
  15. 20. Options
  16. 21. <ul><li>Listing pros and cons </li></ul><ul><li>Examining the consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Measuring against criteria </li></ul><ul><li>Trials </li></ul><ul><li>Testing against objective </li></ul><ul><li>Selecting the best </li></ul>Evaluate and decide
  17. 22. Evaluate and decide
  18. 23. Implement <ul><li>Acting to carry out the decision </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring the decision </li></ul><ul><li>Reviewing </li></ul>
  19. 24. Implement
  20. 25. A decision making model Sense Effects Define Objectives Collect Information Monitor Consequences Implement Evaluate & Decide Develop Options Sensing effects means having the awareness which picks up the signs and symptoms of existing problem.
  21. 26. KNOW YOUR MIND <ul><li>Improve your decision making ability </li></ul><ul><li>By </li></ul><ul><li>sharpening the thinking tools which nature and education have provided. </li></ul>
  22. 27. <ul><li>Human brain contains around 10,000,000,000 neurons. </li></ul><ul><li>According to scientist we loss about 10,000 neurons/day. </li></ul><ul><li>But at 80 years of age we lost only 3% of brain capacity. </li></ul><ul><li>There are relationship between mental activity and brains chemistry and anatomy. </li></ul><ul><li>Our mind has almost limitless potentials. </li></ul><ul><li>Brain is the most powerful biological super computer. </li></ul>Brain power
  23. 28. 3 families of abilities Families of abilities The Analyzers The Valuers The Synthesizers The mind has several different ways of working and they can be called families of abilities
  24. 29. The Analyzers <ul><li>Analyzers = greek verb means unloosen or break up. </li></ul><ul><li>Separate a whole into it’s component parts. </li></ul><ul><li>They can resolve anything complex into it’s simple elements. </li></ul>
  25. 30. The Synthesizer <ul><li>Reverse of analyzing. </li></ul><ul><li>Components/parts are assembled together. </li></ul>
  26. 31. The Valuers <ul><li>The valuers revolve around the perception of value, worth or significance. </li></ul><ul><li>They include all form of judging, criticizing and evaluating. </li></ul>
  27. 32. Thinking <ul><li>Mind is one : Thinking & Emotions often contrasted. </li></ul><ul><li>Most powerful emotions lie dormant in our mind. </li></ul><ul><li>Control your emotions in rational way. </li></ul>Emotions Thinking
  28. 33. A good ANALYTICAL mind <ul><li>Establishing the relations of the parts to each other and to the whole. </li></ul><ul><li>Finding the true cause or causes of the problem. </li></ul><ul><li>Identifying the issue at stake- the ‘either-or’. </li></ul><ul><li>Discovering a law in nature. </li></ul><ul><li>Searching for the principles behind experience. </li></ul>
  29. 34. For a good ANALYTICAL mind <ul><li>Ask questions yourself. </li></ul><ul><li>Remember the magic words: Who? Which? Why? Why not? When Where? How? </li></ul>?
  30. 35. Synthesizer: Holistic Thinker <ul><li>Holism: The tendency in nature to produce wholes by ordering or grouping various units together. </li></ul>
  31. 36. Holistic Approach <ul><li>Prefers to deal with wholes </li></ul><ul><li>Dislike overmuch analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Feeling no compulsive desire to take things or people to bits to see what they are made of. </li></ul><ul><li>The holist sees the woods not the tree </li></ul>
  32. 37. Gestalt school of psychology <ul><li>The whole is always more than sum of its parts, just as melody is more than its separate notes. </li></ul><ul><li>Relationship between the events- not the events themselves </li></ul><ul><li>No events occurs in isolation </li></ul><ul><li>Intuitive grasp of overall significance of behavior is more desirable then the mechanical explanation. </li></ul>
  33. 38. Basic laws of Gestalt Psychologist <ul><li>Figure-ground relationship </li></ul><ul><li>Similarity </li></ul><ul><li>Proximity </li></ul><ul><li>Closure </li></ul><ul><li>Good continuation </li></ul><ul><li>Simplicity. </li></ul><ul><li>Subjective contour </li></ul>
  34. 39. Ex: Good continuation <ul><li>C </li></ul><ul><li>A B </li></ul><ul><li>D </li></ul>
  35. 40. Ex: Good continuation C A B D
  36. 41. Ex: Subjective contour <ul><li>The contour of a white triangle is perceived even though it doesn’t exist. </li></ul>
  37. 42. Ex: Simplicity
  38. 43. Ex: Simplicity
  39. 44. Ex: Simplicity
  40. 45. Ex: Simplicity
  41. 46. Ex: Simplicity
  42. 47. Ex: Simplicity
  43. 48. Ex: Simplicity
  44. 49. Ex: Simplicity The law of Prägnanz
  45. 50. Ex: Closure
  46. 51. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman
  47. 52. Ex: Closure Do you Identify the Person?
  48. 53. Mohondas Koram Chand Gandhi
  49. 54. Ex: Proximity The closer objects near each other tend to be grouped together (Ehrenstein, 2004) Left circles are grouped vertically and rights are horizontally .
  50. 55. Ex: Symmetry Most people see vertical column of circle and square
  51. 56. <ul><li>Ex: Figure - Ground </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Viewers will perceive an object (figure) and a surface (ground) even in shapes are grouped together (Ehrenstein, 2004). </li></ul></ul>(Chang, 2002)
  52. 57. British Holistic Medical Association:1983 <ul><li>Principles : </li></ul><ul><li>Mind and Body are a unity and should be treated as such </li></ul><ul><li>Nature heals, we help </li></ul><ul><li>What works with one person, may not necessarily works with another </li></ul>
  53. 58. Thinking in Concept <ul><li>A concept is a way of categorizing or classifying the people, objects and events in the environment. (Anglin ,1977). </li></ul><ul><li>Natural concepts & Artificial ( logical) concept. </li></ul>
  54. 59. Artificial (Logical) Concept <ul><li>Abstract Thinker </li></ul><ul><li>Visionary </li></ul><ul><li>Criticism:  difficult to understand  remote from apprehension  insufficiently factual  theoretical, detached  impersonal </li></ul>
  55. 60. Development of Concepts Birds: Wings Feathers Fly Animal: Eats Breathes Crow: Wings Feathers Fly Black color Parrot: Wings Feathers Fly Green color Fish: Fin Gills Swims Hilsha: Fin Gills Swims Not Dangerous Piranha: Fin Gills Swims Dangerous
  56. 61. Foundation of good Decision Making <ul><li>Quality of concept </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to develop concept </li></ul><ul><li>Aim to have clear concept </li></ul><ul><li>Define the concept– as well as </li></ul><ul><li>Open to new light on them from unexpected source </li></ul>
  57. 62. Concept of a vehicle <ul><li>Good Concept : </li></ul>
  58. 63. Concept of a vehicle <ul><li>Bad Concept : </li></ul>
  59. 64. Regarding concept <ul><li>“ No great improvements in the lot of mankind are possible, until a great change takes place in the fundamental constitution of their modes of thought.” </li></ul><ul><li> - John Stuart Mill </li></ul>
  60. 65. Imaginative Thinking <ul><li>Our mind have a fundamental visual capacity, we not only see things but we can shut our eyes and remember the picture of what we have seen . That is one pole of Imagination. </li></ul><ul><li>The other pole is that we don’t see before . That have no existence but we can visualize with ‘third eye’. </li></ul>
  61. 66. Two Polls of Imagination <ul><li>What we have seen </li></ul>Imaginative Thinking What we don’t see before
  62. 67. Imaginative Thinking <ul><li>“ I can see the whole of it at a single glance in my mind, as if it were a beautiful painting or a handsome human being” </li></ul><ul><li>------W A Mozart </li></ul>
  63. 68.
  64. 69. Imaginative Abilities <ul><li>Recalling </li></ul><ul><li>Visualizing </li></ul><ul><li>Creating </li></ul><ul><li>Foreseeing </li></ul><ul><li>Fantasy </li></ul>
  65. 70. Thinking and Imagination <ul><li>Thinking without imagination </li></ul><ul><li>Imagination without thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Imaginative thinking </li></ul>
  66. 71. Develop Imaginative Thinking <ul><li>Changing your self image- the way you see yourself. </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t apply imagination to yourself-you are unlikely to apply it in life. </li></ul>Most Potent way of unlocking the doors of the practical imagination is changing self image
  67. 72. Read it
  68. 73. Read it
  69. 74. What do you understand by this picture
  71. 76. Thinking Beyond Imagination You know that your looking at a real building right? The Crooked House was built in 2004 as an addition at a popular shopping center, and is a major tourist attraction in Sopot, Poland. what happenswhen someone sees this building for the first time in their life?
  72. 77. Integrity &Valuing <ul><li>“ Integrity is the quality which makes people trust you.” </li></ul><ul><li>--Lord Slim </li></ul><ul><li>At the core of integrity lies the value of truth. The common synonym is honesty- the refusal to lie, steal or deceive in any way. </li></ul>
  73. 78. <ul><li>A good decision maker can perceive the truth in a situation. </li></ul><ul><li>Good decision making ability rests upon 2 pillars: 1. Establishing the truth 2. Knowing what to do </li></ul>Integrity &Valuing
  74. 79. <ul><li>Policy for thinkers: 1. Always assume that truth exists 2. Discover the truth- rather to invent it. </li></ul>Integrity &Valuing Einstein's theory: One man’s now is another man’s then .
  75. 80. Valuing in Perspective <ul><li>Valuing is a dimension in all thinking rather than discrete function. </li></ul><ul><li>In certain mental situation it is playing the leading part- such as judgement, criticizing, interviewing someone etc. </li></ul>
  76. 81. Intuition <ul><li>6 th sense </li></ul>“ I just know ”
  77. 82. <ul><li>Power or faculty of immediately apprehending that something in the case. </li></ul><ul><li>Apparently it is done without intervention of any reasoning process. </li></ul><ul><li>No deductive or inductive step by step reasoning. </li></ul><ul><li>No conscious analysis of the situation. </li></ul><ul><li>No employment of the imagination. </li></ul><ul><li>Just a quick and ready insight. </li></ul>Intuition
  78. 83. Trusting Your Intuition <ul><li>Intuition is not intellectually respectable but- if anybody has an iron grip on his mind then he or she should trust on his/her intuition. </li></ul>Researchers said Einstein have been intuitive in his works.
  79. 84. Trusting Your Intuition <ul><li>There is no logical way to discovery of these elemental laws. There is only the way of intuition, which is helped by a feeling for the order lying behind the appearance. </li></ul><ul><li>----Einstein </li></ul>Researchers commented Einstein have been intuitive in his works.
  80. 85. Emotion & Intuition <ul><li>Emotion and intuition have their sources close together in the hinterland of the brain. </li></ul><ul><li>The negative emotions of fear and anxiety can express themselves in intuition. </li></ul><ul><li>Ex: a nervous passenger may have intuition that his flight to Coxes-bazar will crash and he transfer to another one. </li></ul>
  81. 86. Emotion & Intuition <ul><li>A positive emotion can also lead to wishful intuition. </li></ul><ul><li>Ex: A man or woman in love have intuition about the character of the adored lover which turn out to be groundless. </li></ul>
  82. 87. <ul><li>The success rate of this type of anxiety intuition or love intuition is remarkably low. </li></ul><ul><li>Before intuitive- be sure you are a physically and emotionally fit. </li></ul><ul><li>Mountaineers are aware that decision taken in a state of exhaustion drop dramatically in quality. </li></ul>Emotion & Intuition If you are tired, best to think logically what to do- and not to rely upon your intuition.
  83. 88. Things to Remember <ul><li>Pre-occupation or false assumption </li></ul><ul><li>is not intuition </li></ul>
  84. 91. Using Your Depth Mind Unconscious mind Preconscious mind Conscious mind Subconscious mind
  85. 92. Consciousness <ul><li>Consciousness: The sum total of all the external stimuli and internal mental events of which we are aware at any given time. </li></ul><ul><li>Stream of consciousness is the continual fluctuation between external and internal events. </li></ul>
  86. 93. Subconscious Mental Activity <ul><li>Subconscious processes are mental or behavioral activities that take place outside conscious awareness. </li></ul><ul><li>Sigmund Freud further subdivided this subconscious mind into— 1. Preconscious processes 2. Unconscious processes </li></ul>
  87. 94. Preconscious & Unconscious processes <ul><li>Preconscious processes: That can be brought into awareness by paying attention to them. </li></ul><ul><li>Unconscious processes: These are more or less permanently unavailable to consciousness. </li></ul>
  88. 95. How to activate your depth mind <ul><li>Make lots of decision in your field. </li></ul><ul><li>See relation between your decision- despite differences of time ,place and scale. </li></ul><ul><li>Look on your brain as a mental computer </li></ul><ul><li>Avoid mental laziness </li></ul><ul><li>Few people are willing to make the effort- ‘the many fail, the one succeeds’. ---Lord Thomson </li></ul>
  89. 96. Options <ul><li>Possibilities are not options. </li></ul><ul><li>Decision making needs- collecting, assessing, and choosing from a set of options. </li></ul><ul><li>Enemy of good options- false assumptions about resources and limitations. </li></ul><ul><li>Apply creative thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Calculated risk and assessment of probabilities. </li></ul>
  90. 97. Developing Options for Decision Making <ul><li>● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● </li></ul>        A Possibilities Feasible options Situation after- 3,4, 5 & 7 have been eliminated The essential issue, the either or choice Choice Decision Action/Implementation
  91. 98. Arguing <ul><li>Argument is the debate of high quality upon the reasons for and against the various courses of action. </li></ul><ul><li>The application of argumentative thinking depends upon situation, matter under consideration and temperament of the good manager. </li></ul><ul><li>Wish to here other points of view- because person may be partly perfect or fully convinced . </li></ul>
  92. 99. Wrong way to arguing <ul><li>Argumentum ad hominem Playing the man –not the ball. </li></ul>
  93. 101. Wrong way to arguing <ul><li>Argumentum ad invidium: An argument to envy or prejudice , i.e. appealing to those emotions. </li></ul><ul><li>Argument by analogy: Search similarity, metaphor. </li></ul><ul><li>Buck-passing (de-shouldering) in the form of rationalizing. </li></ul><ul><li>Ignoratio elenchi: Drawing irrelevant conclusion, ignoring at the matter at issue. </li></ul>
  94. 102. Wrong way to arguing <ul><li>Reduction to absurdity: Attempt to disprove a proposal by producing something that is both obviously deducible from it and contrary to common sense. </li></ul><ul><li>The no decision/no action: </li></ul>
  95. 103. <ul><li>All and some: Too more statistics and over generalization. </li></ul><ul><li>Middle of the road arguments: </li></ul>Wrong way to arguing
  96. 104. Creativity <ul><li>Creativity involves the generation of new ideas. </li></ul><ul><li>It should be: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Novel : unique, new, innovative, different, imaginative, non-typical, unusual. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Useful : responds to a need, has some utility or value, answers a question. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understandable : not the result of chance, reproducible </li></ul></ul>
  97. 105. Creativity <ul><li>Creativity Needs: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Skill: Learned capacity or talent to carry out pre-determined results. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Talent: Natural endowments of a person. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Personality: Patterns of relatively enduring characteristics of human behavior </li></ul></ul></ul>
  98. 106. What is effective decision <ul><li>Effective decision is not necessarily a perfect decision ( if such a thing exists?) </li></ul><ul><li>It should be the best decision after considering all. </li></ul><ul><li>It does not effective in the sense of intention- effective in the sense of outcome. </li></ul>
  99. 107. Check list For an effective decision maker <ul><li>Have I defined the objectives?  </li></ul><ul><li>Do I have sufficient information?  </li></ul><ul><li>What are the feasible options?  </li></ul><ul><li>Have I evaluate them correctly?  </li></ul><ul><li>Does this decision feel right now and I have begun to implement it?  </li></ul>
  100. 109. What is an Effective Thinker <ul><li>Skill of analyzing, synthesizing, valuing </li></ul><ul><li>Committed to think it through </li></ul><ul><li>Knows when and how use the depth mind </li></ul><ul><li>Receptive to intuition </li></ul><ul><li>Imaginative </li></ul><ul><li>Open to new ideas </li></ul><ul><li>Able to link his mind with others in the search for truth . </li></ul>
  101. 110. Making an inventory of your skills <ul><li>Know thyself </li></ul>
  102. 111. Barriers to Effective Decision Making “ Successful leaders have the courage to take action while others hesitate.” - John C. Maxwell
  103. 112. Barriers to Effective Decision Making <ul><li>Hasty - Making quick decisions without having much thought. </li></ul><ul><li>Narrow - Decision making is based on very limited information. </li></ul><ul><li>Scattered - Our thoughts in making decisions are disconnected or disorganized. </li></ul><ul><li>Fuzzy - The lack of clarity on important aspects of a decision causes us to overlook certain important considerations. </li></ul>
  104. 113. <ul><li>Craving for unanimous approval </li></ul><ul><li>Trying to make decisions which are outside your realm of authority. </li></ul><ul><li>Not following the 5 steps plan. </li></ul><ul><li>No imagination- full of mechanical thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Only imagination- no scientific approach </li></ul><ul><li>Not fit physically or mentally </li></ul>Barriers to Effective Decision Making
  105. 115. Summary Sharpening the thinking tools Know your mind Objective Collect information Develop Options Evaluate & Decide Implementation Five points plan for Decision making Analyzers Synthesizers Valuers Three Families of ability Cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among alternatives. What is Decision Making
  106. 116. Summary contd. Thinking without imagination Imagination without thinking Develop Imaginative thinking Imaginative thinking Artificial concept Integrating concept Concept Always assume that truth exists Discover the truth- rather to invent it. Integrity & valuing Thinking & emotions Analytical mind Holistic approach Gestalt laws Thinking
  107. 117. Summary contd. Need for creativity Creativity Arguing Wrong way to arguing Arguing Hasty, Narrow, Scattered, Fuzzy Barriers to effective decision Developing options Options Conscious mind Pre-conscious mind Unconscious mind Using your depth mind Effective decision is not perfect decision always Effective decision Trusting your intuition Emotion & intuition Pre-occupation is not intuition Intuition
  108. 118. The Train to Bangladesh 2020 BANGLADESH 1971 BANGLADESH 2009 The Decision Makers
  109. 120. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul>