The Future of Mobility by Hunter Lovins


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Presented at Sonoma Raceway's Accelerating Sustainable Performance Summit.

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The Future of Mobility by Hunter Lovins

  1. 1. Natural Capitalism Solutions T H E F U T U R E O F M O B I L I T Y © NCS 2009
  2. 2. I love motors...
  3. 3. The world is changing
  4. 4. Business-As-Usual cannot endure Businesses, governments and raceways will either drive change in ways that allow companies and economies to flourish or they will be forced respond to unrelenting crises and hope for the best.
  5. 5. Global Drivers of Change • Carbon constrained world • Volatile energy prices • The sustainability imperative • Loss of ecosystem services • Chindia • Economic instability • Water • Food
  6. 6. Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Taiichi Ohno: “Prior to the oil crisis [of the 1970s], when I talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing technology and production system, I found little interest. When rapid growth stopped, however, it became very obvious that a business could not be profitable using the conventional American mass production system that had worked so well for so long.” “The Oil Crisis Opened our Eyes” Toyota Production System, 1978.
  7. 7. Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Taiichi Ohno: “Prior to the oil crisis [of the 1970s], when I talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing technology and production system, I found little interest. When rapid growth stopped, however, it became very obvious that a business could not be profitable using the conventional American mass production system that had worked so well for so long.” “The Oil Crisis Opened our Eyes” Toyota Production System, 1978.
  8. 8. 2006 Profits ($B)
  9. 9. R. James Woolsey’s solar powered plug-in-hybrid has a bumper sticker reading: “Osama bin Ladin hates my car.”
  10. 10. IEA 2007: IEA report: World could face oil shortage within five years 2009: Whistleblowers: IEA deliberately understating how close the world may be to running out of oil - ‘imperative not to anger the Americans’ or cause panic Dec 2009: IEA Chief Economist: “ three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline... which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view. ”
  11. 11. WikiLeaks cables show that Saudi Arabia's oil reserves have been exaggerated by as much as 40%, or 300 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves
  12. 12. 24 February $120 a barrel Libyan revolution 3 March $200 a barrel if Algeria goes offline Economist 7 March $250 a barrel if oil tankers and reserves in Libya hit Alan Duncan: UK Int’l Development Minister
  13. 13. Time to reconsider?
  14. 14. Why do we drive…? Status Fun ScheduleCargo
  15. 15. Transportation – we’ve come a long way
  16. 16. Transport … carrying: Food Stuff People from one place to another
  17. 17. Do we need to get into a car every day? •  The average car trip is less than 16 km (10 miles) •  Design better transportation systems •  Create walkable neighborhoods
  18. 18. Transportation •  27% of all automobile miles traveled are incurred going to and from work •  78% are driven in single-occupancy vehicles (SOV)
  19. 19. Transport costs • Traffic congestion • Air quality • Collisions • Infrastructure and Maintenance • Environmental Costs An average parking space costs roughly $6,000 per year
  20. 20. GHG Emissions •  Transportation sector is the fastest growing in terms of climate impact. -  13% of global greenhouse gases (GHG) •  At current rate, emissions will increase 57% worldwide by 2030. - 80% of this in developing countries
  21. 21. Auto Deaths In countries that are free of war, the largest cause of violent death is usually traffic fatalities Young people have more car accidents than almost any other age group Accidents raise health care costs, insurance rates, and lost work productivity
  22. 22. We’ve reduced our social interactions to aggressive competition through windscreens for square meters of asphalt Road rage
  23. 23. Next wave of transportation innovation should: Decrease congestion Foster accessibility and equity Enhance livelihoods Support walkable communities Enhance pedestrian mobility Improve environmental impact Decrease cost
  24. 24. How much could you save by sharing a car? Total cost of ownership, over $30,000 •  Average annual car insurance $1,837 •  Annual operating costs $6,000 – $10,000 •  Cost of new mid-size sedan $20,000
  25. 25. Carsharing •  Use a vehicle when you need it, without the annual cost of ownership •  Carsharing programs in operation in 600 cities around the world.
  26. 26. Time to change the way we fund transportation •  Gas Tax •  Electronic Tolling •  Variable Pricing •  Regional Partnerships •  Incentivize Public & Alternative Transit •  Bike Lanes
  27. 27. Vauban, Germany car-free city 70% of Vauban’s 5,500 residents do not own cars, and 57% sold a car to move there.
  28. 28. UK transit policy In 2000, Britain began comprehensive effort to discourage car use by requiring that new development be accessible by public transit. “Development comprising jobs, shopping, leisure and services should not be designed and located on the assumption that the car will represent the only realistic means of access for the vast majority of people”
  29. 29. Masdar- The Source – Abu Dhabi City of 50,000 Car free Zero waste Passively cooled Solar canopies Center for renewable energy research 1,500 clean tech start-ups focusing on solar, wind and hydrogen power, carbon reduction and management, sustainable development, education, manufacturing
  30. 30. Congestion Tax Vehicles entering city centers are charged based on real-time pricing - Reduce traffic congestion - Improve air quality - Generates revenue - Lowers GHG emissions
  31. 31. Bio-Fuels Our need for oil is fast becoming a hunger problem Food Riots Competing for scarce land
  32. 32. Growing food and water scarcity 33 countries around the world face potential social unrest due to spikes in food prices. The recent spikes in food prices have left nations volatile, with ensuing food riots World Bank President Robert Zoellick Food riots fear after rice price hits a high
  33. 33. World and regional ethanol production
  34. 34. •  Expanded hybrid fleet by 50% to over 250 vehicles •  Improve fuel economy by 44% •  Decrease particulate matter by 96% •  Reduce smog-causing (NOx) emissions by 75% FedEx Hybrid Vehicles
  35. 35. Federal agreement with 13 automakers to reach 54.5 MPG by 2025. Equals a fuel savings of $8,000 per vehicle, or $1.7 trillion nationally. Reduces oil consumption by 2.2 million barrels a day, this is half of what we import from OPEC. Fuel Efficiency Standard
  36. 36. •  Of the 41 million cars in the Germany, only 1,452 are electric. •  German government goal to put million electric vehicles on roadways by 2020. •  Government investing €500m ($705m) to achieve this. Electric Cars … the future of the auto industry?
  37. 37. Fiskar Karma with PV roof
  38. 38. Renault/ BMW concept car VW E-Up electric car 2013 – 130 km range, 1 hr to 80% charge
  39. 39. Challenge: lithium batteries Japanese are recycling the lithium
  40. 40. Shai Agassi Better Place – renewable electric cars
  41. 41. NASCAR: Mainstream Green NASCAR is the top spectator sport in the U.S., with an estimated 75 million followers The No. 2 regular season sport on TV. Potential for helping to make “green” more mainstream.
  42. 42. Has the largest recycling program in sports. Recycled over: - 1,000 tons of paper/cans - 121,000 tires - 180,000 gallons of oil Made possible by partnerships with: - Coca-cola - Coors Light - Freightliner - Goodyear NASCAR Green Initiatives
  43. 43. NASCAR Green Initiatives Participating raceways plant 10 trees for each green flag that drops. Last year over 1000 trees were planted. Plans to expand the program to offset 100% of GHG emissions from racing.
  44. 44. NASCAR Green Initiatives All races are now run on 15% ethanol. Comes from corn grown in the U.S. Reduces GHG emissions by 20%. The fuel blend increases horsepower 6-8%.
  45. 45. NASCAR Green Initiatives “ . . . the switch to ethanol might be the most important step in achieving an ancillary benefit — attracting new sponsors in the green economy to cash-strapped teams hurting for funding since the onset of the recession.” - CEO / Chairman Brian France
  46. 46. NASCAR Green Initiatives "Safe. Green. Smart. Quality. These are the four pillars of Ford Motor Company and it's our mission that we are committed to on a daily basis . . . . and we applaud NASCAR for taking this important step toward an ethanol blend of fuel.” - Jamie Allison, Director of Ford North America Motorsports “It's terribly important to car manufacturers that we're in step with the strategic thinking they're doing right now. - CEO / Chairman Brian France
  47. 47. NASCAR had trouble requiring cars to use 4-cylinder engines because “lower-revving engines would detract from the races’ aural spectacle”. Instead, race cars will use 6-cylinder engines in 2013, which will achieve 35% better fuel efficiency than currently used V-8 engines. Formula One cars are also switching from 2.4 litre V8s to 1.6 litre turbocharged V6s. NASCAR Green Initiatives
  48. 48. NASCAR and Other Tracks Select IndyCar Series races run on 100% field-grade ethanol. IZOD IndyCar Series installing solar electric systems and educating fans on solar power during the 2011 season. Pocono Raceway in PA has a 25-acre solar farm – the world’s largest solar-powered sports facility.
  49. 49. Installed a 1,700 panel, 350 kilowatt solar array - Provides 41% of energy Waterless urinals reduce water consumption by 36%, and landscaping uses recycled and reclaimed water The raceway has 3,000 sheep to help maintain the facility’s grasses and fire lanes Infineon Raceway
  50. 50. Recognized by State of California for recycling over 141 tons of material. Held first zero-emission motorcycle race on American soil. 15 owl boxes encourage owls to nest and hunt for rodents – reducing the need for pesticides and other pest-controlling poisons Infineon Raceway
  51. 51. Global Biodiversity Outlook Three - GBO-3
  52. 52. I am a professor of a discipline that did not exist when I went to college
  53. 53. Ray Anderson What is the business case for ending life on earth?
  54. 54. The best way to predict the future is to invent it
  55. 55. Natural Capitalism Solutions L O N G M O N T, C O L O R A D O