Life Cycle Management• Communication tailored to customer’s stage: 1) Welcome & educate. (“Here’s how”) 2) Upsell. Seek referrals 3) Seek renewal, or give retention pitch• How to know what phase they’re in? – Sometimes, it’s easy (first-time player) – Otherwise, predictives usually used
Best Practices from TelcosThese companies learned:• More-engaged customer Easier to upsell• More upselling Lower churnFor best results:• Limit customer communications, and deliver the right message at each stage – Upselling too soon will overwhelm or annoy – Customers are receptive during brief windows
“Why not just promote to everybody?”Why does tight targeting raise total revenue?• If you spam with conversion/upsell offers… – Players become numbed to your messages – Annoyed, players opt-out, or stop playing (You’ve expedited your churn) – Players are not focused onto the most-appropriate message for their life-cycle stage – You waste money (communication, discounts) – You hurt your reputation & degrade trust
The Purpose of PredictivesFocusing promos on those most likely to buy/etc• Communicate to fewer customers – Reduce opt-outs, burn-out, churn• Reach many of the target group – Send the offer to those who want it• Reach others who are similar to the targets – Share the offer with those “on the fence”
Pragmatics: What data?What data is used for social-game predictives?1. User-specific (not personal) – Demographics (if available). Location (IP#)2. Game events – Session starts/stops. Achievements, purchases3. Social-graph data – Invites. Gifting. PvP actions. “Visiting”. Etc.
Tech: Algorithms used• Neural network, with back propagation• Support vector machines• Random forests, with entropy reduction• Graph-theoretic methods – Including: social graph analysis• Machine learning
What went right?Overall increase in conversions… WHY?• Similar players get similar predictive ratings – “Marginal converters” are rated similarly to inevitable converters.• Promotions go to a smaller group – Less promo-fatigue & irritation; fewer opt-outs – Tightly-targeted emails get huge open rates & CTR