CLIMATE CHANGE , ADAPTATION AND FARMERS PERCEPTION : IN BAHIR DAR ZURIA DISTRICT, AMHARA NATIONAL REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA National Conference on Forest Resilience, Biodiversity and Climate Change, Nov.23-24,2012 BY Solomon Addisu Legesse Ph.D. Full Time Research Scholar, Andhra University, Science and Technology College, Department of Environmental Sciences, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Outline of the presentation1. Introduction2. Evidences of climate change in the world/ Ethiopia3. Climate Trend analysis of BD Zuria District4. Farmers field experience of climate change5. Adaptation and Constraints6. Conclusions and way forward
1. Introduction Climate change is a change in the" average weather" that a given region experiences. – Indicated by elements of weather & climate – Climate change usually expressed in terms of temperature and rainfall variability – If there is statistically significant variation, According to IPCC (2001), climate change refers to anychange in climate over time whether due to naturalvariability or as a result of human activity
…contThe successive absorption and emission ofIR(Long wave Radiation) by the surface of theearth resulted in green house effect. Natural GH effect = Optimum condition for the existence of species Enhanced GH effect =Global Worming = Climate related hazards
The Natural Greenhouse Effect• The Earth is covered by a blanket of gas.• The energy from the Sun reaches the Earth’s surface, where some it is converted to heat energy.• Most of the heat is re-radiated towards space, but some is trapped by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.• This natural effect allows the Earth’s temperature to be kept at a level necessary to support life. 5
But there is the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect• Look how this is different!• Much more of the heat from the sun gets trapped in the atmosphere• So the Earth gets hotter 6
Though only 1% of atmospheric gases are greenhouse gases, they are extremelypowerful heat trappers. By burning fossil fuels faster and faster, humans are effectively piling on moreblankets, heating the planet so much and so quickly that it’s hard for MotherNature and human societies to adapt. 7
Top Greenhouse Gas Emitters19.1 % - United States9.9% - China5.1% - Japan4.3% - Brazil3.8 % - Germany2.4% - United Kingdom1.9% - Indonesia1.7% - Italy The combustion of fossil fuels in power generation 9
3. Evidences of climate change in the World and Ethiopia
The CO2 concentration has risen by nearly 100 ppm. The annual CO2 growth rate was larger during the last 10 years than it has been since continuous direct atmospheric measurements beganCO2 concentration in the atmosphere. (Source: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2005. Atmospheric CO2 records fromsites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide InformationAnalysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.)
Average Temperature Over the Past 130 Years 15.0Average Surface Temperature (°C) ( 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year 12
Summer Arctic sea ice declining: Source: NOAA Symbols indicate annual mean values while the smooth blue curve shows decadal variations.
2. Evidences of climate change in Ethiopia .• Drying of Lakes: eg. Lake Haromaya• Tana lake level declined by 62 cm.• water surface shrink: area of lake Ziway predicted to shrink to 25 km2.• Decrease in flow Basins of rivers• Extreme events: like Flooding, Frost in the highlands and Drought in arid areas of the country:Source: Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research,2010
Figure: Long-term summer rainfall time series of the central highlands of Ethiopia(1898-1997)
The Frequency of Drought in Ethiopia Year interval Number of disasters Average recurrence Average recurrence 5 Once in 40 years 12AD-787AD 6 Roughly once in 100 years 832AD-968AD 3 Roughly once in 45 years 1006AD-1200AD 4 Roughly once in 48 years 1252-1340 5 Roughly once in 18 years 1400-1789 26 Roughly once in 15 years 1800-1900 10 Roughly once in 10 years 1900-1987 14 Roughly once in 6 years 1988-2002 5 Roughly once in 3 yearsTable: Frequency of occurrences of drought events in Ethiopia (Source: NMSA, 1987)
Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by total number of people affected are: Disaster Date Total Affected Drought 2003 12,600,000 Drought May-1983 7,750,000 Drought Jun-1987 7,000,000 Drought Oct-1989 6,500,000 Drought Dec-1973 3,000,000 Drought Nov-2005 2,600,000 Drought Sep-1969 1,700,000 Drought Jul-1965 1,500,000 Drought Feb-1997 986,200 Flood 27-Oct-2006 361,600Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net
Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by economic damage costs are: Disaster Date Damage US$ (000s) Drought Dec-1973 76,000 Drought Jul-1998 15,600 Earthquake 25-Aug-1906 6,750 Flood 23-Apr-2005 5,000 Flood 15-Aug-1994 3,500 Flood 5-Aug-2006 3,200 Flood 20-May-2005 1,200 Drought Sep-1969 1,000 Flood 7-May-1968 920 Earthquake 29-Mar-1969 320Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net
3. Climate Trend analysis of BahirDar Zuria District• Maximum Temperature• Minimum Temperature• Rain fall amount
5. Farmers field experience of climate change• Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy of Ethiopia : It represents 47% of the country’s GDP, contributes about 80% of the total export value and employs 85% of the population dependence on rainfall (over 95%). the largest livestock population in Africa and the tenth largest in the world..
Cont…Variable Responde Variable Respondents nts in % (%)Temperature increased 78.0 Precipitation 17.3 increasedTemperature decreased/ 2.0 Precipitation 66.7 decrease late coming and 83% early cases of summer rainNo change 20.0 No change 16.0
5. Adaptation Vs ConstraintsVariable Respondents Constraints (%) (%)Crop diversification 88.0* Soil fertility 41Changing planting date 82.0 Lack of extension services 81Changing the 58.0 Lack of information 62managementSaving and borrowing 54.6 Access to credit 61Soil & water 82.4 Land tenure/fragmentation 42conservationPlanting trees 78.0 Poor potential for irrigations 82No adaptation 10.0 No constraint 2 * The sum may not add up to 100 % due to repeated responses
6. Conclusions and way forward• Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable country to the problems of climate change due to its rain fed agriculture dependence and /Subsistence/• Climate change is severely affecting agricultural productivity• Farmers of BDZ District perceived the changes of climate from their field experiences• Farmers of BDZ District are trying to adapt climate change effects, but still have constraints.
…cont• Climate change is real and we need to be doing something about it• The longer we wait, the fewer our options• Regional patterns of warming will be complicated• Climate surprises can’t be discounted• Climate change will create regional agricultural winners and losers