Will Grid Parity be achieved in Europe by 2013?


                  Manfred Bächler
                  Phoenix Solar AG
   ...
Table of Contents




1.  Company Profile
2.  BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010
3.  Outlook 2013




                            2
Business Model



           Solar Modules   BOS-Components




                                            3
Offering to the Customer


Segments




               Power Plant Sales
 Power
 Plants
               Investor Business

...
Worldwide Company Locations
          in 8 Countries and 3 Continents




                              Phoenix Solar
    ...
Product Mix:
Thin-film vs. Crystalline Modules

                                    Crystalline




                      ...
Table of Contents




1.  Company Profile
2.  BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010
3.  Outlook 2013




                            7
Cost Drivers for Large Systems
(Fixed-Tilted, Ground-Based) – 2005 status




                                            ...
Cost Structure Development – Thin Film

      2006 (3.9-4.1€/Wp)                 2010 (2.4-2.6€/Wp)




                  ...
Cost Structure Development – Crystalline

      2006 (3.9-4.2€/Wp)                   2010 (3.9-4.2€/Wp)




              ...
TCO over 20 years – Germany (TF)

           2005                    2010




                                          11
Table of Contents




1.  Company Profile
2.  BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010
3.  Outlook 2013




                            12
Development of Prices, TCO by 2013 for large scale
      power plants

  Assuming a 10-11% reduction in FiT in Germany (a...
Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?

  Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position
  Demand vs. Ge...
Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?




                                        15
Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?

  Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position
  Demand vs. Ge...
Electricity Rates (Residential)




                                  17
Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?
  Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position
  Demand vs. Gen...
Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?

  The most important (or the only relevant) question:

   Who has a problem which ...
the sun and only
     Manfred Bächler
     Phoenix Solar AG
   www.phoenixsolar.de
m.baechler@phoenixsolar.de
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The Solar Future DE - Manfred Bächler "Will grid parity have been achieved in Europe’s largest markets by 2013?"

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Manfred Bächler; CTO, Phoenix Solar AG

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The Solar Future DE - Manfred Bächler "Will grid parity have been achieved in Europe’s largest markets by 2013?"

  1. 1. Will Grid Parity be achieved in Europe by 2013? Manfred Bächler Phoenix Solar AG June 8, 2010
  2. 2. Table of Contents 1.  Company Profile 2.  BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010 3.  Outlook 2013 2
  3. 3. Business Model Solar Modules BOS-Components 3
  4. 4. Offering to the Customer Segments Power Plant Sales Power Plants Investor Business Residential Commercial Large-Scale 1 kWp* 20 kWp 500 kWp 1 MWp 5 MWp 10 MWp+ Phoenix Solar’s business model covers all PV system sizes: •  Components & Systems 1kWp - 1 MWp •  Power Plants > 500 kWp * not to scale 4
  5. 5. Worldwide Company Locations in 8 Countries and 3 Continents Phoenix Solar AG, Germany (Since Nov. 1999) Phoenix Solar  SAS, France   (Since Sept. 2009)    Phoenix Solar, Phoenix Solar USA S.L., Spain  (coming H1 2010) (Since Apr. 2006) Phoenix Solar Phoenix Solar S.r.l., Italy (Since July 2006) Pte Ltd, Singapore (Since Dec. 2006) Phoenix Solar E.P.E., Greece (Since June 2008) Phoenix Solar Phoenix Solar Pty Ltd, L.L.C, Oman Australia (Since Dec. 2009) (Since July 2008) All 100% owned subsidiaries, except Phoenix Solar Singapore (75%) and Phoenix Solar Oman (70%) 5
  6. 6. Product Mix: Thin-film vs. Crystalline Modules Crystalline Thin-film   00MWp sold/installed in 2009 2   72 M€ Turnover 2009 4 6
  7. 7. Table of Contents 1.  Company Profile 2.  BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010 3.  Outlook 2013 7
  8. 8. Cost Drivers for Large Systems (Fixed-Tilted, Ground-Based) – 2005 status 8
  9. 9. Cost Structure Development – Thin Film 2006 (3.9-4.1€/Wp) 2010 (2.4-2.6€/Wp) 9
  10. 10. Cost Structure Development – Crystalline 2006 (3.9-4.2€/Wp) 2010 (3.9-4.2€/Wp) 10
  11. 11. TCO over 20 years – Germany (TF) 2005 2010 11
  12. 12. Table of Contents 1.  Company Profile 2.  BOS & TCO 2005 – 2010 3.  Outlook 2013 12
  13. 13. Development of Prices, TCO by 2013 for large scale power plants   Assuming a 10-11% reduction in FiT in Germany (and no significant change in BOS and TCO, 30 yrs lifetime): 17-18 €-Cent/kWh @ 1.650€/kWp Sales Price… Very hard to imagine at the moment (other markets will pay better prices in 2013….)   In Spain, Sicily, Greece, etc… TCO of about 15 €-Cent/kWh @ 2.100€/kWp Sales Prices (assuming “german” cost structures for project development, implementation and O&M)   TCO of much less than 10 €-Cent/kWh are hard to imagine for Southern Europe (“modules almost for free”) – even beyond 2013 (O&M costs do not really depend on FiT or kWh-prices….) – 5€-Cent/kWh really needed by then?   A completely amortized PV plant can generate at 4-5€-Cent/kWh in Germany and less than 3€-Cent/kWh in Spain (@german cost structure) 13
  14. 14. Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?   Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position   Demand vs. Generation curve – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position   Weaker grids will also promote PV against (conventional or CSP) power generation in large plants – again “advantage” for Southern Europe 14
  15. 15. Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When? 15
  16. 16. Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?   Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position   Demand vs. Generation curve – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position   Weaker grids will also promote PV against (conventional) power generation in large plants – again “advantage” for Southern Europe   The higher the electricity rates the better for PV – a wide variety in Europe (and also even within Southern Europe) from country to country. But also within segments (residential, commercial, industrial) 16
  17. 17. Electricity Rates (Residential) 17
  18. 18. Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?   Solar Insolation – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position   Demand vs. Generation curve – Southern Europe clearly in the pole position   Weaker grids will also promote PV against (conventional) power generation in large plants – again “advantage” for Southern Europe   The higher the electricity rates the better for PV – a wide variety in Europe (and also even within Southern Europe)   Since in most cases (but not always – see Singapore, India, etc..) the electricity rates for residentials are the highest and O&M costs are modest the residential sector may be in a pole position for Grid Parity   But: How to make a teacher to hedge electricity prices in a volatile (sometimes regulated) market for 30 years who enjoyed a fixed FiT regime (20 years) for the past years?   Commercial systems in countries with with an adoption of the US PPA models, high internal consumption of PV electricity and minimum O&M costs are more promising…. 18
  19. 19. Grid Parity in Europe – Where & When?   The most important (or the only relevant) question: Who has a problem which can be solved by PV? Where can add PV value? (since PV will not be a financial vehical only any much like under FiT) - the (residential) consumer? - the commerical/industrial consumer? - the operator of the distribution grid? - the energy “producer”? - the government?   The answer to this questions depends on a couple of constants (which are more or less fixed like solar insolation, etc..) and variables (which change fast such as tax credits, subsidies (also on conventional energy) and may be different from country to country or even inbetween states/regions   Grid Parity is a moving target...   …and will not happen in ppt or xls but only in the real world 19
  20. 20. the sun and only Manfred Bächler Phoenix Solar AG www.phoenixsolar.de m.baechler@phoenixsolar.de

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