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« Unlocking the PV Potential Worldwide:
Contribution of the Sunbelt »
Winfried Hoffmann
VP EPIA
VP&CTO Applied Materials S...
2101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Customer Needs
on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency
€/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W
Source: Fr...
3101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
European Photovoltaic Industry Association
The world's largest industry association devoted t...
4101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Membership
FROM THE WHOLE PV INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN
5101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Historical Market Development by Regions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006...
6101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Competitiveness
Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price
Ref: W. Hoffmann...
7101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
winter
summer
$ct/kWh
hours
60
20
0
40
0 6 12 18 24
Summer
Winter
Standard20,64
6,35
26,78
21...
8101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
1
10
100
1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05
MW accumulated
ASPin$/W
PEF 20%
source: NA...
9101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
SET For 2020 – PV penetration in EU
Baseline Scenario: 4%
130 GW / 154 TWh
Paradigm Shift Sce...
10101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
EPIA Study “Set for 2020” – World
PV Volume Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2...
11101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
0
2000
4000
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CummulatedPVPower[GW]
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12101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
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100000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
inTWh/a
1% of total
10% of total
Total ele...
13101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Development of the Various Market
Segments
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates
0
20
40
60
80...
14101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Background of Study
 Ernesto Macías, President of the Alliance for
Rural Electrification (A...
15101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
EREC – European Renewable Energy CouncilEREC – European Renewable Energy Council
Umbrella or...
16101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a
100% Global End Energy Coverage
ref.: W. Hoffmann, ...
17101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
The World Wide Super Grid
Source:SolarMillenniumAG,Erlangen
excellent good suitable not suit...
Thank you very much!
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Epia Sunbelt Winfried Hoffmann

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Epia Sunbelt Winfried Hoffmann

  1. 1. « Unlocking the PV Potential Worldwide: Contribution of the Sunbelt » Winfried Hoffmann VP EPIA VP&CTO Applied Materials Solar Brussels, 28th October, 2010
  2. 2. 2101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency €/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W Source: Fraunhofer ISE €/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²
  3. 3. 3101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann European Photovoltaic Industry Association The world's largest industry association devoted to the solar PV electricity market 238 members representing 90% of EU PV Industry National Associations Sustainability as governing principle EU and global levels, Members States (RES) Reference information source: market, policy, technology & science Leading edge studies: SET For 2020, PV Sunbelt, Solar Generation 6, ... Conferences: Industry Summit, Market Workshop, Thin Film, CPV, BIPV, ... Founding member of the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), ARE, PV Cycle
  4. 4. 4101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Membership FROM THE WHOLE PV INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN
  5. 5. 5101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Historical Market Development by Regions 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 MarketsizeinGW JAP EU USA ROW ref: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Navigant Consulting and Commerzbank Average growth 45%/yr Average growth 45%/yr
  6. 6. 6101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates (1999)
  7. 7. 7101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann winter summer $ct/kWh hours 60 20 0 40 0 6 12 18 24 Summer Winter Standard20,64 6,35 26,78 21,42 31,92 30 10 20 ¥/kWh hours 1260 2418 Range of Electricity Prices in California ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Seasonal Electricity Prices
  8. 8. 8101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann 1 10 100 1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 MW accumulated ASPin$/W PEF 20% source: NAVIGANT 1980 2005 20081990 2000 Price Experience CurvePrice Experience Curve Driven by TechnologyDriven by Technology  Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm→  Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm→  Efficiency 8% 22%→  Automation Industrial manufacturing  Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW→  Wafer thickness 0,7mm 0,15mm→  Kerf loss 0,5mm 0,10mm→  Efficiency 8% 22%→  Automation Industrial manufacturing  Economy of scale 0,1MW 200MW→ Thin Film Photovoltaic
  9. 9. 9101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann SET For 2020 – PV penetration in EU Baseline Scenario: 4% 130 GW / 154 TWh Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% 390 GW / 462 TWh Share of e-Demand by 2020 Indicative 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 2026 2028 20302008 2014 2020 GW Accelerated Scenario: 6% 200 GW / 230 TWh Cumulative Volume (GW)
  10. 10. 10101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann EPIA Study “Set for 2020” – World PV Volume Scenarios 0 50 100 150 200 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Years WorldwideannualPVinstallations inGWp Baseline Paradigm Shift Source: EPIA, Set for 2020 163 87 CAGR 25%CAGR 25% CAGR 34%CAGR 34% For Reference: 2000 – 2009CAGR 45%CAGR 45% Paradigm shift scenario: 717 GW cumulated worldwide, thereof 390 GW in Europe Baseline scenario: 396 GW cumulated worldwide; thereof 130 GW in Europe Source: EPIA, Set for 2020, 2009
  11. 11. 11101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CummulatedPVPower[GW] 0 200 400 600 800 1000 YearyinstalledPVPower[GW] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AnnualPVGrowthRate RES-thinking 2050 Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050 PV Growth RatePV Growth Rate PV Volume GrowthPV Volume Growth CAGR 2000-2009: 45% Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010 CumulatedPVPower[GW] YearlyInstalledPVPower[GW] Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010
  12. 12. 12101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann 10 100 1000 10000 100000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 inTWh/a 1% of total 10% of total Total electricity production PV electricity production  EU-27  100% target for RES of final energy  All RES sources to contribute  43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)  World (OECD)  80% target for RES of final energy  43% electricity share assumed, too  PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand  Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a  EU-27  100% target for RES of final energy  All RES sources to contribute  43% electricity share assumed (vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)  World (OECD)  80% target for RES of final energy  43% electricity share assumed, too  PV covers about 1/4 of electricity and about 1/6 of final energy demand  Total PV energy supply in 2050: 11k TWh/a PV GrowthPV Growth Assumption for 2050Assumption for 2050 RES-thinking 2050 – World PV Growth Scenario till 2050 Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
  13. 13. 13101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Development of the Various Market Segments Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates 0 20 40 60 80 100 2006 2010 2020 2030 2050 percent(%) EU US RoW on grid RoW off grid
  14. 14. 14101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Background of Study  Ernesto Macías, President of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE), established already in 2006 the concept of this important research  In 2008, EPIA, together with the Alliance for Rural Electrification and the Spanish PV Association commissioned the first phase of the Study to the Strategic Consulting Firm A.T. Kearney (ATK)  In 2010, EPIA, supported by ATK, launched the final phase of the Study and produced a written document to be publicly disseminated
  15. 15. 15101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann EREC – European Renewable Energy CouncilEREC – European Renewable Energy Council Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:  AEBIOMAEBIOM European Biomass Association  EBBEBB European Biodiesel Board  EBIOEBIO European Bioethanol Industry Association  EGECEGEC European Geothermal Energy Council  EPIAEPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association  ESHAESHA European Small Hydropower Association  ESTIFESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation  EUBIAEUBIA European Biomass Industry Association  EWEAEWEA European Wind Energy Association  EURECEUREC AgencyAgency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency Associate members:  EU-OEAEU-OEA European Ocean Energy Association  EREFEREF European Renewable Energy Federation  ESTELAESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association
  16. 16. 16101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a 100% Global End Energy Coverage ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010
  17. 17. 17101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann The World Wide Super Grid Source:SolarMillenniumAG,Erlangen excellent good suitable not suitable …for Solar Thermal Power Plant Super Grid „EUMENA“ 2010 - 2050 not suitable Super Grid „NAFTA“ 2020 - 2060 Super Grid „ASIA“ 2030 - 2070 Super Grid „AUSTRALIA“2040 - 2080 Super Grid „WORLD WIDE“ 2050 - 2100  Electricity  wind off-/ on shore  Solar Thermal Power Plant  PV Solar Electricity  Other Renewables  Hydrogen for special applications  Solar Thermal for heating and cooling 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 3 3 5 ref: W. Hoffmann SCHOTT Solar, Alzenau
  18. 18. Thank you very much!

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