1. A few predictions
from
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2. 1: Flash is NOT dead
Flash will live on thanks to web games and the
slow realisation that HTML5 can’t do it all, yet.
HTML5 will continue to be pushed ahead of
some browser’s capabilities, leaving many people
with “Please Upgrade Your Browser” messages.
Microsoft’s Silverlight (yes it’s still around) will
finally die and be another notch on HTML5’s belt
of smugness.
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3. 2: Engagement > Impressions
With deeper metrics expected from all devices
and platforms, 2012 will mark the moment when
marketers embrace the value of engagement
over borrowed impressions.
Brands will encounter “peak fan” numbers on
social networks and will shift to squeeze as
much out of them rather than grow further.
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4. 3: The year of Android & mobile ads
As Android solidifies its position as the
leading smartphone platform, marketers will
need to shift their thinking from iOS to a
bigger view of "mobile web" as a whole.
Mobile display inventory will pass
internet display, so expect more ad dollars
to be stolen from already, socially starved
publishers.
NYSE Watch: Sell those RIMM shares while you
can but hold on Nokia until their Windows phones
have had a chance to shine.
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5. 4: NFC: The New Kid In Town
QR codes will go into a head to head battle with
NFC and while both will survive for 2012, NFC will
grab all the headlines.
The iPhone 5’s NFC capabilities will open the
flood gates for agencies to start pitching NFC
ideas in. Expect to see ‘Mobile Wallet’ used a
lot more than it should be.
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6. 5: Richer communities
Spotify, TurntableFM and Pandora Presents
are just the start.
Expect to see more platforms in 2012 which
center around communities of people
interacting around/with rich content, all offering
targeted audiences that brands can engage with.
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7. 6: Tablets, Tablets, Tablets
The focus will change to designing for tablet first,
then mobile, then “full-size” web.
Kids may be wishing every magazine was an iPad
or Galaxy Tab, but their parents may prefer the
cost of a souped up e-book such as the Kindle Fire,
Nook or Kobo, driving even greater tablet
penetration and usage.
Expect ‘co-viewing’ across TVs, tablets
and smartphones to be the norm and
‘co-viewing’ to be on every entertainment brief.
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8. 7: Voice is the new UI
With phones programmed to talk back, and the
Kinect for Xbox invading millions of living rooms,
voice recognition has jumped from GPS
devices and robotic voices into the mainstream
of user interfaces.
Expect more and more interfaces that don’t
require a UI - UX Designers, get your flow
diagramming on.
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9. 8: Virtual meets real
Every digital agency in the world is in love with
one idea: the virtual world controlling the real
world.
Agencies will continue to pitch ideas with live-
streaming Arduino-controlled projection-
mapped social experiences and expect this to
continue in 2012 for one reason… it’s cool!
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10. 9: Gamification
The hottest topic of 2011 will continue to sizzle in
2012 but the word has already entered “viral”
territory where it’s being used and abused in
too many briefs.
Expect consolidation of “gamification”
companies such as Bunchball, Badgeville,
Scvngr, etc as clients demand more than just
adding a simple badge to their marketing.
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11. 10: 2012’s Hot or Not?
HOT NOT
NFC Facebook Fan count
3D Printing Augmented Reality
Anonymous Vehicles QR codes
Frictionless Sharing Profitable MMOs
Mobile Wallet Zynga Shares
HTML5 Getting Hacked
Tablets Portable Gaming Devices
Co-Viewing
Facebook’s IPO
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12. How’d we do last year?
2011 Prediction Correct Kinda Way Off
Facebook Deals will become part of every brief X
Gamification will be all the buzz X
Move towards platforms over campaigns X
Anticipated company takeovers (Amazon & Hulu, etc) X
Shift to the cloud (in the US, not Aus) X
Self filtering of social media participation X
Net Neutrality becomes a more public debate X
“Mobile replacing everything” concept not reality X
Microsites re-emerge as Facebook tabs X
2011 = Peak year for buzzword bingo X
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13. Some more digital light reading
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