Chapter 8 Reading Risk
Objectives <ul><li>Describe the differences between dangerous and risky </li></ul><ul><li>List the three influences on ris...
Introduction <ul><li>NFPA states that the ISO shall monitor conditions to determine if they fall within the department’s r...
Firefighter Risk Taking <ul><li>“Firefighting isn’t dangerous, it’s merely risky” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chief Dave Daniels...
Figure 8-1   Firefighters make choices about the dangers they face; that is risk-taking.  (Photo by Keith Muratori.)
Firefighter Risk Taking (con’t.) <ul><li>Action and results orientation can cause injury or death  </li></ul><ul><li>Inste...
Risk-Taking Values <ul><li>IC establishes risk boundaries for working crews </li></ul><ul><li>ISO makes the  value  decisi...
Risk-Taking Values (con’t.) <ul><li>Community expectations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Community expects that firefighters may h...
Risk-Taking Values (con’t.) <ul><li>Fire service standards </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NFPA standards (1500, 1521, 1561) address...
Risk-Taking Values (con’t.) <ul><li>Department values and skills </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider what is commonplace and ac...
Situational Awareness <ul><li>Degree of accuracy by which one’s perception of the current environment mirrors reality </li...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>Factors that reduce situational awareness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient commun...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The Brunacini approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From  Command Safety  by Alan and Nick...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The Brunacini approach (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Situational evaluation factor...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><ul><li>Situational evaluation factors (con’t.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Structur...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>Value-Time-Size method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stewart Rose’s risk-versus-benefit eva...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>Value-Time-Size method (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Case study: a mud slide </li>...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The ISO’s read-risk method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge, sound judgment, experie...
Figure 8-2   Experienced ISOs typically develop their own process for reading risk at incidents.
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The author’s read-risk method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 1: Collect information </l...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The author’s read-risk method (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 2: Analyze </li><...
Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The author’s read-risk method (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 3: Judge risk </l...
Summary <ul><li>ISO risk management at an incident </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Read risks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Firefig...
Summary (con’t.) <ul><li>ISO risk management (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employ situational awareness techniques to hel...
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Chapter 08

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Chapter 08

  1. 1. Chapter 8 Reading Risk
  2. 2. Objectives <ul><li>Describe the differences between dangerous and risky </li></ul><ul><li>List the three influences on risk-taking values </li></ul><ul><li>List the risk management concepts outlined in NFPA standards </li></ul><ul><li>Define situational awareness </li></ul><ul><li>Describe three methods to read risk at an incident </li></ul>
  3. 3. Introduction <ul><li>NFPA states that the ISO shall monitor conditions to determine if they fall within the department’s risk management criteria </li></ul><ul><li>At an incident, the ISO must: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Read the risks taken </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Offer judgment on their acceptability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What is acceptable or unacceptable risk-taking? </li></ul>
  4. 4. Firefighter Risk Taking <ul><li>“Firefighting isn’t dangerous, it’s merely risky” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Chief Dave Daniels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Risks of many specific dangers are well-known </li></ul><ul><li>Learn, train, and equip to understand dangers </li></ul><ul><li>Take steps to avoid, control, or eliminate the dangers </li></ul>
  5. 5. Figure 8-1 Firefighters make choices about the dangers they face; that is risk-taking. (Photo by Keith Muratori.)
  6. 6. Firefighter Risk Taking (con’t.) <ul><li>Action and results orientation can cause injury or death </li></ul><ul><li>Instead of being arbitrarily aggressive, be intellectually aggressive </li></ul><ul><li>Front-load </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding of defined risk-taking values </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased ability to achieve situational awareness </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Risk-Taking Values <ul><li>IC establishes risk boundaries for working crews </li></ul><ul><li>ISO makes the value decision of whether a specific strategy, task, or action is worth the injury </li></ul>
  8. 8. Risk-Taking Values (con’t.) <ul><li>Community expectations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Community expects that firefighters may have to risk their lives to save a life </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Firefighters must: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Balance courage and bravery with prudent judgment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Avoid unnecessary injury </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Media communications have put risk-taking pressure on responders </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Risk-Taking Values (con’t.) <ul><li>Fire service standards </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NFPA standards (1500, 1521, 1561) address risk management concepts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Risk a life to save a known life </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Perform in a practiced manner to save valued property (whose loss will cause harm to the community) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Take no risk to save what’s lost </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Default to defensive when conditions deteriorate quickly </li></ul></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Risk-Taking Values (con’t.) <ul><li>Department values and skills </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider what is commonplace and accepted by the department </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluate whether the situation fits the organization’s “normal” way of handling the incident </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Move creatively towards a safer solution if necessary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recognize when crews are unprepared to perform a skill </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Situational Awareness <ul><li>Degree of accuracy by which one’s perception of the current environment mirrors reality </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Read potential risks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recognize factors that influence the incident outcome </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>Factors that reduce situational awareness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Insufficient communication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fatigue and stress </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Task overload </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Task underload </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Group mind-set and biases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Press-on regardless” philosophy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Degrading operating conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>*Source: Naval Aviation Schools Command, Pensacola, Florida. </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The Brunacini approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From Command Safety by Alan and Nick Brunacini </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gauges to understand hazard severity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Green-yellow-red scale of relative danger to responders </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Originally developed for IC, but can be applied to ISO </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The Brunacini approach (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Situational evaluation factors gauged 1-5 with 5 being the highest risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Overall risk level </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Building size/area </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fire stage </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Penetration distance </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Heat level </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Percentage of involvement </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Smoke conditions </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><ul><li>Situational evaluation factors (con’t.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Structural stability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fire load </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Occupancy hazard </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Residential/commercial stability </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Access/exit issues </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interior arrangement </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aggressiveness </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>IC’s instinct </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Red flags (a list of “historic losers”) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>Value-Time-Size method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stewart Rose’s risk-versus-benefit evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Can something be saved (the value)? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is a safe time for firefighters, based on construction and the location of the fire (the time window)? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is the amount of water needed to extinguish the fire (the size)? </li></ul></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>Value-Time-Size method (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Case study: a mud slide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Value: people or property </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Time: window of opportunity compared to the stability of the mud and structures </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Size: amount of resources that need to be deployed to affect mitigation </li></ul></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The ISO’s read-risk method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge, sound judgment, experience, and wisdom are paramount in making risk decisions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prepare with vicarious learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Learn from the mistakes of others </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Read accident investigation reports generated for firefighter duty-deaths </li></ul></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Figure 8-2 Experienced ISOs typically develop their own process for reading risk at incidents.
  20. 20. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The author’s read-risk method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 1: Collect information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Read the building </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Read the smoke </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Read firefighter effectiveness </li></ul></ul></ul>
  21. 21. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The author’s read-risk method (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 2: Analyze </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Define the principal hazard </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is the window of opportunity? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Are we ahead or behind the power curve? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is really to be gained? </li></ul></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Situational Awareness (con’t.) <ul><li>The author’s read-risk method (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Step 3: Judge risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Are we within the risk-taking values established by the department? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Are we doing all we can to continually reduce risks? </li></ul></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Summary <ul><li>ISO risk management at an incident </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Read risks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Firefighters should be intellectually, not arbitrarily aggressive </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand risk-taking values defined by: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Community expectations </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fire service standards </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fire department values and skills </li></ul></ul></ul>
  24. 24. Summary (con’t.) <ul><li>ISO risk management (con’t.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employ situational awareness techniques to help evaluate risks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Brunacini approach </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Value-time-size thinking </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ISO’s read-risk thinking </li></ul></ul></ul>

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